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Summer 2017 - General Discussion

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    This week will prob see one good day in the West on Thursday and humid Friday and Wednesday

    Then rain for weekend and sun again middle of next week before rain for BH weekend.

    Sundays are rarely Sunny in the West.

    Have you a comparison of Saturday and Sunday sunshine hours in the West for 2017 syran


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Look at MT's current forecast and you will be happy :cool:.


    SUNDAY 28th to TUESDAY 30th are looking considerably warmer (21 to 24 C seems possible now) than they were looking in the past few days, as the models seem to be getting that warm summer signal we are all hoping to see. The cooler push seems to be much weaker now and delayed to at least the end of the month, and even then temperatures are likely to remain near average (about 18-20 C by the first of June





    :cool:


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    This week will prob see one good day in the West on Thursday and humid Friday and Wednesday

    Then rain for weekend and sun again middle of next week before rain for BH weekend.

    Sundays are rarely Sunny in the West.

    Have you a comparison of Saturday and Sunday sunshine hours in the West for 2017 syran

    Here's a summary of every weekend (Saturday & Sunday) of 2017 so far for you Pauldry. I hope it's what you were asking for.

    January
    December 31st/January 1st: Saturday (Dec 31st) was cloudy and mild throughout with rain pushing southeastwards which would introduce a cooler air mass to Ireland on Sunday (New Year's Day). In the cooler air, there were some sunny spells but maximum hours were only up to 3 hours of sunshine at best. For early January, that is quite good though as days are so short then.

    7th/8th: Some early rain from the 6th in places but other than that, a very damp and mild weekend throughout. Plenty of cloud and temperatures around 11-12c. Like I said, it was damp so there were some spotted drizzle at times as the cloud got very thick.

    14th/15th: Some sunny spells on Saturday though more concentrated on the east of Ireland. However, Belmullet did achieve a jammy 2 hours of sunshine :p. Other than that, another very damp and mild weekend with similar conditions to those of the 7th/8th.

    21st/22nd: A brighter weekend for places than many previous weekends. Low pressure was to the extreme west of Ireland so the southwest had to continue to suffer cloud. Most places though enjoyed some pleasant sunshine this weekend. Belmullet nearly recorded 6 hours of sunshine for example on the 21st.

    28th/29th: Saturday had some pleasant sunny spells at times though rain did push in by the end of the day ruining Sunday which would be a very damp day with on and off drizzle. Temperatures reached near 13c on the 29th in parts of the south. They were around average on the 28th.

    February
    4th/5th: Alright weekend. Temperatures were around average. The basic synopsis of this weekend was sunshine and showers. Sunshine totals were up to 8 hours of sunshine by the end of this weekend and some places even recorded 6-8 hours of sunshine on the 5th itself whilst many recorded 4 hours of sunshine on the 4th. Possibly the best weekend of 2017 up to this point.

    11th/12th: The 11th was a very sunny day in the west of up to 5-8 hours of sunshine - in contrast with the east which was very cloudy and miserable with some rain. Temperatures were at 5-7c during the weekend so slightly below average for February. Sunshine totals were reduced on the 12th in the west but at least you still recorded at least 2 hours of sunshine unlike the east where we recorded none in miserable on and off rain and cold temperatures.

    18th/19th: Much milder than the previous weekend with temperatures in the 11-13c range. Saturday recorded some sunny spells though not a lot. Sunday was a very misty and damp day. No sunshine at all.

    25th/26th: Saturday started off with the odd sunny interval then it became rather cloudy before Storm Ewan started showing itself near the Irish shores towards the late night into Sunday. Storm Ewan brought some persistent rain as well as strong winds. Ewan cleared by Lunchtime on Sunday and left sunshine and showers behind it. Mild all the while with temperatures in the 10-12c range generally. Sunshine was only up to 4 hours of sunshine after Storm Ewan cleared so quite a dull weekend again.

    March
    4th/5th: After an exceptionally wet day on the 3rd, the rain pushed into the north on the 4th bringing another 10-15mm of rainfall up there. Sunshine and showers meanwhile elsewhere. Sunshine maximising at 4 hours. Another day of sunshine and showers on the 5th with the rain clearing the north coast. This weekend was a very mixed bag with sunshine totalling at 8 hours overall. Temperatures were at or below average around 7-10c in places.

    11th/12th: Saturday brought some rain across the country with sunshine behind it. Between 4-8 hours of sunshine exactly. Some showers on the 12th but mostly sunny and fine with sunshine again between 4-8 hours of sunshine. Temperatures in the 12-14c range. This was the best weekend up to this point.

