Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert · 01-04-2020 6:25pm #1

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

alias no.9 · 01-04-2020 6:31pm

Red Alert wrote: »

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

My expectation is that if they are seen to be effective, they will be kept as is for another fortnight.

If they are not effective in halting the spread to persons in previously unaffected households who should have been staying indoors, restrictions will be stepped up.

Restrictions will not be stepped down until the masses have been effectively isolating for a time that exceeds the incubation period for the virus.

kieran. · 01-04-2020 6:33pm

alias no.9 wrote: »

My expectation is that if they are seen to be effective, they will be kept as is for another fortnight.

If they are not effective in halting the spread to persons in previously unaffected households who should have been staying indoors, restrictions will be stepped up.

Restrictions will not be stepped down until the masses have been effectively isolating for a time that exceeds the incubation period for the virus.

What further step up measures do you think will be imposed?

shesty · 01-04-2020 6:34pm

I would say 1-2 weeks after Easter.We are not China, they know they are on borrowed time with it.The other thing is that they can't afford the country to shut down for too long...we still have to pay it back.

What exactly happens, and how, after that will depend on our numbers, and the medical resources they have managed to put in place.

Red Alert · 01-04-2020 6:35pm

I think on a practical level it would be hard to step up the existing level of restrictions any further. Unless you were to remove the 2km exercise radius maybe.

BanditLuke · 01-04-2020 6:36pm

Will be delighted if restrictions are relaxed by July.

tdf7187 · 01-04-2020 6:42pm

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

average_runner · 01-04-2020 6:43pm

BanditLuke wrote: »

Will be delighted if restrictions are relaxed by July.

Still wont be able to go abroad

alias no.9 · 01-04-2020 6:46pm

kieran. wrote: »

What further step up measures do you think will be imposed?

*Pure Speculation but possible changes*

No outdoor exercise.

Limited access to shops, maybe two visits a week per household with just a single person making that trip.

A further tightening of the types of workplace allowed to operate.

Don't assume that the current scenario is as tight as it will get. If you don't want to see it getting locked down further, then isolate as best as you can and use whatever influence you have to get others to do the same.

Restrictions will get tighter until it is contained. Restrictions will start to lift after a lag of two to three weeks after effective containment.

average_runner · 01-04-2020 6:48pm

tdf7187 wrote: »

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

Sweden is getting ready for a lockdown. Numbers increasing alot more these days.

People are not happy there

irishgeo · 01-04-2020 6:53pm

i think another week after Easter Sunday and the a relaxing back to the previous level. Purely because its a bank holiday week and its only 4 days for business. The overs 70 might be required to stay indoors. They are expecting the peak in these 2 weeks.

The contact tracing figures are down from 20 to 5 to 2 or 3 so that shows the measures are working.

If the figures start to climb again its back to lock down again.

Around June i think we could see the relaxation of the social distancing, foreign travel not included or a 14 days isolation period.

01-04-2020 6:53pm

If new treatment being trialed starts proving very helpful at keeping people out of the ICUs and then out of hospitals, and becomes more readily available, AND that current measures are proved successful at keeping it at bay in the community there, then one or two relaxations could be made. Elderly people might no longer have to cocoon. One solution to keep people from going out all together might be to limit certain days to surnames beginning with certain letters, eg people (driver if the car in case of couples/families) with certain years of birth can go out specified days. EG.,birth years 1930-1969 can go out Mondays & Saturdays, 1970-1999 can go out Tuesdays, Thursdays & Sundays, birth years 2000 on can go out Wednesdays & Fridays. Very hard to police, but some way to stop the world all going out to the one place at the one time, whilst still allowing some recreation and change of scenery.

