Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

testicle

Pangea wrote: »

I can safely say that there will be -10 tempertures before the winter is out.

Well that's a safe bet. There already have been -10 temperatures this winter.

Iancar29

BEASTERLY, bit off topic but did u venture up /near to mount Leinster that time?

darol15

dats da job ! the moresnow and ice the better !! C'MON !!!!

patneve2

GFS 12Z still sticking to a nice Northerly Arctic flow, will be interesting to see what ECMWF cooks up this evening.

Musicman2000

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 12Z still sticking to a nice Northerly Arctic flow, will be interesting to see what ECMWF cooks up this evening.

The GFS bring down bitter conditions from the 18 of Dec BUT the ECMWF done a U turn on this mornings run, so its a wait and see could still be a downgrade yet:rolleyes:

Pangea

testicle wrote: »

Well that's a safe bet. There already have been -10 temperatures this winter.

Im not talking about what has past ,I was talking to the troll who said there wont be any more -10 tempertures this winter.

Iancar29

http://www.accuweather.com/video/704630559001/laminate%20floori-europe-gets-hit-by-extreme-cold.asp?channel=vbbastaj

" INSERTS JAWS THEME HERE! "

Its on the way people!!

glimmerman123

Gerry Murphy was just on the six one news and he said there is a chance that rain might spread down across the country from the north and may turn to snow as it moves down. He also said this could happen at the end of next week but because it's a bit away it's not set in stone. Interesting times ahead.

isle of man

Iancar29 wrote: »

http://www.accuweather.com/video/704630559001/laminate%20floori-europe-gets-hit-by-extreme-cold.asp?channel=vbbastaj

" INSERTS JAWS THEME HERE! "

Its on the way people!!

holy hell, hes just said it could be in the top 5-10 coldest decs ever

Musicman2000

isle of man wrote: »

holy hell, hes just said it could be in the top 5-10 coldest decs ever

ECMWF just out, not good at all for cold and snow lovers

Iancar29

isle of man wrote: »

holy hell, hes just said it could be in the top 5-10 coldest decs ever

He must know of boards , and knows we are all DYING for a historic event, .... and he's just teasing us by saying that!

Iancar29

Musicman2000 wrote: »

ECMWF just out, not good at all for cold and snow lovers

I hav more trust in forecasters than models.......

well.... i think i do ! ha

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Iancar29 wrote: »

I hav more trust in forecasters than models.......

well.... i think i do ! ha

I'm saving that in case it bites you in the ass ! Haha

Musicman2000

Musicman2000 wrote: »

ECMWF just out, not good at all for cold and snow lovers

Yes it's useless for cold untill about t-240 which is way outside of the reliable.
So I guess the thaw is likely to go on all next week aswell then.
The GFS is just fodder for speculation,the main nwp outputs are always the ukmo and the ecm.
The UKMO is also crap for cold in Ireland this evening.

Musicman2000

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes it's useless for cold untill about t-240 which is way outside of the reliable.
So I guess the thaw is likely to go on all next week aswell then.
The GFS is just fodder for speculation,the main nwp outputs are always the ukmo and the ecm.
The UKMO is also crap for cold in Ireland this evening.

Yeah the northely that the GFS had is totally scrapped by the ECMF and has an easterly instead, very strange outputs from both

TURRICAN

What's all this MVP or whatever double Dutch?

thetonynator

Iancar29 wrote: »

I hav more trust in forecasters than models.......

well.... i think i do ! ha

well generally the forecasters are using models. . :P

Iancar29

thetonynator wrote: »

well generally the forecasters are using models. . :P

.... Ye but generally we dont hear of State Weather Services been run intirely on computers either ......


....:p

isle of man

charts i just looked at, show the cold coming down from the north around about the 15th which is next wed ish.

and staying for at least a week. not as strong as been posted, but then we are a long way into FI land.

so anybodys guess at what or how long it would go.

but -14 uppers for couple days in scotland, what sort of ground temps could that produce

nacho libre

good old Joe Bastardi. he likes to keep things in perspective, doesn't he:p

he has been wrong so far this winter, so who is to say he's not wrong this time. well he maybe right, but coming out with hyperbolic stuff like that at this early juncture is a bit silly in my opinion.

123balltv

Should I stock up for Christmas now
I'm one of these last minute shoppers is the cold snap coming back before
Christmas.Everyone I meet are commenting on next week being as bad as last week there all panicking :eek:

Musicman2000

123balltv wrote: »

Should I stock up for Christmas now
I'm one of these last minute shoppers is the cold snap coming back before
Christmas.Everyone I meet are commenting on next week being as bad as last week there all panicking :eek:

I wouldnt panic just yet, wait a few more days:) dont think it will be as bad as the last cold snap

v10

Europe Gets Hit by Extreme Cold

123balltv

v10 wrote: »

Europe Gets Hit by Extreme Cold

Cheers :eek: shocking forecast is he usually right?

jarvis

Anyone interested in us all putting a Euro in a pot (PayPal) on a White Xmas and calling on Paddy Power for enhanced odds. Then give any winnings to a charity ?????(Vote for charity)????
These threads had over 700 users at times last week. Wouldn't it be Fvcking class to win the money and also give it to someone in need. Maybe a homeless charity????

I'm serious by the way! There has to be a way for a mod or someone trustworthy to gather the funds!
I'd give more than the Euro but try get everyone to commit one euro!!

What do ye think? Mods?

Standard Odds for Dublin 11/4.

pauldry

Think from early next week until Christmas will be cold and very cold some days with a lot of frosty nights and snow in the North and East, sometimes over the Northwest.

