Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

MissMoc · 07-01-2016 10:55pm

Thanks you WheatenBriar - I most certainly will be staying tuned!

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Its not nailed yet.
It is looking likely it will arrive in stages starting mid next week, with ever increasing colder stages after that in bursts maybe coming and going,if you follow?
Really you'll just need to stay tuned

Villain · 07-01-2016 10:56pm

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

What did she say??

Just mentioned colder weather looks to be on the way for next week, stark contrast to the earlier Met.ie forecast but that would have been based on earlier charts

WheatenBriar · 07-01-2016 10:59pm

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

What did she say??

Well guess what, She flicked her hair back,and said all the signals are for colder weather well into next week
Its about at the limit of what could responsibly be said by Glasnevin at this stage

Eugene Norman · 07-01-2016 11:05pm

I have 6 weather apps. Including met Eirean and BBC app and they are all over the place regarding next week.

Different models I assume.

StewartGriffin · 07-01-2016 11:07pm

Gonzo wrote: »

as great as 2010 was, it was totally amateur hour stuff compared to the great blizzard of 1982!

RobertKK wrote: »

1982 was just a molehill compared to 1947...according to the records.

1947 (+35 years) 1982 (+35 years) 2017. Looks like its coming a year early lads.

Easterly Beasterly · 07-01-2016 11:10pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Well guess what, She flicked her hair back,and said all the signals are for colder weather well into next week
Its about at the limit of what could responsibly be said by Glasnevin at this stage

HaHa.. along with all the other variables we have the IOM Shadow to contend with

I suprised it hasnt been mentioned yet, there was a Bray guy on here who had a serious beef, I think his username was Calibos.. is he still around? I remember it particularly well, I lived in Bray in 2010 we did quite well, my mother lives in Shankill closer to the sea and did much better, that's how localised the streamers were

I'm closer to you now WB, I'm in Newcastle.. I hope they get this far!!!

Oneiric 3 · 07-01-2016 11:11pm

WheatenBriar wrote: »

I disagree with some of what you're saying, for example, where was the flow that gave Villian his monumental snowfall in Tullow in January 2010 and subsequent incredible low night time temps? Not the western part of the north Atlantic, that was blocked, the flow at each of the crucial snowy times flowed down closer to Scotland and Norway than the mid Atlantic

Where I agree is the Artic source

No point looking at the December mean for Dec 2010 to be honest because there were a lot of northwesterlies in that month and returning Atlantic air at times when that high pressure was out west too,all in the months mean aswell as Greenland express northwesterlies
What we need to know is what route it took to get here that preserved most of its cold and a tour of the western north Atlantic was not it
Same story in Jan 87
I'm not saying theres never a maritime influence, of course there is,Im just saying where I think the least damaging maratime route is

If you look at the past records, not just Villians, you find that more likely than not the lowest winter temps will have occurred under a northerly source airflow. Doesn't really matter what route this air mass takes. the big snows here locally both in 2010 and 2000, for example, came more from NW than NE, but the source was still Arctic. This is my point.

Knine · 07-01-2016 11:22pm

Mech1 wrote: »

Ahh 1982,,, I was a Belfast kid competing in the Aer Lingus young scientist competition. I got 2nd place in my category and won 50 Punts!!! We where snowed in at the Montrose hotel for 3 days, Bring it on again!!! Best time of my life almost.

Ha I competed in that too. We won an award & then somehow ended up snowed in, in the old cinema on Middle Abbey Street. Good times!

snowstorm445 · 07-01-2016 11:26pm

18z GFS looks very messed up. ECM is great though, no doubt about it.

There is a rather worrying trend towards delaying the deep cold from reaching us, back from the start of next week yesterday to about mid week today. A very familiar pattern, hoping it doesn't continue.

WheatenBriar · 07-01-2016 11:29pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

If you look at the past records, not just Villians, you find that more likely than not the lowest winter temps will have occurred under a northerly source airflow. Doesn't really matter what route this air mass takes. the big snows here locally both in 2010 and 2000, for example, came more from NW than NE, but the source was still Arctic. This is my point.

