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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

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Comments

  • #502
    kstand
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭kstand


    A crow report would be greatly appreciated at this juncture Sponge Bob. I feel we are at some sort of a threshold.


  • #503
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    kstand wrote: »
    A crow report would be greatly appreciated at this juncture Sponge Bob. I feel we are at some sort of a threshold.

    Thick fog and accurate crow observation does not for make Kstand. :cool:


  • #504
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Another excellent ECM 32 day update, with an E or NE'ly signalled between the 23rd/29th Jan, as per EC Det
    Matt Hugo


  • #505
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Oh it gets better
    ECM 32 Day - 6th - 12th Feb high pressure over Greenland/NW UK & low pressure to the S or SE with further N or NE'lies - a cold EC 32 update
    Matt Hugo


  • #506
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    @redsunset

    Beyond day 10,that 32 day ensemble is like looking at tea leaves useless!

    You go back over matt Hugo's twitter posts and see what he was saying about the ecm a month ago,a forthnight ago and you'll see that it's with all due respect to you nonsense to say it gets better if the 32 dayer says we'll have a block to the NW on feb 14th.
    It may aswell say we will have widespread tornado's!

    Point being and point often being forgotten in the ether here lately is that FI is still FI no matter who is tweeting it.
    Beyond 10 days is virtually useless in my humble opinion right now even with the ECM,with model output being in such a state of flux.

    Don't get carried away!
    I'm sure Matt's brief twitter comments are more a statement of the eye candy rather than a belief that they could ever verify.


  • #507
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    This is no time for pragmatism, Black. Did you not know that snowysteria has set in? :p

    6Z GFS rolling out. Would be more inclined to wait until after the 12z before commenting on the model and whether it is holding its own or falling into line with the ECM. It certainly did make some movement toward the ECM's line of thinking overnight.


  • #508
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    It's certainly set in on you alright lol
    I've never seen such a transformation into looking for it under every dusty crevice of the models :p


  • #509
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    blackius wrote: »
    @redsunset

    say it gets better if the 32 dayer says we'll have a block to the NW on feb 14th.
    It may aswell say we will have widespread tornado's!
    .

    Widespread tornados on Valentine's Day you say! I'm going to ring the Daily Mail straight away - I can see it now "A leading meteorologist has predicted widespread tornados on 14 February. Experts are already dubbing it the Valentine's Day Tornado Massacre..."


  • #510
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    This is no time for pragmatism, Black. Did you not know that snowysteria has set in? :p
    The fog is clearing around here thank God, I'll check the crows.


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  • #511
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The fog is clearing around here thank God, I'll check the crows.
    :rolleyes:

    Anyway back to we're starting to look good for the cold :D


  • #512
    kstand
    Registered Users Posts: 1,248 ✭✭✭kstand


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    The fog is clearing around here thank God, I'll check the crows.

    Check them immediately.


  • #513
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    blackius wrote: »
    @redsunset

    Beyond day 10,that 32 day ensemble is like looking at tea leaves useless!

    You go back over matt Hugo's twitter posts and see what he was saying about the ecm a month ago,a forthnight ago and you'll see that it's with all due respect to you nonsense to say it gets better if the 32 dayer says we'll have a block to the NW on feb 14th.
    It may aswell say we will have widespread tornado's!

    Point being and point often being forgotten in the ether here lately is that FI is still FI no matter who is tweeting it.
    Beyond 10 days is virtually useless in my humble opinion right now even with the ECM,with model output being in such a state of flux.

    Don't get carried away!
    I'm sure Matt's brief twitter comments are more a statement of the eye candy rather than a belief that they could ever verify.
    yes of course and I know this but I should think of new members that take it as gospel and make a health warning or perhaps not post it at all. Point taken


  • #514
    Duiske
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    GFS still refusing to play ball on this. Actually, at 168 its picked up the ball, given the crowd the finger and stomped off home. Going to an interesting weekend waiting to see which model has this correct.


  • #515
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,167 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Yeah the 6z GFS has positively mild weather around 21 Jan as opposed to the Wild Bill Blizzard. Its v hard to reconcile such differences 8 days out.......(in fact differences start earlier than that)


  • #516
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    The UKMO has drifted from its similar output to the ECM out to 144hrs which is not good news. The UKMO is indicating a less cold outlook for Wed into Thursday as it shifts the tilt of the jetstream from easterly to northeasterly. A sign that it may be siding with the GEFS output? We will find out in the next run or two.


