Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

patneve2 · 13-03-2013 8:37pm

ECM still good for cold

Weathering · 13-03-2013 8:39pm

patneve2 wrote: »

ECM still good for cold

I can't check on phone in pub. Better or worse than earlier or pretty much the same?

DOCARCH · 13-03-2013 8:45pm

Weathering wrote: »

I can't check on phone in pub. Better or worse than earlier or pretty much the same?

Pretty much cold to the end of the run. -4c to -8c upppers pretty much all the way.

Red Pepper · 13-03-2013 9:09pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Pretty much cold to the end of the run. -4c to -8c upppers pretty much all the way.

And whats the likelihood of snow next week especially in west?
Will the mountain peaks (600m+) stay white until 23rd March?

John.Icy · 13-03-2013 9:11pm

Chances of snow will really depend on wind source. Slight changes in wind direction could be the difference between -5 uppers or tapping into a pool of -10.

Interesting few days coming up, we want a NAVGEM solution from last night to have the best chance if snow. Winds positioned just right and dragged in -10 uppers.

DOCARCH · 13-03-2013 9:27pm

I see this in ME forecast/outlook:

The risk of some significant falls of sleet or snow to Ulster and north Leinster also increases on Monday.

Snowc · 13-03-2013 9:43pm

If this comes to fruition spare a thought for mike65.

downwiththatsor · 13-03-2013 10:02pm

Red Pepper wrote: »

Will the mountain peaks (600m+) stay white until 23rd March?

I'd say likely if this evenings latest ecmwf t850's of -8 materialise at the end of the run at +240hrs

JanuarySnowstor · 13-03-2013 10:34pm

One trend that is noticeable with the gfs is that the cold uppers keep getting delayed. Was originally meant to start Friday of this week now it's Tuesday of next.
In general it looks too marginal for most of us, falling sleet and hill snow yes, anything lying or disruptive I doubt.
Still something to keep us entertained whilst we await Spring!

derekon · 13-03-2013 10:48pm

Not sure if anyone has any views on the 12z ECM issued around 6pm tonight. Could we still be looking at a very late cold spell?

D

Wicklow Weather · 13-03-2013 11:10pm

Some snow showers off the coast of Wicklow and Wexford, some skirting coastal fringes!

M.T. Cranium · 13-03-2013 11:52pm

Oh great, a whole week of marginal snow situations. No wait that's not right, two whole weeks of marginal snow situations.

*moves from window to ledge*

Rougies · 14-03-2013 12:11am

I would not like to be a forecaster's position for the next couple of weeks at all. "Messy" doesn't really cut it as a forecast, but that's probably the best way to describe what's showing up on the models at the moment.

lucernarian · 14-03-2013 12:12am

I've a feeling next week's weather is going to be a great talking point here, in a similar vein to last week's. I have to say I found some of last week's debates on the event to be very entertaining!! Hopefully we all learned something from it.

And there's no harm to have disagreements here so long as we all play by the rules and not make it personal. Or have another Gerry Murphy won't say snow discussion! I think any regular contributor here is well able to take criticism of a forecast as well as give it, if it's explained well and backed up.

/2 cent

Some very tasty charts from ECM in fantasy island. The Canadian model is not so hot (or dare I say cold?). Given that the finer details are so crucial, I suspect we'll be at the mercy of the models until the weekend. GFS is especially confusing to my eye.

M.T. Cranium · 14-03-2013 2:44am

I've found in my somewhat limited experience that stacked lows (upper and surface lows almost vertical) in spring tend to produce heavy hail showers no matter what the thickness profile. The most likely location is usually 100-150 miles east to south of the low. There, now that I've said that I can take two weeks off. See y'all in April.

Gonzo · 14-03-2013 3:44am

For once I really dont want this cold spell because it's now mid-March and we would have cried out for this all winter and it would have produced some amazing cold snowy days. The thoughts of 'what could have been' keep springing to mind

Having said that I have seen nearly a foot of snow here before in mid-April so anythings possible, that foot of snow melted before the day was over:) If we really do have to go under another 2 weeks of a bitter airflow, I hope this really is the end of it with a much warmer April in the offering.

