Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

maquiladora

All of a sudden, all of the 0Z models have either downgraded or don't develop the low at all. That points to the latest data going into the models having changed something here.

Leaning much more towards "wet and windy" rather than stormy now.

sparrowcar

MT doesn't mention anything in his forecast either.
So close yet so far...

maquiladora

Looking at the 06Z GFS, the wind is as strong (or stronger) this morning for most places than it would be on Saturday.

ninebeanrows

I wouldn't write of the chances this weekend yet, still many possible solutions.

ninebeanrows

Most models now pushing any low pressure system to our south and not as strong as previously progged.

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

Most models now pushing any low pressure system to our south and not as strong as previously progged.

Looks wet, not too windy.

ninebeanrows

I would say this morning it is looking more likely we will see a period of wet and very windy weather, with the low expected to be deepening as it tracks towards Ireland. Where is most affected by the high winds is uncertain as is the intensity of the storm. But Ireland still at risk of heavy rain and high winds on Saturday.

ninebeanrows

Latest High Res NAE has a deepening system approaching the west coast with severe gales early Saturday.

maquiladora

Yeah, NAE looking a bit windy alright. Gales along western and southern coasts, touching storm force at times on this run. Inland, obviously not as strong as that, though there would be strong gusts inland in parts if this happened.



Worth keeping an eye on for sure.

ninebeanrows

GFS could be interesting..

Broadly similar to the NAE output, hitting around 976hPa at the centre.

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS could be interesting..

Broadly similar to the NAE output, hitting around 976hPa at the centre.

It's firming up to have a bit of a sting all of a sudden.

maquiladora

Ok, now we've got a storm thread.

Edit : 12Z UKMO is still weaker and further south, but NAE and GFS showing stormy conditions on west/southwest coasts and potential for gusts inland up to around 100 km/h.

A fluid situation that could easily downgrade in 6 hours time, but good model watching.

ninebeanrows

Yes still a few different solutions available.

From quite a threatening system:



to something much more benign....



All to play for, Happy Halloween!

ninebeanrows

GEM has something quite deep, would be inland gusts to reaching 100/110 km/hr i would reckon, more around coasts.

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM takes the low down to around 980mb but the track is further south, so the windfield is further south, out at sea.

ninebeanrows

Perhaps time to upgrade thread to warning level 1/2.

Not much warning time with this system as it is a nuisance to put detail on but i am sure some part of Ireland will experience severe gales/storm winds this Saturday. And this is just over 36 hours away.

maquiladora

ninebeanrows

ECM further south but similar intensity and hard to judge where it would be 6 hours later.

At the moment the southern half of the country is most at risk.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM further south but similar intensity and hard to judge where it would be 6 hours later.

Center is just off the Clare coast at 45 hours, over Belfast at 51 hours. ~980mb

Also, the date in the thread titled should be the 2nd not the 3rd.

ninebeanrows

18z GFS looking further south & less deep.

Awaiting Latest Hi Res NAE

ninebeanrows

Weathercheck wrote: »

18z GFS looking further south & less deep.

Awaiting Latest Hi Res NAE

There ends up not being too much difference by later Saturday, however the gradient is less steep.

Villain

Weathercheck wrote: »

There ends up not being too much difference put development of low would push strongest winds to the far south initially.

Ya very little change, 981 on 18z versus 978 on 12z

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

18z GFS looking further south & less deep.

Awaiting Latest Hi Res NAE

Yes, 18Z GFS is now in line with ECM, HIRLAM, UKMO. Keeps the strong winds off the south coast.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

There ends up not being too much difference by later Saturday, however the gradient is less steep.

Disagree. The difference is stark, just not easy to tell on Meteociel. The difference between just a windy Autumn day with gales off the south coast and a stormy day over a wide area.

Villain

maquiladora wrote: »

Disagree. The difference is stark, just not easy to tell on Meteociel. The difference between just a windy Autumn day with gales off the south coast and a stormy day over a wide area.

It will move again by the time it's in +12, I wouldn't get too bogged down on exact location yet.

ninebeanrows

maquiladora wrote: »

Disagree. The difference is stark, just not easy to tell on Meteociel. The difference between just a windy Autumn day with gales off the south coast and a stormy day over a wide area.

Yes i was trying to explain that, the position of the centre of the low is similar but the gradient and internal structure of the low centre pushes the highest wind to the south.

ninebeanrows

The 18z NAE does something similar, tends to spread out the isobars and stall the intensification as it moves over Ireland.

However i suspect the exact details of the low will change in the next 24 hours.

This is where NAE places the Low at 18z Saturday

- Would be windy but nothing severe
- Inland gusts south of low 40-50 knots max

maquiladora

Yeah NAE is similar. Shifted the low south enough to keep the strongest winds offshore rather than crashing into the southwest on the 12Z.

A rough agreement on a track now between NAE, HIRLAM, GFS, UKMO and ECM. Looks like we going to dodge another one.

leahyl

Damn! Was looking forward to a nice stormy Saturday :-(

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

Damn! Was looking forward to a nice stormy Saturday :-(

Well it looks looks like the south coast will be closest to the areas of high winds, so if anywhere still has a chance of stormy conditions it's there.