KrustyUCC · 01-04-2020 6:54pm

Will be extended to at least the 19th

That's if the public take existing measures seriously

The vast vast majority are but there are always exceptions

This is the type of thing which will see further restrictions brought in

Gardai shocked as middle-aged woman with coronavirus found travelling 'to post letter'

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/crime/gardai-shocked-middle-aged-woman-21787917

lord quackinton · 01-04-2020 6:54pm

I expect restrictions until end of April
Then the restrictions will be relaxed until fully gone by end of may

The cure cannot be worse then the disease - something trump is getting hammered for saying it 4 weeks and we will all say it

Ubbquittious · 01-04-2020 6:54pm

tdf7187 wrote: »

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

Coppers is still open?

mickdw · 01-04-2020 6:54pm

Thrre are still too many out in the shops.
Its a danger area so needs to be addressed.
I live in a rural area and the supermarkets in the local town are buzzing. Fair enough they are limiting access and doing what they can but people need to cut down visits ideally or perhaps shops would more evenly distribute shoppers somehow.

HeidiHeidi · 01-04-2020 6:59pm

alias no.9 wrote: »

*Pure Speculation but possible changes*

No outdoor exercise.

Limited access to shops, maybe two visits a week per household with just a single person making that trip.

A further tightening of the types of workplace allowed to operate.

Don't assume that the current scenario is as tight as it will get. If you don't want to see it getting locked down further, then isolate as best as you can and use whatever influence you have to get others to do the same.

Restrictions will get tighter until it is contained. Restrictions will start to lift after a lag of two to three weeks after effective containment.

All of this

Charles Babbage · 01-04-2020 7:06pm

There will not be more restrictions, those in place are working. The tests now reported were taken last week and it takes time to work through the system.
Places like DIY shops were not a priority to close anyway and will be reopened.

I would suggest that clear rules be identified, re spacing, regulation of numbers, hand washing facilities for customers and staff, screens for staff counters, etc and that some more shops would be opened if they can show they meet these requirements. Likewise outdoor construction could resume with handwashing facility requirements, split shifts etc.

tdf7187 wrote: »

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

Sweden has about twice the population of ROI, but 4 times the deaths today.

Sultan of Bling · 01-04-2020 7:11pm

KrustyUCC wrote:

Gardai shocked as middle-aged woman with coronavirus found travelling 'to post letter'

Why are fines not given in this instance.

Pair of twats.

Acey10 · 01-04-2020 7:13pm

what's your thoughts on schools opening?

Red Alert · 01-04-2020 7:14pm

mickdw wrote: »

Thrre are still too many out in the shops.
Its a danger area so needs to be addressed.
I live in a rural area and the supermarkets in the local town are buzzing. Fair enough they are limiting access and doing what they can but people need to cut down visits ideally or perhaps shops would more evenly distribute shoppers somehow.

In fairness to people there doesn’t seem to be panic / unreasonable buying going on. I don’t see too many empty shelves.

twowheelsonly · 01-04-2020 7:45pm

tdf7187 wrote: »

The restrictions are already causing disproportionate hardship and should be relaxed if not entirely removed. Sweden has none and is doing fine. But hey it's great for the coppers and their overtime so celebrate.

Sweden is far from doing fine. Their deaths per million population currently stands at 24. Ours is 17. There's also a lot of questions being asked over there about their testing rates.
Compare both to New Zealand (a country similar to our own in population and demographics) who imposed a lock down before any of us and who were particularly strict on isolating those returning to the country right from the start. They had their first case the day before us. They currently have 708 cases total and a death rate of 0.2 per million of population.

I can see things being extended for another two weeks at least. There's two many people out and about and too much leeway given to some businesses. The cops should be given MORE overtime and big sticks to go with it to whip any teens or young fellas hanging around. Whip, whip, and whip again. Then fine them as well. The only way to beat this thing is to starve it and that's just not happening. Another two weeks of a proper serious lockdown would go a long way towards slowing this right down.

scooby77 · 01-04-2020 7:56pm

Probably be shot down for this but could restrictions not be lifted (slowly) by region?
Least affected first?
In any event probably back to where we were last Thursday by 19th April, further reductions in restrictions after May Bank Holiday, then further around 19th May .
Complete eg foreign travel, pubs open...June/July?

thebaz · 01-04-2020 8:05pm

I dont know about anyone else but this isloation is driving me stir crazy after only a few days - I'm an outdoors type person, could hack another 2 weeks - max -
After I would say Cocoon the at risk , and slowly return a little back to normal.
I have lost all my work, and so many other small business are the same, the mental health scars are going to be seriously horrific if this goes on much longer.
Some people seam better adjusted to a life of self-isolation, in fact some seam to nearly enjoy the severe restrictions, I am struggling big time, and am doing it to protect the vulnerable, and we all have elderly relations, but at some point life must return, before too much damage is done to even more -
Where are the Government getting all this money to pay for a society basically shut down ?

