The Big Freeze ( Saturday 9th January 2010 )

Mothman · 09-01-2010 1:53pm

Dewpoints have dropped quite quickly both here and at M2 and air temp is also dropping.
M2 bouy 1200 3.7 Dp-3.1
Ashford 1250 2.9 Dp-4.1

snaps · 09-01-2010 1:55pm

dfbemt wrote: »

Again I ask you where is here ??????

Bad form from a mod.

Its on her avatar!

I stand corrected, it always used to be, but its not now. I apologise

Snowaddict · 09-01-2010 1:55pm

Mothman wrote: »

Dewpoints have dropped quite quickly both here and at M2 and air temp is also dropping.
M2 bouy 1200 3.7 Dp-3.1
Ashford 1250 2.9 Dp-4.1

Thanks for the Update Mothman - that's the arrival of the deep cold pooling taking place.

SA

09-01-2010 1:58pm

Supercell wrote: »

I'd have to go with rain /sleet in Dublin and Bray to be honest. Hopefully the same here but probably not.

I would go for a light sleet/snow start in dublin turning to rain/sleet in places like UCD and th city centre out to ranelagh but still snow sleet in Goatstown Dundrum and up to Ballinteer across to tallagh and similar.
Changing eventually to rain sleet there aswell.
Similar here.
A gradual retreat of the snow to all but the highest ground by monday looks increasingly likely as and when the surface air advection from Britain becomes the warmer continental advection.

We'll see.
I can be wrong.

As for today,the m2 buoy is now down to air 3.7c dp -3.1c

You'd want to be looking at the m5 buoy tomorrow when the south easterly gets going-currently there air 3.8c dp -2.1c

manonmir · 09-01-2010 1:58pm

who would hazard a guess at any more showers bubbling up in the irish sea and hitting dublin today?

Slimity · 09-01-2010 1:58pm

Hi SA,

What's it looking like for East coast Sunday/Monday in your opinion?

Rain/Sleet or snow?

Thanks.

billy the squid · 09-01-2010 1:59pm

RTE news bulletin in 30 minutes.

-7 here. time to break out the BBQ

snowfan · 09-01-2010 2:00pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

Thanks for the Update Mothman - that's the arrival of the deep cold pooling taking place.

SA

Hi Snow Addict, at this stage with the arrival of the deep cold pool now taking place, would you be reasonably confident that the precipiation falling in Dublin tomorrow will be snow?

Would be good to get one final hurrah before a possible thaw kicks in

Also would save ME having egg on their face as they have called snow for the weekend (I am putting my faith in them as they have made correct calls for about 90% of the time during this cold spell).

SnowFan

GP800 · 09-01-2010 2:01pm

grand canal dock in Dublin is like an ice-rink right now, very surreal!
10cm of snow for tomorrow they say

pistolpetes11 · 09-01-2010 2:01pm

SnowAddict when will you be giving your next update on what will be happening ?

At the moment as has been said , you can start to see a gradual breakdown.

Just looking at Dew points you can start to see a slight increase:

Sunday 12pm

Sunday 12am

Monday 12pm

Snow Risk Monday 12pm

manonmir · 09-01-2010 2:02pm

snowfan wrote: »

(I am putting my faith in them as they have made correct calls for about 90% of the time during this cold spell).

ME changed their position to a Sleety/Rainy outlook for tomorrow in Dublin earlier today.

Ludo · 09-01-2010 2:03pm

Ludo wrote: »

Just starting to snow in cork city now.

And snow stopped now again. It did a nice job of taking all the ice off my car though.

flanzer · 09-01-2010 2:03pm

snowfan wrote: »

Also would save ME having egg on their face

And the Dept. of Education!

Snowaddict · 09-01-2010 2:05pm

Just listened to the latest Radio Broadcast.. The only mention of marginality that I heard was the use of Sleet & Snow showers, mentioned becoming widespread and persistent later tomorrow & into Monday.

Still advising of a general covering of between 2CM-5CM in many areas, up to 10CM possible in the East & Southeast into Monday.

