Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

tylercollins

Been looking at the charts over on weatheronline and it seems that there is another possible wind event for the north of the country on Sunday 3rd November...

6 days out and the latest GFS (06z) has this low is at 964.. I'd like a more expert opinion on this, what's your thoughts?

airman737

Evelyn mentioned this yesterday. Another week of model watching :-)

pad199207

Yep and in a week a lot can change! But will be keeping an eye on this all the same!

Ireland and Scotland could be wild! (We'll show England how its done!)

ninebeanrows

Yea one to watch but very little detail can be given on the placement and depth of any low pressure system at the moment. A host of options presented in the ECMWF ensembles.

Iancar29

GFS ensembles showing alot of options indeed this far out , from weak to strong lows up north , to split lows to one impacting more of the West and south... Its ALL to play for ...





Stay Tuned .... :rolleyes:

Red Nissan

I'm not going to follow this one. I'm going to let it be a surprise.

leahyl

Oh this is verging on the snow watching for me! Not sure my heart can take it :-P so I'm gonna do the same as Red Nissan - let it be a surprise!

tylercollins

leahyl wrote: »

Oh this is verging on the snow watching for me! Not sure my heart can take it :-P so I'm gonna do the same as Red Nissan - let it be a surprise!

That's the whole fun in it :P

Latest charts have it further north now :pac:

maquiladora

tylercollins wrote: »

That's the whole fun in it :P

Latest charts have it further north now :pac:

ECM and UKMO take the low directly over Ireland, UKMO weaker than the ECM.

Latest GFS has it up north but also sends a second smaller low tracking over the north of the country giving most places some strong winds.

Details don't really matter at the moment anyway, the models will have changed again by tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

In the nearer term there is an period that is of great interest and concern.

And it is nearer 84/96hrs.

Really intense Jetstream comes out of North America and a worrying little surface disturbance is progged near the right entrance of the Jet, just north of the Azores.

The ingredients are there for an explosive storm to develop, however the risk is low at the minute.

Looking at the ECMWF ensembles there are some members that develop a system that hits Ireland as early as Friday.

This is before the other period of concern later in the weekend.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

In the nearer term there is an period that is of great interest and concern.

And it is nearer 84/96hrs.

Really intense Jetstream comes out of North America and a worrying little surface disturbance is progged near the right entrance of the Jet, just north of the Azores.

The ingredients are there for an explosive storm to develop, however the risk is low at the minute.

Looking at the ECMWF ensembles there are some members that develop a system that hits Ireland as early as Friday.

This is before the other period of concern later in the weekend.

Chinese model (lol) shows that happening, both systems. The old "1, 2 Uniflu".




Which reminded me a bit of....

Weathering

I preferred the following December's storm Maq. Can't beat sting jets

maquiladora

The GEM develops Friday's potential low. The other models keep it weaker/further south.

dopolahpec

The models really are showing a conveyer belt of nasty lows being hurled across the Atlantic at the moment. As of this morning, there seems to be almost universal support for a period of stormy weather around Sunday 3rd and some small support for a low around Friday 1st. The Sunday storm looks almost locked in, but as it stands, while windy what the ECM and GFS are showing this morning looks a tad too filled out to bring real disruption, though there are ENS members showing much more violent developments. Extremely fascinating period of weather, and you know, the brightness between these stormy conditions is lovely and clear, and very autumnal.

dopolahpec

6z GFS takes the 3rd November low a lot farther north with much less of a storm impact felt, a blustery day, winds from the northwest.

Villain

Ya 6z GFS shows nothing out of the ordinary really but its only one run and plenty of time to chop and change

ninebeanrows

Ensemble 6 would be interesting...

Cantona's Collars

Weathercheck wrote: »

Ensemble 6 would be interesting...

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-6-1-84.png?6

Want this one please,the first interesting storm for the SE decided to miss us completely the other day.

maquiladora

12Z GFS has shifted Saturday's low closer to us again. Off the northwest coast around 970mb. Gales to strong gales along western coasts touching storm force on southwest coasts, if that were to verify.

Doesn't develop Friday's potential low at all.

We'll see what the other models do, expect further changes.

acassells80

Flying to America on Friday morning so hoping the issue with Friday is a non event

maquiladora

12Z GEM has dropped the development of Friday's low but ramped up Saturday's storm into a sub-965mb low, winds would be a bit stronger than the GFS run. Will take a closer look at that later.

I think overall the chance of anything happening on Friday are decreasing, but increasing for Saturday. We'll see what the ECM thinks.

M.T. Cranium

Nobody wants to jump the gun here, I see. Probably wise, but we're close to locking in on a very windy Saturday now.

ninebeanrows

Yes a deep depression expected to track across Ireland.

At the moment the storm peaks just to our west and begins to fill as it moves east but any timing change could place extreme winds over us.

