Cold week ahead, change is on the way ............

ninebeanrows

Well a truly exceptional model output this morning particularly the ECM which would plunge Ireland into an extended freeze from this Sunday.

As it is so late in the season temperatures by day would rise to 3-5c but drop sharply in any wintry showers and by night drop well below freezing.

Wintry precipitation is likely as early as Sunday in parts as a low pressure system lies over Ireland giving periods of prolonged precip in places and also feeding in showers to coastal parts.

A surge of even colder air is then expected to advance from the northeast later Monday 18th March bringing wintry showers to eastern coasts and spreading inland.

From the period Tuesday 19th March to Saturday 23rd Ireland is expected to be in a deeply unstable arctic flow. Winds will vary but predominately be from the east and north. Some low pressure features may move south across the country at times giving prolonged periods of sleet or snow. Eastern and northern areas will be at risk of wintry showers/heavy snow showers throughout the period.

It is mid-March so snow-cover will likely retreat during daytime in any sunshine but there is still a risk of significant snowfall during the week with disruption likely to occur if the current model output materialises.

High ground will be particularly exposed with significant appreciations of snow likely in ground above 200m.

A few charts to wet the appetite.
This has a November 2010 feel to it.

Rougies

Oh god... here we go again... Good luck everyone!

dopolahpec

Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.

helimachoptor

dopolahpec wrote: »

Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.

Nope!

Larbre34

dopolahpec wrote: »

Are people allowed to express the view that this isn't welcome? I think it's a horrific prospect myself.

Not on this thread.

Met É have jumped right on board with this, which in itself makes me wary. They went model jumping early in the season and both the forecasts and outcomes were a bust. Im sticking with my FI at +72, if this is still progged on saturday itll raise my eyebrows. Too much prospect of modification for now.

dopolahpec

Larbre34 wrote: »

Not on this thread.

Met É have jumped right on board with this, which in itself makes me wary. They went model jumping early in the season and both the forecasts and outcomes were a bust. Im sticking with my FI at +72, if this is still progged on saturday itll raise my eyebrows. Too much prospect of modification for now.

I think it will happen, objectively the evolution looks fairly robust to my eyes, there seems more margin for error than with the easterlies earlier in the year (as was the case with this week's effort). I will defer from posting any more unpopular views so but I've firmly tipped into 'I want my spring god dammit camp'. I think for those with the wheels and the motivation there will be spectacular scenes if you make a trip to higher ground. On lower ground I can see a hail/wet snow mix tearing the sad looking blossom off the hawthorne trees. Cavan, Wicklow the usual suspects for deep snow.

On a side note, wasn't the CFS model consistently progging a historically cold March for many months? Very similar synoptics to what we are now seeing in the near-frame model output? Interesting for sure.

Speak Now

Spring really getting pushed back this March! Clocks will be going forward in a couple of weeks :eek:

Birdnuts

Its unfortunate that things are kicking off so late in the year. Definatly had the potential to deleiver something akin to 2010 if it had only been a few weeks ago. As WC mentioned the sun is now a big player at this time of year. Monday showed that even with perfect air temps and dewpoints, snow struggles to settle with a March sun that rapidly heats up any dark surfaces like roads,roofs, bare soil etc. to well above freezing. For a decent snow cover at this time of year in lower lying areas, you need heavy prolonged snowfall(not just showers) and constant cloud cover to minimize melting. Mind you the ingredients are there for such an event in this set-up. Such events are however rare in this country away from altitude. I've no doubt though that hilly/mountainous areas are in for a good blastering as I've seen similiar conditions well into April in the Wicklows.

DOCARCH

Very exciting!

The only consolation I can offer to those in despair is that over the last couple of years, Springs have generally been mild with fine weather....then look what happend to the summers!

Spring 2006 (March and April particularly) was cold.... then we had what might be considered a pretty good summer (recorded 31c here in July 2006).

munsterlegend

Its good to see Met Eireann on board and it is coming into the reasonably reliable time frame. Met Eireann have the possibility of sleet and snow for Friday so not too far away at all!