I agree with your point about the artic,even the 1982 cold was sourced there,(via Europe) but disagree that the route it takes is unimportant
Not saying, serious snow doesn't flow in from the west with an artic flow down the centre of it, of course it does and has but the pesky Atlantic becomes boss and shunts it away too quickly in my experience

WheatenBriar · 07-01-2016 11:31pm

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

HaHa.. along with all the other variables we have the IOM Shadow to contend with I suprised it hasnt been mentioned yet, there was a Bray guy on here who had a serious beef, I think his username was Calibos.. is he still around? I remember it particularly well, I lived in Bray in 2010 we did quite well, my mother lives in Shankill closer to the sea and did much better, that's how localised the streamers were

I'm closer to you now WB, I'm in Newcastle.. I hope they get this far!!!

Yeah Calibos is around still

Villain · 07-01-2016 11:35pm

GFS 18z pushes things back but it's the pub run

ninebeanrows · 07-01-2016 11:35pm

I've come to check that people aren't losing it over the 18z GFS.

Best taken with a pinch of salt, and hardly an awful solution either!

10-20% EC Ensembles go for similar troughing to our south-west and tat ridge over France. So not to be ignored as a possiblity, but certainly not favoured.

snowstorm445 · 07-01-2016 11:39pm

I'm always one to be cautious but I have to say the level of handwringing on Netweather after a poor run is always something else, you'd swear it spell doom for the rest of the winter the way some seem to react. There seems to be a bit of a patience to Boards posters which Netweather lacks.

Be interesting to see if this run receives support from the ensemble, the last one certainly didn't.

Easterly Beasterly · 07-01-2016 11:39pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

I've come to check that people aren't losing it over the 18z GFS.

Best taken with a pinch of salt, and hardly an awful solution either!

10-20% EC Ensembles go for similar troughing to our south-west and tat ridge over France. So not to be ignored as a possiblity, but certainly not favoured.

I just popped over to Netweather. Holy Moly, someone needs to check on a couple of those guys to make sure they are ok, all after one run.

jack o shea · 07-01-2016 11:39pm

so its over before it starts then?

Padster90s · 07-01-2016 11:40pm

Enjoy guys! I hope it comes ☺Here in Limerick snow is exceptionally rare so not holding out much hope for the white gold! Luckily we do still get the cold so we probably won't be totally left out of the mix

Smidge · 07-01-2016 11:45pm

Mech1 wrote: »

Ahh 1982,,, I was a Belfast kid competing in the Aer Lingus young scientist competition. I got 2nd place in my category and won 50 Punts!!! We where snowed in at the Montrose hotel for 3 days, Bring it on again!!! Best time of my life almost.

50 punts in 82 was a fair few quid!!!

I was 6 in 82 and remember being nearly up to my neck in the snow

Musicman2000 · 07-01-2016 11:46pm

Just had a flick threw the fax charts the UKMO are going with their own raw output.

kittyn · 07-01-2016 11:51pm

Smidge wrote: »

50 punts in 82 was a fair few quid!!!

I was 6 in 82 and remember being nearly up to my neck in the snow

Haha Smidge snap wasn't it just heaven ....... My first real snow experience

Mafra · 07-01-2016 11:53pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Just had a flick threw the fax charts the UKMO are going with their own raw output.

What does that mean please?

sryanbruen · 07-01-2016 11:54pm

The BBC are now saying that though there is 100% colder weather on the way, there is a '?' about the end of next week that if wetter weather will return

snowgal · 08-01-2016 12:07am

Come on snow, come on snow, come on snow, come on!!! That is all I can say

WheatenBriar · 08-01-2016 12:07am

Mafra wrote: »

What does that mean please?

