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Summer 2017 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Here's MT's Summer 2017 forecast for anybody who did not see it today in his forecast thread.
    Summer 2017 Outlook -- Based on my research and a review of current trends in the global circulation, I am optimistic that this could become a relatively warm summer with one or two warm spells bordering on heat wave status for parts of the inland southeast and central counties. There may, however, be some rough stretches of cloudy, sometimes wet weather in June and the first week or two of July before this good summer weather fully asserts itself. Once established, the warmer trend may last well into September. So the two key features of my outlook would be (a) warmth becoming dominant around mid-July and (b) generally an improving trend as we go through the season. If this unfolds in that general way, it may appear that the summer is not starting out particularly well at some point in June, so I would say patience may be required and expect the best of the weather to fall after mid-July. That is not ruling out one settled week with plenty of sunshine sometime in June. As some of the analogues that I identified from similar trends include notable hot summers in the past, I can't rule out the possibility that this summer will do better than a slight improvement over average values. There is some chance, as I think others have been saying, that the summer will be a very good one. I am a bit hesitant to go "all in" on that because some analogues went in a different direction, especially in June. Whatever comes, I hope you enjoy your summer.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    i think a few weeks of warm, dry and sunny weather throughout summer is the best we can hope for in this country. We've had 2 fine weeks already even if it was cool, which is better than what we've had some year's already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I researched warm Marches and dry Aprils before those in my analogues above and out of them all, there was one perfect match I could find that had both a warm March and very dry April. The year that was a perfect match was 1957. A mad fact to also add in with this is the fact that the CET (Central England Temperature) of April 1957 was 8.9c, April 2017 (60 years later) had a CET of 8.9c also! How coincidental is that!? A perfect match of a warm March and very dry April along with the same CET for both Aprils!? I am trying to calculate the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) for April 1957 to compare with April 2017's IMT of 8.8c but the lack of data and sources does not help me whatsoever :(. I had a look at what Summer 1957 and also May 1957 were like. This is the reanalysis I gathered for May 1957 from NOAA:

    sZr6Qy7.png

    The setup for May 1957 with stubborn blocking over Greenland and the Arctic building through Ireland is in some ways similar to what May 2017 has been so far. Here's the reanalysis I gathered for May 1-16 2017:

    l1RSvqv.gif?1

    This shows a stubborn block over Greenland and building through the UK & Ireland with a trough in the Atlantic. The main differences with May 1957 and what May 2017 has been like so far is that May 1957's wind direction was a northerly direction. May 2017's wind direction so far has been from an easterly direction. However, if you look at the general elements of weather like Rainfall, Temperature & Sunshine, both months are very similar to each other. Both months are "fairly cool" albeit some variations from place to place given how cold the nights were / have been in some locations. The rainfall for both months is below average (well May 2017 has been drier than normal so far despite a very wet previous week) and the sunshine for both months is above average. May 1957 was a pleasantly sunny month and May 2017 has seen a record breaking sunny start in places including Belmullet, Co. Mayo which has already seen more sunshine than what it should record normally for the whole month of May!

    Now to talk about June. The models right now are showing quite a poor, changeable June. This was expected as you seen from my analogues anyway so you should not be surprised. Northern blocking is expected to continue through June according to the models with a trough near the country and the jet stream on a southerly track. June 1957 is sort of similar to what the models are showing for June 2017 as you can see from this reanalysis of June 1957:

    PgnxgYV.png

    This shows strong Northern Blocking during June 1957. However, some of it influenced the country and parts of central Europe. You'd normally think with quite strong Northern Blocking that it would have been a very poor June in 1957. Actually, June 1957 was not and was one of the better Junes of the 20th century. June 1957 was one of the sunniest Junes on record with many, many places recording at least 220 hours of sunshine. Some places even got up to 270-280 hours of sunshine. It was a rather warm June but nothing remarkable. It was also a very dry June. June 1957 goes to show ya that just because there is some strong Northern Blocking expected as we go into June 2017, it doesn't mean that June 2017 will be poor. It could be a very good month like June 1957!

    Summer 1957 was overall a front loaded Summer however as it turned down hill after June:

    June - Very sunny, dry and rather warm.
    July - Rather mild but wet and dull.
    August - Cool, wet and dull.

    So not only was 1957 similar to 2017 with a warm March and very dry April but May's setup was quite similar and June's setup is looking to be also similar though the conditions for June 2017 look quite different. I also gathered these reanalysis charts on May and June 1995 because when I was looking through my analogues again, I saw 1995 and then had the idea that May 1995 had Northern Blocking similar to May 2017. Indeed it had, my theory was correct according to the reanalysis. The difference with May 1995 from May 2017 being is that there was a trough in May 1995 close to the country over Britain which brought a rather dull, wet and rather average temperature wise May.