At the moment looking very windy with storm force winds off the west coast.

ninebeanrows

A few notable ensembles this evening for Saturday

maquiladora

A windy day, at least, looks likely. Gales along Atlantic coasts looks probable. Something more intense than that looks possible.

We should have a better idea this time tomorrow.

leahyl

Weathercheck wrote: »

A few notable ensembles this evening for Saturday

Good God that looks nasty!!

whiteandlight

Crap. I'm at a wedding that day in clare. Looks like I'll be packing warm clothes/tights/coat!

Esel

Musicmental85 wrote: »

Crap. I'm at a wedding that day in clare. Looks like I'll be packing tight, warm clothes!

FYP. And warn the bride to have good ballast on her train!

I hope a bit of frivolity is allowed in this forum.

whiteandlight

Esel wrote: »

FYP. And warn the bride to have good ballast on her train!

I hope a bit of frivolity is allowed in this forum.

I actually thought I had typed that when I first read the response.... Rofl


Back on topic, looks like a lot of wind anyways. Any of the knowledgable people tell me if it'll be rain too?

Esel

Musicmental85 wrote: »

I actually thought I had typed that when I first read the response.... Rofl


Back on topic, looks like a lot of wind anyways. Any of the knowledgable people tell me if it'll be rain too?

I'm definitely not a weather expert - I usually can't even tell when it's just about to rain, unless it is really obvious (i.e. ominous black clouds, preferably with stuff hanging from them, rapidly heading my way). But the 'feels like rain' thing just does not happen to me.

Anyhow, in spite of the above, I would be reasonably confident that a weather event such as that under discussion here will be accompanied by copious amounts of wind-driven precipitation. Especially in Clare! :pac:

Seriously though - stay well away from the seashore - and the Cliffs of Moher or for that matter anywhere with any adjacent steep drop.

Oh, almost forgot! People trying to catch the bouquet should take the prevailing wind speed and direction into consideration.

dopolahpec

Nasty little depression showing on 12z GFS for Saturday. Yet ECM seems to not develop the potential lows at all.

maquiladora

All of a sudden, all of the 0Z models have either downgraded or don't develop the low at all. That points to the latest data going into the models having changed something here.

Leaning much more towards "wet and windy" rather than stormy now.

sparrowcar

MT doesn't mention anything in his forecast either.
So close yet so far...

maquiladora

Looking at the 06Z GFS, the wind is as strong (or stronger) this morning for most places than it would be on Saturday.

ninebeanrows

I wouldn't write of the chances this weekend yet, still many possible solutions.

ninebeanrows

Most models now pushing any low pressure system to our south and not as strong as previously progged.

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

Most models now pushing any low pressure system to our south and not as strong as previously progged.

Looks wet, not too windy.

ninebeanrows

I would say this morning it is looking more likely we will see a period of wet and very windy weather, with the low expected to be deepening as it tracks towards Ireland. Where is most affected by the high winds is uncertain as is the intensity of the storm. But Ireland still at risk of heavy rain and high winds on Saturday.

ninebeanrows

Latest High Res NAE has a deepening system approaching the west coast with severe gales early Saturday.

maquiladora

Yeah, NAE looking a bit windy alright. Gales along western and southern coasts, touching storm force at times on this run. Inland, obviously not as strong as that, though there would be strong gusts inland in parts if this happened.



Worth keeping an eye on for sure.

ninebeanrows

GFS could be interesting..

Broadly similar to the NAE output, hitting around 976hPa at the centre.

dopolahpec

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS could be interesting..

Broadly similar to the NAE output, hitting around 976hPa at the centre.

It's firming up to have a bit of a sting all of a sudden.

maquiladora

Ok, now we've got a storm thread.

Edit : 12Z UKMO is still weaker and further south, but NAE and GFS showing stormy conditions on west/southwest coasts and potential for gusts inland up to around 100 km/h.

A fluid situation that could easily downgrade in 6 hours time, but good model watching.

ninebeanrows

Yes still a few different solutions available.

From quite a threatening system:



to something much more benign....



All to play for, Happy Halloween!

ninebeanrows

GEM has something quite deep, would be inland gusts to reaching 100/110 km/hr i would reckon, more around coasts.

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM takes the low down to around 980mb but the track is further south, so the windfield is further south, out at sea.

ninebeanrows

Perhaps time to upgrade thread to warning level 1/2.

Not much warning time with this system as it is a nuisance to put detail on but i am sure some part of Ireland will experience severe gales/storm winds this Saturday. And this is just over 36 hours away.

maquiladora

ninebeanrows

ECM further south but similar intensity and hard to judge where it would be 6 hours later.

At the moment the southern half of the country is most at risk.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM further south but similar intensity and hard to judge where it would be 6 hours later.

Center is just off the Clare coast at 45 hours, over Belfast at 51 hours. ~980mb

Also, the date in the thread titled should be the 2nd not the 3rd.

ninebeanrows

18z GFS looking further south & less deep.

Awaiting Latest Hi Res NAE