The period of about December 18th - 20th looks interesting countrywide but there is a potential for snow before this in Eastern areas.

However I dont think it will be as cold as the minus 16.4c in Mount Juliet during the last spell. (Could be about -4 to -10 by night)

After Christmas could be milder and the West and South will probably be the mildest places in the period up to Christmas

This is just an opinion so prepare to slate it

jebus, getting chugged on the boards now too .

I was in town today, I counted 17 different people who asked me for money for charity.

personally I think it should just remain a weather thread.

( awaits roars of Scrooge, boo hiss...) :P;)

M.T. Cranium

Folks, use this mild spell and the open conditions (even when it turns a bit colder early next week, it won't be very wintry as such) to get yourselves well prepared, because I think a real blast of winter is coming back with a vengeance around the 16th or 17th, and here's what I just posted on another forum:

---

I think the eventual outcome will be closer to GFS than ECM in the day 8 to 12 time frame, but taken together it shows the potential in this situation for a massive arctic outbreak with a cyclonic disturbance embedded. I would take that as the main theme and given the energy peak at 20-21 Dec, a plausible outcome would be for cold to sweep south, create a vast pool of sub-freezing air mass, then create a storm at the maritime boundary somewhere west of France that would try to move east along the southern boundary of the cold air mass at that time. Could spell snowstorm or even blizzard potential for the UK and Ireland around that time frame, and as for any push back of mild air afterwards, that's likely down to the GFS tendency to try to return to zonal default. The signal is so persistent and so strong (and so well-timed with the retrograde index peak on 20 Dec from my research) that I have to say, word to the wise, there could be a very disruptive period ahead from about Thursday 16th on, use these mild and open days while you have them especially if you're in a location or situation that is prone to travel disruptions.

---

Just to give boards readers some extra thoughts on this, the models at day 8 and beyond can only be taken as general indicators. Some of the details especially the location and intensity of actual storm systems, often come into focus only by about day 4-5. This is why I try to blend my research with the model output in forecasting, because on a statistical basis, the research is actually more likely to verify in gross terms than the model output at day 8 and beyond. Now there's quite a difference in the ECM and GFS at present, but they share the common theme of massive retrogression (that being the westward shift of high pressure next week) and large-scale cold outflow from the arctic towards Europe. If I blend that general foundation and take some of the shaping of each model, then factor in my research data, I see every possibility of winter storm conditions developing some time during the period and most likely around 20-21 Dec but certainly within the larger time frame of 18-23 Dec. As to any milder push back around Christmas, that so far is only based on the inevitable tendency of the GFS to start returning to default values -- you can pretty much sense as a weather watcher that the massive cold outbreak on the 18z run is being slowly dissolved into some artificial zero-anomaly grid, nature wouldn't just bring south all that potent cold air and have it decay over a five day period, it's much more likely to lead to active frontal boundary dramatics of some kind, especially with the major energy peak so conveniently timed.

Mayo Exile

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Folks, use this mild spell and the open conditions (even when it turns a bit colder early next week, it won't be very wintry as such) to get yourselves well prepared, because I think a real blast of winter is coming back with a vengeance around the 16th or 17th, and here's what I just posted on another forum:

---

I think the eventual outcome will be closer to GFS than ECM in the day 8 to 12 time frame, but taken together it shows the potential in this situation for a massive arctic outbreak with a cyclonic disturbance embedded. I would take that as the main theme and given the energy peak at 20-21 Dec, a plausible outcome would be for cold to sweep south, create a vast pool of sub-freezing air mass, then create a storm at the maritime boundary somewhere west of France that would try to move east along the southern boundary of the cold air mass at that time. Could spell snowstorm or even blizzard potential for the UK and Ireland around that time frame, and as for any push back of mild air afterwards, that's likely down to the GFS tendency to try to return to zonal default. The signal is so persistent and so strong (and so well-timed with the retrograde index peak on 20 Dec from my research) that I have to say, word to the wise, there could be a very disruptive period ahead from about Thursday 16th on, use these mild and open days while you have them especially if you're in a location or situation that is prone to travel disruptions.

---

Just to give boards readers some extra thoughts on this, the models at day 8 and beyond can only be taken as general indicators. Some of the details especially the location and intensity of actual storm systems, often come into focus only by about day 4-5. This is why I try to blend my research with the model output in forecasting, because on a statistical basis, the research is actually more likely to verify in gross terms than the model output at day 8 and beyond. Now there's quite a difference in the ECM and GFS at present, but they share the common theme of massive retrogression (that being the westward shift of high pressure next week) and large-scale cold outflow from the arctic towards Europe. If I blend that general foundation and take some of the shaping of each model, then factor in my research data, I see every possibility of winter storm conditions developing some time during the period and most likely around 20-21 Dec but certainly within the larger time frame of 18-23 Dec. As to any milder push back around Christmas, that so far is only based on the inevitable tendency of the GFS to start returning to default values -- you can pretty much sense as a weather watcher that the massive cold outbreak on the 18z run is being slowly dissolved into some artificial zero-anomaly grid, nature wouldn't just bring south all that potent cold air and have it decay over a five day period, it's much more likely to lead to active frontal boundary dramatics of some kind, especially with the major energy peak so conveniently timed.

"Bloody hell" is my initial reaction to that! Do they sell these here then:

123balltv

Cheers M.T I'm kindof looking forward to it
and dreading it at the same time I'm starting Christmas shopping very soon Thanks.