Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Wild Bill · 02-01-2012 12:42pm

What's it called?

gbee · 02-01-2012 12:52pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

What's it called?

Weather 4D. I don't have it long enough to comment.

maquiladora · 02-01-2012 1:18pm

Chief Forecaster's Assessment

A deep depression will affect the UK on Tuesday bringing very windy conditions to much of the north of the UK, gusts widely reaching 60 to 70 MPH. Strongest winds are expected across northern parts of Northern Ireland and, more especially, Scotland, including the Central Lowlands. Here gusts will reach 70 to 80 MPH, perhaps locally 90 MPH.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

whataboutnow · 02-01-2012 1:22pm

Met office not predicting it to be that bad now.only the north coast of NI is in the amber warning the same as every other storm this winter.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Tae laidir · 02-01-2012 1:28pm

Sea Temperatures remain quite high over the winter.
Current Range 10.3 to 11.1, way above the Long Term Average of 7.3.
There is a lot of energy out there!
http://www.met.ie/latest/buoy.asp
http://www.met.ie/marine/marine_climatology.asp

jirafa · 02-01-2012 1:44pm

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=126188

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=126189

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=126190

index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=126192

Its a case of batten down the hatches.with severe gale force winds even penetrating inland.

spiderman1885 · 02-01-2012 1:46pm

Winds and anxiety levels rising throughout Ireland currently.

whataboutnow · 02-01-2012 1:48pm

jirafa wrote: »

Its a case of batten down the hatches.with severe gale force winds even penetrating inland.

Hi,having difficulty reading the maps u kindly posted.what wind speeds do u reckon stranorlar could get in donegal.thanks in advance?

Iancar29 · 02-01-2012 1:52pm

Looks like things will get rocking from 10pm !

sunbabe08 · 02-01-2012 1:53pm

from weather channel.com

Local Weather Alert

Potential disruption due to thunderstorms for Munster,

ohhh this should be interesting if this happens

gbee · 02-01-2012 2:00pm

whataboutnow wrote: »

Hi,having difficulty reading the maps u kindly posted.what wind speeds do u reckon stranorlar could get in donegal.thanks in advance?

My guess is about 60kmh 32kn ~ the trick as I see it is the sustainability of the high wind ~ I think it will feel very stormy without breaking any records. Wind gusts are another thing, I've no opinion.

jirafa · 02-01-2012 2:00pm

Shipping forecast and gale warnings

The general synopsis at 0600 UTC

Low 150 miles south of Iceland 961, expected 100 miles east of Iceland 969 by 0600 tomorrow. New Atlantic low, moving rapidly northeast, expected Malin 954 by same time

Malin
Gale warnings - Issued: 0950 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Westerly gale force 8 increasing violent storm force 11 later
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Wind
Westerly becoming cyclonic 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10, occasionally violent storm 11 later.
Sea State
High or very high.
Weather
Rain or squally wintry showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

Rockall
Gale warnings - Issued: 0341 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Westerly severe gale force 9, increasing storm force 10 later
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Wind
Westerly becoming cyclonic 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10.
Sea State
High or very high.
Weather
Rain or squally wintry showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

Shannon
Gale warnings - Issued: 0950 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Southwesterly gale force 8 veering westerly and increasing storm force 10 later
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Wind
West or southwest, backing south for a time, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10 at times.
Sea State
High or very high.
Weather
Rain or squally showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

Fastnet
Gale warnings - Issued: 0950 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Southwesterly gale force 8 increasing storm force 10 later
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Wind
West or southwest, backing south for a time, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10 at times.
Sea State
High or very high.
Weather
Rain or squally showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

Lundy
Gale warnings - Issued: 0950 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Southwesterly storm force 10 expected later
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Wind
West or southwest, backing south for a time, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10 at times.
Sea State
Rough or very rough.
Weather
Rain or squally showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

Irish Sea
Gale warnings - Issued: 0950 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Southwesterly storm force 10 expected later
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1130 UTC Mon 02 Jan