ILoveYourVibes · 01-04-2020 8:06pm

Red Alert wrote: »

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

They won't be able to relax restrictions until sept at the earliest.

They won't be able to tighten them without causing trouble though.

Its already causing public disorder in Italy.

odyssey06 · 01-04-2020 8:10pm

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They won't be able to relax restrictions until sept at the earliest.
They won't be able to tighten them without causing trouble though.
Its already causing public disorder in Italy.

They wont be able to keep over 70s et al cocooned for 6 months. There would be huge health implications to that.

It would have to step back to the level it was at last week.

michaelm · 01-04-2020 8:12pm

Acey10 wrote: »

what's your thoughts on schools opening?

The pressing issue is what to do about the Leaving Cert - this is the only situation where this is a major and immediate consequence. The Junior Cert can wait. I've absolutely no insider information but reckon they will need to run it in some form during the summer or early autumn. It is actually a huge headache with no simple or straightforward solution. There is a lot of project work complete/almost complete, should this be included? If so schools will need to return for a number of weeks before the exams, in fact they would need to do this for all subjects anyway - can't see many teachers/students happy to go straight to exams as they would have lost the crucial final 10 weeks. A huge conundrum for al involved.

otnomart · 01-04-2020 8:20pm

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They won't be able to relax restrictions until sept at the earliest.

They won't be able to tighten them without causing trouble though.

Its already causing public disorder in Italy.

Source, please ?

Have just checked the main Italian media and there is nothing about public disorders over there.

01-04-2020 8:22pm

I think an added two weeks with restrictions lifted slowly. Schools to reopen for leaving cert only.
Hopefully all schools, colleges and all workplaces back to near normal in September.
No point in rushing things at this stage. I feel that we haven’t peaked just yet. That’ll happen in the next two weeks.

Stark · 01-04-2020 8:23pm

otnomart wrote: »

Source, please ?

Have just checked the main Italian media and there is nothing about public disorders over there.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown

easypazz · 01-04-2020 8:24pm

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

They won't be able to relax restrictions until sept at the earliest.

They won't be able to tighten them without causing trouble though.

Its already causing public disorder in Italy.

Unless the number of daily deaths starts to surge there is no chance of September. Give it another 2 weeks, and if daily deaths hovers at or below 20 there will be an initial relaxation, like lift the 2km, hardware stores reopen etc.

Galwayguy35 · 01-04-2020 8:26pm

thebaz wrote: »

I dont know about anyone else but this isloation is driving me stir crazy after only a few days - I'm an outdoors type person, could hack another 2 weeks - max -
After I would say Cocoon the at risk , and slowly return a little back to normal.
I have lost all my work, and so many other small business are the same, the mental health scars are going to be seriously horrific if this goes on much longer.
Some people seam better adjusted to a life of self-isolation, in fact some seam to nearly enjoy the severe restrictions, I am struggling big time, and am doing it to protect the vulnerable, and we all have elderly relations, but at some point life must return, before too much damage is done to even more -
Where are the Government getting all this money to pay for a society basically shut down ?

They had money in the kitty theat was supposed to be used for house building etc but a lot of that will be eaten up by the time this is over and they will probably have to borrow as well.