Rebelbrowser · 14-03-2013 10:13am

I've never fully understood this cold spell prognosis as uppers seem to be -2 or -4 most of the time. This mornings runs look milder (relatively) to me too. I note however MT and Met Eireann (7.55am broadcast) this morning are still talking of a cold spell and some snow risk. So what am I missing?

dopolahpec · 14-03-2013 10:43am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I've never fully understood this cold spell prognosis as uppers seem to be -2 or -4 most of the time. This mornings runs look milder (relatively) to me too. I note however MT and Met Eireann (7.55am broadcast) this morning are still talking of a cold spell and some snow risk. So what am I missing?

The ECM is showing lower uppers later next week. It's a long way off though.

Winter, I wish I could quit you

Wicklow Weather · 14-03-2013 10:53am

A frustrating output unfolding for next week. Colder solution still looking somewhat fractured. Cool days with cold nights. just sayin! Snow on high ground, sleet at mid elevation, ****e at lower elevations. Looks like the remainder of March is a cool solution.

DOCARCH · 14-03-2013 11:08am

dopolahpec wrote: »

Winter, I wish I could quit you

Would take a cold and wintry March (and April) in exchange for a hot and dry summer any year.

Forecasters nightmare next week. Fully expect lots of mentions of 'hill snow'. :rolleyes::)

Wicklow Weather · 14-03-2013 11:36am

Just had a go at Piers of Exacta. He forecast March cold 130 days ago. I told him he should let us know such info during Jan or Feb even if his casts are pay for casts. Humble pie when I looked down at his January and Feb casts for March. He nailed it. Oooops. Not a massive fan but he seems to have got his March cast spot on.

Speak Now · 14-03-2013 12:16pm

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

Just had a go at Piers of Exacta. He forecast March cold 130 days ago. I told him he should let us know such info during Jan or Feb even if his casts are pay for casts. Humble pie when I looked down at his January and Feb casts for March. He nailed it. Oooops. Not a massive fan but he seems to have got his March cast spot on.

Stopped clock and all that............

eastmayo · 14-03-2013 7:22pm

Tiss gone quite in here....

dopolahpec · 14-03-2013 7:29pm

Dunno why, ECM 120 hrs is pure snow bunny stuff

Nabber · 14-03-2013 11:01pm

Winter mode is over, now most people are pissed seeing these charts. If they had of come 30 days earlier we'd be dancing. But now it will be an inconvenience for most and annoying for the rest.

mike65 · 14-03-2013 11:03pm

the cold reload doesn't look like happening.

Speak Now · 14-03-2013 11:11pm

mike65 wrote: »

the cold reload doesn't look like happening.

Tempting fate again Mike

Step back from the models and spring will be sprung!

patneve2 · 14-03-2013 11:16pm

Looks unseasonably cold for at least part of next week, especially at night. Still think that the Wicklow mountains might see a lot of snow during the early hours of Sunday morning

pauldry · 15-03-2013 12:46am

A lot of sleety rain about and hail which is interesting to look at bouncing. Its been the coldest March for quite a while so far. After the 20th though I would expect a lot of milder air to spill in for the rest of the month and if we get much sun it could even get warm before Easter

Darwin · 15-03-2013 8:19am

On the mobile version of met.ie tomorrow's forecast shows a risk of "jail (sic) and thunder" Must be a first for this type of weather in Ireland

kenmc · 15-03-2013 9:54am

Nabber wrote: »

Winter mode is over, now most people are pissed seeing these charts. If they had of come 30 days earlier we'd be dancing. But now it will be an inconvenience for most and annoying for the rest.

Agreed, if it's not going to stick then it's pointless even falling really, it just teases. Much and all as I love snow, I'm fed up with these half-non events now at this stage and just want a stonking summer to make up for the sh1te winter we had

Elmer Blooker · 15-03-2013 11:10am

kenmc wrote: »

Agreed, if it's not going to stick then it's pointless even falling really, it just teases. Much and all as I love snow, I'm fed up with these half-non events now at this stage and just want a stonking summer to make up for the sh1te winter we had

It doesn't stick in Jan and Feb either.
Thats some serious cold over Scandinavia, unusual for the second half of March, the models may not have a grasp yet on what is unusually powerful northern blocking - all we need is the low pressure which will be close to Ireland to be a couple of hundred miles further south (not out of the question)
I'll continue to chart watch and give winter another go up to the change of the clocks at least.