Wind
West or southwest, backing south for a time, 5 to 7, increasing gale 8 to storm 10 at times.
Sea State
Rough or very rough.
Weather
Rain or squally showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~All

gbee · 02-01-2012 2:03pm

sunbabe08 wrote: »

from weather channel.com ohhh this should be interesting if this happens

CAPE 67 about 6am Cork. I'd turn off my PCs tonight going to bed.

eskimocat · 02-01-2012 2:08pm

it will be interesting to see what the rte weather forecast on rte one says.... will let ye know... so far there is a quick mention for severe weather tonight in the Connaught and Ulster in the main news.

Mentions storm force southerly winds for a time tonight mostly Connaught and Ulster.. highest range of numbers 77, 73 . They have the storm tracking north of Donegal on the chart.

yellowlabrador · 02-01-2012 2:08pm

gbee wrote: »

Just to advise new readers, these barbs follow the same criteria when the measuring scale is in miles or kilometres. For simplicity a triangle wind barbs is 50 in the measuring scale.

I mention this because some tombs on weather insist that the barbs are Knots only ~ if you have weather software on your smart phone one can change the measuring and watch the barbs change too.

Can you recommend any apps for android? I already have weather.com on my phone but I can't get much info from that. It would be handy, because I have a feeling we in West Cork might loose our electricity and if I had a mobile signal, I could still stay up to date. I remember the big 1986 storm in Britain. It seemed to come out of nowhere and I remember that night vividly. Even the BBC radio went. The damage round my house was tremendous. My daughter was 3 at the time and I'd been explaining about Autumn the day before. When we ventured out that morning, she looked around her and said 'the leaves have fallen WITH the trees' Over 80 % of the trees, some several 100 years old were down, and that was in Stepney East London.

leahyl · 02-01-2012 2:09pm

eskimocat wrote: »

it will be interesting to see what the rte weather forecast on rte one says.... will let ye know... so far there is a quick mention for severe weather tonight in the Connaught and Ulster

Ya they seem to be focussing on the North and West?

That forecast with Nuala Carey just now was crap!

sunbabe08 · 02-01-2012 2:13pm

and by the looks of things scattered snow showers around the country tomorrow.

maquiladora · 02-01-2012 2:15pm

leahyl wrote: »

Ya they seem to be focussing on the North and West?

That forecast with Nuala Carey just now was crap!

The strongest winds will be in Scotland and along parts of the NI coast by the look of the UK Met Office warning.

Not as strong in the south as was previously expected.

You know the drill!

Hooter23 · 02-01-2012 2:18pm

leahyl wrote: »

Ya they seem to be focussing on the North and West?

That forecast with Nuala Carey just now was crap!

Ya the forecast just there it was crap but i notice everytime they put out big warnings for extreme winds it always seems to turn out not as Bad as forecast and the opposite when they dont put out warnings Lol:pac:

eskimocat · 02-01-2012 2:21pm

Even in their own charts it really looks like the Northern half of the country is going to get a real pasting from this storm but I really feel they didn't stress this enough. Have I missed something, is it downgraded? or are they just playing it coy at this point?

Pangea · 02-01-2012 2:27pm

The forecast just on wouldn't bring much to your attention really.
no warning or anything, I tend to find the forecasts lacking when there isn't a meteorologist presenting it.
I suspect this storm has been downgraded for many.

jirafa · 02-01-2012 2:28pm

Originally Posted by whataboutnow View Post
Hi,having difficulty reading the maps u kindly posted.what wind speeds do u reckon stranorlar could get in donegal.thanks in advance?

I would think anything from 50 mph up to 70 mph..gust speeds are hard to predict for a given town.

leahyl · 02-01-2012 2:30pm

Jesus this downgrade seems to have come out of nowhere!

MT still seems to be fairly confident that it will be a big event though doesn't he??

maquiladora · 02-01-2012 2:30pm

eskimocat wrote: »

Even in their own charts it really looks like the Northern half of the country is going to get a real pasting from this storm but I really feel they didn't stress this enough. Have I missed something, is it downgraded? or are they just playing it coy at this point?