Interest rates are low but it will still have to be paid back down the line.

easypazz · 01-04-2020 8:27pm

michaelm wrote: »

The pressing issue is what to do about the Leaving Cert - this is the only situation where this is a major and immediate consequence. The Junior Cert can wait. I've absolutely no insider information but reckon they will need to run it in some form during the summer or early autumn. It is actually a huge headache with no simple or straightforward solution. There is a lot of project work complete/almost complete, should this be included? If so schools will need to return for a number of weeks before the exams, in fact they would need to do this for all subjects anyway - can't see many teachers/students happy to go straight to exams as they would have lost the crucial final 10 weeks. A huge conundrum for al involved.

The leaving cert. will probably go ahead in June unless there is a big daily body count then, which there should not be considering the peak is to be mid April.

Pretzill · 01-04-2020 8:27pm

I wouldn't think it's possible to lift restrictions until everything is completely under control. The alternative is thousands more infections with further unnecessary deaths. That's the point people won't just die of ARDS brought on by Covid 19 - they will die waiting for crucial appointments, of heart attacks/strokes etc by not getting the care they need in time.

I see further restrictions (possibly city curfews - a.very limited line for shops etc) before they are loosened and I don't see a loosening on restrictions until mid/late summer at earliest - I hope I'm wrong though.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-04-2020 8:28pm

I'd go with the end of July for the beginning of relaxing measures across Europe and in Ireland and the middle of 2021 to see a return to normality.

No government is going to relax the measures so long as the threat of a renewed explosion in cases is there.

Because we will just be shut down again within a week.

A lot of unrealistic expectations around.

easypazz · 01-04-2020 8:30pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd go with the end of July for the beginning of relaxing measures across Europe and in Ireland and the middle of 2021 to see a return to normality.

No government is going to relax the measures so long as the threat of a renewed explosion in cases is there.

Because we will just be shut down again within a week.

A lot of unrealistic expectations around.

How can you see normality in 2021 if there is another wave next winter?

alias no.9 · 01-04-2020 8:31pm

Charles Babbage wrote: »

There will not be more restrictions, those in place are working. The tests now reported were taken last week and it takes time to work through the system.
Places like DIY shops were not a priority to close anyway and will be reopened.

Complacency is the enemy. A second wave needs to be avoided.
As for DIY stores, every Tom, Dick and Harry was out getting DIY stuff. They may start click and collect or delivery but if they reopen, it will be for limited product lines.

otnomart · 01-04-2020 8:33pm

Stark wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/singing-stops-italy-fear-social-unrest-mount-coronavirus-lockdown

The Guardian's wording is "brewing social unrest".
Quite a difference with "public disorders".

wadacrack · 01-04-2020 8:33pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd go with the end of July for the beginning of relaxing measures across Europe and in Ireland and the middle of 2021 to see a return to normality.

No government is going to relax the measures so long as the threat of a renewed explosion in cases is there.

Because we will just be shut down again within a week.

A lot of unrealistic expectations around.

Im not sure how they can be relaxed at all until 2021. Unless their was a home test kit and you tested yourself each day and the government had access to an app with your health status indicated. Its very difficult to foresee where society goes until their is a vaccine

CruelSummer · 01-04-2020 8:33pm

Am I the only one that thinks this will peak earlier than most expect? The numbers re confirmed positive tests here are now meaningless as they don’t have the capacity to test people. Hospital admissions, ICU rates and GP’s phone consults should be used to discern an approximate rate of infection in the population. I think it’s everywhere and if you want to catch it just keep going out & about and you’ll find it somewhere. I personally think the economic and social impact of what we’re currently doing would be far more dangerous than the virus itself if this was to continue long term.

GolfNut33 · 01-04-2020 8:36pm

They'll just keep extending it when we get to the end of each end date. If they said last week that we'll be stuck in our houses for 3 months people would go nuts.

This whole lockdown is carefully staggered to ease us in to it. Each stage more severe than the last. Imagine if they said 3 weeks ago that from midnight tonight everything is shutting down like it is now. There would be riots.

Harry Palmr · 01-04-2020 8:41pm

If the overall restrictions are to continue into summer there will have to be regular sectional loosening up to allow people to actually buy stuff that goes beyond food and toothpaste. Otherwise our quality of life is going to start suffering and people will simply break the "cerfew" and then the state will effectively lose control of situation.

