FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

YanSno · 14-03-2018 10:56pm

Latest 18z gfs has the cold air bit more to the north west

Kermit.de.frog · 14-03-2018 11:09pm

Yes, another slight nudge north. Further north the better (or worse depending on perspective).

nacho libre · 14-03-2018 11:49pm

Well, well, i thought this was done dusted. A great surprise to see these northward corrections. Surely it cant up grade any further, can it?
It could be snowy at Twickenham on Saturday afternoon!

Kermit.de.frog · 15-03-2018 12:39am

Quite a few GFS ensemble member runs take things a bit further north. Something like this would see heavy convective snow showers fairly widespread.

Mount Vesuvius · 15-03-2018 5:37am

UKMO is back in the room. Big upgrade. ICON aslo feeling the love. GFS still feeling it too but not there yet

Rebelbrowser · 15-03-2018 6:11am

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

UKMO is back in the room. Big upgrade. ICON aslo feeling the love. GFS still feeling it too but not there yet

yeah, change in UKMO from 2 runs ago is huge. GEM is great too. Sunday and Monday now looking similar to the Tuesday evening to Thursday morning bit of last Easterly. Suddenly feeling pretty smug about telling everyone about this days ago! Think met.ie are going to have to start putting out an advisory for cold (certainly) and snow (potential now for appreciable snow).

nacho libre · 15-03-2018 6:55am

E155AD31-D098-42B1-8218-3D8D165E13BD.png.f9ab7f4ae19bc683dc7121243aa79952.png

I thought i'd never experience temperatures like this again in March:eek: Even if they end up being a degree or two higher, absolutely incredible stuff.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-03-2018 10:39am

GFS in northward shift. Trending toward UKMO/ECM. Not there yet.

Heavier showers and darn cold though, the cap being lifted from the cloud tops.

gfs-1-66.png?6

Daz_ · 15-03-2018 11:08am

Hi guys . What would the main driver or cause for this to shift north as its doing ? Is it to do with the conditions south or north of it ?

prosaic · 15-03-2018 1:35pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

GFS in northward shift...

That image looks like a clawed paw from the east

sryanbruen · 15-03-2018 6:43pm

GFS 12z jet stream tracks are interesting, no signs of it returning to normal including the furthest into FI bar a temporary southwesterly later next week. At these stages of the time of year, these abnormal jet stream tracks become more of a nuisance than anything.

gabeeg · 15-03-2018 7:25pm

Possible reload on the way?

ECM0-120.GIF?15-0

Daz_ · 15-03-2018 7:30pm

Daz_ wrote: »

Hi guys . What would the main driver or cause for this to shift north as its doing ? Is it to do with the conditions south or north of it ?

Friendly bunch

Kermit.de.frog · 15-03-2018 7:51pm

Daz_ wrote: »

Friendly bunch

Sorry, did not see your question:)

It's very broad. I'll endeavor to answer later but it's not a north or south thing. It's a lot to do with the jet stream having buckled recently.

The HP just to our north is under pressure to sink from low pressure coming down in to Scandinavia. Low pressure in Europe is preventing it from sinking because the southern arm of the jet stream is strong in to the Med.

We often get disturbances that manifest themselves in deep cold pools at altitude coming out of the continent that flow east to west under the high pressure. This acts as a prop for the high pressure to remain to the north.

However, as pressure and instability deepens the area of low pressure propping up the High underneath expands and instead of merely being a prop it shunts the high pressure north - but only temporarily.

It's like a tug of war.

I'll come back to this as it deserves a more fulsome answer.

Daz_ · 15-03-2018 8:54pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sorry, did not see your question:)

It's very broad. I'll endeavor to answer later but it's not a north or south thing. It's a lot to do with the jet stream having buckled recently.

The HP just to our north is under pressure to sink from low pressure coming down in to Scandinavia. Low pressure in Europe is preventing it from sinking because the southern arm of the jet stream is strong in to the Med.

We often get disturbances that manifest themselves in deep cold pools at altitude coming out of the continent that flow east to west under the high pressure. This acts as a prop for the high pressure to remain to the north.

However, as pressure and instability deepens the area of low pressure propping up the High underneath expands and instead of merely being a prop it shunts the high pressure north - but only temporarily.

It's like a tug of war.

I'll come back to this as it deserves a more fulsome answer.

Thanks Kermit . Having even that bit of background in what causes these changes is very interesting !

nacho libre · 15-03-2018 11:46pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS 12z jet stream tracks are interesting, no signs of it returning to normal including the furthest into FI bar a temporary southwesterly later next week. At these stages of the time of year, these abnormal jet stream tracks become more of a nuisance than anything.