The weather forecasters at the UK met office are relying mostly on their own computer model for their latest forecasting charts as opposed to other computer models
Raw means,its based entirely on the computers output, there is no human opinion changing it
Often the models disagree on an outcome and the forecasters guess at a compromise outcome blended from all models
Sometimes they run with just one,in this case their own, either out of gut instinct from their considerable experience or because of information they have available that we dont

Mafra · 08-01-2016 12:11am

WheatenBriar wrote: »

The weather forecasters at the UK met office are relying mostly on their own computer model for their latest forecasting charts as opposed to other computer models
Raw means,its based entirely on the computers output, there is no human opinion changing it
Often the models disagree on an outcome and the forecasters guess at a compromise outcome blended from all models
Sometimes they run with just one,in this case their own, either out of gut instinct from their considerable experience or because of information they have available that we dont

Thank you kindly for the great explanation! ðŸ‘

TeaCup2 · 08-01-2016 12:14am

RobertKK wrote: »

1982 was just a molehill compared to 1947...according to the records.

And 1947 was relatively mild before the snow started in late January. Before the snow started it was rainy and stormy.

Just sayin'......

pedigree 6 · 08-01-2016 12:16am

Completely clueless when it comes to the charts but I saw this guy's take on the whole thing. He says this cold spell is temporary but a return to cold later on. Maybe he's a god maybe he's the antichrist but here he is.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Mech1 · 08-01-2016 12:16am

Knine wrote: »

Ha I competed in that too. We won an award & then somehow ended up snowed in, in the old cinema on Middle Abbey Street. Good times!

You can find your entry in here so, http://issuu.com/bt_young_scientist_archive/docs/1982_young_scientists_aer_lingus click sideways on main graphic.

WheatenBriar · 08-01-2016 12:22am

pedigree 6 wrote: »

Completely clueless when it comes to the charts but I saw this guy's take on the whole thing. He says this cold spell is temporary but a return to cold later on. Maybe he's a god maybe he's the antichrist but here he is.
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Aye Simon Keeling is one of the good guys,he's right,this may well come and go in stages

maquiladora · 08-01-2016 1:18am

Well...let's see what the 0Z runs bring in the morning.

waterways · 08-01-2016 1:51am

The 0Z runs bring no hot coffee at breakfast.

Calibos · 08-01-2016 4:45am

Howya Lads. Whats the Craic? Did someone mention Snow??

Easterly Beasterly · 08-01-2016 5:00am

Ah there you are.. pull up a seat. This feels like a school reunion

I'm off work this week so said I'd stay up for the morning runs. I went back over the 2010 thread earlier and guess what, there was GFS wobbles 4/5 days prior to that spell. Met Eireann only really came on board 5/6 days ahead and their updates started with mostly dry but cold with some wintry showers. I had in my head that it was all perfect running up to that event.

I'm not saying the same will happen but it was interesting looking at the similarities.

Autonomous Cowherd · 08-01-2016 5:44am

Everyone speaks of 2010, but no one seems to mention 2009, or was it a dream I had..... Both years we were snowed in solid for 27 days in the NW hills, our narrow, windy, up and down roads impassable except by tractor. Though it was in 2010 that the cold went so deep that we amused ourselves in the bitter freeze of night by stepping out onto the patio to hear the lake make loud gunshot sounds as the ice froze more solid. The first year we had not swept the first days snow from around the house before the freeze came and made an ice rink of it and walking outside was treacherous. The second year we were not caught out that way, I can tell you

Those 2 peaceful months we were forced to take a step back out of time, in consecutive years, are blissful memories. I am glad to have this thread, so I can make suitable preps

Thanks all.

JanuarySnowstor · 08-01-2016 5:51am

Can we move on with what the models are saying!
Big differences this morning between the gfs and ukmo.
Gfs too far West and ukmo too far east.
Something in between would be a good result.
Let's see what ecm brings....

snaps · 08-01-2016 6:36am

Yes the gfs is a stinker. Just brings Atlantic storms back again.

If MT is right about GEM being very good, that's gone even worse. Even floods most of Europe with summer temperatures.