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  • #517
    200motels
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    The UKMO has drifted from its similar output to the ECM out to 144hrs which is not good news. The UKMO is indicating a less cold outlook for Wed into Thursday as it shifts the tilt of the jetstream from easterly to northeasterly. A sign that it may be siding with the GEFS output? We will find out in the next run or two.
    I think we could have missed the boat on this supposedly cold spell. I know the models are all over the place and it's hard to get a grip on things but I don't think we're going to get any major cold spell this winter.


  • #518
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    200motels wrote: »
    I think we could have missed the boat on this supposedly cold spell. I know the models are all over the place and it's hard to get a grip on things but I don't think we're going to get any major cold spell this winter.

    Well it is a boat that I hope is hijacked and kept away from Ireland.


  • #519
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Anyone watching the models will need to keep an eye on the HP ridge building up off Canada coast into Greenland on Thur/Fri of next week. It's positioning is critical to the extent of any cold. The further south or east it shifts, the closer we will be to what the GEFS is indicating i.e. cool not cold.

    Just two more points, the medium range forecasting ability of either the ECM or GEFS will be in for some criticism over the next two weeks. The ECM has been consistently pointing since the weekend to some relatively severe cold for the UK and Ireland around the weekend of 21-22, while the GEFS has been consistently inconsistent since the weekend up to yesterday. The latter has now pointed to a more cool zonal setup.

    While the ECM is being touted widely as the form model we could potentially end up with the ECM and GFS meeting half way leaving us in a setup not too dissimilar to the first three weeks of December when our weather was dominated by mild sw interrupted by brief but often wintry NW-northerlies. I do not not see it being as mild as the GEFS is making it out to be.

    EDIT: Delw's UKMO update there would suggest that a middle ground of the ECM and GEFS is being considered by them.


  • #520
    delw
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,655 ✭✭✭delw


    UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2012 to Friday 27 Jan 2012:

    Showers or longer spells of rain on Wednesday, with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills. Drier, brighter spells are most likely across the south and east of the UK. Conditions late next week and through the weekend remaining unsettled with a risk of wintry showers, especially in the north and over high ground, and also a risk of overnight frosts in quieter spells. The changeable conditions are expected to continue through into the last week of January with some spells of milder, wetter weather and also spells of brighter, colder and showery weather with frosty nights.
    Updated: 1129 on Fri 13 Jan 2012


  • #521
    weatherfiend
    Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭weatherfiend


    All this is not good for the heart!! The frosty feel today is just great


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  • #522
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    delw wrote: »
    UK Outlook for Wednesday 18 Jan 2012 to Friday 27 Jan 2012:

    Showers or longer spells of rain on Wednesday, with rain most persistent in northern and western parts of the UK, where strong, perhaps gale force winds are possible at times. Turning colder from the northwest through Thursday, with snow becoming increasingly likely across hills. Drier, brighter spells are most likely across the south and east of the UK. Conditions late next week and through the weekend remaining unsettled with a risk of wintry showers, especially in the north and over high ground, and also a risk of overnight frosts in quieter spells. The changeable conditions are expected to continue through into the last week of January with some spells of milder, wetter weather and also spells of brighter, colder and showery weather with frosty nights.
    Updated: 1129 on Fri 13 Jan 2012


    Thats a real mash up of all possible scenarios !

    sitting_on_the_fence_lg_wht.gif


  • #523
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Crow Report 13/01/2012

    The local Crows here in Galway appear to have ceased their rutting activities from earlier this week and are now largely seen in particular trees and in pairs. However they appear to be inspecting a future nest location in the main and are not actually nesting....as in carrying and arranging twigs to and in a location centred on a particular tree.

    I expect further developments (if any) by the middle of next week and will report then. No stormy events are showing up in any significant models that would unravel the Crows good work so I quite honestly expect to see twigs in place by then.

    Naturally you are all welcome to inspect your own local rookery and report back here.

    /Crow Report


  • #524
    talkabout
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 695 ✭✭✭talkabout


    Can the crow reports please be moved to a more appropriate thread?


  • #525
    john mayo 10
    Registered Users Posts: 962 ✭✭✭john mayo 10


    talkabout wrote: »
    Can the crow reports please be moved to a more appropriate thread?
    +1


  • #526
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    john mayo 10 wrote: »
    +1
    +2


  • #527
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    ECM ensemble mean at 168hrs shows very good agreement for a cold Northwesterly and snow showers - turning very cold at night from next Wednesday aswell with widespread frost and icy patches. It's from Wednesday temperatures are really gonna struggle.