DOCARCH

Birdnuts wrote: »

Monday showed that even with perfect air temps and dewpoints, snow struggles to settle with a March sun that rapidly heats up any dark surfaces like roads,roofs, bare soil etc. .

Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.

dave1982

Not again I've just got used to the fact I will have no snow this year and now this happens:rolleyes:

zenno

This seems very unusual for nearly mid march. Where is the jet-stream in all this that pushes in our usually wet and mild weather ? it must be way down south or something instead of pushing across us as usual at this time.

pad199207

Friends in Spain cant even take the horses out of the stables because of the relentless rains down there. She reported the other day that the soils and plants were floating out of the flower pots!

whitebriar

DOCARCH wrote: »

Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.

I believe it was the wind that was the primary limitation.
Radar loops proved this in that showers moved quickly,so dumped their load over a wide area.
There were enough of them and they were always going to make landfall but less wind and they would have lingered and merged leading to significant cover instead of the sunshine melt shower sunshine melt shower combo we got.

Imho any 'we told you so' chest beating about being right all along by those expecting little is wrong.
Those people ended up being more right because of the wind than the rest of us but for all the bleating,they were wrong too.

The day we stop learning is ...

Elmer Blooker

DOCARCH wrote: »

Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.

I agree with the evaporation theory, I had a snow shower around 6pm which gave a dusting, the sun was gone and the temp was 0c yet it disappeared fairly quickly. The dry valleys in Antarctica (the weirdest places on the planet!) are snow free because extremely dry katabatic winds blow off the plateau.
(Don't worry I'm not comparing our climate to Antarctica's )

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I agree with the evaporation theory, I had a snow shower around 6pm which gave a dusting, the sun was gone and the temp was 0c yet it disappeared fairly quickly. The dry valleys in Antarctica (the weirdest places on the planet!) are snow free because extremely dry katabatic winds blow off the plateau.
(Don't worry I'm not comparing our climate to Antarctica's )

*cough* *veiled ramp* :pac:

arctictree

06z GFS going for a complete snowfest in the Wicklow mountains on Saturday night.

Akrasia

Feck It, we ran out of heating oil last week and were hoping we could get away with just a fire for a few days during this cold snap, but if it's gonna last another week I'll have to raid the piggy bank

SEPT 23 1989

Will it be more of this?:D

pad199207

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Will it be more of this?:D

That should say at the bottom " Vanishes away in 1 gust! "

Wicklow Weather

If we are basing this on model output we can see a colder solution from next week. However its far from model agreement looking at the timimg. Yesterday I posted my weather watch for 17th through to 20th for the cold event to take hold but I pointed out on my page that there was varying degree of temp range depending on which model runs you looked at giving the event coupled with wintry outcome a 30% confidence. What I am seeing this morning is an even fractured solution as the cold solutions seems to be getting pushed out from 18th to 20th in comparison to runs yesterday and Monday. Looking at the spread of output over Ireland its to play for in terms of wintry weather but if the evolution keeps pushing back any further on its timing this could slowly fall apart as we have seen all winter, great charts then dates and timimg moving out lead to disappointment. Wishing this was back in January!

dopolahpec

GFS and ECM are very different. The 06z GFS which is now rolling out has changed dramatically from pervious GFS runs and is now showing westerly turning northwesterly northerly finally north easterly as the low develops and rotates. This has much more modified air temps than the ECM at first, with the coldest upper air along the western seaboard at around 114 hours (Monday morning) then moving across the country. This mornings ECM looks snowy, the GFS looks waaay more marginal, but maybe someone with a better eye for this stuff can correct me.

Weathering

Will be interesting to see how this pans out. If Jersey of all places can get a blizzard this week then there is "sNOw" reason we can't get a good dumping next week

patneve2

whitebriar wrote: »

I believe it was the wind that was the primary limitation.
Radar loops proved this in that showers moved quickly,so dumped their load over a wide area.
There were enough of them and they were always going to make landfall but less wind and they would have lingered and merged leading to significant cover instead of the sunshine melt shower sunshine melt shower combo we got.

