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Summer 2017 - General Discussion

  • 24-02-2017 2:20pm
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    I have a feeling we are going to pay for all the blocked weather pattern we have had this winter over the next few months. I just can't wait for the pointless late March snow showers. Maybe we will get a bad spring, and then a good summer will follow.


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,446 ✭✭✭ pad199207


    I have a feeling we are going to pay for all the blocked weather pattern we have had this winter over the next few months. I just can't wait for the pointless late March snow showers. Maybe we will get a bad spring, and then a good summer will follow.


    Well the last bad spring we got was 2013. That summer was flipping fantastic


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,376 ✭✭✭ Reckless Abandonment


    Have to say I have the same feeling. It has been extremely calm and dry winter. On the east coast anyway.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    This weekend not looking good.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,544 ✭✭✭✭ Supercell


    Agree, fax charts look horrible, nature is going to balance out the relatively calm and dry winter.

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    I've a feeling the next few months is gonna have a very active atlantic with lots of rain and misery after a relatively dry 6 months, the big change started over 2 weeks ago and it's rained almost every day since.

    I would like at least 1 of the summer months to be dry and settled with above average temperatures and a few hot spells, but that is very much wishful thinking in a country such as ours.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I've a feeling the next few months is gonna have a very active atlantic with lots of rain and misery after a relatively dry 6 months, the big change started over 2 weeks ago and it's rained almost every day since.

    I would like at least 1 of the summer months to be dry and settled with above average temperatures and a few hot spells, but that is very much wishful thinking in a country such as ours.

    I'd like all 3 summer months to be dry and settled with above average temps and a few hot spells.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Our brains say an active Atlantic ahead for the next few months but the models (I'm just saying this, I'm not believing them :D) go for a very warm March (possibly up to the standard warmth of March 2012 in terms of temperature anomalies :eek:, mad how the models are going this extreme) whilst there is a split on precipitation. Some go for a pretty wet March whilst others go for a very dry and blocked March (BUT WARM). A very early burst of Summer they even show :P.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,995 ✭✭✭ Birdnuts


    We need a good summer as the curse of years ending in "8" means next summer is already looking grim:(


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    We need a good summer as the curse of years ending in "8" means next summer is already looking grim:(

    Years ending in "7" also don't have good summers :cool:.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Years ending in "7" also don't have good summers :cool:.

    Awwww, you have ruined my summer plans already :P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    highdef wrote: »
    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Years ending in "7" also don't have good summers :cool:.

    Awwww, you have ruined my summer plans already :P

    No signs for a bad Summer yet anyway, a bit of optimism there though it's far too early to say

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,298 ✭✭✭ Hooter23


    bbcb18669d38ddd5d68ff4e324d39ab1.jpg

    And some people think this is a joke:rolleyes::pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,652 ✭✭✭ screamer


    April is always better than the summer, so a crazy March is not out of the question.
    TBH, the weather is mostly just MEH MEH MEH with small variations of wetter/ colder/ sunnier (rarely)/ warmer. To the point where I've stopped watching the weather forecasts, and I just look out the window now most days for more meh weather. (I don't know how they made a whole industry out of forecasting), anyhoo....


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    screamer wrote: »
    April is always better than the summer

    So April was better than the Summer in 1983, 1984, 1989, 1995, 2000, 2006, 2013, 2014? Ok....

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    July right now is looking very good for hot and thundery weather lovers. This time last month, the model was showing the same thing so hopefully July's pattern will continue to persist on the model in the next few months.

    glbz700MonInd4.gif
    euPrecMonInd4.gif
    euT2mMonInd4.gif

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    I've gathered this reanalysis from NOAA. It is a Summer period reanalysis that shows all the summers that took place before El Ninos of the following Winter. The reanalysis shows a very deep trough over much of western Europe with a block of high pressure over the Arctic. This shows that the Summer that takes place before El Nino is a very unsettled one. Looking at the years themselves of the summers rather than the reanalysis, there are no exceptions to this as a matter of fact, all of them were poor summers.