    Further on the ensemble agreement is rock solid on the trough sinking South and bringing in either a Northeasterly or Easterly over the weekend. That means potential snow showers or longer periods of sleet and snow particularly in the East. But it's a while out yet. Like I say good agreement on the ECM ensembles. And no sign so far of a breakdown either with pressure rising to the North. If the ECM is right, typically as we have seen over recent years, we could be on the verge of a prolonged period of very cold weather. Could be.

    EDM1-168.GIF?13-12


  • #528
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    darkman2 wrote: »
    ECM ensemble mean at 168hrs shows very good agreement for a cold Northwesterly and snow showers - turning very cold at night from next Wednesday aswell with widespread frost and icy patches. It's from Wednesday temperatures are really gonna struggle.


    Further on the ensemble agreement is rock solid on the trough sinking South and bringing in either a Northeasterly or Easterly over the weekend. That means potential snow showers or longer periods of sleet and snow particularly in the East. But it's a while out yet. Like I say good agreement on the ECM ensembles. And no sign so far of a breakdown either with pressure rising to the North. If the ECM is right, typically as we have seen over recent years, we could be on the verge of a prolonged period of very cold weather. Could be.

    EDM1-168.GIF?13-12
    I know it's a while out yet, but maybe snow or south east if it dd happen?


  • #529
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Not a very intense low
    Where is the moisture coming out of. ????
    Or is it likely to be frost instead???


  • #530
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    only one wrote: »
    I know it's a while out yet, but maybe snow or south east if it dd happen?
    No North west, wind flows anti clock wise in northern hem low pressure On chart shown


  • #531
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    talkabout wrote: »
    Can the crow reports please be moved to a more appropriate thread?

    There is a thread for it here :


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75790476


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  • #532
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    only one wrote: »
    I know it's a while out yet, but maybe snow or south east if it dd happen?
    Initially an Ulster /North connaught,maybe north leinster event but as that low slides south the highs would link in the Atlantic and the tilt of the slider low would bring winds probably from the NE and East focusing the attention on louth,meath,Dublin,Wicklow and wexford for snow showers.
    Not so sure of waterford as this is not a big low but unstable -9 850's or lower should they come would explode convection in the irish sea
    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Not a very intense low
    Where is the moisture coming out of. ????
    Or is it likely to be frost instead???
    The artic...and yes frost for sheltered areas,probably severe.
    redsunset wrote: »
    No North west, wind flows anti clock wise in northern hem low pressure On chart shown
    Yes but when that low falls into the netherlands,they would be either north easterly or easterly.
    The set up would mean that those NE/East winds could be there for a while.
    The Northwesterly would be a temporary one whilst the low was moving down-day or two possibly max.

    It's a week away so lets see what creeps into the reliable.

    I am completely uncertain but it's nice to see something as interesting as the above creep as far as only 7 days out as it is.

    It could be all gone before the timeline reaches the reliable.

    #rollercoaster


  • #533
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    which is more reliable the ecm or the gfs the reason i ask it beacuse of the snow and cold the ecm keeps pointing to


  • #534
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    blackius wrote: »
    Not so sure of waterford as this is not a big low but unstable -9 850's or lower should they come would explode convection in the irish sea

    Its these streamers that in my experience anyway have provided the snow for Waterford. We get the cold, thats not an issue!, but any bad snow has come from an hour or two of heavy streamers that have appeared 2 or 3 times during 24/48hr cold spells.

    The snow precip from the North is often blocked out by our 'Comeragh Mountain Shield', but I do remember in 2010 watching for the streamers to provide and oh they did! :)


  • #535
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    which is more reliable the ecm or the gfs the reason i ask it beacuse of the snow and cold the ecm keeps pointing to

    Thats the problem, The ecm is normally the more reliable one, and the ukmo were backing the Ecm yesterday, But it backed off slightly this morning, and the gfs is really sticking to its own runs. Going to be a very tough one to call, Its really a sit on the fence situation.


  • #536
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    tzfrantic wrote: »
    which is more reliable the ecm or the gfs the reason i ask it because of the snow and cold the ecm keeps pointing to
    Generally the ECM but they are all good usually within 48 to 96hrs which is the timeframe most users of weather forecasts are interested in.

    It's hard to know what to think at the moment but this has happened before and gradually within the 96 hours to 120 hours ahead model outputs do usually somewhat converge.

    As a starting point though,it's always usually cheery to see the ECM advocating the weather type you want but right now,the big GFS seems to be saying black to the ECM's white if you pardon the pun.

    Model disagreement as stark as that means we just don't know yet other than hunches.


  • #537
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    GEFS 12z rolling out now.

    At 72hrs it looks to be edging slightly toward the ECM line of thinking.

    Jetstream is angled more NNE than NE, while ridging is taking place closer to the coast of eastern canada than shown in the 6z run.

