Possible Storm / Strong winds 26th to 28th October 2013 ?

06Z GFS splits the energy into a double low which slows down the development but it still eventually ends up delivering strong winds to the south coast of England, but it's weaker compared to other models.

Also this from Met Office site

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Looking like the Met are favoring a possible track shift to the north as opposed to a southern shift. The expansion of the alert areas to more northern areas seems to indicate that they are taking precautions over the possibility of a track shift to the north.

Yes, their MOGREPS ensembles are probably showing more northerly tracks than southerly ones. Usually you'd expect a more northerly track to be a more intense depression too. They still think that a track just south of Ireland is still the most likely though.

An update from Met Eireann.

Sunday will be a very windy, blustery day with strong to gale force southwest to west winds gusting 90 to 100 km/h. Gusts on exposed Atlantic coasts could be higher. Showers will become widespread too, many heavy and some possibly thundery. Highs on Sunday of 11 to 14 degrees. Winds will moderate quickly during Sunday evening.

A storm depression will approach our southern coasts on Sunday night. At this stage, it looks set to pass in over the southwest of England and Wales during the morning. But Ireland will get some windy and very wet weather as it goes.

Detail : A spell of windy and very wet weather will affect Munster and Leinster later Sunday night. The rain will be quite heavy and possibly thundery, with some spot flooding by dawn. Rain will push into remaining parts of the country also. Winds will increase strong and gusty, with the onshore winds strongest in eastern and southern coastal counties.

Bank-Holiday Monday :
Monday morning will be very wet over Leinster and east Munster, with further flooding in places. Winds will be strong and blustery and come from a mainly northwesterly direction by mid morning. Rain elsewhere too, but much lighter especially over north Connacht and west Ulster.
The rain will largely clear away to the east early in the afternoon, but it will stay windy with fresh to strong and gusty northwesterly winds. Sunny spells will develop and scattered showers also. A cool afternoon, with top temperatures of 9 to 12 degrees.

The winds on Atlantic facing coasts on Sunday are from a seperate low to our north, not to be confused with the rapidly developing low expected to come up from the southwest Atlantic Sunday night and heading over the UK early Monday morning.

tylercollins wrote: »

https://twitter.com/IanMBrooks/status/393723102909067265

Omg amazing pic :eek:

http://news.sky.com/story/1159525/weather-storm-alerts-as-uk-set-for-hurricane :eek:

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Latest GFS run seems to show the system as being more intensive as compared to the last run, also seems to be placing the system slightly further north?

Yes, but GFS has been quite poor with this last day or two and is playing catch up at the moment. The UKM and ECM have had this already tracking that far north or further north. Will be interesting to see if they continue further north again this evening.

Looks severe from England on tonight's ECM

The transfer of energy from primary to secondary lows will perhaps reduce the impact of the primary just a little as this sort of pattern often underperforms on primary gusts. That being said, max gusts will probably be into the mid-50s (knots) in well-exposed areas on Sunday. Those will not be too extreme for the regions concerned.

The secondary is almost locked into a track across southern England now with the degree of model consensus unlikely to shift very far, but we should retain perhaps a 10% risk of this coming further north into southeast Ireland. Rain could be heavy for a time but as the system is very fast-moving I think the concerns may be greater than the results, we'll see.

This storm (unless there is a huge last-minute model bust) is only a big concern for any Irish residents who have travel plans that involve southern England, the Channel or northern France (to Denmark eventually) on Monday. There will probably be some air and sea travel disruptions and I would not want to be on the roads in south central or southeast England during the day. Gusts to 75 knots or 145 km/hr are quite possible in exposed areas of southeast England and northern France, as well as the Channel Islands, during about a six-hour period before and during the passage of this low. I don't expect Irish Sea ferries to be disrupted by actual winds, although conceivably by forecasts across the southern routes. This storm will have a very sharp gradient of observed wind gusts that could run from 60-75 knots on the active side to 30-45 knots on the northern flank and those would likely come well after the low centre has passed by (as well as before it due to the primary).

Just using a GFS Ensemble member to give an idea of what i think the eventual outcome could be.

Closer to the time i expect system to be deeper earlier than expected and thus track further north.

Ok guys. I'm living bang in the South of England, in a rural location, surrounded by oak trees. Should I be concerned about this? Trying to ignore the hype but have just stocked up on food.
Sunday will be securing everything. We've had a lot of rain and the house is within striking distance of a couple of trees.....what do you think?

Just a reminder,
http://www.flightradar24.com/53.54,-5.94/8
to watch the planes,


http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw
To listen to the live ATC feed.

Most models downgrade intensity of storm this morning and push system slightly further south.

Nothing major on this mornings output.

Sigh of relief at the MetOffice.

- of course this is still a significant weather event but nothing too exceptional

Maybe not the right thread for this, but Estofex have issued a level 1 for Ireland, for today.

... British Isles and surroundings ...

The frontal system of the next pronounced low-pressure system crosses the British Isles. A strongly sheared and helical flow is forecast to develop in a narrow belt ahead of the cold front due to a concentrated Southwesterly low-level jet (25-30 m/s at 850 hPa). With marginally unstable profiles and strong forcing, a shallow convective line is expected to cross Ireland around noon and most of the UK by midnight. Severe wind gusts are possible, and a few tornadoes are not ruled out in the case that more discrete convection can crystallize along segments of the line.
After a few hours of postfrontal subsidence, a new round of deeper and more vigorous convection will move onshore overnight with the next vorticity lobes. Deep-layer shear will then decrease due to a more equalized flow through the depth of the troposphere, but with a few hundred J/kg of CAPE over the relatively warm sea and a further tightening gradient at low levels, even ill-organized storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts. Limited area models agree on the development of a comma over the Celtic Sea overnight, though the solutions are highly diverging with respect to its timing, intensity and path. Hence it was decided to stay with a high-end level 1, though there is a possibility of widespread severe wind gusts in Ireland, Wales and Cornwall very late in the forecast period, when the 850 hPa flow starts to exceed 30 m/s!

25-30 m/s is 90-110 km/h by the way.

We'll see if it actually happens, but worth pointing out.

Back on topic...

There is no sign on the models this morning of Monday morning's low tracking further north over Ireland, it's still on course to track over Wales/England though we could get some heavy rain from it for a while.

There is some disagreement on the models of how strong it will over the UK, but that's to be expected since it's on the far side of the Atlantic and won't be getting it's act together until the final 12-24 hours.

UKMO:<980mb
NAE: <975mb
GFS: 969mb
ECM: 966mb
GEM: 962mb