    This is in great contrast to what the long range models are showing because the long range models are ALL showing a great Summer ahead of us and yes July is still looking thundery and hot! It's interesting how consistent the models have been with this July coming being like this. The reanalysis of Summers though definitely disagrees with the models, I'll believe the reanalysis any day however because of obvious reasons:

    1. Common sense, long range models are highly experimental
    2. Reanalysis is based on historical events

    BQ9H35j.png

    The Winter just gone (2016/17) was a weak La Nina Winter. This reanalysis is based on years with a weak La Nina Winter followed by an El Nino during the succeeding Winter. There is no difference with the other reanalysis above. This reanalysis still shows a deep trough right over the UK and Ireland bringing very poor Summer conditions. Definitely not looking good if an El Nino does take place!

    qsgkBKz.png

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Update on the CFS for Summer 2017 (22 April 2017)

    June - Looking like a very warm month. It could be the second successful very warm June. But at the same time, precipitation anomalies are coming out much wetter than average with low pressure to the southwest and high pressure over Scandinavia/northeast. This looks like a very mouth watery June if you like thunderstorms, lightning, Summer storms etc.

    July - The "thundery hot" scenario has been swapped around with June now. July is now looking like a very anticyclonic, dry and warm month.

    August - Probably the joke of the Summer. August is looking very different with a more mobile pattern. Depressions passing through Ireland throughout August on a powerful jet stream bringing an early taste of Autumn. Looking cool and very wet in August.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    I see The Weather Outlook team have their provisional Summer outlook predictions out.

    http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoother/twocontent.aspx?type=hpnews&id=3744&title=Summer+2017+weather

    I see me oul friend ENSO is mentioned.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,307 ✭✭✭✭ nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Update on the CFS for Summer 2017 (22 April 2017)

    June - Looking like a very warm month. It could be the second successful very warm June. But at the same time, precipitation anomalies are coming out much wetter than average with low pressure to the southwest and high pressure over Scandinavia/northeast. This looks like a very mouth watery June if you like thunderstorms, lightning, Summer storms etc.

    July - The "thundery hot" scenario has been swapped around with June now. July is now looking like a very anticyclonic, dry and warm month.

    .

    Our friend in Tuam will be very happy come June if the CFS is correct. I wouldn't say no to it either.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Here's what the JMA is showing for May to July

    May: A poor month with frequent easterly winds dominating and plenty of stubborn northern blocking. However, a trough to the south is successfully undercutting the block of high pressure to the north of Scotland which results in a cool and wet May.

    June: A low pressure to the northwest of Ireland and Scotland with a ridge of high pressure to the southeast. A straightforward June in a mobile westerly pattern so wet and mild basically.

    July: A ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic, building through the country and much of Europe. However, there is a trough to the north of the ridge which could undercut the high pressure which will result in a rather cool and wet July.

    The JMA's side to things is showing a very poor start to the Summer.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 Clonmel1000


    Jesus Syran I really hope that's not in any way true.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 15,179 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Here's what the JMA is showing for May to July

    May: A poor month with frequent easterly winds dominating and plenty of stubborn northern blocking. However, a trough to the south is successfully undercutting the block of high pressure to the north of Scotland which results in a cool and wet May.

    June: A low pressure to the northwest of Ireland and Scotland with a ridge of high pressure to the southeast. A straightforward June in a mobile westerly pattern so wet and mild basically.

    July: A ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic, building through the country and much of Europe. However, there is a trough to the north of the ridge which could undercut the high pressure which will result in a rather cool and wet July.

    The JMA's side to things is showing a very poor start to the Summer.

    A horrible prediction but a Summer's forecast we are quite familiar with unfortunately.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Out of the 11 driest Aprils since 1950 (11 so as to include 1995), 7/11 of the Junes were wetter than normal, with a few very wet Junes in there as well (1982, 1997, 1980 and 2007). 7/11 Augusts were wetter than normal, while no real signal in July but only 2/11 Julys (1957 and 2007) were significantly wet.