    UPDATE

    Looking very similar to ECM out to Wednesday afternoon.
    Jet is making sure though that any cold is less aggressive as it nears Ireland than is seen on ECM. That said it does bring the cold further south on this run.

    UPDATE

    At 126hrs early Thursday - ridging to our west is collapsing allowing a quickly developing low pressure system over the atlantic (In ECM this LP system is forced up over Greenland). Looking like as you were for GEFS beyond this point. Some small developments in the first 120hrs or so since the 06z run though.

    UPDATE

    It's more or less as you were for the GFS with the exception of some ridging into Greenland around 240hrs or so.

    UPDATE
    UKMO 12z continuing to look similar to ECM, which is a positive sign for those looking for cold.

    Cue next run of ECM - will it now back down on its cold outlook or will the Friday 13th standoff continue? The 12z ECM will start rolling out at 6pm IMT


  • #538
    tzfrantic
    Registered Users Posts: 126 ✭✭tzfrantic


    with the cold in the us does that have any effect on the jetstream and it's position


  • #539
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    From what I can see the GFS develops an intense low south of Iceland on Monday night which doesn't appear on UKMO or ECMWF, another low over the US deepens as well which stops stops the ridge moving north towards Greenland. Can't see the jet on the other two but I assume its the main cause of the difference at the moment.


  • #540
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Harps wrote: »
    From what I can see the GFS develops an intense low south of Iceland on Monday night which doesn't appear on UKMO or ECMWF, another low over the US deepens as well which stops stops the ridge moving north towards Greenland. Can't see the jet on the other two but I assume its the main cause of the difference at the moment.

    Ultimately, it's the failure of the high to build off eastern canada into Greenland as happens on the ECM. This indeed does happen at around 240hrs in the gefs but that is way to far our to be read into in any great detail. The GFS pushes that low near Iceland much further south in this run alright which has the effect of dragging colder air further south over us on Thursday than was shown on the previous GFS run.

    The fear now is that the ECM will lose its consistency and follow the GFS lead in downgrading any ridging toward Greenland next week. Or the ECM could stand its ground which would leave us in an unusual situation i.e. having the GEFS and ECM being very different 5 days out.


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  • #541
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,135 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Just FYI I was looking at the last 2 winters and the threads and which run gave a better of indication of what actually came; ECM beat GFS 3-1. GFS however was far more accurate than the ECM at about 96hrs.


  • #542
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    Ultimately, it's the failure of the high to build off eastern canada into Greenland as happens on the ECM. This indeed does happen at around 240hrs in the gefs but that is way to far our to be read into in any great detail. The GFS pushes that low near Iceland much further south in this run alright which has the effect of dragging colder air further south over us on Thursday than was shown on the previous GFS run.

    The fear now is that the ECM will lose its consistency and follow the GFS lead in downgrading any ridging toward Greenland next week. Or the ECM could stand its ground which would leave us in an unusual situation i.e. having the GEFS and ECM being very different 5 days out.

    I think we will see a back down from the Ecm later, will be more off a half way house situation something like the UKMO are showing.


  • #543
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Yeah I'd be surprised to see the ECM win on this one for a change, usually the other way about, guess we'll know in half an hour or so anyway


  • #544
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    While you're waiting for ECM....

    An Accuweather article comparing the GFS and ECM for accuracy

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097


  • #545
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    ECM seems to be holding its own up to 120hrs
    ECM0-120sgi9_mini.png

    ECH0-120tqh3_mini.png


  • #546
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Waiting for this ECM is nailbiting !


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  • #547
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    t|nt|n wrote: »
    Waiting for this ECM is nailbiting !

    Trending more towards the Gfs


  • #548
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Harps wrote: »
    From what I can see the GFS develops an intense low south of Iceland on Monday night which doesn't appear on UKMO or ECMWF

    That low is a new feature of the 12z run. There were no storms 'out there' until that one showed up. I would start to take it seriously were it still in the next 00z because GFS does not invent false signal or one run only storms that often.


  • #549
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Trending more towards the Gfs

    No it's not! Vastly different to GFS at 144hrs.


  • #550
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    That low is a new feature of the 12z run. There were no storms 'out there' until that one showed up. I would start to take it seriously were it still in the next 00z because GFS does not invent false signal or one run only storms that often.

    First run I really looked at since Wednesday night so not sure what the last few runs have been showing, the storm is showing on the ECMWF now as well I see

    Anyway ECM is out to 144h now, seems to be sticking to its guns so far


  • #551
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,030 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    144 looks better

    [IMG][/img]ECM1-144_mlt2.GIF


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