In addition, whilst I agree it could become more marginal into Monday, especially along extreme coastal fringes, the latest UKMO Fax charts don't show a huge amount of marginality, with troughs approaching Eastern & Southeastern areas prior to the arrival of the main area of activity:

T+24

T+36

SA

opr · 09-01-2010 2:06pm

It amazing the way every man and his dog can predict the weather in this thread. Just cause your dog ran round the tree 4 times this morning and he did this the last time it snowed so you think it will today does not make it post worthy!!

If your gonna post something in relation to what you think will happen could you at least try and give some proper reasoning. Otherwise you just look like a fool.

Opr

Stevek101 · 09-01-2010 2:09pm

So all this going to rain talk is just bs?

WolfeIRE · 09-01-2010 2:10pm

people. don't be posting to tell us. 'That's it now....All over'. ME are not saying so. As SA just posted there it is far from certain that there will be rainfall in east and south tomorrow. At the moment the indications are that most the country will see snow over the next 36 hours. I think snow will fall during the early days of next week as well based on recent charts. Nothing is set in stone. This set up will change a few more times before the day is out so I reckon those with nervous dispositions should take a break and come back later.

pistolpetes11 · 09-01-2010 2:10pm

flanzer wrote: »

And the Dept. of Education!

It will still be very dangerous out there , even without snow , more rain = more Ice

Musicman2000 · 09-01-2010 2:12pm

In my opinion, I cant see it falling as rain apart from extreme costal fringes, Its still looks like the east and especially the south east will see the heavier falls, Its just changing so fast people dont know whats going on:)

ninebeanrows · 09-01-2010 2:14pm

Lads this maybe marginal from late Sunday onwards along the south coast and southeastern coast and up along the coast to Dublin, but were talking 5 miles from the coast and this could also stay as snow.

There is the potential for alot of snow in the coming 48 hours, and with the wind coming off a subzero Britain and snowfields across Ireland the liklihood of snow increases alot.

Could be 10-15cm totals by Sunday night in Dublin, who knows perhaps alot more. Yes there is a chance (30%) that it could turn to sleet from Sunday afternoon but lets not take the chance.

I would suggest the most marginal place will coastal districts in the southeast perhaps upto 10/15 miles from the coast.

thetonynator · 09-01-2010 2:14pm

Rte radio forecast saying snow for east and south, but only 2-5cm. Basically what they're saying is that what we got today is more than we'll get tomorrow, and also that the thaw will satrt on Monday. Serious downgrade of snow and temp warnings there.

Snowaddict · 09-01-2010 2:14pm

Stevek101 wrote: »

So all this going to rain talk is just bs?

No, it's not BS, it will eventually turn marginal, especially in Coastal fringes. The trouble is, as to when it will turn marginal, that's impossible to predict.

For example, at the very moment that DAM Heights increase above 528 DAM, it's not immediately going to turn to Rain.

In addition, as an ''insurance policy'' if you like, a series of troughs are indicated as approaching the Eastern & Southeastern coasts prior to the arrival of the main area of precipitation. There should be very little marginality associated with these.

It must be stressed, this is an exceptionally complex setup that we are delaing with. Local topographical factors will have a huge influence on the intensity and nature of precipitation.

It should also be noted that the latest Hi-Res guidance indicates precipitation being more widespread than indicated on the ECMWF Evolution.

SA

lucernarian · 09-01-2010 2:17pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

In my opinion, I cant see it falling as rain apart from extreme costal fringes, Its still looks like the east and especially the south east will see the heavier falls, Its just changing so fast people dont know whats going on:)

Ok then, what's your opinion based on?

Edit: does anyone have any links to the hirlam model output? I think it's the dmi.dk website but my navigations around the site have lead to naught.

AlekSmart · 09-01-2010 2:20pm

It must be stressed, this is an exceptionally complex setup that we are delaing with. Local topographical factors will have a huge influence on the intensity and nature of precipitation.

Good thread this.

What are the "Exceptional" factors at play at the moment..or to what extent are they more exceptional than heretofore ?

roryc1 · 09-01-2010 2:20pm

manonmir · 09-01-2010 2:21pm

Didn't mean to pretend I knew anything or trying to be negative. I just misinterpreted the 12.15 weather on RTE One. I'm certain I heard him say Rain/Sleet into the east coast turning to snow inland. That's only one forecast and yes everything seems to be up in the air. I was only saying what I heard on the news, I didn't mean to come across like a know it all. Back to reading and less reporting/speculation from me

Snowaddict · 09-01-2010 2:22pm

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Ok then, what's your opinion based on?