    Interesting to see a few very hot summers in the mix as well though (1976, 1995, 1997 Aug), so clearly some divergence of possible scenarios as we reach summer. Summers 2011 and 2007 diverged the wrong way, following a very dry April!

    More generally, a negative NAO in June has certainly been on the increase in last 10-20yrs if you look at the stats, with low pressure often ending up near or over the UK. Whether this is climate change related or variable cycle (perhaps related to the positive phase of the AMO index) remains to be seen.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    The general long range model consensus is showing that Summer 2017 is likely to be a warmer than average Summer. All 11 models except the CFS is going for a warmer than average Summer. The CFS is going for a near average temperature Summer whilst Spain & France are coming out cooler than average so you could say that it's hinting at a cooler than average Summer as a result. It's not well supported though as all the other 10 models are going for a warm Summer.

    Precipitation is not as straightforward as temperature. Most of the models are going for a near normal precipitation Summer. The CFS and UK Met Office are going for a wetter than average Summer whilst the BCC and Jamstec are going for a very dry and settled Summer.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 174 ✭✭ johndeere3350


    Go on someone give us a hint at what the summer is going to be like.
    Has Mt given his usual predictions yet?
    Accuweather is hinting at a bit of rain for a few days next week and then back to this weather!!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Go on someone give us a hint at what the summer is going to be like.
    Has Mt given his usual predictions yet?
    Accuweather is hinting at a bit of rain for a few days next week and then back to this weather!!

    Not that I know of. And huge update guys!

    Here's what the CFS v2 is showing for the Summer period:

    June - Shows a trough over the Mediterranean with a build of high pressure to the north of Scotland and reaching over to Scandinavia allowing the wind direction to come from an easterly. The precipitation is coming out above average but only slightly so. Temperatures are coming out between 0.5-1.0c above the average. So a rather warm and wet June is the likelihood here although there is the possibility for some very warm and then thundery moments with the wind coming from an easterly.

    July - Shows a ridge of high pressure building from Latvia all the way to the west of Ireland although it is quite a weak ridge. There is no low heights to the north of Ireland but judging from this weak ridge, I am guessing that there is some sort of trough here bringing the jet stream quite close to Ireland which could have an effect on precipitation being above average across some northern and northwestern regions. The precipitation is coming out average across Ireland with the exception of the southeastern regions being drier than average. There's wetter than average conditions to the extreme northwest of Scotland which goes back to my theory I just mentioned nicely that I guessed there'd be a trough near us. Temperature anomalies are coming out average to the warmer than average side. Nothing exciting. Quite an average, changeable July on the horizon. However, given the pressure distribution, I would have thought it'd be much much warmer than what the CFS v2 is showing so I think it's undercooking the temperatures a bit too low. Despite the CFS showing it as a fairly average July, given the pressure distribution, I think it will be a decent July.

    August - Shows a ridge out in the Atlantic as well as to the north of Scandinavia. There is nothing over Ireland but I'm guessing that there is a trough around us, a very weak trough given the setup. The precipitation is coming out average for Ireland but well above average across Scotland and much of the eastern UK. This could be due to the high pressure in the Atlantic bringing some drier periods at times over Ireland compared to the UK being underneath the trough. Temperature anomalies are coming out average whilst much of Europe is coming out colder than average but only slightly so. I think it will be a rather cool August given the pressure setup.

    The CFS v2 overall is then going for a warmer than average Summer but only slightly so along with rather average precipitation. Nothing exciting but definitely not looking like a terrible Summer.

    Every model that has already been going for a warm and dry Summer is still predicting it to be.

    The UK Met Office model is now going for a warm and dry Summer! After looking like quite a wet Summer with the model in April, now it's looking quite dry.

    Summer 2017 is not looking that bad at all right now according to the models. The CFS v2 is going for quite a boring Summer though.

    The reason the CFS v2 is possibly thinking August 2017 will be a poor month is because of the potential Weak El Nino event which would have an effect on August's weather they say.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,829 ✭✭✭✭ Gael23


    What's August looking like in terms of rainfall?


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Gael23 wrote: »
    What's August looking like in terms of rainfall?

