Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

Sensual Cucumber

I cant see any prolonged severe cold spell next week on any of the models apart from the ECM. This has happened so many times this winter. Expect the ECM to fall back in line with the GFS. I hope im wrong Id love a bit of snow after this winters so close yet so far scenario

cherryghost

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

whitebriar

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One factor for sure though I think a major contributor was that there was very little troughing at both the lower and upper atmosphere which coincided with the coldest tongue of 850s. This was well modelled days in advance and alluded to on here more than once.

Well that's true enough,but the actual conditions created plenty showers,it's just they didn't dilly dally.
If they had,the waterford story where they did would have been more widespread.
Also the extent of the showers that actually happened was most definitely not well modeled days in advance.Their extent in my opinion was flagged reasonably days in advance though by some here via intuition.

So lesson learned,if you want snowmageddon,try not to have too high a driving wind.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

cherryghost wrote: »

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

Natural selection will pick off those that try :pac:

kenmc

cherryghost wrote: »

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

Sure thats why god invented TV. And the Mute button to avoid the inane prattle of the "commentators".

mike65

The equinox cannot arrive quickly enough! Soon Eurasia will have more daylight than dark and a sun at a higher angle and then its can be as easterly as it likes (cue swing to the west until December)

leahyl

Larbre34 wrote: »

all those travelling to London on 22nd March, step forward. NOT SO FAST YOU!

In all seriousness I would predict the chance of daytime transport disruption in Dublin as slight and even less in London, UK Met are posting potential snow for N and E England but milder in the SE

I'm flying from Cork Perhaps the snow shield will break down that day! :pac:

Larbre34

mike65 wrote: »

The equinox cannot arrive quickly enough! Soon Eurasia will have more daylight then dark and a sun at a higher angle and then its can be as easterly as it likes (cue swing to the west until December)

Not from round here are you?

You're in a place where people would rather see the Earth reverse its polarity and establish a prevailing wind from the East, modified continental hot summers and cold winters, real seasonality, real weather........

Larbre34

leahyl wrote: »

I'm flying from Cork Perhaps the snow shield will break down that day! :pac:

It got a bit dented the other day alright! Youre in even better shape if going from Cork, winds from the NNE wont cause you problems at origin or destination.....probably!

Rebelbrowser

leahyl wrote: »

Oh God I'm going to London on the 22nd.....this is the first time ever that I'm hoping it doesn't snow :eek:

I was like that on Monday. I was flying Gatwick to Cork at 1pm and I couldn't be delayed for various reasons. I ended up in London on Sunday night checking boards.ie just to make sure the rain over Cork didn't turn to snow. Then on Monday I was hoping it wouldn't snow before my flight in either London or Cork. I felt dirty!

As it happens there were a few cm on the ground at Gatwick but I got away nonetheless (though they spent a good half hour sprating anti freeze on the wings). When we were approaching Cork the pilot announced there was "heavy" snow in Cork. I thought briefly it would work out perfectly with the snow ariving in time for me and my little fella to enjoy on landing. Alas we just got dandruff falling for the rest of the day. As it happens we had a brief snowball fight in Gatwick so how bad....

Redsunset

There is a mild weather thread if that is your preference. Let folk talk about what may evolve in this thread. No need for it in here.

Also I have downgraded thread title as to just chat for now as it's still way off for any levels. Also the cold may be more Very than Severe and these can be amended if needed.

Red Pepper

cherryghost wrote: »

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

St Paddy's parades are generally tedious. I think I would be more inclined to go if it was snowing and icy and watching other tits freezing

Elmer Blooker

mike65 wrote: »

The equinox cannot arrive quickly enough! Soon Eurasia will have more daylight than dark and a sun at a higher angle and then its can be as easterly as it likes (cue swing to the west until December)

Thats very true, continental climates have a very short spring as land masses warm up very quickly when the nights become shorter than the day, compare that with our climate when spring can last from January 1st until July 31st and autumn from August 1st until December 31st. (the sad thing is I am only half joking)
I presume the Arctic is colder in March than in January so we really need a very potent blast from the north.

ninebeanrows

Redsunset wrote: »

There is a mild weather thread if that is your preference. Let folk talk about what may evolve in this thread. No need for it in here.

Also I have downgraded thread title as to just chat for now as it's still way off for any levels. Also the cold may be more Very than Severe and these can be amended if needed.

This is what happens when you give up modship!

Perhaps Redsunset you should set up a Model Output Discussion thread rather than downgrading a thread tag. For which i think you were incorrect to do.

You also closed the previous cold weather thread and failed to open anything up for discussion.

ninebeanrows

UKM very much more inline with the ECM solution of the low position than the anomolous GFS.

UKM 144



GFS 144

Redsunset

Never stopped anyone opening a thread hence you started this. And no I don't think I was incorrect at this range. End of. Talk about the prospects now please.

Davaeo09

Crazy carry on :rolleyes:


When do people think these charts will be more dependable? Tomorrow night? Friday?

Deank

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Crazy carry on :rolleyes:


When do people think these charts will be more dependable? Tomorrow night? Friday?

With these charts I'd wait until Friday before ramping too much, tomorrow should tell us a great deal but come Friday it should be nailed on.

patneve2

GFS predicting quite a messy evolution on the 12z. UKMO and ECM look good though.

Redsunset

Any more off topic posts will be met with a ban.

patneve2

ECM still good for cold

Weathering

patneve2 wrote: »

ECM still good for cold

I can't check on phone in pub. Better or worse than earlier or pretty much the same?

DOCARCH

Weathering wrote: »

I can't check on phone in pub. Better or worse than earlier or pretty much the same?

Pretty much cold to the end of the run. -4c to -8c upppers pretty much all the way.

Red Pepper

DOCARCH wrote: »

Pretty much cold to the end of the run. -4c to -8c upppers pretty much all the way.

And whats the likelihood of snow next week especially in west?
Will the mountain peaks (600m+) stay white until 23rd March?

John.Icy

Chances of snow will really depend on wind source. Slight changes in wind direction could be the difference between -5 uppers or tapping into a pool of -10.

Interesting few days coming up, we want a NAVGEM solution from last night to have the best chance if snow. Winds positioned just right and dragged in -10 uppers.

DOCARCH

I see this in ME forecast/outlook:

The risk of some significant falls of sleet or snow to Ulster and north Leinster also increases on Monday.

Snowc

If this comes to fruition spare a thought for mike65.

downwiththatsor

Red Pepper wrote: »

Will the mountain peaks (600m+) stay white until 23rd March?

I'd say likely if this evenings latest ecmwf t850's of -8 materialise at the end of the run at +240hrs

JanuarySnowstor

One trend that is noticeable with the gfs is that the cold uppers keep getting delayed. Was originally meant to start Friday of this week now it's Tuesday of next.
In general it looks too marginal for most of us, falling sleet and hill snow yes, anything lying or disruptive I doubt.
Still something to keep us entertained whilst we await Spring!

derekon

Not sure if anyone has any views on the 12z ECM issued around 6pm tonight. Could we still be looking at a very late cold spell?

D