Summer 2017 - General Discussion

Here's MT's Summer 2017 forecast for anybody who did not see it today in his forecast thread.

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Summer 2017 Outlook -- Based on my research and a review of current trends in the global circulation, I am optimistic that this could become a relatively warm summer with one or two warm spells bordering on heat wave status for parts of the inland southeast and central counties. There may, however, be some rough stretches of cloudy, sometimes wet weather in June and the first week or two of July before this good summer weather fully asserts itself. Once established, the warmer trend may last well into September. So the two key features of my outlook would be (a) warmth becoming dominant around mid-July and (b) generally an improving trend as we go through the season. If this unfolds in that general way, it may appear that the summer is not starting out particularly well at some point in June, so I would say patience may be required and expect the best of the weather to fall after mid-July. That is not ruling out one settled week with plenty of sunshine sometime in June. As some of the analogues that I identified from similar trends include notable hot summers in the past, I can't rule out the possibility that this summer will do better than a slight improvement over average values. There is some chance, as I think others have been saying, that the summer will be a very good one. I am a bit hesitant to go "all in" on that because some analogues went in a different direction, especially in June. Whatever comes, I hope you enjoy your summer.

I researched warm Marches and dry Aprils before those in my analogues above and out of them all, there was one perfect match I could find that had both a warm March and very dry April. The year that was a perfect match was 1957. A mad fact to also add in with this is the fact that the CET (Central England Temperature) of April 1957 was 8.9c, April 2017 (60 years later) had a CET of 8.9c also! How coincidental is that!? A perfect match of a warm March and very dry April along with the same CET for both Aprils!? I am trying to calculate the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) for April 1957 to compare with April 2017's IMT of 8.8c but the lack of data and sources does not help me whatsoever . I had a look at what Summer 1957 and also May 1957 were like. This is the reanalysis I gathered for May 1957 from NOAA:



The setup for May 1957 with stubborn blocking over Greenland and the Arctic building through Ireland is in some ways similar to what May 2017 has been so far. Here's the reanalysis I gathered for May 1-16 2017:



This shows a stubborn block over Greenland and building through the UK & Ireland with a trough in the Atlantic. The main differences with May 1957 and what May 2017 has been like so far is that May 1957's wind direction was a northerly direction. May 2017's wind direction so far has been from an easterly direction. However, if you look at the general elements of weather like Rainfall, Temperature & Sunshine, both months are very similar to each other. Both months are "fairly cool" albeit some variations from place to place given how cold the nights were / have been in some locations. The rainfall for both months is below average (well May 2017 has been drier than normal so far despite a very wet previous week) and the sunshine for both months is above average. May 1957 was a pleasantly sunny month and May 2017 has seen a record breaking sunny start in places including Belmullet, Co. Mayo which has already seen more sunshine than what it should record normally for the whole month of May!

Now to talk about June. The models right now are showing quite a poor, changeable June. This was expected as you seen from my analogues anyway so you should not be surprised. Northern blocking is expected to continue through June according to the models with a trough near the country and the jet stream on a southerly track. June 1957 is sort of similar to what the models are showing for June 2017 as you can see from this reanalysis of June 1957:



This shows strong Northern Blocking during June 1957. However, some of it influenced the country and parts of central Europe. You'd normally think with quite strong Northern Blocking that it would have been a very poor June in 1957. Actually, June 1957 was not and was one of the better Junes of the 20th century. June 1957 was one of the sunniest Junes on record with many, many places recording at least 220 hours of sunshine. Some places even got up to 270-280 hours of sunshine. It was a rather warm June but nothing remarkable. It was also a very dry June. June 1957 goes to show ya that just because there is some strong Northern Blocking expected as we go into June 2017, it doesn't mean that June 2017 will be poor. It could be a very good month like June 1957!

Summer 1957 was overall a front loaded Summer however as it turned down hill after June:

June - Very sunny, dry and rather warm.
July - Rather mild but wet and dull.
August - Cool, wet and dull.

So not only was 1957 similar to 2017 with a warm March and very dry April but May's setup was quite similar and June's setup is looking to be also similar though the conditions for June 2017 look quite different. I also gathered these reanalysis charts on May and June 1995 because when I was looking through my analogues again, I saw 1995 and then had the idea that May 1995 had Northern Blocking similar to May 2017. Indeed it had, my theory was correct according to the reanalysis. The difference with May 1995 from May 2017 being is that there was a trough in May 1995 close to the country over Britain which brought a rather dull, wet and rather average temperature wise May.



I had a look at the reanalysis for June 1995 also to compare with May 1995 and the expected setup for June 2017 from the models. For the month as a whole, it shows a ridge of high pressure to the north of the country and building through us bringing a lot of anticyclonic weather. However, that's a monthly anomaly and does not show us the whole story for June 1995. If we look at it from a daily basis rather than the whole month, you will find that June 1995 started off very similar to what the models are showing for June 2017. June 1995 started off quite poor with dull and cool though not really wet conditions. Along with that, some very persistent Northern Blocking. As the month went on, however, the stubborn ridge of high pressure pushed southwards towards Ireland and soon built over the country bringing an exceptionally sunny and warm or even hot end to June 1995. So despite most of June 1995 being dull and cool, the last 10 days were very warm and sunny and made June 1995 warm and sunny overall. Could we have a month like June 1995 this June!? In my opinion, I don't think we will. May 1995 was very different in terms of the conditions to May 2017 so I think we should focus on 1957 as a "guide" for this Summer due to all the similarities. However, even when saying this, remember that there will NEVER be a year that is the exact same as another. I will release my Summer 2017 forecast on Tuesday, May 30th.

Judging by the above pictures which show the heat for the 29th, would it be reasonable to assume that the bank holiday weekend will be fairly warm?

pauldry wrote: »

No its a bank holiday

There will be 50mm of rain

Seriously

Wed 18c in west
Thurs 22c in west
Fri 23c in west
Sat 20c in west
Sun 17c in west rain 25mm
Mon 16c in west rain 25mm

Judging by that June 1st and 2nd will be the best days. Not too bad I suppose.
Where did you get that btw? Checked online and it's saying pissing rain most of the following week and max 17.

bear1 wrote: »

Judging by that June 1st and 2nd will be the best days. Not too bad I suppose.
Where did you get that btw? Checked online and it's saying pissing rain most of the following week and max 17.

'Em that's May 25th & 26th, not June 1st & 2nd.

more cloud in the forecast now,with rain threatening the west on friday,then unsettled for the weekend with much lower temperatures than what was being shown,fine weather hangs on in the uk for the weekend,with baking temperatures...god love us.

No panic, all can change.

squarecircles wrote: »

on a more positive note gfs is showing the azores high pushing up towards ireland at the start of june,keeping things relatively dry.:)

The AO is expected to go slightly positive or back to neutral and the NAO is expected to stay slightly negative as we go into June. Interesting to see the Azores High pushing up towards us with a negative NAO expected.

Gonzo wrote: »

unfortunately this is a horror show I've seen far too much over the years. Lets hope this is wrong and we get a warm, dry and hopefully sunny weekend.

Read my post I posted recently in the Spring discussion thread.

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Its Leaving Cert week. This is the Leaving Cert high pressure. Guaranteed, every year.

Who does their leaving cert in may?

Always remember on the way to my last exam someone on the radio saying "this summer is going to be a bad one".. that was 95

bear1 wrote: »

My birthday is on June 1st and we've a hotel booked near Clifden so here's hoping for minimum 20 degrees

Look at MT's current forecast and you will be happy :cool:.