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Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

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    #302
    irishmotorist
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,268 ✭✭✭irishmotorist


    Vudgie wrote: »
    I have seen people ask before and apologies for asking again but can someone give me an idiot proof way of confirming ASL height.

    Just want to see if I am going to be eating canned food this weekend!!:D

    Is OSI the best place to try?
    thetonynator wrote: »
    Not the most accurate for height really, there are some sites for it cant remember which ones though!

    iso=euro&data=0&type=0&rnd=1294324414[/IMG]

    I think this fella was linked here before...
    http://www.earthtools.org/


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    #303
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Isn't meteoalram updated by each country's own weather service.
    So it just mirrors what Met Eireann are saying (I Think).


    Yes thats true.


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    #304
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Does not look to me like the precipitation will get any further North then North Leinster. I think I should briefly go through counties expected to be effected on the latest high resolution runs.


    Let's start with the South of the country



    Co's Kerry, Cork and Waterford

    An area of rain and sleet will get into these counties as dawn appraoches. Sleet on coasts but as the band of precipitation makes it's way inland it will turn immediately to snow to low levels but only for a short time. By mid morning after some early accumulations these counties should have mostly rain and a thaw of lying snow (this may freeze tomorrow night bringing tricky driving conditions for Saturday). Temperatures will start off below freezing but will gradually climb to 2 or 3c later in the day.

    Co's Wexford, Wicklow, Kilkenny, Tipperary, Carlow, Laois, Offaly, Limerick, Clare


    Snow will reach these counties during the early afternoon. Initial accumulations of 5 or 6cms. This initial band should be shortlived but heavier snow should occur for a time in the afternoon. This will turn more sleety through the evening and may turn to rain for a little while and clear early tomorrow night with a little back edge sleet or snow again. Temperatures reaching highs of 1 or 2c.

    Co's Dublin, Meath, Louth, West Meath, Kildare and Cavan.

    Snow reaching these counties sometime around mid afternoon. Moderate or heavy snow is expected for a while which will turn sleety later in the evening and may turn to rain for a short time tomorrow night. A brief thaw of any lying snow should occur but will freeze again tomorrow night. Again 5 or 6cms.


    On higher elevations as usual more snow and accumulations. Eleswhere in the country apart from Southeast Ulster it should remain mostly if not completely dry tomorrow. It seems unlikely now that any of this will reach North Connaught and most of Ulster. Let's see what the 12z model runs make of it.


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    #305
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,968 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Wexford?


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    #306
    thetonynator
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭thetonynator


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    Isn't meteoalram updated by each country's own weather service.
    So it just mirrors what Met Eireann are saying (I Think).


    Yeah it is as far as i know, but it looks good on the map anyway!


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    #307
    homer simpson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭homer simpson


    But wait the title says Friday / Saturday, or does that only apply to the Capital??? Cos its snowing, and very heavy here, looking at the sky i don't think there will be much though (heres hoping)


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    #308
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    well done DM

    excellent post


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    #309
    MUSEIST
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Does not look to me like the precipitation will get any further North then North Leinster. I think I should briefly go through counties expected to be effected on the latest high resolution runs.


    Let's start with the South of the country



    Co's Kerry, Cork and Waterford

    An area of rain and sleet will get into these counties as dawn appraoches. Sleet on coasts but as the band of precipitation makes it's way inland it will turn immediately to snow to low levels but only for a short time. By mid morning after some early accumulations these counties should have mostly rain and a thaw of lying snow (this may freeze tomorrow night bringing tricky driving conditions for Saturday). Temperatures will start off below freezing but will gradually climb to 2 or 3c later in the day.

    Co's Wexford, Wicklow, Kilkenny, Carlow, Laois, Offaly, Limerick, Clare


    Snow will reach these counties during the early afternoon. Initial accumulations of 5 or 6cms. This initial band should be shortlived but heavier snow should occur for a time in the afternoon. This will turn more sleety through the evening and may turn to rain for a little while and clear early tomorrow night with a little back edge sleet or snow again. Temperatures reaching highs of 1 or 2c.

    Co's Dublin, Meath, Louth, West Meath, Kildare and Cavan.

    Snow reaching these counties sometime around mid afternoon. Moderate or heavy snow is expected for a while which will turn sleety later in the evening and may turn to rain for a short time tomorrow night. A brief thaw of any lying snow should occur but will freeze again tomorrow night. Again 5 or 6cms.


    On higher elevations as usual more snow and accumulations. Eleswhere in the country apart from Southeast Ulster it should remain mostly if not completely dry tomorrow. It seems unlikely now that any of this will reach North Connaught and most of Ulster. Let's see what the 12z model runs make of it.


    Does tipp no longer exist or do I just not get out much???


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    #310
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    MUSEIST wrote: »
    Does tipp no longer exist or do I just not get out much???

    Since September ye've been insufferable so best if we ignore ye for a while to bring ye back down to earth.


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    #311
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    from what it is worth, the latest NAE shows this precip making very little inroads into inland regions and further north.

    Let us see what the GFS shows.


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    #312
    kopfan77
    Registered Users Posts: 324 ✭✭kopfan77


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    well done DM

    excellent post

    +1


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    #313
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    from what it is worth, the latest NAE shows this precip making very little inroads into inland regions and further north.

