The Great Storm of Wednesday 12/02/2014

A sting in the tail?

A very windy night in Galway tonight. Not damaging type windy but certainly very gusty.

Villain wrote: »

, I mean Met Eireann have issued an Orange Warning which is a serious threat yet we only see a level 1 here for a system which is over 48 hours away.

Just to go back to this point briefly, Met Eireann haven't issued any warning at all. The currently valid orange warning is a snow/ice warning for Donegal, valid for tonight and tomorrow. The only wind warning in operation in a yellow warning for gusts up to 100km/hr on south and west coasts valid for tonight.

The GEM also updates at 18z with its 48h RGEM, the 36h panel pretty much confirms what the GFS 18z is saying, the 48h panel does not extend as far east as Ireland but anyway, the general idea is to reinforce the 18z GFS from a model that has been spot on with just about every storm at short range this past winter. FYI the 06z Wed position is 51.8N 16.2W and 962 mbs on the RGEM.

This has already drifted north on most models now by 2 deg in the past two major runs, so what's the potential for further northward shifting and what would that mean to the forecast? I don't see much potential for further shifting, and any northward adjustment would likely come with a lower central pressure which might cancel out the differences to wind speed forecasts. There is probably something like a 20% chance of a southward adjustment before event time but not enough to avoid very strong winds in some parts of Ireland.

Therefore I think the thread is on track, and if things still look this way after the 00z runs we should probably go to a level 2 then upgrade to level 3 if 12z Tuesday confirms.

maquiladora wrote: »

Another look at the 18Z HIRLAM. The darkest area here running along the southwest coast indicates Force 12 winds.

Might ring up Sherkin island and see do they have a bed for the night? lol

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Is that sustained or gusts?

Sustained.

Iancar29 wrote: »

Might ring up Sherkin island and see do they have a bed for the night? lol

I'll join you and keep you safe. ("/)

Blustery enough here across the west at the moment with persistant rain and a gust of 51kts at Mace Head.

Its fast approaching five to midnight so if you have a radio/ Sky (0160) put on RTE Radio 1 for the latest in the general and sea area forecast

10m winds.



100 knot 850mb winds over the midlands/east.

I don't have access to the charts, but seemingly the 12Z ECM is showing 10m gusts up to 90-95 knots according to Ryan Maue.

Yikes...

munsterlegend wrote: »

Who is Ryan Maue when he is at home Maq?

He develops the model output for WeatherBell.

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

WRF at +47 hrs focusing on the UK & Ireland. Doesn't look good at all. What wind speeds does the pale part in the middle represent?

140-150 km/h

Apparently 140 km/hr ... looking back on historic storms, this one as currently depicted reminds me of Feb 26-27, 1903 which as you probably know was considered the worst windstorm since 1839 in Ireland and uprooted thousands of trees. The track was similar and maps don't show pressures as low as this one either.

However, still theorizing yet, the actual disturbance was a 1003 mb low south of Nova Scotia at 18z Monday and from ship obs I have it at 997 mbs south of the Avalon peninsula of Newfoundland now. The 1903 storm only formed about 24h before landfall on the map sequences but followed this general track.

this may indeed be the last of the major storms and maybe it will end it all in shtyle by blowing Ireland into Russia

Also, it's the upper level wind pattern that is concerning, with many of the deep lows all winter, the 500 mb flow did not distort the way it is shown to do in this approaching event. This is the ingredient that models are apparently translating as a sting jet set-up and enhanced surface winds.

One of the other models further back in this thread shows 100kt thats 115mph.Have we ever had that wind speed before.
That sort of wind will cause big trouble.