    Did you bother reading my full post above?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    This is an interesting chart I found here on UKWeatherworld (UKWW): http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/115796-summer-nao-9-out-of-last-10-years-significantly-negative/. Cheers to them and Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/premature-heat-grips-mediterranean-deadly-forest-fire-greece.

    This chart shows the NAO index for every Summer from 1950-2016. 9 out of the last 10 summers (2007-2016) have seen a negative NAO index. Only Summer 2013 had a positive NAO index which would perfectly explain for the lack of good summers since Summer 2007.

    According to Todd Crawford, this unusually long period of -NAO summers could be blamed on the low Arctic sea ice in Spring 2007 which would soon become a common thing for many years to the present day. It is also said that the cold blob in the Atlantic for the previous couple of years is also to blame for our negative NAO summers which I agree with.

    After reading this chart very closely and carefully, these are the estimated NAO index for every Summer since 2007.

    2007: -0.8
    2008: -1.3
    2009: -1.2
    2010: -0.8
    2011: -1.4
    2012: -1.6
    2013: 0.75 (I can't tell if it's 0.7 or 0.8)
    2014: -0.8
    2015: -1.3
    2016: -1.2

    bG6xyHB.jpg

    After carefully examining the full chart, I have made these pressure reanalysis' on the summers with a negative NAO since 1950.

    This first chart is on the Summers pre-Summer 2007 that had a negative NAO, so summers with a negative NAO from Summer 1950-2006.

    Bf2eyJb.png

    This second chart is on the Summers post-Summer 2007 that had a negative NAO including Summer 2007, so summers with a negative NAO from Summer 2007-2016.

    8KamVNk.png

    Both of these are very similar but there's two small differences between them:

    1. In the second chart, the Greenland blocking is much more stubborn.
    2. In the first chart, the trough over Ireland is much deeper.

    This suggests that the summers since 2007 have had more common and more stubborn Greenland blocking which is never a good sign for the Summer. As a result, many of our summers have been poor since. Let's look at Summer 2016 since it was quite an odd Summer in terms of the setup. In spite of the Summer having a negative NAO with Greenland blocking, there was also a ridge of high pressure over central Europe extending into the south of the UK and some parts of Ireland with the jet stream over the west and north of Ireland. With the Greenland blocking and the ridge of high pressure fighting against one other, the jet stream was over Ireland much of the time. The high pressure over the south of the UK led to the warmth of the summer. However, with all that moisture coming off the Atlantic with the jet stream and all that warmth coming from the high pressure, it meant that humidity was quite high. With humidity high, it meant that cloud amounts were quite high too which gave away to quite a dull Summer across Ireland and much of the UK. Knock Airport for example had its dullest Summer on record. Without the ridge to the south of the UK, it would have been very likely that the Summer would be cold and wet instead of warm, rather dry (depending on the place) and dull. I thought I'd give this as an example as just because there is Greenland blocking, it doesn't mean the Summer cannot be warmer than average as shown by Summer 2016.

    g6SkLaJ.png

    With another positive NAO Winter in 2016/17, it is likely that Summer 2017 will be another negative NAO Summer for the 4th year in a row. So not looking that good here despite what the models show! And if we do get a negative NAO and therefore Greenland blocking, let's hope we will have a Summer like 2016 again where at least it's warm compared to the cold and wet situation without the ridge of high pressure. It would be interesting to see which you people would prefer, a Summer like 2015, cold and wet? Or a Summer like 2016, warm, dry and dull?

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    This is going to be a long post here so keep with me. I'm going to be showing lots of reanalysis charts from NOAA based on historical events like warm Marches, dry Aprils etc. I have done some analogues on these in the Spring weather thread but these are going to be the reanalysis charts this time. Sorry, if I have done some of these in this thread already. I want everything to be in this post as I'm going to go fully in-depth with this update in all aspects. I'm going to start off with some of the driest Aprils on record in Ireland since the start of the 20th century and the summers that followed said Aprils. Beware that some of these dry Aprils were very difficult to find info on as the further back you go, Ireland's historical weather data gets very scarce.

