Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

M6 buoy is back online.

Deleted User wrote: »

Wouldn't be much rain associated with this over land would there?

A front will cross the country earlier in the morning with beefy showers following in then behind it.

maquiladora wrote: »

The center is about 250km west of the M6 buoy now. Pressure at M6 dropping like a stone (see above), 995mb at 9pm.

any chance of this system pulling north a little over the next few hours maq...or has that boat sailed:rolleyes:

A very busy day for Medevac 112,it has landed at Castlebar hospital 3 times today on separate call outs. Rescue 118 was at Mweelrea/Killary harbour for the 3rd day in a row trying to locate a missing climber. passed over Castlebar on the way back to Sligo but did not land.

howlinwolf wrote: »

any chance of this system pulling north a little over the next few hours maq...or has that boat sailed:rolleyes:

I don't see any major change in track right now.

You can see it here :

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2013110122&size=large&lang=en&map=Europe&area=eur

Estimated at 985mb at 10pm. It updates at around 12 minutes past the hour, but only using model data, you have to wait until about 45 minutes past the hour then refresh and it will have redrawn the chart with buoy data added in. The M6 buoy is the one nearest the center there.

Would be good for a moderator to edit thread title to today's date, remove ? and add level 2 alert.

This appears to be an intense meso-scale low which could generate wind damage across parts of the south and later central counties as it tracks generally northeast across the country from about the Galway-Mayo border to Antrim.

Wind maximum likely to track from Kerry/Clare to Dublin/Meath and timing would be something like 0900h southwest, 1300h central and 1600h north Leinster. Potential for sustained winds 55 kts and gusts 75 kts, models have not necessarily missed this but the scale is so small that we need to do this old school. This could produce wind damage mainly trees down, power cuts and minor structural damage.

Will leave the details and tracking to the forum members as I have to file numerous forecasts but if I feel the coverage needs a boost I will add more later.

Was blustery here for a while as the front passed through. Less windy now again.

I'm a little surprised that Mace Head is the only location reporting gale force at the moment, and only just.

We'll see how things progress as the morning goes on.

Sherkin Island had higher gusts earlier and has gone off line (power cut?) ... UK buoy west of Valentia has had sustained 41 kt winds for about 4 hours, and ship report near Cobh last hour showed 53 kt. Some of the models showing a very tight gradient across southern half of Ireland by 12z and deeper low despite land passage. This is pretty much what the Monday low was doing across eastern England and the North Sea. I also factored in that the leading wave lost energy but brought in very high moisture and dew point energy available for later deepening. This is also one of the rare cases that I mentioned in a different thread where my research gives me a reason to suspect intensification so for me, this went to the action side of marginal as soon as I saw the actual upper air data around 0300h. There is quite a tight gradient at 500mb above this small system. Add in the very high SST values and I think we have all the necessary ingredients including strong wind shear aloft and a well-timed pulse of solar sourced geomagnetic pulse. Anyway, seems to be pivoting now west of Clare with two meso-scale vortices evident on recent satellite loop, the southern one likely to dominate from here on. If you're north of a line Westport-Knock-Omagh there will only be moderate east backing to north winds until the low is into Antrim or beyond and then your winds will pick up to join what is likely to be a country-wide windstorm mid-day to mid-afternoon. Gradient appears to tighten almost all day so could get very stormy around Galway and Mayo, and almost as bad further south. Good calls by some yesterday, I was suspicious but could see the thing perhaps failing to ignite or taking the long way round, however this looks like a direct hit on the central corridor Galway to Dublin (eventually, for time being Cork is most at risk of damaging gusts).

chipsdave wrote: »

On The Galley Head coastline here wind has been blowing harder than I have heard for a while , would certainly be worried about power outages , sky quite bright now though as it was very grey there about an hour ago.

I agree, experiencing serious sustained winds in bandon area

Max gust here so far 61 KMH

sounds rough in ballybunion

Widespread gusts even inland from 100-110 km/hr this evening as winds veer westerly.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Cork, Kerry and Waterford

Becoming extremely windy in coastal areas. West to southwest winds, veering west to northwest will reach mean speeds of 60 - 75 km/hr with possibly damaging gusts of 110 to 130 km/hr

Issued:
Saturday 02 November 2013 09:00
Valid:
Saturday 02 November 2013 09:00 to Saturday 02 November 2013 18:00

.

I expect gusts in the Dublin region to reach 60 knots or 110 km/hr this evening.

If i was to predict would say Dublin AIR, 7pm: 62 knots.