Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

icesnowfrost

Bring on the snow

Rock Lesnar

Lads this is probably in the wrong place but whats the story with the charts on Met Eireann and Raintoday, according to them since around midnight its been Raining here to some extent, but we have'nt had a drop .

They've been very accurate in the past 3-6 months but they seem way off today

maquiladora

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Lads this is probably in the wrong place but whats the story with the charts on Met Eireann and Raintoday, according to them since around midnight its been Raining here to some extent, but we have'nt had a drop .

They've been very accurate in the past 3-6 months but they seem way off today

Light precipitation not reaching the surface in significant amounts.

Cantona's Collars

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Lads this is probably in the wrong place but whats the story with the charts on Met Eireann and Raintoday, according to them since around midnight its been Raining here to some extent, but we have'nt had a drop .

They've been very accurate in the past 3-6 months but they seem way off today

It's all moved to Wexford,hasn't stopped here.Now if this was snow......:)

highdef

maquiladora wrote: »

Light precipitation not reaching the surface in significant amounts.

Plus rain shadow from the Dublin/Wicklow mountains. Been raining since early morning at home on the Kildare/Meath border. By the time I got to Lucan this morning, it was dry and here in Dublin it has barely rained. Still raining at home as I type. Textbook rain shadow effect in action.

Weathering

whitebriar wrote: »

Cheltenham might escape the worst as these are norteasterlies .
Cheltenham would have similar precip chances as galway or limerick, ie mainly dry.
I expressed my thoughts on the weather for next week in the now closed ramping thread and I haven't changed my mind except it might actually a couple of degrees colder.
Expect thundersnow in the east,temps barely above freezing at their warmest and a lot of lying snow.
Because of the longer sunlight,the showers will make it west but the east us going to get the works,I'm convinced of that.
That's anywhere from Louth to east cork with special mention to south Dublin,Kildare Wicklow wexford and Waterford.
This is the M1 motorway for cold and snow in Ireland and if you look at any projected NH pattern for next week and trace the isobars,the flow comes to us from the pole via Siberia and Scandinavia.
A colder source or route,you could not get in my opinion.
It appears strong enough to hit the mid Atlantic, which means trouble in the sense that lows out there will be southerly tracking,they'll try to skoot south of this airflow.
That means potentially this pattern when it locks in will be difficult to shift.

You quoted the wrong personI have no interest in horses..I was taking the p. Nice Informative post

DOCARCH

whitebriar wrote: »

Cheltenham would have similar precip chances as galway or limerick, ie mainly dry.

...maybe not a problem with snow for Cheltenham...but the frost/ice will not help the racing. Would expect very low overnight temps and ice days there early next week (if models verify).

BTW, nice ramp WB!

Weathering

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Welcome back

I didn't go anywhere. I was lurking like a creep in a bush with respiratory condition the whole time.

I'm an unlucky B so I didn't want to jinx anything for you boardsies. If it goes t1ts up now blame me I deserve it

patneve2

The GFS 06Z is one of those "out of this world" model runs. -14s drifting across the Irish sea in a biting NE wind, add in that march sunshine and there is good scope for v heavy convective snow and graupel showers that will NOT die a slow death as they penetrate inland. I seriously doubt that it will play out as the GFS is saying, but there still are v good chances for some snow in the next two week window say.

pauldry

This is very exciting indeed. Seriously looks like the coldest spell of the season according to current models.

Iancar29

Cant believe the correlation on such a deep cold pool over us on all the ensembles!!!



Im here to back up WB's thoughts that well have thundersnow in the east!

And heres why!....



20º range between SSTs and 850s!!! :eek:


#Bringonthethundersnow

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AL4vou2tars

EDIT: FIXed links

Terms and conditions apply , noobie discretion advised this forecast is showing the potential outcome on CURRENT model runs and is by no means a definite at this early stage.

Daniel2590

Link's broken to your images Ian

Iancar29

Thanks , fixed

Daniel2590

GFS +126:






December 2010:






Of course.. not ramping here at all :pac:

MrDerp

ah FFS I'm out the country for most of next week. Looks like I'll be getting a week of ice days in Europe, without the snow. Misery!