    18th/19th: Rain slowly pushed southwards on both days and it was quite drizzly in nature. As a result, it was a very dull weekend with little to no sunshine. Temperatures between 11-13c.

    25th/26th: In stark contrast with the previous weekend, this one was very sunny. Many places had between 10-12 hours of sunshine on both days of this weekend and temperatures up to the high teens. Newport, Co. Mayo got up to 19.2c on the 25th. I'm pretty sure we all remember this beautiful weekend in March don't we? This weekend smashes the previous best weekend out of the park which was two weekends ago (11th/12th). So by the end of this weekend, some places had up to 24 hours of sunshine! If you add in the Friday (24th) to the equation, places were up to 35 hours of sunshine!

    April
    1st/2nd: The 1st brought some rain across the country leaving some sunshine behind it of between 6-7 hours in the west. The 2nd started off fine then got cloudier as the day went on (a sign of what was to come on the 3rd) but it was dry. Temperatures in the 11-14c range so nothing exciting.

    8th/9th: Saturday was a beautiful day with endless blue skies in the majority of places and temperatures in the 15-18c range. Sunday brought a band of very light rain southwards though bringing in a lot of cloud and cooler temperatures. Quite a weekend of two halves.

    15th/16th: Saturday was an alright day with some sunny intervals though mostly cloudy in rather average temperatures. Sunday was a damp and dull day however with some patchy rain in places. Temperatures were just ok in the 11-14c range.

    22nd/23rd: Saturday was a very sunny day in some parts of the west reaching 10 hours of sunshine in places, including Valentia. Sunday was a much duller day though. I guess you're seeing a common theme here with the weekends in April :pac: where Saturday is a good sunny day but Sunday isn't :P. Temperatures were alright around 13-15c.

    29th/30th: Saturday was a mostly dry and cloudy day though some places had sunny intervals at times. Sunday brought some rain to parts though. Temperatures were similarly mediocre to previous weekends in April with 11-14c generally.

    May
    6th/7th: Saturday was a cloudy day generally though some northwestern parts escaped the cloud and enjoyed the continuous blue skies since May began on the Monday before hand. It was also a cooler day in all that persistent cloud. Sunday was a complete change around however with blue skies in many places. Places had temperatures going up to the high teens in the sunshine. Sunshine totals being up to 14 hours on Sunday in parts.

    13th/14th: Saturday was a very wet day in places bringing rainfall totals of over 20mm in parts. As a result, it was quite dull in the rain. Temperatures weren't nothing remarkable. Sunday was a day of sunshine and scattered showers. Sunshine totals reaching 10 hours in places.

    20th/21st: Saturday brought some very heavy showers in places whilst for most places, Sunday was a drier day. Sunny intervals at odd times during both days though Sunday definitely was cloudier despite being drier. Temperatures around the 13-15c range.

    Any "data" related information is gathered from Met Éireann.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Only 16C here, but feeling definitely warmer than that! Really looking forward to 20C+ for the next few days, hopefully we will get the weekend out of it as well. The south-east of the UK looks like it's gonna see at least a 10 day spell of 25C+


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I will do my official Summer 2017 forecast on Tuesday, May 30th and I'm planning it right now.
    You will not be disappointed! I think you all will be delighted with Summer 2017.

    Sorry for the spoiler, I just had to. :P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    just going through sun figures for knock

    in 2017 there has been 70 hours of sun on saturdays
    and 63.7 hours on sundays so not a lot in it

    also theres been (not counting ties) 10 weekends where saturday has been sunnier but 11 where sunday has been.

    So it looks like its all average despite my concerns


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,243 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    In my research I uncovered signals for periodicity at 7.16 and 6.94 days. Those signals take a while to drift off specific days of the week. The 7.16 day signal takes about two months to drift away from a weekend day, and the 6.94 day signal locks into given days of the week for about three months at a time. This may explain why you're seeing patterns of similarity. Note that they move off in opposite directions so there is also a longer term (roughly 400 days) period of these signals mutually reinforcing one another. The signals have a connection to Sun-Jupiter interactions that may also be modulating some parts of solar activity. The signal strength is not overly large, would place it around 1 C deg.

    There are faster-moving (relative to days of week) lunar tidal signals that have a slightly larger amplitude but only stay on the same day of week for about a month, although that keeps them within a weekend for two months.