On the GFS/NMM gust charts, it doesn't look as strong as was shown yesterday and doesn't look as strong as other stormy events weve had already this winter.

But thats just those models. We'll just have to see if there are any surprises.

ninebeanrows · 02-01-2012 2:36pm

So making estimates based on the 6z charts and consensus.

I have put together a wee forecast.

Phase 1 winds will be associated with the frontal passage and will be combined with heavy driving rain.

Heavy rains will sweep into the west coast from 8pm and will bring with them rapidly strengthening southerly winds, these winds will veer southwesterly towards midnight and from 9pm until around 3am southerly and southwesterly gales will bring widespread gales across the country. Gusts along the south coast will be very notable and perhaps damaging with gusts to 75KT or almost 140 km/hr possible in locations like Roches Point. Inland gusts will reach between 50KT and 65KT (100-120 km/hr).

Phase 2 will be associated with the rapidly developing core of the depression which will be undergoing rapid cyclogenesis at this point and could present a sting jet towards early morning. More northerly areas will be affected by this under current indications although pressure gradient will stretch inland for a good portion of the north of the country. Wind gusts will increase for the northern half of the country as winds veer west, gusts till again reach 60-70KT even inland while some areas of Donegal and Ulster could see very damaging gusts of as much as 80KT or 150 km/hr.

Keep up to date with the thread and local forecasts as we track the system in real time. The position of the centre is very much dependent on when it undergoes that rapid intensification so is subject to changes of upto 50-100 miles.

Also to note winds will stay from a WNW direction after the passage of the storm these figures are just directed for the passage of the storm system.

Cantona's Collars · 02-01-2012 2:40pm

Lurking here reading some very informative posts,was reading an article on the DM website warning of bad weather. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2081141/Britain-braced-stormy-start-2012-Met-Office-warns-80mph-winds-heavy-rain.html

The funny bit is reading the comments below it,the forecast is for tonight/tomorrow but the morons that half read it usually say "oh it's lovely here,don't believe the met office". The same ones that then whinge when their homes are wrecked by floods etc.

Wouldn't mind a decent storm down this way,the Sunny South East misses all of the fun but I expect the North & West to get the worst of it.

jirafa · 02-01-2012 2:41pm

http://www.myweather2.com/streamline/player.aspx?Streamline=2

mickger844posts · 02-01-2012 2:42pm

maquiladora wrote: »

On the GFS/NMM gust charts, it doesn't look as strong as was shown yesterday and doesn't look as strong as other stormy events weve had already this winter.

But thats just those models. We'll just have to see if there are any surprises.

The winds may not be as strong as yesterdays models but Gusts of 60kts to 70kts are strong and not to be messed with. I'm wondering why its being played down by RTE/Met Eireann

Su Campu · 02-01-2012 2:50pm

Strongest winds forcast in the 11am TAFs, valid until midday Tuesday.

DUBLIN 25 gust 45 kts (from 7am tomorrow)
SHANNON 25 gust 50 kts (from 6am tomorrow)
CORK 25 gust 50 kts (from midnight to 2am)
KNOCK 30 gust 50 kts (from 6am tomorrow)
BELFAST ALDERGROVE 35 gust 55 kts (from 2-5 am tomorrow)

I still say say what I said from day 1, this will turn more to the north and won't be as strong as forecast.

Sponge Bob · 02-01-2012 2:51pm

UKMO

Issued at - 02 Jan 2012, 12:13
Valid from - 03 Jan 2012, 04:00
Valid to - 03 Jan 2012, 18:00

A spell of wet and very windy weather will affect the UK during Tuesday. The public should be aware of the possibility of disruption due to strong winds, e.g. to travel. The windiest conditions will mainly be during Tuesday morning, but, over northeastern Scotland also into the afternoon. A spell of heavy rain will also affect many regions, leading to localised flooding, and parts of northern Scotland will also be affected by snow.

Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Comments