Harry Deerpark

From Wikipedia:

Lake effect thundersnow occurs after a cold front or shortwave aloft passes by, which steepens the lapse rates between the lake temperature and the temperatures aloft. A difference in temperature of 45°F (25°C) or greater between the lake temperature and the temperature around 5000 feet/1500 meters (the 850 hPa level) usually marks the onset of thundersnow if surface temperatures are expected to be below freezing. However there are several factors affecting its development and other geographical elements. The primary factor is convective depth; this is the vertical depth in the troposphere that a parcel of air will rise from the ground before it reaches the equilibrium (EQL) level and stops rising. A minimum depth of 0.9 mi (1.5 km) is necessary and an average depth of 1.8 mi (3 km) or more is generally accepted as sufficient. Wind shear is also a significant factor, linear snow squall bands produce more thundersnow than clustered bands, thus a directional wind shear with a change of less than 54° between the ground and 1.2 mi (2 km) in height must be in place, any change in direction greater than 54° through that layer will tear the snow squall apart. A bare minimum fetch of 30 mi (50 km) is required in order for air passing over the lake or ocean water to sufficiently saturate with moisture and acquire thermal energy from the water. The last component is the echo top or storm top temperature, which must be at least −22°F (−30°C). It is generally accepted that there is no longer any super cooled water vapor present in a cloud at this temperature but rather ice crystals suspended in the air. This allows for the interaction of the ice cloud and graupel pellets within the storm to generate a charge and create lightning or thunder as a result

The reason why we got thundersnow in 2010 was because the sea temperature was much warmer in November than it is at this time of year.

DOCARCH

Harry Deerpark wrote: »

The reason why we got thundersnow in 2010 was because the sea temperature was much warmer in November than it is at this time of year.

Indeed. SSTs at the end of November in the Irish Sea are around 12.5c.

At this time of the year, they are around 7.5c so you need really very cold air to generate deep convection.

An upper air temp of around -12c would do for the end of November...at this time of year you need upper air temp of around -18c for the same effect.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The run going nicely so far

TheMilkyPirate

DOCARCH wrote: »

...maybe not a problem with snow for Cheltenham...but the frost/ice will not help the racing. Would expect very low overnight temps and ice days there early next week (if models verify).

BTW, nice ramp WB!

Shut up shut up shut up!!!

Now if it snowed here for a week straight and cheltenham got away with it I'd be happy with that

red_bairn

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed. SSTs at the end of November in the Irish Sea are around 12.5c.

At this time of the year, they are around 7.5c so you need really very cold air to generate deep convection.

An upper air temp of around -12c would do for the end of November...at this time of year you need upper air temp of around -18c for the same effect.

So we want to cross our fingers for -18c.

Redsunset

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

Larbre34

Redsunset wrote: »

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

I'll give you three. Cor. Blimey. Guv'nor.

Daniel2590

-12 uppers have moved about 200 miles east... hope it doesn't go this way again.

TheMilkyPirate

Redsunset wrote: »

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

Ominous will do.

Redsunset

Daniel2590 wrote: »

-12 uppers have moved about 200 miles east... hope it doesn't go this way again.

Relax tis hardly a downgrade given the set up. Serious snow cover from as is charts.

DOCARCH

Redsunset wrote: »

I have no words for the 12z GFS so far.

Good?...Bad?...I'm too frightened to look!

Wicklow Weather

The GFS 12z is like going to heaven for cold lovers even better than the 06z, how is that possible!!!!

Daniel2590

Redsunset wrote: »

Relax tis hardly a downgrade given the set up. Serious snow cover from as is charts.

Only problem is if the -10's are next to move 200 miles east... then the -8's... Not like that hasn't happened before :P

Redsunset

Right that'll do pig, that'll do.

Roll on the crucial Ecm

power101

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

The GFS 12z is like going to heaven for cold lovers even better than the 06z, how is that possible!!!!

I can only see a big downgrade between the 12z and the 06z? -14 uppers are no longer widespread over the country. I would say a pull back of the cold of between 300 - 400 miles east. If this happens again over another run the cold would be pretty much gone.