    Let us see what the GFS shows.

    Terribly parachial question but if this system stays further south such that only its outer reaches hit Kerry/Cork/Waterford and the main body of the low stays at sea, could this help keep temps down enough such that whatever falls is of snow?


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    #314
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    from what it is worth, the latest NAE shows this precip making very little inroads into inland regions and further north.

    Let us see what the GFS shows.

    Nice! More chance of it staying as snow down here if the percip make little inroads inland.


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    #315
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    12z GFS does bring a greater potential for precip to be snow.

    A slacker gradient profile is projected with less easterly flow and more of a northerly tinge to the winds.

    Seems like a light band of snow will push through early tomorrow this will clear before a heavier band of precip pushes in, turning to rain and sleet in the east and south fringes, before turning to snow towards evening and overnight as it clears.


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    #316
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    I would consider the 12Z as a slight, very slight upgrade (temperature-wise). Funny how it coincides with an ever so slight expansion of the greenland high (compared to the 06Z run).


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    #317
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Terribly parachial question but if this system stays further south such that only its outer reaches hit Kerry/Cork/Waterford and the main body of the low stays at sea, could this help keep temps down enough such that whatever falls is of snow?

    It will certainly help!:)


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    #318
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    from what it is worth, the latest NAE shows this precip making very little inroads into inland regions and further north.

    Let us see what the GFS shows.

    Showing a delay in the fronts movement. Stops before Galway and looks like Athlone (myself) is right at the pivoting point before it moves off


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    #319
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    plenty of heavy snow showers feeding into the north and west, pushing well inland on saturday morn too


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    #320
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    plenty of heavy snow showers feeding into the north and west, pushing well inland on saturday morn too

    Looks like most of the country is set for a dusting after all :D


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    #321
    joe199
    Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭joe199


    cherryghost wrote: »
    Looks like most of the country is set for a dusting after all :D

    Ramp! :D


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    #322
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    latest HIRLAM

    click on nedbor
    http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm


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    #323
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    MUSEIST wrote: »
    Does tipp no longer exist or do I just not get out much???

    The good news is no :p


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    #324
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,889 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    For Cork folk, it's very hard to call.
    I'm beginning to think it could snow here because even though we are close to the warm air we are also closer to the heavy ppn.
    My call for Cork is snow before 6am, then rain mixed with dry spells. It could easily snow again before it clears though. If I had to pick a town that will do well in all this it would be Thurles


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    #325
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,889 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The UKMO brings heavy ppn nationwide i.e Cork/Dublin:D

    Seriously though i'm happy to call this a nationwide event now. mainly down to the angle of attack with winds always North of East.
    Expect Met Eireann to up the ante this evening.

    Yes it will be marginal and it wont snow all the time but it looks very notable


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    #326
    MUSEIST
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,258 ✭✭✭MUSEIST


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    If I had to pick a town that will do well in all this it would be Thurles

    :DI really hope your right:D


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    #327
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    JanuarySnowstor wrote: »
    For Cork folk, it's very hard to call.
    I'm beginning to think it could snow here because even though we are close to the warm air we are also closer to the heavy ppn.
    My call for Cork is snow before 6am, then rain mixed with dry spells. It could easily snow again before it clears though. If I had to pick a town that will do well in all this it would be Thurles

    I was actually going back through the thread for 9 Jan last year (sad I know) just to see what people were predicting in advance of the southerly low that time. You predicted very light snow for 12 hours in Cork (which went against the grain!) which was spot on so I'm very interested in this prediction now.

    Again I'm being parochial but from a Cork city / suburbs point of view people mistakenly think of the city as being on the coast but its not. The harbour distorts our perception but in reality Cork city is a good 10-15 inland from the southern coast. This can and often does make a difference.

    Interestingly the prediction gizmo on IWO, based on the 6z run, was showing rain for Carrigaline and Cobh but snow for CC. I know that's computer generated but it does just show that even that computer model didn't consider it fully coastal. It can work the other way too of course as in when we missed out on snow in late November that was too far south and hit Kinsale etc.....


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    #328
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    latest HIRLAM

    click on nedbor
    http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm


    Typical... when the heaviest precip. is due to arrive ill be in work! .... :mad:


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    #329
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Interesting.

    According to Hirlam there could be a period of Mod Snow even in Dublin from 9pm Friday until it clears around 2am

    It will all hinge around the exact trajectory of the Low, if i can move in in such a way as to limit the easterly influence then some decent falls of snow are possible.


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    #330
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Iancar29 wrote: »
    Typical... when the heaviest precip. is due to arrive ill be in work! .... :mad:

    Dog + Skis = Win :pac:


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    #331
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    The latest GFS output now totally rules out any snow potential for connaught and a lot of Clare. It has slid somewhat more to the south and east and there is potential for it to slide further south and east again in the next run at 9.30pm. The GFS basically seems to be falling more into line with NAE and UKMO i.e. the heaviest precip confines to extreme south and southeast with the larger band of precipitation moving into wales and SW england. Sounds like a familar story...

    ps...Rain is still the more likely outcome in dublin city, further inland the snow risk increases.


This discussion has been closed.
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