    FzNvtW6.png

    The reanalysis shows quite a variety of summers in Ireland regarding the weather ranging from very poor ones like 2007 to super terrific ones like 1995 and 1976. Overall, the reanalysis comes out with a stubborn area of high pressure to the northwest of Scotland and the north of Ireland with a deep trough way to the south and east of Europe. This shows a spectacular Summer setup as it would bring a very settled and warm, or maybe even hot Summer. This reanalysis contradicts many people's theory that a dry April leads to a very unsettled Summer. However, if we go from 1958 backwards (with the exception of 1955), you'll find that this theory is indeed correct. Back then, that was the case. The driest Aprils on record that took place from 1900-1958 were all indeed followed by very poor summers with two of the poorest summers on record included, 1912 and 1954. If you're unsure of what them summers were like, well here ya go.

    1912
    June: Very wet, cool and rather dull.
    July: Rather wet, dull and mild.
    August: Dullest, wettest and coldest August & Summer month on record.

    *1912 is the wettest Summer on record to this day in the UK followed by 2012 at second place.

    1954
    June: Very wet, dull and cool.
    July: Exceptionally dull and cold. Rather dry.
    August: Awfully wet, dull and cold.

    *1954 is the dullest Summer on record to this day in the UK.

    Back to the reanalysis, all the summers in it are 2007, 1997, 1995, 1984, 1982, 1981, 1980, 1978, 1976 and 1955.

    4 of these summers were wetter than average across Ireland {2007, 1997, 1980 and 1978} whilst 1982 was close to average and the rest were very dry. 1995, 1984, 1976 and 1955 were all pretty warm or even hot summers and are regarded as some of the best summers on record in Ireland (well 1995 and 1976 are THE best). 1984 is a very forgotten Summer and is overshadowed by Summer 1983 but it was a very good decent Summer. 1981 meanwhile was a very weird and different Summer. It was very cool, dry and dull. The high pressure was over Ireland and therefore to the west of the UK bringing the winds in from the north. However, the high pressure was close enough to give a very dry Summer across the UK and Ireland as you can see in this reanalysis:

    CpDxM1E.png

    As is the case with northerly winds in Summer however, it was a very dull and cool Summer at the same time. In some places, it was the dullest Summer on record whilst most places, the previous Summer, 1980 was duller and is Ireland's current dullest Summer on record. Here are the IMTs (Irish Mean Temperatures) for the summers in the reanalysis back to 1981 as this is how far back I have calculated the IMTs for up to this point.

    Remember that the IMT averages for each month are 13.7c for June, 15.4c for July and 15.4c for August.

    1981
    June: 12.0c (-1.7c below the LTA)
    July: 14.2c (-1.2c below the LTA)
    August: 16.0c (+0.6c above the LTA)

    1982
    June: 13.9c (+0.2c above the LTA)
    July: 16.4c (+1.0c above the LTA)
    August: 15.1c (-0.3c below the LTA)

    1984
    June: 14.0c (+0.3c above the LTA)
    July: 16.2c (+0.8c above the LTA)
    August: 16.9c (+1.5c above the LTA)

    1995
    June: 14.4c (+0.7c above the LTA)
    July: 16.9c (+1.5c above the LTA)
    August: 18.2c (+2.8c above the LTA)

    1997
    June: 13.4c (-0.3c below the LTA)
    July: 15.8c (+0.4c above the LTA)
    August: 17.2c (+1.8c above the LTA)

    2007
    June: 14.0c (+0.3c above the LTA)
    July: 14.5c (-0.9c below the LTA)
    August: 14.9c (-0.5c below the LTA)

    As you can see from the summers that were followed by very dry Aprils since 1981, the summers tend to be warmer than average with only 1981 significantly cooler than average and 2007 was only slightly below average.