What's your opinion based on TBC? Please give us a run down of your expectations on the evolution from later tonight.

As I've stressed above this is a very complex evolution as you very well know. At least two times over this past 10 Day period you have stated that you felt there wouldn't be significant or widespread snowfall - Most notable occasion regarding the GLH. Yet, many areas picked up several inches of snowfall - significant accumulations of up to 30CM on High Ground.

It may well turn marginal, we are all very well aware of that. It's impossible to predict exactly when as I have highlighted above.

I look forward to your own detailed analysis on this.

SA

pistolpetes11 · 09-01-2010 2:23pm

AlekSmart wrote: »

Good thread this.

What are the "Exceptional" factors at play at the moment..or to what extent are they more exceptional than heretofore ?

Read through snowadditcs/Mt's post and you will see

I have gone from the record of -11.3 last night to -2.4 now

I wonder will I get a thrid Ice day in a row ? hope so , looks amazing out there.

Stevek101 · 09-01-2010 2:23pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

No, it's not BS, it will eventually turn marginal, especially in Coastal fringes. The trouble is, as to when it will turn marginal, that's impossible to predict.

For example, at the very moment that DAM Heights increase above 528 DAM, it's not immediately going to turn to Rain.

In addition, as an ''insurance policy'' if you like, a series of troughs are indicated as approaching the Eastern & Southeastern coasts prior to the arrival of the main area of precipitation. There should be very little marginality associated with these.

It must be stressed, this is an exceptionally complex setup that we are delaing with. Local topographical factors will have a huge influence on the intensity and nature of precipitation.

It should also be noted that the latest Hi-Res guidance indicates precipitation being more widespread than indicated on the ECMWF Evolution.

SA

I get that its extremely complex. I've been following these cold thread spells for weeks now! Nothing is ever certain.

I was just getting fed up with one line posts saying game over and such... I prefer reading through the charts and peoples opinions of them.

Keep up the good work!

roryc1 · 09-01-2010 2:24pm

Looks like a few showers popping up on the Irish sea

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 09-01-2010 2:24pm

Looks like some showers developing off the isle of man !

lucernarian · 09-01-2010 2:26pm

I don't remember giving an opinion on tomorrow night, apart from a statement saying it will be probably rain/sleet/snow east of the M1/M11 corridor. That was a rule of thumb at that. And from Sunday afternoon onwards. This was based on GFS dewpoint forecasts for the time period, from the 12z run I think?

On the rare occasion I give an forecasting prediction without any model or current synoptics backup, I call them a hunch:)

Also, who in their right minds would say that mountainous regions in the east were not going to get heavy snowfall? I've always downplayed predictions for low lying areas. GLH = Greenland High? I think that simply determined the blocking of what was going on. What incident was that?

I don't know why you're going on the attack with that, I simply asked someone what they had their opinion based on. What's wrong about that?? I'd actually like to know, because something that increases the chances of snow would be a positive for me.

Edit: I hope that clarifies what I was getting at. If anyone wants to bicker or try to point out where I was wrong, do it by pm please:(

Snowaddict · 09-01-2010 2:27pm

thetonynator wrote: »

Rte radio forecast saying snow for east and south, but only 2-5cm. Basically what they're saying is that what we got today is more than we'll get tomorrow, and also that the thaw will satrt on Monday. Serious downgrade of snow and temp warnings there.

That's misrepresentation thetonynator

I feel like not contributing to this thread anymore, it's just getting too weary.

That is not what they said at all. They said, they expect 2CM - 5CM widely with up to 10CM possible in some areas, most especially in the East and Southeast.

I'm probably coming across as aggressive but there is far too much hyperbole on here. Can people just remain calm and take it as it comes.

To those who are hoping for snowfall, I hope you get to see it.

rainbowdrop · 09-01-2010 2:27pm

Been gently snowing in Co Limerick (between Kilmallock and Charleville) for the last hour. A light dusting on the ground now, and the sky looks FULL of snow:D
It's the longest snow shower we've had since this cold snap began.......

Long may it continue

BraziliaNZ · 09-01-2010 2:28pm

not sure if it's been said already, but the "Dublin needs to Man Up" thread got a mention in the Indo today!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 09-01-2010 2:28pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

That's misrepresentation thetonynator

I feel like not contributing to this thread anymore, it's just getting too weary.

That is not what they said at all. They said, they expect 2CM - 5CM widely with up to 10CM possible in some areas, most especially in the East and Southeast.

I'm probably coming across as aggressive but there is far too much hyperbole on here. Can people just remain calm and take it as it comes.

To those who are hoping for snowfall, I hope you get to see it.

Totally agree with you there.

Wait and see and enjoy if you get it, if not its not the end of the world.

09-01-2010 2:28pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

No, it's not BS, it will eventually turn marginal, especially in Coastal fringes. The trouble is, as to when it will turn marginal, that's impossible to predict.

For example, at the very moment that DAM Heights increase above 528 DAM, it's not immediately going to turn to Rain.

In addition, as an ''insurance policy'' if you like, a series of troughs are indicated as approaching the Eastern & Southeastern coasts prior to the arrival of the main area of precipitation. There should be very little marginality associated with these.

It must be stressed, this is an exceptionally complex setup that we are delaing with. Local topographical factors will have a huge influence on the intensity and nature of precipitation.

It should also be noted that the latest Hi-Res guidance indicates precipitation being more widespread than indicated on the ECMWF Evolution.

SA

Just in addition to this and what I gave as a brief thought earlier.
I'd expect all precip ahead of the front to be fully snow.
The problem after that is very clearly visible on the fax charts above in that it's a warm front and the air spilling in to the front mixing with the British frozen air is coming from the flow behind the front sourced round the black sea somewhere.

Thats going to be very low dewpoint air by the time it's passed over Germany and routed over to us.

I'm not fully convinced myself to be honest that this will turn as quickly to rain as it in theory should.

An air temp at the m2 buy and the m5 buoy under 4c and with neg dew points isn't going to change much in a hurry with that kind of surface flow.

Incidently the mixing of the cold and warmer air should enhance precip but that will be tempered by the high pressure.
It's a whole now cast and a difficult one to call.

Am I starting to sound like the Eagle?

miseagustusa · 09-01-2010 2:29pm

when you say sleet/rain for some coastal regions is gorey/arklow included in this or do you mean south wexford?

GavinH · 09-01-2010 2:29pm

light snow in my part of Cork, Between Ballincollig and Macroom

irish1967 · 09-01-2010 2:30pm

Snowing now. Light fluffy stuffy. Temp -1.5

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 09-01-2010 2:30pm

News and Weather just starting on RTE

opr · 09-01-2010 2:31pm

Question for the weather heads that I have been thinking about. These are just random thoughts and hold no technical bases so sorry if they come across as stupid.

Basically when models are analysing the current situation I am sure they draw on past comparable events. Given the fact this cold spell has been something we haven't seen the like of could they be off in their analysis of the breakdown.

In the past when warmer air would have been trying to break through it would have done so fairly easily but this time the cold system has had a much longer and tighter grip than usual.

I am thinking in term of if it is going to war normally it has a few days to prepare but this time its had two whole weeks and has been gathering the troops all across Europe and will be a hell of a lot stronger for the battle ahead

??

Opr

pistolpetes11 · 09-01-2010 2:31pm

Snowaddict wrote: »

That's misrepresentation thetonynator

I feel like not contributing to this thread anymore, it's just getting too weary.

That is not what they said at all. They said, they expect 2CM - 5CM widely with up to 10CM possible in some areas, most especially in the East and Southeast.

I'm probably coming across as aggressive but there is far too much hyperbole on here. Can people just remain calm and take it as it comes.

To those who are hoping for snowfall, I hope you get to see it.

Hopefully you will keep posting , you reports have made for excellent reading .

People need to actually listen properly when listening / looking at the forecasts .

As soon as the word rain/sleet is used people come on here shouting the odds without listening to the full forecast.