    However, over the entire period of record of my data sets, the days of the week show almost exactly the same average values (of anomalies) so there is no postulated human caused (activity levels of industrial or transportation) variation by days of the week. I did notice a tendency for Christmas to New Years to run colder than expected in UK data from about 1850 to 1950 which could be correlated with more people at home burning coal in that era (coal smog may have had the opposite effect to greenhouse gases as a background signal in temperatures in the winter months).

    I haven't been into this thread before today so I don't have a full picture of what the group consensus is for summer 2017, evidently you're aware that I see potential for this summer being a relatively warm one. Warm is almost always dry or at least dry enough, I find that a warm summer with average rainfall seems better than a cool summer with below-average rainfall. Probably the rainfall is concentrated enough that it becomes a question of how many hours of rainfall happen in daylight. If you had a summer with 120% rainfall but it all fell at night, nobody would care would they?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    In my research I uncovered signals for periodicity at 7.16 and 6.94 days. Those signals take a while to drift off specific days of the week. The 7.16 day signal takes about two months to drift away from a weekend day, and the 6.94 day signal locks into given days of the week for about three months at a time. This may explain why you're seeing patterns of similarity. Note that they move off in opposite directions so there is also a longer term (roughly 400 days) period of these signals mutually reinforcing one another. The signals have a connection to Sun-Jupiter interactions that may also be modulating some parts of solar activity. The signal strength is not overly large, would place it around 1 C deg.

    There are faster-moving (relative to days of week) lunar tidal signals that have a slightly larger amplitude but only stay on the same day of week for about a month, although that keeps them within a weekend for two months.

    However, over the entire period of record of my data sets, the days of the week show almost exactly the same average values (of anomalies) so there is no postulated human caused (activity levels of industrial or transportation) variation by days of the week. I did notice a tendency for Christmas to New Years to run colder than expected in UK data from about 1850 to 1950 which could be correlated with more people at home burning coal in that era (coal smog may have had the opposite effect to greenhouse gases as a background signal in temperatures in the winter months).

    I haven't been into this thread before today so I don't have a full picture of what the group consensus is for summer 2017, evidently you're aware that I see potential for this summer being a relatively warm one. Warm is almost always dry or at least dry enough, I find that a warm summer with average rainfall seems better than a cool summer with below-average rainfall. Probably the rainfall is concentrated enough that it becomes a question of how many hours of rainfall happen in daylight. If you had a summer with 120% rainfall but it all fell at night, nobody would care would they?

    Yes MT, that theory is correct. For example, December 2010 was the second coldest December in the CET records (going back to 1659) with a CET of -0.5c. Only 1890 was colder with a CET of -0.7c. However, when you look at the data and the Wetterzentrale.de charts for December 1890, December 1890 wasn't even that impressively cold. This was down to the smog - as you mentioned and if it weren't for the smog, I think December 2010 would smash December 1890 out of the park so December 2010 was truly more remarkably cold than December 1890 despite the CET for December 1890 being colder. I don't mean to go off topic with the thread here. Just that MT mentioned that and I wanted to give off what I had to say about it.

    As for the 120% rainfall falling at night, yeah I wouldn't care haha. I agree with a Summer having average rainfall and warm temperatures is better than a Summer with cool temperatures and below average rainfall (see a recent post of mine in this thread where I talk about a culprit of such a Summer experience a.k.a. 1981).


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    pauldry wrote: »
    just going through sun figures for knock

    in 2017 there has been 70 hours of sun on saturdays
    and 63.7 hours on sundays so not a lot in it

    also theres been (not counting ties) 10 weekends where saturday has been sunnier but 11 where sunday has been.

    So it looks like its all average despite my concerns

    That always happens Pauldry with a lot of things weather wise. You think it's much wetter than what it actually was, you think it's much sunnier than what it actually was, you think it's much warmer than what it actually was etc. Statistics don't tell you everything though! Statistics don't show your personal experience of the day. So your theory might have been correct even though the statistics don't show that. ;)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    warmer air reaching here now, 19C after being 16C for most of the day.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    could we see some thunderstorm activity this weekend??? with the high temperatures and percipitation moving up from the south...

    ukstormrisk.png

    ukcapeli.png

    ukprec.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Heard briefly a weather report that another high pressure system is heading towards ireland for the last week of may.
    Get the lotion lads!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    No a more cool showery regime after this spell for about 7 days then we wait and see


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    so far this spell has been dissapointing, very little sun. very grey and gloomy today, yesterday was mostly cloudy as well and not as warm as predicted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    so far this spell has been dissapointing, very little sun. very grey and gloomy today, yesterday was mostly cloudy as well and not as warm as predicted.

