Significant Snow Risk Friday 7th/Saturday 8th January discussion

Wild Bill

Baltinglass is one cold spot! I lived there once, long time ago. :cool:

Wild Bill

jo06555 wrote: »

Whats the temp it needs to be for snow +1 in waterford now

Well, it snowed in Pangea today at +5C; but it won't stick unless it's zero, or thereabouts.

thomasj

Sonovagun wrote: »

The airport is on stand by for heavy snow on Monday.

Wait till you see they'll get it tomorrow or Saturday when they least expect it!

Snowman10

Is Carlow town gonna miss this snow? Elevation is roughly 50m

MUSEIST

Wild Bill wrote: »

Well, it snowed in Pangea today at +5C; but it won't stick unless it's zero, or thereabouts.

In Pangea, sorry I have a weird mind.:eek:

Ahorseofaman

temp at charleville nra station (10 miles from me at a lower elevation)is
-1.4 dp -4 heres hoping :D

although looking at rain today with an uneducated eye it looks like it might skirt us to the north east

thomasj

Very light rain shower at Clare hall. Drizzle. Bitterly cold though!

DrEvil

Sonovagun wrote: »

The airport is on stand by for heavy snow on Monday.

Where did you get this info?

ninebeanrows

thomasj wrote: »

Very light rain shower at Clare hall. Drizzle. Bitterly cold though!

huh? It is clear?

NIALL D

in south tipp , near clonmel cashel area.. -2.5 , 150m above sea level ...

everything is white outside , freezing hard , water frozen on the ground....

things lookin good snow should be on the way soon...

TheMilkyPirate

RTE news doing a piece on tomorrows event after the break.

Avns1s

Light snow shower here near Castlebar and it stuck!!! Cleared off again for now.

NIALL D

baraca wrote: »

RTE news doing a piece on tomorrows event after the break.

will be interesting to see what they have to say , and how things pan out tonight.....

force eleven

Meh. Even Jean has downgraded tomorrows event. At 7 she said sleet/snow into the midlands east and south. Now she is saying northwest Leinster, North Munster will probably escape. Really, from a 10 cm countrywide event on Monday, to the possiblity of a sprinkling over inland southeastern counties. My interest has now ended on this one. Bring on the next one...whenever that may be...:mad:

Vudgie

No mention of accumulation depths on the forecast. They kind of covered all the bases and pretty much mirrored what the experts here have said.

TheMilkyPirate

We'll all just have to wait and see tbh

WolfeIRE

Infrared satellite animation of tonight's front

latest gfs now has system tracking a little further north than depicted earlier and on RTE weather

Deep Easterly

Nice sat 24 animation showing the occlusion moving up against the weak ridge extending down from the NW :




Edit: Snap WolfeIRE!

thetonynator

force eleven wrote: »

Meh. Even Jean has downgraded tomorrows event. At 7 she said sleet/snow into the midlands east and south. Now she is saying northwest Leinster, North Munster will probably escape. Really, from a 10 cm countrywide event on Monday, to the possiblity of a sprinkling over inland southeastern counties. My interest has now ended on this one. Bring on the next one...whenever that may be...:mad:

Its only a downgrade for those further north, it was quite a positive forecast for me.

jo06555

Vudgie wrote: »

No mention of accumulation depths on the forecast. They kind of covered all the bases and pretty much mirrored what the experts here have said.

Can never get me head around met , they say basically everything will happen so cannot be wrong , they say now snow will fall along south later but it will be rain tommorrow , this morning they said it would be rain on very south and snow further inland , im sticking by whats bein said on here , rain for south coasts and snow further up

BEASTERLY

thetonynator wrote: »

Its only a downgrade for those further north, it was quite a positive forecast for me.

Yep, the less north it travels the better chance of areas for south keeping snow and not have it to turn to rain. Upgrades all the way since mondy!

thetonynator

darkman2 wrote: »

Does not look to me like the precipitation will get any further North then North Leinster. I think I should briefly go through counties expected to be effected on the latest high resolution runs.


Let's start with the South of the country



Co's Kerry, Cork and Waterford

An area of rain and sleet will get into these counties as dawn appraoches. Sleet on coasts but as the band of precipitation makes it's way inland it will turn immediately to snow to low levels but only for a short time. By mid morning after some early accumulations these counties should have mostly rain and a thaw of lying snow (this may freeze tomorrow night bringing tricky driving conditions for Saturday). Temperatures will start off below freezing but will gradually climb to 2 or 3c later in the day.

Co's Wexford, Wicklow, Kilkenny, Tipperary, Carlow, Laois, Offaly, Limerick, Clare


Snow will reach these counties during the early afternoon. Initial accumulations of 5 or 6cms. This initial band should be shortlived but heavier snow should occur for a time in the afternoon. This will turn more sleety through the evening and may turn to rain for a little while and clear early tomorrow night with a little back edge sleet or snow again. Temperatures reaching highs of 1 or 2c.

Co's Dublin, Meath, Louth, West Meath, Kildare and Cavan.

Snow reaching these counties sometime around mid afternoon. Moderate or heavy snow is expected for a while which will turn sleety later in the evening and may turn to rain for a short time tomorrow night. A brief thaw of any lying snow should occur but will freeze again tomorrow night. Again 5 or 6cms.


On higher elevations as usual more snow and accumulations. Eleswhere in the country apart from Southeast Ulster it should remain mostly if not completely dry tomorrow. It seems unlikely now that any of this will reach North Connaught and most of Ulster. Let's see what the 12z model runs make of it.

Just going to quote this again, so all the people asking ''will it snow here'' have an answer.
:cool:

Wild Bill

thomasj wrote: »

Very light rain shower at Clare hall.

What?! Clare Hall in Dublin?

force eleven

thetonynator wrote: »

Its only a downgrade for those further north, it was quite a positive forecast for me.

Perhaps, but there isn't really much for anyone. I don't see this event now causing much fuss at all, its been continually pushed away and downgraded in intensity since Monday.

GavinH

Temperature was down to -2 at 9pm, its now back up to -1.5 as some cloud starts to roll in.

WolfeIRE

mickger844posts

A fairly positive forecast for the south from Jean. Anything is possible at this stage. Would like to hear what MT has to say at this stage especially with it being so close to the event.

WolfeIRE

View the latest GFS data now rolling out. Select the precip options to view charts in timeline

cherryghost

Less than 12 hours and everything is still a flip of a coin.

NOWCAST ENGAGED

EDIT: 18Z is still not much different, front pushes a bit further north than last few models

thetonynator

force eleven wrote: »

Perhaps, but there isn't really much for anyone. I don't see this event now causing much fuss at all, its been continually pushed away and downgraded in intensity since Monday.

I think met eireann have had downgraded it, but in general the models have upgraded this event for the last few weeks, especially the GFS. Met eireann came out very early (possibly even irresponsibly) saying up to 10cm so early on, but 5-7cm is likely in much of the country now.