    ZQhT5DO.png

    I had a look at the reanalysis for June 1995 also to compare with May 1995 and the expected setup for June 2017 from the models. For the month as a whole, it shows a ridge of high pressure to the north of the country and building through us bringing a lot of anticyclonic weather. However, that's a monthly anomaly and does not show us the whole story for June 1995. If we look at it from a daily basis rather than the whole month, you will find that June 1995 started off very similar to what the models are showing for June 2017. June 1995 started off quite poor with dull and cool though not really wet conditions. Along with that, some very persistent Northern Blocking. As the month went on, however, the stubborn ridge of high pressure pushed southwards towards Ireland and soon built over the country bringing an exceptionally sunny and warm or even hot end to June 1995. So despite most of June 1995 being dull and cool, the last 10 days were very warm and sunny and made June 1995 warm and sunny overall. Could we have a month like June 1995 this June!? In my opinion, I don't think we will. May 1995 was very different in terms of the conditions to May 2017 so I think we should focus on 1957 as a "guide" for this Summer due to all the similarities. However, even when saying this, remember that there will NEVER be a year that is the exact same as another. I will release my Summer 2017 forecast on Tuesday, May 30th.

    3CyUTSc.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    I think this Summer will be slightly better than average

    Rainfall will be slightly less than average and temperatures higher than average due to humid days and mild nights.

    Overall I dont think any month will stand out and that every month will see a few warm spells. As is often the case the end of July looks likely to be the warmest time. The warm spells that do occur will be around 5 to 7 days ending in some heavy thundery outbursts.

    Early August would seem a likely time for thunder and I think there will be some very heavy thundery showers during June as convection builds under slack lows.

    High pressure will never be too far away so dry weather will be as common as wet this Summer. I dont forsee a Summer of more than 60 wet days like 2007 but one a bit like last year but a bit better.

    I think in "Summer"y

    Thundery warm June
    Mixed July but hot late on
    Thunderstorms and cooler August


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    BBC's forecast for here after next Wednesday looks really good, plenty of warm sunshine during the final week of May, hopefully this will turn out to be true.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    West is best again :) mini heatwave anyone,approaching the mid twenties and some balmy nights if this comes off, June is going to be so rubbish init.

    ukmaxtemp.png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    ukmaxtemp.png

    ukmaxtemp.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Judging by the above pictures which show the heat for the 29th, would it be reasonable to assume that the bank holiday weekend will be fairly warm?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    No its a bank holiday

    There will be 50mm of rain

    Seriously

    Wed 18c in west
    Thurs 22c in west
    Fri 23c in west
    Sat 20c in west
    Sun 17c in west rain 25mm
    Mon 16c in west rain 25mm


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    pauldry wrote: »
    No its a bank holiday

    There will be 50mm of rain

    Seriously

    Wed 18c in west
    Thurs 22c in west
    Fri 23c in west
    Sat 20c in west
    Sun 17c in west rain 25mm
    Mon 16c in west rain 25mm

    Judging by that June 1st and 2nd will be the best days. Not too bad I suppose.
    Where did you get that btw? Checked online and it's saying pissing rain most of the following week and max 17.


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,123 ✭✭✭✭km79


    pauldry wrote: »
    No its a bank holiday

    There will be 50mm of rain

    Seriously

    Wed 18c in west
    Thurs 22c in west
    Fri 23c in west
    Sat 20c in west
    Sun 17c in west rain 25mm
    Mon 16c in west rain 25mm

    It's not a bank holiday


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    bear1 wrote: »
    Judging by that June 1st and 2nd will be the best days. Not too bad I suppose.
    Where did you get that btw? Checked online and it's saying pissing rain most of the following week and max 17.

    'Em that's May 25th & 26th, not June 1st & 2nd.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    'Em that's May 25th & 26th, not June 1st & 2nd.

    Oh right I thought it was the following week. I.e bank holiday weekend.
    Then I guess the forecast I saw is correct.. crap.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    So we are gone from mini heatwave and 25 degrees to what exactly?


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,065 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    So we are gone from mini heatwave and 25 degrees to what exactly?

    As far as I can see, it's not changed much, just doesn't look good for the weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    more cloud in the forecast now,with rain threatening the west on friday,then unsettled for the weekend with much lower temperatures than what was being shown,fine weather hangs on in the uk for the weekend,with baking temperatures...god love us.

    ukmaxtemp.png

    ukprec.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Unbelievable.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,082 ✭✭✭pad199207


    No panic, all can change.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    on a more positive note gfs is showing the azores high pushing up towards ireland at the start of june,keeping things relatively dry.:)


    airpressure.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    on a more positive note gfs is showing the azores high pushing up towards ireland at the start of june,keeping things relatively dry.:)


    airpressure.png

    The AO is expected to go slightly positive or back to neutral and the NAO is expected to stay slightly negative as we go into June. Interesting to see the Azores High pushing up towards us with a negative NAO expected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,788 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Its Leaving Cert week. This is the Leaving Cert high pressure. Guaranteed, every year.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Its Leaving Cert week. This is the Leaving Cert high pressure. Guaranteed, every year.

