Possible Storm / Strong Wind Event 2nd November

ninebeanrows

I'll reserve judgement until tomorrow's 12z as only small changes in the setup could leave us in a much more precarious position.

xXxkorixXx

can anyone tell me what the chances are of the saturday morning rosslare to fishguard ferry being cancelled?

ninebeanrows

Most models still keep the core of strong winds over the south of Ireland.

The gradient then tightens again later as the storm clears.

So at the moment it is looking like coastal wind gusts 50-60kt in exposed Southern/Southwestern areas.

And then gusts from 40-55kt as the system pushes into Britain later Saturday.

maquiladora

Further south again on the 06Z NAE.

ninebeanrows

I would still say this will cause some interest.

Looks at the moment as if the south coast and southwest will see gusts between 100-120 km/hr peaking around midday Saturday.

Elsewhere it will be breezy with rain clearing eastwards; initially gusty with southerly winds gusting to 90 km/hr in places.

Then the low centre will push northeast and winds will veer westerly/north-westerly. Winds will then peak in the Midlands/East with gusts from 100-110 km/hr.

There is still potential for model guidance to change as the system is only just beginning its development.

maquiladora

Yes, still need to keep an eye on this. It's hard to bet against the track shown in agreement by the models but at the same time it wouldn't take a huge change in track to bring stronger winds over the south.

ninebeanrows

Storm looking very impressive to our west.




http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

maquiladora

Force 9 for southern and eastern coasts.

Southerly gales will develop on coasts from Roche's Pt to Valentia to Loop Head later tonight. On Saturday morning southwest to west, gale force to strong gale force winds will extend to coasts from Fair Head to Roche's Pt to Loop Head and the Irish Sea

Issued at 12:00 on 1-Nov-2013

ninebeanrows

There are very few ships or buoys in the vicinity of the low.

The latest synopsis has the low at 996hPa, this is mostly computer generated as no obs to go by.

On satellite representation this low is near 985hPa IMO.

Oscar Bravo

Met Eireann time on Rte Radio1/ sky 0160 in a minute. lets have a listen.

howlinwolf

looks really pretty on the sat images ....looks to be only winding up rather than winding down as is the case with storms that race across the atlantic.......still no real warnings on met eireann though?

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

looks really pretty on the sat images ....looks to be only winding up rather than winding down as is the case with storms that race across the atlantic.......still no real warnings on met eireann though?

No warnings from Met Eireann because of this :



The models track the center of the low over Ireland. That keeps the windfield down south, off the coast. It will have to shift track further north or maintain very tight isobars close to the center for there to be stormy conditions inland from the coast.

pad199207

maquiladora wrote: »

No warnings from Met Eireann because of this :



The models track the center of the low over Ireland. That keeps the windfield down south, off the coast. It will have to shift track further north or maintain very tight isobars close to the center for there to be stormy conditions inland from the coast.

For someone who enjoys exciting weather events, this chart is a real P*ss me off kinda chart!

ninebeanrows

Latest GME has this further south.

ninebeanrows

NAE quite consistent at 12z.

First swathe of intense winds restricted to the far south and southwest early Tomorrow as centre of low moves over Ireland.

Then later in the day another swathe of intense winds in association with the wrap-around occlusion affect elsewhere.

So risk of gusts to 60/65 knots in southwest, south tomorrow AM/early PM

Then a risk of widespread gusts from 50-60 knots as winds turn west/northwest across a large portion of country.

Storm @ midday




Wrap-around @ 9pm

pad199207

You would think looking at the current sat that a more southern track wouldn't be plausible

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest GME has this further south.

GFS further south too. The same gusts that were shown inland on yesterday's run are hardly reaching the exposed south coast here on the 12Z run!
Cornwall and south Wales looking like getting the worst of it. Any further south and France will be in play. :pac:

Bsal

WRF winds from 06z run

maquiladora

Xenji

So what are the chances of this turning into a event around Mayo, or are we just looking at Cork and Kerry as it stands.

maquiladora

Xenji wrote: »

So what are the chances of this turning into a event around Mayo, or are we just looking at Cork and Kerry as it stands.

Starting to look again like not much more than a windy day apart from the exposed southern coasts, and even there it's looking a bit less windy on every run. There will be fierce winds, but only out at sea. But at least it'll look nice on the satellite passing over. In fact the center could well pass directly over Mayo so for a time you'll have the lightest winds anywhere in the country. :pac:

howlinwolf

Yeah I don't think anywhere in Ireland will see anything not even the far south, south of England could get hit again though

pad199207

Met Eireann now giving a warning of Force 10 on Southern Coasts

leahyl

Oh for Gods sake, I'm sick of all this false hope....I'm getting a case of deja vu :pac:

sunbabe08

thought that was a joke. holy smokes. orange status on met eireann:eek::eek::D bring it on

maquiladora

sunbabe08 wrote: »

thought that was a joke. holy smokes. orange status on met eireann:eek::eek::D bring it on

It's a marine alert though. I wouldn't fancy being out on a boat.

Cantona's Collars

On the topic of rough seas,interesting doc on NatgeoWild now.Explains a lot about these storms.

maquiladora

The last view before sunset.

ninebeanrows

Just to further assist our watch on this storm, the M6 buoy has gone blink. Hasn't updated since 3pm.

- Wouldn't be surprised to see a 70kt gust in the southwest/south coast tomorrow.

Places like Valentia/Sherkin

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Just to further assist our watch on this storm, the M6 buoy has gone blink. Hasn't updated since 3pm.

- Wouldn't be surprised to see a 70kt gust in the southwest/south coast tomorrow.

Places like Valentia/Sherkin

Hopefully the M6 comes back online. It was down for 2 hours earlier this morning.

70 knots sounds a tad high!