    When we consider all the temperatures and rainfall and put all of them together, it comes out as this:

    Temperatures should be somewhat "warm" rather than "mild" due to the frequency of warm summers that were preceded by very dry Aprils in recent years. The IMT anomaly (using the information from NOAA also) for all these summers in the reanalysis, including those I have not calculated the IMT for, comes out as +0.5c above the average. In these summers, June tends to be the worst month of the Summer with July or August likely to be the best month for any Summer weather {For example, 1955, 1981, 1982 and 1997 in particular}. If we look at individual summers from the reanalysis, a very hot Summer is definitely not out of the question as 1976 and 1995 (Ireland's hottest summers on record) are in there with the dry Aprils. An alright Summer, temperature wise like 1984 is more likely than a poor Summer according to the reanalysis of dry Aprils in recent times.

    A drier than average Summer is highly possible according to the reanalysis with the mean % of average rainfall expected to be around 85-95% of the average so quite a dry Summer indeed is possible. Again, there is still some possibility for an unsettled Summer due to the frequency of unsettled summers from 1958 backwards that were preceded by very dry Aprils and also some of the summers in the reanalysis have months like June 1982 or August 1997 which were very wet months and August 1997 being record breakingly wet. See here to read about the record breaking rainfall event of 3-6 August 1997: http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/August%201997.pdf

    So not looking that bad overall in terms of dry Aprils (in recent times at least) for Summer 2017.

    This is my analogues on warm Marches in Ireland since 1990 which I previously posted in the Spring discussion thread but like I said, I want everything regarding reanalysis, analogues etc for Summer 2017 to be included and talked about in-depth in this post. My analogues of warm Marches since 1990 showed a very mixed image for Summer 2017 with June likely to be slightly cooler than average and July & August to be slightly warmer than average with the Summer being quite average overall. There's quite a mixture of summers in there is what you have to consider however. All the years with warm Marches I've named in the analogues there are 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2012 and 2014. For a warm March to be in my analogues, the IMT has to be at least +0.5c above the average or else it's considered a close to average March regarding temperatures.

    hhU8aWr.png

    When we put all the warm Marches since 1990 together into a pressure reanalysis of the summers that followed them, this is what you get:

    x9Y1hc3.png

    This reanalysis shows plenty of very stubborn northern blocking along with a very deep trough over Ireland and through the UK with the jet stream coming straight through the country. This is the recipe of a very poor Summer setup and indeed, many of the summers in the reanalysis are very, very poor. What a complete contrast with the dry Aprils reanalysis. You can see the IMTs for each of the summers and their months in my analogues above. We can clearly see that warm Marches are not a good sign for the Summer that succeed them. 1990, 2000, 2003, 2005 and 2014 were all the exceptions which were all pretty decent summers albeit not brilliant with the exception of 2003.

    1990 had a very poor June, sunny July and very warm but dull August (dullest on record in the northwest). 2000 had a dull and rather mild June but some very warm days mid-month (inc. Casement Aerodrome's warmest day in June on record), rather mild and sunny July along with a fine sunny and warm August. 2003 had a warm but wet June, warm and very dull July with mixed rainfall and a hot, sunny and dry August (as you can see in the analogues, August 2003 had an IMT of 17.3c, +1.9c above the average!). 2005 had a very warm but dull June, warm and dull July along with a rather sunny and mild August. July 2005 was very wet in parts of the south and east with Rosslare, Co. Wexford having its wettest July on record but that was all because of two very wet periods, 23rd/24th and 28th/29th which was remarkable how two very wet periods made it the station's wettest July. 2014 had a very nice June, fine July (especially in the east) but a very cold and wet August.

    There isn't much positivity to go off of regarding warm Marches since 1990 unfortunately.

    Like I said above, it looks like that Summer 2017 will have a negative NAO for the fourth year in a row which is not looking good at all for Summer 2017. Summers that have a negative NAO tend to be poor and there are very very few exceptions with good summers having a negative NAO. An example is 2010. Though it is super underrated, Summer 2010 was very decent with the exception of quite a poor July. It had a stunner of a June along with a fine August and two good months outweigh one poor month.

    I've been editing this post for a few days now so expect some "out of date" information if you know what I mean. Anyway, hope you've found this long post informative and I will be making my official Summer 2017 forecast soon if I can.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



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