The only nuisance is the the high sinking

if only it could retrogress to Greenland and stay there we'd get a nice northerly or northeasterly to see out in March. A Northerly, as you know, at this time of year can deliver.

I think the Austrian forecaster who said we will see cold spells alternating with milder periods well into April is correct. So more snow is likely, but i think after this weekend we won't see the depth of cold again until next winter. I would love to be wrong about that, though.

NMB · 16-03-2018 12:08am

Artic Air being dragged in. Will we have precipitation?? Yes. Oh yes we will no doubt ... based in Dublin cc....

nacho libre · 16-03-2018 3:31am

I must say the Icon model has done very well in the run up to this cold spell and it did quite well in the last one. It never waivered in showing a snowy scenario, when other models had the core of the cold going too far south.

nacho libre · 16-03-2018 3:50am

A Greenland express incoming in FI, anyone?? Would this be the effects of the zonal wind reversal showing up?

but before that, the son of the beast is coming: ezgif-2-f81b1767e5.gif.068d9a97f368fba08a797b53c7234bc4.gif

ezgif-2-f81b1767e5.gif.068d9a97f368fba08a797b53c7234bc4.gif

BLIZZARD7 · 16-03-2018 3:50pm

A very cold northerly to see out the month? Wouldn't surprise me

gfs-1-336.png?6

nacho libre · 16-03-2018 9:05pm

yes blizzard7, this will do nicely to see out the month.

06_336_ukthickness.png.359e703d810ad7e35546da26c6e58569.png

In the meantime hirlam, which tends to be accurate, is showing a fair bit of snow around this weekend:D

nacho libre · 16-03-2018 9:29pm

And ECM is hinting at beast no 3 in time for Easter:D

M.T. Cranium's holiday might have to be postponed further:pac:

sryanbruen · 17-03-2018 6:09pm

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

A very cold northerly to see out the month? Wouldn't surprise me

GFS 12z a day later....

https://twitter.com/TWOweather/status/975056134624153602

sryanbruen · 18-03-2018 11:50am

GFS 06z today still continues that northerly theme for the end of March.

nacho libre · 18-03-2018 5:16pm

Yeah they have been showing it consistently now for the last few runs.
Icon, meanwhile, hints at a possible visit from the son of the son of the beast

Whatever happens, it looks like we are going to stay on the cool side for a while yet. As you mentioned before the Atlantic tends to go quiet anyway in April

gabeeg · 18-03-2018 5:25pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah they have been showing it consistently now for the last few runs.
Icon, meanwhile, hints at a possible visit from the son of the son of the beast

Whatever happens, it looks like we are going to stay on the cool side for a while yet. As you mentioned before the Atlantic tends to go quiet anyway in April

Yep. And for what it's worth, the CFS shows no real sign of Spring all the way out until May now.

snowstorm445 · 18-03-2018 5:33pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Yep. And for what it's worth, the CFS shows no real sign of Spring all the way out until May now.

In fairness that model is known to change its mind with every new run. It’ll almost certainly show raging southwesterlies on the next one. Take it with a pinch of salt. :P

gabeeg · 18-03-2018 5:40pm

snowstorm445 wrote: »

In fairness that model is known to change its mind with every new run. It’ll almost certainly show raging southwesterlies on the next one. Take it with a pinch of salt. :P

I'm taking it with a hell of a lot more salt than a pinch.

I've just been checking it lately for any signs of Spring, and so far it has consistently said no chance.
That said, it may be completely useless. Especially at those ranges.

gabeeg · 18-03-2018 5:50pm

GFS still has that Northerly

gfs-0-276.png?12

gabeeg · 18-03-2018 5:52pm

A lot of moisture around too

gfs-2-276.png?12

nacho libre · 18-03-2018 6:16pm

Well i think the only scientific conclusions that can be reached from these cold spells is (a) Mother arctic Russia love us(b) Sryan and others are being punished for telling the snow to go away:D
The lesson surely to be learned from all this is never ever turn your back on snow:p

SleetAndSnow · 18-03-2018 10:02pm

ECM 12Z at 240 hr looks to be showing a storm. Staying cold too if I read these correctly.