Graces7 · 08-01-2016 7:16am

Bigus wrote: »

It gets people out of their normal routine and Makes them talk to and engage with neighbours or people they never deal with in a positive way, or God forbid solve a few problems have to and think outside the box !

I think it's only since Internet forums that the news media now put a bit of reporting on the positive aspects of snow unlike the baa humbug of previous years.

I hope we don't "git frostbit"

Rose coloured glasses! Normal routine is great.

Graces7 · 08-01-2016 7:26am

Nearly asleep here catching up with this as my fingers turn purple with the cold..Thanks for the snooze! Bitter cold here. Planning out as at least the car will be warm.

force eleven · 08-01-2016 7:48am

Latest charts backing off from deep cold. Looks very uncertain post 120hrs out so as they say, more model runs needed....

maquiladora · 08-01-2016 7:56am

Oh dear....starting to look more like a cold snap or just a more seasonal winter mix rather than a significant cold spell. Models moving in the wrong direction with further downgrades possible. There could still be snowfall episodes in such a setup, but more likely northern/hills or snow turning to rain type of events.

On a lighter note, this might be the first 20+ thread for a cold spell that never really existed.

:p

rickdangerouss · 08-01-2016 7:58am

It was a nice dream

Rock Lesnar · 08-01-2016 8:10am

maquiladora wrote: »

Oh dear....starting to look more like a cold snap or just a more seasonal winter mix rather than a significant cold spell. Models moving in the wrong direction with further downgrades possible. There could still be snowfall episodes in such a setup, but more likely northern/hills or snow turning to rain type of events.

On a lighter note, this might be the first 20+ thread for a cold spell that never really existed. :p

does it look dry at least Maq?

maquiladora · 08-01-2016 8:15am

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

does it look dry at least Maq?

ECM doesn't show any heavy precipitation until the 16th, and then this could be heavy snow rather than rain for northern parts/high ground. But it's a long way off.

snaps · 08-01-2016 8:16am

It was always in FI anyway. I think this thread jumped the gun.

I thought we had all agreed years ago that anything over +72hrs was very uncertain?

Nabber · 08-01-2016 8:23am

Oh dear

Clonmel1000 · 08-01-2016 8:39am

snaps wrote: »

It was always in FI anyway. I think this thread jumped the gun.

I thought we had all agreed years ago that anything over +72hrs was very uncertain?

Ya think???

Some of the stuff from the senior commentators here has been interesting and informative other stiff posted has been hilarious bordering on ludicrous.

kstand · 08-01-2016 8:46am

I think at this stage (and I'd put money on it being the case for the rest of the winter, if you could call it that) the very best anyone can hope for is a couple of hailstones or cold rain.

WheatenBriar · 08-01-2016 9:21am

kstand wrote: »

I think at this stage (and I'd put money on it being the case for the rest of the winter, if you could call it that) the very best anyone can hope for is a couple of hailstones or cold rain.

You can hope for whatever you like but I wouldn't be putting money on it

As for the last two runs,patience pedwans,patience,
Can ye not just see that gfs outcome is ridiculous, when was the last time an azores low barrelled into Ireland like that with a jetstream up to the day before consistently modelling the jet south?
If this is going to happen (it's never been nailed on just likely or very likely) it was always going to be in stages,so yeah can we have patience pedwans please patience?

Larbre34 · 08-01-2016 9:26am

Shut this one down, its a bust.

If we get any weather warnings next week it will be for icy patches on untreated surfaces in sheltered areas. Nothing more to see.

kstand · 08-01-2016 9:30am

WheatenBriar wrote: »

You can hope for whatever you like but I wouldn't be putting money on it

As for the last two runs,patience pedwans,patience,
Can ye not just see that gfs outcome is ridiculous, when was the last time an azores low barrelled into Ireland like that with a jetstream up to the day before consistently modelling the jet south?
If this is going to happen (it's never been nailed on just likely or very likely) it was always going to be in stages,so yeah can we have patience pedwans please patience?

ECM gone the same way. Cold rain, thats as good as it gets.

Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

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