    Syran it would be interesting to have a look at historical weather for LC week. I did mine in 1993.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    more cloud in the forecast now,with rain threatening the west on friday,then unsettled for the weekend with much lower temperatures than what was being shown,fine weather hangs on in the uk for the weekend,with baking temperatures...god love us.

    ukmaxtemp.png

    ukprec.png

    unfortunately this is a horror show I've seen far too much over the years. Lets hope this is wrong and we get a warm, dry and hopefully sunny weekend.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    unfortunately this is a horror show I've seen far too much over the years. Lets hope this is wrong and we get a warm, dry and hopefully sunny weekend.

    Read my post I posted recently in the Spring discussion thread.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I am going to write summaries over time for previous LC periods. As reference so I will not have to look all over the internet for the dates multiple times, these are the LC period dates. For now, you will have the 2016 summary.

    2016: 8-24 June
    2015: 3-19 June
    2014: 4-20 June
    2013: 5-21 June
    2012: 6-22 June
    2011: 8-24 June
    2010: 9-25 June
    2009: 3-19 June
    2008: 4-20 June
    2007: 6-22 June
    2006: 7-23 June
    2005: 8-24 June
    2004: 9-25 June
    2003: 4-20 June
    2002: 5-21 June
    2001: 6-22 June
    2000: 7-23 June
    1999: 9-25 June
    1998: 3-19 June
    1997: 4-20 June
    1996: 5-21 June
    1995: 7-23 June
    1994: 8-24 June
    1993: 9-25 June
    1992: 3-19 June
    1991: 5-21 June
    1990: 6-22 June

    2016: After a relatively fine start on the 8th/9th June though the favored weather more focused in western regions where temperatures were up to 25c (and eastern regions were quite cloudy), it became much more unsettled. It was cloudy and muggy for much of the period. The 13th and 14th were very wet days in places.

    13th
    Markree Castle: 33.5mm
    Knock Airport: 26.6mm
    Mt. Dillon: 17.2mm
    Gurteen: 15.8mm
    Oak Park: 13.7mm

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100034787&postcount=440

    14th
    Mullingar: 33.2mm
    Belmullet: 25.9mm
    Mt. Dillon: 24.8mm
    Finner Camp: 24.0mm
    Gurteen: 20.4mm
    Knock Airport: 19.9mm
    Phoenix Park: 19.3mm
    Markree Castle: 12.7mm

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100046592&postcount=467

    Even on the 15th, some places had some very heavy falls:

    Mt. Dillon: 27.0mm
    Ballyhaise: 12.4mm

    As a result of these three very wet days, Mt. Dillon had already recorded more than its whole June rainfall.

    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=100055479&postcount=475

    Rain was on and off from 10th June onwards generally and June 2016 turned to be quite a poor month despite a very promising and fine start. The LC period for 2016 was also very poor.


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,065 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Its Leaving Cert week. This is the Leaving Cert high pressure. Guaranteed, every year.

    Who does their leaving cert in may?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Who does their leaving cert in may?

    He's referring to the high pressure sticking around into early June though the exams don't start 'til the 7th so I'm confused actually.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭Reckless Abandonment


    Always remember on the way to my last exam someone on the radio saying "this summer is going to be a bad one".. that was 95 ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    My birthday is on June 1st and we've a hotel booked near Clifden so here's hoping for minimum 20 degrees :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    bear1 wrote: »
    My birthday is on June 1st and we've a hotel booked near Clifden so here's hoping for minimum 20 degrees :)

    Look at MT's current forecast and you will be happy :cool:.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    2015: This LC period unlike 2016's one was actually quite good weather wise. After the blustery conditions cleared on the 2nd, the 3rd was a much better day with fine sunny spells and temperatures just slightly below average. The 4th and 5th brought temperatures up to average in places. Some rain pushed into the west on the 4th but other than that, it was again pleasantly dry and sunny. This fine weather continued for a week. The 7th-10th was a very sunny period with places having more than 40 hours of sunshine recorded during it. Daytime temperatures were around average and nothing exciting though like 15 or 16c at best. Nightime temperatures were shockingly cool with Dublin Airport having its coldest June night on record on the 9th with a minimum of 0.7c. Rain pushed into the west on the 11th but that didn't amount to much and then cleared the country. It was rather dull for the rest of the period though the east did have some nice sunny spells at times. Some rain crossing the country on the 16th/17th but it was very patchy. Other than that, mostly dry in places. June finally recorded at least 20c on the 16th in parts of the east. Not a brilliant LC period weather wise but it was a pleasant spell of weather despite the very cool nights at times.


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