So open the DIY places for a weekend with all the expected controls on behaviour while in them, then open the department stores likewise and so on. Policed properly it could be done and everyone will be aquiessient for that much longer.

Kermit.de.frog · 01-04-2020 8:42pm

CruelSummer wrote: »

Am I the only one that thinks this will peak earlier than most expect? The numbers re confirmed positive tests here are now meaningless as they don’t have the capacity to test people. Hospital admissions, ICU rates and GP’s phone consults should be used to discern an approximate rate of infection in the population. I think it’s everywhere and if you want to catch it just keep going out & about and you’ll find it somewhere. I personally think the economic and social impact of what we’re currently doing would be far more dangerous than the virus itself if this was to continue long term.

That's the balance that's needs to be struck between the overall national interest and the interest of a minority that get in to real difficult with the illness.

It's a really difficult one for the politicians.

I wouldn't want to be making a call like that.

I guess sooner or later someone is going have to make it for good or ill.

scwazrh · 01-04-2020 8:49pm

If we stayed closed for longer than Easter Sunday there won’t be many small businesses left to open back up.
Other countries are giving direct payments to affected business , ours is giving money to finance companies so that they can decide who to lend it to and charge interest rates up to 14%.

Icepick · 01-04-2020 8:50pm

Not even China has this fully under control. Things easing in 2 weeks is an utter fantasy (unless a miraculous mass produced cure appears).

01-04-2020 8:53pm

Icepick wrote: »

Not even China has this is fully under control. Things easing in 2 weeks is an utter fantasy (unless a miraculous mass produced cure appears).

Surely solution is ease in 3 weeks and quarantine anyone entering the country for 2 weeks after that date and ease quatantine restrictions as time deos on for countries covid free

Might kill tourism sector here,but has potential to increase staycation as 2 week forgien holidays,become 4 weeks off work due to quarantine

easypazz · 01-04-2020 8:54pm

I spent some frustrating time on to phone companies, insurance, banks etc. trying to reduce weekly payments and outgoings etc.

While publicly they are all claiming to play their part, the reality is they are willing to do very little.

I am not the worst off financially but there are a lot of people who will see high interest credit card and overdraft debt build up very quickly.

This can't be sustained more than a matter of weeks or a month, and people will suffer far more than is being achieved.

AdamD · 01-04-2020 8:55pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'd go with the end of July for the beginning of relaxing measures across Europe and in Ireland and the middle of 2021 to see a return to normality.

No government is going to relax the measures so long as the threat of a renewed explosion in cases is there.

Because we will just be shut down again within a week.

A lot of unrealistic expectations around.

I think they'd struggle to keep co-operation for aother 4 months, more than struggle.

Beasty · 01-04-2020 8:55pm

easypazz wrote: »

How can you see normality in 2021 if there is another wave next winter?

Probably not going to be "normality" if it's brought under control but erupts again. Hopefully lots of lessons learned and a more structured plan in place to tackle it, with possibly more targeted restrictions

Short term (and I mean the next couple of months) I don't see much in the way of relaxation of restrictions. Maybe one or two small things to help things tick over and give people sight of some light at the end of the tunnel. Looking at how it's taken over elsewhere I think we'll face some restrictions for quite a long time

Beasty · 01-04-2020 8:57pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Surely solution is ease in 3 weeks and quarantine anyone entering the country for 2 weeks after that date

And how do you deal with the likes of truck drivers and others coming over by ferry, possibly via NI?

01-04-2020 9:02pm

Beasty wrote: »

And how do you deal with the likes of truck drivers and others coming over by ferry, possibly via NI?

Quanantine them/do trailer drop offs (possibly examine prospect for damp-dusting)

Gonna need an all ireland basis for this though....seems most realistic tbh,

The uk are facing into an absolute sh1tshow and those who own holiday homes here from.there should be quarantined in particular....i see my own town do have hape of em about in summer...its a massive risk

Ive siblings,nieces nephews etc over in uk and realiatically,il not be able to visit em.this year and vice versa.

Relaxation of restrictions

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