    I hope you're just speaking about your own area about yesterday's warmth because it was freaking sweltering here. Temperatures nearly reached 23c here and the minimum temperatures did not get below 14c. It was so hard to sleep last night.

    And with the kind of setup, you should not be surprised with the lack of sun. This is a very "Summer 2016" setup where the humidity is high and low pressure is to the northwest of the country into the Atlantic bringing winds up from the southwest. Tomorrow should be much sunnier as the winds turn more to a southerly than a southwesterly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,479 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    We will be lucky to get one day of sun out of this the way things are going thursday seems like our only hope now:pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 48,123 ✭✭✭✭km79


    No sun in east Galway for last 2 days
    Dull and gloomy
    But disappointing
    But it's dry and I don't want use to use up our quota of sunny days yet :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,462 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    km79 wrote: »
    No sun in east Galway for last 2 days
    Dull and gloomy
    But disappointing
    But it's dry and I don't want use to use up our quota of sunny days yet :D

    Yes, save them for the Summer!


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    pauldry wrote: »
    No a more cool showery regime after this spell for about 7 days then we wait and see

    Well... balls.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,813 ✭✭✭pauldry


    but dont fear

    im fairly confident we will get a few mini heatwaves this summer

    Atlantic is much quiter than usual all year allowing Highs to come ....and of course go:P


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭mcgiggles


    Warm as balls in NW yesterday, not particularly sunny for a lot of the day but very humid. 15.5 degrees leaving work at midnight last night! Dull and grey today but dry so far


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,806 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    pauldry wrote: »
    but dont fear

    im fairly confident we will get a few mini heatwaves this summer

    Atlantic is much quiter than usual all year allowing Highs to come ....and of course go:P

    yeah just I'm in Ireland the next weekend for my 30th and was delighted that there'd be warm weather.
    C'est la vie :pac:


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    I hope you're just speaking about your own area about yesterday's warmth because it was freaking sweltering here. Temperatures nearly reached 23c here and the minimum temperatures did not get below 14c. It was so hard to sleep last night.

    And with the kind of setup, you should not be surprised with the lack of sun. This is a very "Summer 2016" setup where the humidity is high and low pressure is to the northwest of the country into the Atlantic bringing winds up from the southwest. Tomorrow should be much sunnier as the winds turn more to a southerly than a southwesterly.

    yesterday started off promising, reached 20C by noon but then went completely cloudy for the rest of the day and temps fell back to 18C for most of the afternoon.

    Today is more humid but very cloudy and 19C. Was in Blanchardstown earlier and looks like Dublin city and county is fairing much better with spells of very warm sunshine. Still wall to wall cloud here. There is signs that we might see the cloud thinning later hopefully.

    This is why I'm dissapointed, very little sun and temps here definitely not reaching the high values of other more sunnier spots.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,047 ✭✭✭Clonmel1000


    Anyone seen the Irish independent? I'm unable to link articles but the way there reporting the weather is that the whole country is and will be bathed in hot temperatures and sunshine for the foreseeable. It's ridiculous.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Anyone seen the Irish independent? I'm unable to link articles but the way there reporting the weather is that the whole country is and will be bathed in hot temperatures and sunshine for the foreseeable. It's ridiculous.

    yep complete lies. This Saturday will be a washout in most places and Sunday will be mild and showery. Next week is now looking more average with mid to high teen temps.

    Sun has finally made an appearance here and is very pleasant now. Make the most of the good weather between now and Friday evening.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Sun breaking through the cloud now here in castlebar, warming up nicely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Gonzo wrote: »
    Sun has finally made an appearance here and is very pleasant now.

    Send it a little bit further north would ya, still cloudy here


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    Mini heat wave has turned into a mini heat day,if we are lucky,vile conditions here on the coast in mayo,low cloud,mist and drizzle constantly impinging on the coastline,cool breeze and no notion of it being warm and humid,scraps of blue sky over towards westport,breaks down with showers on friday and heavy rain saturday,heralding a return to cool and showery conditions to herald the begining of June,all in all a major disapointment.Also noticed that MT's forecast of temperatures of 25 from sunday onwards has vapourised from his forecast this morning sadly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,235 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Very disappointing today - no sun in Cork anyway :( It is quite mild though so we'll take that I guess :pac: Hoping for some sun tomorrow.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,641 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Met Eireann now going for a breakdown on Friday morning with rain almost everywhere by the late evening. Looks like make the most of tomorrow.


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