Imho any 'we told you so' chest beating about being right all along by those expecting little is wrong.
Those people ended up being more right because of the wind than the rest of us but for all the bleating,they were wrong too.

The day we stop learning is ...

agree, if the wind had been half of what it was there would have been less of that squally fragmented mess. There were a few showers here after lunch time that were actually quite hefty with poor visibility but the wind just blew them right over. I think perfect winds for the E coast are slack, so you can get a slight feed of light air from the land (but ppn still comes from the sea). Up to 30/40 km/hr sustained winds winds from the sea are also good but more than that and it gets too messy. Air pressure strangely enough isn't really much of an issue, have seen showers forming at over 1020 hpa

mike65

Prolonged Severe Cold Spell Likely Next Week
Well a truly exceptional model output this morning particularly the ECM which would plunge Ireland into an extended freeze from this Sunday.

As it is so late in the season temperatures by day would rise to 3-5c

Hardly severe, just a fupping annoyence

Oneiric 3

patneve2 wrote: »

agree, if the wind had been half of what it was there would have been less of that squally fragmented mess.

One factor for sure though I think a major contributor was that there was very little troughing at both the lower and upper atmosphere which coincided with the coldest tongue of 850s. This was well modelled days in advance and alluded to on here more than once.

Cantona's Collars

Akrasia wrote: »

Feck It, we ran out of heating oil last week and were hoping we could get away with just a fire for a few days during this cold snap, but if it's gonna last another week I'll have to raid the piggy bank

Dig out the 5 gallon drums;)

Was met.ie hacked? Somebody from there told the Ray Darcy show that we are to have a heatwave for Paddy's Day,he laughed at it too.

compsys

DOCARCH wrote: »

Snow struggled to settle more so to do with the intensity of the ppn/showers. None of the showers here were really heavy enough or sustained to give a decent covering (well here anyway), possibly/probably to do with pressure being too high. Air pressue on Monday was around 1016mb. Needs to be around 1000mb for beefy showers.

Other problem was that the wind was very strong and the air very dry so this has the effect of evaporating any lying snow - i.e. not melting it but literally evaportaing it.

Informative post. Thanks. The bickering on here can be annoying sometimes but there's a wealth of information among many members too.

leahyl

Oh God I'm going to London on the 22nd.....this is the first time ever that I'm hoping it doesn't snow :eek:

Larbre34

leahyl wrote: »

Oh God I'm going to London on the 22nd.....this is the first time ever that I'm hoping it doesn't snow :eek:

all those travelling to London on 22nd March, step forward. NOT SO FAST YOU!

In all seriousness I would predict the chance of daytime transport disruption in Dublin as slight and even less in London, UK Met are posting potential snow for N and E England but milder in the SE

Sensual Cucumber

I cant see any prolonged severe cold spell next week on any of the models apart from the ECM. This has happened so many times this winter. Expect the ECM to fall back in line with the GFS. I hope im wrong Id love a bit of snow after this winters so close yet so far scenario

cherryghost

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

whitebriar

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

One factor for sure though I think a major contributor was that there was very little troughing at both the lower and upper atmosphere which coincided with the coldest tongue of 850s. This was well modelled days in advance and alluded to on here more than once.

Well that's true enough,but the actual conditions created plenty showers,it's just they didn't dilly dally.
If they had,the waterford story where they did would have been more widespread.
Also the extent of the showers that actually happened was most definitely not well modeled days in advance.Their extent in my opinion was flagged reasonably days in advance though by some here via intuition.

So lesson learned,if you want snowmageddon,try not to have too high a driving wind.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

cherryghost wrote: »

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

Natural selection will pick off those that try :pac:

kenmc

cherryghost wrote: »

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

Sure thats why god invented TV. And the Mute button to avoid the inane prattle of the "commentators".

mike65

The equinox cannot arrive quickly enough! Soon Eurasia will have more daylight than dark and a sun at a higher angle and then its can be as easterly as it likes (cue swing to the west until December)

leahyl

Larbre34 wrote: »

all those travelling to London on 22nd March, step forward. NOT SO FAST YOU!