Not as cold uppers though

SleetAndSnow · 19-03-2018 12:02am

Could be an bitter Easter Sunday! Hopefully its not an early April Fools :P

18_336_preciptype.png.72c56826866f814a6652a51c2eb8a5da.png

18_324_ukthickness850.png.f11fae71998f50d88a9a0d7e062e9d84.png

18_324_ukthickness.png.2da62a8c7b4c3d22cefa2b7dfd3f4122.png

(Thanks Frosty at Netweather!)

typhoony · 19-03-2018 12:23pm

the easter northerly still being shown, not in the reliable timeframe, not sure the models are handling the transition from cold to mild, gfs wants to create a ficticious cutoff low over Ireland at the weekend, i'd be fairly certain that won't happen, the jet is still too far south but won't take much to shift it north but the azores high needs to return before that can happen

Artane2002 · 19-03-2018 12:36pm

typhoony wrote: »

the easter northerly still being shown, not in the reliable timeframe, not sure the models are handling the transition from cold to mild, gfs wants to create a ficticious cutoff low over Ireland at the weekend, i'd be fairly certain that won't happen, the jet is still too far south but won't take much to shift it north but the azores high needs to return before that can happen

On the other hand, the ECM is showing high pressure over us with temperatures well into the mid teens. I'll take any of those options but I would prefer the GFS. The ECM is an outlier for the moment anyway.

jdcv94 · 19-03-2018 3:13pm

First positive chart in a while for warmies

.

JCX BXC · 19-03-2018 3:36pm

I'm just hoping that it's cloudless despite that slack SW flow!

sryanbruen · 19-03-2018 3:43pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

I'm just hoping that it's cloudless despite that slack SW flow!

At this time of year, it's kind of hit and miss if there's cloud in a setup like the ECM 0z shows in FI. The ideal position is for the high to be centered further northwards in over Ireland to get widespread warmth and sunshine. The south and east would obviously benefit reasonably well in sun from that pattern though could be far better but not the north and west really.

GFS and ECM are polar opposites of each other so we could go either way. My methodology showed a rather average April on the cards with high pressure to the south and a low to the north bringing in April showers and zonal westerlies.

JCX BXC · 19-03-2018 3:45pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

At this time of year, it's kind of hit and miss if there's cloud in a setup like the ECM 0z shows in FI. The ideal position is for the high to be centered further northwards in over Ireland to get widespread warmth and sunshine. The south and east would obviously benefit reasonably well in sun from that pattern though could be far better but not the north and west really.

I know only too well, it's very regular that in those setup's in the summer the east can have mid to even high 20's while the West and Southwest in particular will bask in cloudy skies with temperatures 10c lower!

nacho libre · 19-03-2018 6:27pm

The ECM seems to be out if kilter with the clusters, more of them lean toward the GFS OP. I certainly hope the GFS is correct. I'm ready for the beast from the north. There are tentative signs km79 and others may get their wish in and around mid april. Only a bit over seven months till November now anyway:D. Lets hope we get a very early snowfall this November, then a revist by the father of the beast in early January.

sryanbruen · 19-03-2018 8:07pm

ECM 12z is more in line with the GFS.

sryanbruen · 19-03-2018 8:22pm

ECM you teaser

, very brief southwesterly before the northerly on the 12z.

JCX BXC · 19-03-2018 8:36pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM you teaser , very brief southwesterly before the northerly on the 12z.

Not sure why you'd want a southwesterly, cloudy, damp and dreary weather is all too common in this country!

I hope you're doing reverse psychology!

sryanbruen · 19-03-2018 8:38pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not sure why you'd want a southwesterly, cloudy, damp and dreary weather is all too common in this country!

I hope you're doing reverse psychology!

Of course I am!

A northerly will be much clearer.

Donegal Storm · 19-03-2018 8:45pm

Heading into April a setup like that would probably lead to some land based convection kicking off so plenty of sunshine but with nice cloudscapes and thundery hail showers. I'd take that..

nacho libre · 19-03-2018 9:42pm

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Heading into April a setup like that would probably lead to some land based convection kicking off so plenty of sunshine but with nice cloudscapes and thundery hail showers. I'd take that..

Yes some heavy hail showers mixed with snow would be good.

sryanbruen · 20-03-2018 12:38am

On phone so can’t post charts, but Pub Run continues to show northerly for Easter and staying with us for quite a few days. The GFS has been very consistent with this, all runs today of it have showed this northerly.

pauldry · 20-03-2018 12:51am

I remember in 2006 I think it was there was the Northerly being shown on the charts around April but then what followed was some glorious weather for the following few months.

Surely we are due some warmth after this Northerly...surely

20-03-2018 12:51am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not sure why you'd want a southwesterly, cloudy, damp and dreary weather is all too common in this country!

I hope you're doing reverse psychology!

Woo hoo!! Come on the Bartlett high........

(gets coat).

kingshankly · 20-03-2018 8:51am

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes some heavy hail showers mixed with snow would be good.

It would in its hole its fceking heat we need folks. at this stage have been looking at snow on and off since early January. I’m sure farmers are desperate for a bit of growth at this stage
Would slso be nice not to be having to fill the oil tank every 6 weeks

FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST