Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

ninebeanrows · 25-10-2013 8:50am

funny the disparity between the Runs particularly ECM and GFS

with the ECM low being extremely threatening for the UK

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 8:59am

Weathercheck wrote: »

funny the disparity between the Runs particularly ECM and GFS

with the ECM low being extremely threatening for the UK

ninebeanrows · 25-10-2013 9:02am

The ECMWF at 81 hours has the low centre at 964hPa with the low centre positioned just east of Anglesey.

Some severe winds would affext the southeast of Ireland with the systems associated rain bands lashing the east coast.

Most severe winds would be up the Bristol Channel and along the Cornish coast with sustained winds exceeding 50kt. The system moves rapidly eastwards just north of Hull 3 hours later with severe land gales over parts of southern UK, with inland sustained winds of >40kt which is quite exceptional.

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 9:04am

Met Eireann highlighting the potential risk for here, all depends on the track and development. And this was written before the 0Z ECM.

There is the potential for some very wet and windy weather on Bank-Holiday Monday.

A weather system looks like producing some very heavy falls of rain and there will be some very strong winds too. There is the potential for localised flooding in the south and east of the country. The positioning of this low will determine where the heaviest falls are. The rain will clear away to the east early in the afternoon and then showers will develop.

Rolex_ · 25-10-2013 10:25am

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann highlighting the potential risk for here, all depends on the track and development. And this was written before the 0Z ECM.

Sorry but what's the significance of the OZ ECM change? No meterological knowledge but crossed fingers re Dublin Marathon on Monday morning...

ninebeanrows · 25-10-2013 10:26am

Rolex_ wrote: »

Sorry but what's the significance of the OZ ECM change? No meterological knowledge but crossed fingers re Dublin Marathon on Monday morning...

Looks like being a washout with heavy rain likely to reach Dublin and the risk of a short period of intense winds but the rain part (70%) is a lot more likely than the wind part (30%).

Rolex_ · 25-10-2013 10:31am

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like being a washout with heavy rain likely to reach Dublin and the risk of a short period of intense winds but the rain part (70%) is a lot more likely than the wind part (30%).

Thanks. Wind is more of an issue for the marathon than rain. A few very heavy showers less of a problem than sustained heavy rain. Marathon starts at 9 and most people done by 1.30 or so. Will continue to watch your thread with interest!

hypersonic · 25-10-2013 10:42am

Rolex_ wrote: »

Thanks. Wind is more of an issue for the marathon than rain. A few very heavy showers less of a problem than sustained heavy rain. Marathon starts at 9 and most people done by 1.30 or so. Will continue to watch your thread with interest!

Is it clockwise or anticlockwise this year? If it's anticlockwise, the N11 into a Gael force northerly wind would be fun. :pac:

Rolex_ · 25-10-2013 10:45am

hypersonic wrote: »

Is it clockwise or anticlockwise this year? If it's anticlockwise, the N11 into a Gael force northerly wind would be fun. :pac:

Exactly. It's anticlockwise with miles 22-25 heading northwest into town from Stillorgan. If there were a gale force headwind there would be carnage (assuming it were even safe to let the race go ahead)

howlinwolf · 25-10-2013 11:02am

Then it's likely to rapidly intensify just west of the UK late on Sunday before tracking across England and Wales early on Monday.

"There is still a chance this storm may take a more southerly track and miss the UK, bringing impacts elsewhere in northern Europe, but people should be aware there is a risk of severe weather and significant disruption.

that's from the met office in England, seems to be less and less likely that it will track further north and impact us ....lets wait and see

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 11:25am

06Z GFS splits the energy into a double low which slows down the development but it still eventually ends up delivering strong winds to the south coast of England, but it's weaker compared to other models.

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 12:14pm

UK Met Office just tweeted this updated forecast track. The alternative track 1 is what we need to watch out for, and they give that a higher probably than a more southerly track.

tylercollins · 25-10-2013 12:21pm

Also this from Met Office site

leahyl · 25-10-2013 12:29pm

Looks like most of us will escape it so Maq? Anything is possible though I guess

Sierra Oscar · 25-10-2013 12:30pm

Looking like the Met are favoring a possible track shift to the north as opposed to a southern shift. The expansion of the alert areas to more northern areas seems to indicate that they are taking precautions over the possibility of a track shift to the north.

shell820810 · 25-10-2013 12:45pm

Oh dear, flying Belfast to Edinburgh on Monday morning for a mini break. Will be so disappointed if flights are cancelled. Just booked insurance to cover non refundable hotel costs in worst case scenario.

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 1:01pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Looking like the Met are favoring a possible track shift to the north as opposed to a southern shift. The expansion of the alert areas to more northern areas seems to indicate that they are taking precautions over the possibility of a track shift to the north.

Yes, their MOGREPS ensembles are probably showing more northerly tracks than southerly ones. Usually you'd expect a more northerly track to be a more intense depression too. They still think that a track just south of Ireland is still the most likely though.

tylercollins · 25-10-2013 1:02pm

40 ft storm surge expected along south west coast...

EDIT: more than likely 25 - 30 foot time it reaches the coast.

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 2:05pm

An update from Met Eireann.

Sunday will be a very windy, blustery day with strong to gale force southwest to west winds gusting 90 to 100 km/h. Gusts on exposed Atlantic coasts could be higher. Showers will become widespread too, many heavy and some possibly thundery. Highs on Sunday of 11 to 14 degrees. Winds will moderate quickly during Sunday evening.

A storm depression will approach our southern coasts on Sunday night. At this stage, it looks set to pass in over the southwest of England and Wales during the morning. But Ireland will get some windy and very wet weather as it goes.

Detail : A spell of windy and very wet weather will affect Munster and Leinster later Sunday night. The rain will be quite heavy and possibly thundery, with some spot flooding by dawn. Rain will push into remaining parts of the country also. Winds will increase strong and gusty, with the onshore winds strongest in eastern and southern coastal counties.

Bank-Holiday Monday :
Monday morning will be very wet over Leinster and east Munster, with further flooding in places. Winds will be strong and blustery and come from a mainly northwesterly direction by mid morning. Rain elsewhere too, but much lighter especially over north Connacht and west Ulster.
The rain will largely clear away to the east early in the afternoon, but it will stay windy with fresh to strong and gusty northwesterly winds. Sunny spells will develop and scattered showers also. A cool afternoon, with top temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees.

The winds on Atlantic facing coasts on Sunday are from a seperate low to our north, not to be confused with the rapidly developing low expected to come up from the southwest Atlantic Sunday night and heading over the UK early Monday morning.

tylercollins · 25-10-2013 2:48pm

https://twitter.com/IanMBrooks/status/393723102909067265

leahyl · 25-10-2013 3:07pm

tylercollins wrote: »

https://twitter.com/IanMBrooks/status/393723102909067265

Omg amazing pic :eek:

Merkin · 25-10-2013 4:18pm

Excuse my ignorance but what's a Knorr?

Also, how long is this storm supposed to last? I'm in SW of the UK and due to go to Ireland next week! :eek:

DOCARCH · 25-10-2013 4:28pm

Merkin wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance but what's a Knorr?

The name of the ship...I suspect.

maquiladora · 25-10-2013 4:34pm

Merkin wrote: »

Excuse my ignorance but what's a Knorr?

Also, how long is this storm supposed to last? I'm in SW of the UK and due to go to Ireland next week! :eek:

It'll be moving very quickly, it will all be over by Monday afternoon.

leinad · 25-10-2013 4:36pm

http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane :eek:

Hooter23 · 25-10-2013 4:50pm

All the warnings/hype! Its just because its going to affect the south of england I know theres more people living there but it was due to hit the north-west you wouldnt hear much about it its the same when they get snow.

Sierra Oscar · 25-10-2013 4:53pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

All the warnings/hype! Its just because its going to affect the south of england I know theres more people living there but it was due to hit the north-west you wouldnt hear much about it its the same when they get snow.

Difference being that the South of England certainly would not be used to the kind of weather that might be experienced in the North-West, same goes for the terrain.

Usual tabloid papers are going OTT as is expected, but I think the Met Office are right to be cautious with this system. Seems to have the potential to be a nasty storm.

Lumi · 25-10-2013 4:53pm

Mod Note

Guys, if you're going to post a link to some info/news on another site etc can I suggest that you say a few words about it. Posting a link on its own really doesn't add a lot to the discussion
Thanks

Sierra Oscar · 25-10-2013 4:56pm

Latest GFS run seems to show the system as being more intensive as compared to the last run, also seems to be placing the system slightly further north?

wonder88 · 25-10-2013 5:06pm

The wind is starting to pick for last few hours here in the west, but sea still relatively calm in Galway bay (unlikely to last long that way if forecast true)

Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

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