ECM0-144.GIF?15-12

arctictree · 15-03-2013 12:02pm

I'm surprised there is no mention of the possible snow event tonight. ECM and GFS are forcasting low temps in the Dublin area for around dawn with a front approaching from the south.

Larbre34 · 15-03-2013 12:25pm

arctictree wrote: »

I'm surprised there is no mention of the possible snow event tonight. ECM and GFS are forcasting low temps in the Dublin area for around dawn with a front approaching from the south.

Not nearly cold enough at upper levels. Hail from the transition,maybe a bit of hill schleet, for Dublin area at any rate. Sets the tone for a grotty enough weekend, hail and squally cold rain showers, decent windchill. Met É have it well covered.

Wouldnt want to be in a samba costume in it....

dopolahpec · 15-03-2013 12:32pm

Fat lady might be singing soon. Looks mild at end of GFS.

Weathering · 15-03-2013 1:12pm

Heavy wintry shower atm(donegal) giant snowflakes mixed in

Wicklow Weather · 15-03-2013 1:19pm

Meteogram shows thickness and temperature rising later next week from 21st.

lolie · 15-03-2013 1:28pm

Just had big hail shower here that turned to sleet before it cleared.

mountainy man · 15-03-2013 2:04pm

Had snow shower at noon, back to beautiful sun again.

downwiththatsor · 15-03-2013 3:10pm

Kerry County Council @countykerry

There is a risk of significant snowfall later tonight and on Saturday morning especially over high ground.

2 minutes ago

I think i need to move to higher ground

MrFrisp · 15-03-2013 3:49pm

RTE weather/M.E. has a chance of snow showers for tomorrow..

Tomorrow
Tomorrow, Saturday, will be a cold day, with sunny spells and showers of rain or hail. The showers will be well-scattered in most areas, but in the south, showers will be heavy and prolonged and they might turn to sleet or snow. Maximum temperatures 5 to 8 Celsius, in a moderate mainly northeast wind.

http://www.rte.ie/weather/
.

Rebelbrowser · 15-03-2013 3:56pm

I'd have thought talk of snow tonight was mad but just looked at the NAE and it shows thickness at 522, dew points ranging to 2 to -3 but uppers only ranging -3 to -5. Most importantly however it shows plenty pink over the country from 6 to 9pm.... See http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=6&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Still v sceptical but over high ground looks to me as though snow is v highly probable this evening.... As for low down, you can't fully rule it out.

Elmer Blooker · 15-03-2013 4:02pm

dopolahpec wrote: »

Fat lady might be singing soon. Looks mild at end of GFS.

I'd be very surprised if the GFS didn't have it turning mild in FI. The UKMO further outlook says it all - "probably turning milder next weekend....... slow to reach northern areas with a continuing risk of snow" - so a lot of uncertainty at the moment.
Belmullet and Malin only 4c now, that must be 5 to 6 degrees below normal for the time of year? I presume afternoon temps should be hitting 10 or thereabouts?

Weathering · 15-03-2013 4:05pm

BbcNIweather twitter mentioned a biting Eastery next Tuesday with Snow showers and a mix of rail/hail/sleet and possible snow showers tomorrow

Nabber · 15-03-2013 4:37pm

In fairness it has to turn mild some day, the sun presence is very noticeable now.

Elmer Blooker · 15-03-2013 5:01pm

down to 2c in Belmullet now.

Larbre34 · 15-03-2013 5:06pm

Trust the mleeeedin Shannon radar to be off the air, probably be gone for the weekend

15-03-2013 5:29pm

had thunder-hail here few mins ago

(maybe that thunder was neighbours, they are moving stuff

wildefalcon · 15-03-2013 5:43pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Trust the mleeeedin Shannon radar to be off the air, probably be gone for the weekend

It's back. For now.

Gonzo · 15-03-2013 5:55pm

shower of sleet about 30 minutes ago. All these cold spells are too little too late. I am prepared to wait now till next November before getting excited again, in the meanwhile I am dying for a half decent summer that does not consist of low to mid teen temps on a weekly basis with lashings of rain. Im more sick of bad summers than boring winters.

Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

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