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Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

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    #62
    Wicklow Weather
    Registered Users Posts: 84 ✭✭Wicklow Weather


    I only see a more realistic output now that the GFS has settled down to more likely upper temps and not the -14's and -12's that were astonishing and unrealistic. Wait and see how the ECM and UKMO pan out.


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    #63
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    The GFS 12z is still amazingly good for cold and snow lovers (only a slight downgrade). However do not get excited as small enough changes could cause the cold to go further south. ECM 12z, as well as model runs up until Friday evening will be crucial


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    #64
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Folks dilution of cold is expected and changes will happen from run to run. Don't be taking to heart.

    Enjoy the evolution.


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    #65
    jon burrows
    Registered Users Posts: 366 ✭✭jon burrows


    Redsunset wrote: »
    Folks dilution of cold is expected and changes will happen from run to run. Don't be taking to heart.

    Enjoy the evolution.

    You spelled Roller coaster wrong there :)


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    #66
    Solair
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭Solair


    In Cork City this will probably mean cold drizzle as per usual :)


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    #67
    snaps
    Registered Users Posts: 7,138 ✭✭✭snaps


    Have to admit the charts look very tasty. But its a shame this wasn't a month ago. Need warmth now, garden is coming to life, I've spent a fortune on heating this winter. I'm sure there will be the usual t96 downgrades, then we see on sky news that the UK are getting plastered!


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    #68
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Can anyone tell me if there's any way of determining surface temps from 850s?


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    #69
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    I think its t850 +5 degrees c = surface temp (t850 is temp at 5,000 feet (1,500 m) above sea level)


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    #70
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Can anyone tell me if there's any way of determining surface temps from 850s?
    Several factors at play.
    850 air is at 5000ft asl so temp falls roughly 2c for every 1000ft meaning -10 air at that height is 0c at sea level.
    However the sun will heat it nearer the surface at this time of the year(it has 11hrs of opportunity almost) and also urban heat islands,the sea as it passes over,the temp of the air in the drop zone and at ground level at the flows source and at all points in between.
    Mathematicians have tools to make a stab at it.But as we await the Ecm,let's say it will be cold enough for snow period(!) as things stand.
    -12 or -14 850 air over us in an unstable atmosphere even in march would be mayhem and certainly ice days for most.


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    #71
    gabeeg
    Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    Interesting. Thanks.


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    #72
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    I already like the similarities between the ECM and GFS 12z at 96 hours


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    #73
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    12z ECM and 12z GFS are like identical twins.

    [IMG]http:[/img]ECM1-120_fld1.GIF

    [IMG][/img]gfs-0-120_sre3.png


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    #74
    dacogawa
    Registered Users Posts: 1,836 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    ECM falling into line, not getting my hopes up till Thu night/Fri morning

    ECM0-120.GIF?06-0


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    #75
    whitebriar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭whitebriar


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Interesting. Thanks.
    No problem.
    Loads of other factors too,many of which favour snow landing on our doorstep Monday by the looks of the ecm 12 z now aswell.


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    #76
    mickger844posts
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,466 Mod ✭✭✭✭mickger844posts


    ECM 12z has -10 uppers over most of the country by Monday. Amazing charts for this time of year or any time of year in fact.


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    #77
    angelclar
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭angelclar


    snow mid march . not in belmullet we get wind & mist as pernormal


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    #78
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    If the charts look this good come Friday i will get excited,have seen good charts so many time this winter only for the cold to fade away near the time, there could be quite a bit of snow around if those charts came to pass all the same


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    #79
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    The Irish sea AKA The Snow Machine should be busy cooking up a storm if this comes off.


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    #80
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    ECM backs the UKMO evolution imo and eventhough Monday sees some awesome uppers it's a 48 hour event at most as no proper Greenland high develops aka Winter 12/13!!
    It looks dry and very cold to me away from exposed coasts and is a hare's breath away from zilch


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    #81
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    What's wrong with a 24-48 hour event? It's weather and very welcome here to discuss. Oh yes it's the Weather forum.
    Check.


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    #82
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Redsunset wrote: »
    What's wrong with a 24-48 hour event? It's weather and very welcome here to discuss. Oh yes it's the Weather forum.
    Check.
    Nothing it's fab but we have been here before and I would put my last dollar on that high sinking even further making us bone dry. As it stands the charts are JUST ok but as I said they are a hare's breath away from being cold an dry


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    #83
    rahmalec
    Registered Users Posts: 193 ✭✭rahmalec


    Balls! The one time when I won't be around!


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    #84
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    And at 192hrs the cold is gone.
    Yawn... it's back to the footie for me lol
    Severe frost Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights is what I see


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    #85
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    And at 192hrs the cold is gone.
    Yawn... it's back to the footie for me lol
    Severe frost Sunday, Monday and Tuesday nights is what I see

    Bye then.


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    #86
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I notice there has already been a 2 degree adjustment since the 06Z GFS. I wouldn't be surprised to see -8 instead of -10 over Ireland on tomorrow mornings runs. There could even be further adjustments beyond that, as we have seen that type of thing happen several times before.... It could also end up being more dry here depending on how that high sinks.


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    #87
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I'm expecting eventual -6 to -8 uppers myself. Same old story around here with people getting in a twist over nothing.


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    #88
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Some very obscure views on here.

    The depth of the cold depends on the strength of the advection which GFS is gunning for to be most intense, previous ECM runs had a slacker flow but has really pumped up the flow this evening, hence last nights -8c are now -10c and -12c.

    I would expect the exact evolution the ECM takes after 120hrs to be somewhat of an outlier in its EPS.

    It would appear the most likely scenario os a brief less cold 24/48hrs before another pulse of cold from the north with blocking set to dominate over Greenland in the medium term.

    Initial watch for Severe Cold Plunge late Sunday/Monday with snow for many now probable. Eastern areas obviously most at risk of the most substantial stuff.


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    #89
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,884 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Some very obscure views on here.


    Initial watch for Severe Cold Plunge late Sunday/Monday with snow for many now probable. Eastern areas obviously most at risk of the most substantial stuff.

    How can you see so much snow WC with the high pressure cell so near to the North? Granted if the charts came off as is, it would be good for coastal areas but surely the slightest of nudges South tomorrow of that high pressure and the cold uppers are gone leaving us cold and dry.

    The form horse for me is that the high will be further South leaving us cold and dry. Let's hope what I say is wrong but remembered if i'm right!


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    #90
    DanRu
    Registered Users Posts: 32 ✭DanRu


    Wow, some really great charts, moreover is the fact that this is happening in mid March. Now, where did I put that animated admit one gif!


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    #91
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Met UK now appear to be on board with the BBC forecast just before the 7pm news confirming that it will turn much colder as freezing air seeps in from the north and east late weekend. The snow was also mentioned.

    Latest charts also look great.

    Might this actually happen ? :rolleyes:

    D


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