In all seriousness I would predict the chance of daytime transport disruption in Dublin as slight and even less in London, UK Met are posting potential snow for N and E England but milder in the SE

I'm flying from Cork Perhaps the snow shield will break down that day! :pac:

Larbre34

mike65 wrote: »

The equinox cannot arrive quickly enough! Soon Eurasia will have more daylight then dark and a sun at a higher angle and then its can be as easterly as it likes (cue swing to the west until December)

Not from round here are you?

You're in a place where people would rather see the Earth reverse its polarity and establish a prevailing wind from the East, modified continental hot summers and cold winters, real seasonality, real weather........

Larbre34

leahyl wrote: »

I'm flying from Cork Perhaps the snow shield will break down that day! :pac:

It got a bit dented the other day alright! Youre in even better shape if going from Cork, winds from the NNE wont cause you problems at origin or destination.....probably!

Rebelbrowser

leahyl wrote: »

Oh God I'm going to London on the 22nd.....this is the first time ever that I'm hoping it doesn't snow :eek:

I was like that on Monday. I was flying Gatwick to Cork at 1pm and I couldn't be delayed for various reasons. I ended up in London on Sunday night checking boards.ie just to make sure the rain over Cork didn't turn to snow. Then on Monday I was hoping it wouldn't snow before my flight in either London or Cork. I felt dirty!

As it happens there were a few cm on the ground at Gatwick but I got away nonetheless (though they spent a good half hour sprating anti freeze on the wings). When we were approaching Cork the pilot announced there was "heavy" snow in Cork. I thought briefly it would work out perfectly with the snow ariving in time for me and my little fella to enjoy on landing. Alas we just got dandruff falling for the rest of the day. As it happens we had a brief snowball fight in Gatwick so how bad....

Redsunset

There is a mild weather thread if that is your preference. Let folk talk about what may evolve in this thread. No need for it in here.

Also I have downgraded thread title as to just chat for now as it's still way off for any levels. Also the cold may be more Very than Severe and these can be amended if needed.

Red Pepper

cherryghost wrote: »

Personally I'd rather a very mild and dry St. Patrick's day. Nobody likes standing in biting winds watching the parade with their tits freezing off them.

St Paddy's parades are generally tedious. I think I would be more inclined to go if it was snowing and icy and watching other tits freezing

Elmer Blooker

mike65 wrote: »

The equinox cannot arrive quickly enough! Soon Eurasia will have more daylight than dark and a sun at a higher angle and then its can be as easterly as it likes (cue swing to the west until December)

Thats very true, continental climates have a very short spring as land masses warm up very quickly when the nights become shorter than the day, compare that with our climate when spring can last from January 1st until July 31st and autumn from August 1st until December 31st. (the sad thing is I am only half joking)
I presume the Arctic is colder in March than in January so we really need a very potent blast from the north.

ninebeanrows

Redsunset wrote: »

There is a mild weather thread if that is your preference. Let folk talk about what may evolve in this thread. No need for it in here.

Also I have downgraded thread title as to just chat for now as it's still way off for any levels. Also the cold may be more Very than Severe and these can be amended if needed.

This is what happens when you give up modship!

Perhaps Redsunset you should set up a Model Output Discussion thread rather than downgrading a thread tag. For which i think you were incorrect to do.

You also closed the previous cold weather thread and failed to open anything up for discussion.

ninebeanrows

UKM very much more inline with the ECM solution of the low position than the anomolous GFS.

UKM 144



GFS 144

Redsunset

Never stopped anyone opening a thread hence you started this. And no I don't think I was incorrect at this range. End of. Talk about the prospects now please.

Davaeo09

Crazy carry on :rolleyes:


When do people think these charts will be more dependable? Tomorrow night? Friday?

Deank

Davaeo09 wrote: »

Crazy carry on :rolleyes:


When do people think these charts will be more dependable? Tomorrow night? Friday?

With these charts I'd wait until Friday before ramping too much, tomorrow should tell us a great deal but come Friday it should be nailed on.

patneve2

GFS predicting quite a messy evolution on the 12z. UKMO and ECM look good though.

Redsunset

Any more off topic posts will be met with a ban.