AUTUMN WEATHER 2015 - GENERAL CHAT THREAD

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 5:45pm

Some furious gusts here in west clare atm.

joujoujou · 14-11-2015 6:03pm

Despite today's 28mm of rain, barbecue done.

maquiladora · 14-11-2015 6:06pm

joujoujou wrote: »

Despite today's 28mm of rain, barbecue done.

joujoujou · 14-11-2015 6:08pm

maquiladora wrote: »

[photo]

Yeah, pretty similar, just garden parasol instead. :cool:

And having wellies on.

ronnie3585 · 14-11-2015 6:17pm

Torrential rain in Galway City today, has gotten worse as the day went along. Lots of roads flooded. A cruel day.

Storm 10 · 14-11-2015 6:28pm

Unreal day in Galway ok today monsoon conditions, Rescue 118 from Sligo landed at UHG in terrible conditions it's still there and looking at the radar could be here for a while yet, these guys are just brilliant at what they do bringing in patients for life saving treatment .

maquiladora · 14-11-2015 7:14pm

Southerly tracking low, Tuesday on the 12Z ECM.

Hooter23 · 14-11-2015 7:28pm

Gusts getting stronger in Galway with that persistent rain

Clonmel1000 · 14-11-2015 7:30pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

So snow from the 21st? Typical! Will probably miss it all

Calm down very early to be predicting that turn of events.

Reckless Abandonment · 14-11-2015 7:38pm

Looking cold this day week

Reckless Abandonment · 14-11-2015 7:39pm

Looking cold this day week

ninebeanrows · 14-11-2015 7:39pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Southerly tracking low, Tuesday on the 12Z ECM.

That's a naughty low indeed!

maquiladora · 14-11-2015 7:44pm

12Z ECM looks cold next weekend though probably mostly dry.

corsav6 · 14-11-2015 7:47pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Newport way out in front in terms of rainfall totals on the 1500 reports, 11.0 mm's, knock airport and belmullet following

Its been non stop rain here in Newport, and now the wind has stepped up a notch.
The Castlebar to Newport road is completely flooded in one section about 6 miles from Castlebar, water level is above the bottom of the car.

ninebeanrows · 14-11-2015 7:49pm

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM looks cold next weekend though probably mostly dry.

East coast thunderstorms comes to mind on the 168 and 192hr charts. Thunder, hail, sleet, even some snow.. especially on higher ground.

Interesting time ahead... finally some active weather!

NMB · 14-11-2015 8:03pm

ohhhh thundersnow oh please let it be Thundersnow !

sryanbruen · 14-11-2015 8:10pm

Here's my report on the week coming and the cold spell:

Firstly, exceptionally heavy rainfall up to Wednesday with brief drier moments Monday morning and early afternoon as well as Tuesday night / Wednesday morning. Thursday has some rain to the south but otherwise mainly dry and sunny and average temperatures. On Friday, a low will sink southwards but it will grind to a halt in the east of the UK along with the direction of the wind coming from the ARCTIC. Yes I said it, the ARCTIC!!!!! This cold spell does look like lasting some time into the end of November and might be even here at the start of December! That is 20% chance certain though at this stage - so very uncertain. We are 100% in for a cold spell, however and snowfall has a 60% chance to hit at least some parts of Ireland during this said cold spell! Enjoy the last of the mild weather for a while during the rain on Sunday

. My expected temperatures:

Sunday 15th - 15c
Monday 16th - 9c
Tuesday 17th - 11c
Wednesday 18th - 11c
Thursday 19th - 9c
Friday 20th - 8c
Saturday 21st - 6c!

Padster90s · 14-11-2015 8:16pm

Surprised there isn't a wind warning, it's fairly windy and my phone (accuweather) is saying very windy tonight. It didn't say anything like that Thursday for Abigail.

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 8:20pm

Padster90s wrote: »

Surprised there isn't a wind warning, it's fairly windy and my phone (accuweather) is saying very windy tonight. It didn't say anything like that Thursday for Abigail.

Shannon recorded winds with mean speeds of 33kts (61km/h) just short of an orange warning. I'm extremely surprised.

sryanbruen · 14-11-2015 8:21pm

When do you think the next named storm will be?

Padster90s · 14-11-2015 8:28pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Shannon recorded winds with mean speeds of 33kts (61km/h) just short of an orange warning. I'm extremely surprised.

There are 4 rainfall warnings out on the website. Maybe a 5th for wind is to much! The ground is waterlogged and nearly half the trees around me are still in some form of leaf. It wouldn't take much wind to bring them down.
Just a wild guess but next named storm I'd say say the week between Christmas and new year's.

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 8:32pm

Padster90s wrote: »

There are 4 rainfall warnings out on the website. Maybe a 5th for wind is to much! The ground is waterlogged and nearly half the trees around me are still in some form of leaf. It wouldn't take much wind to bring them down.
Just a wild guess but next named storm I'd say say the week between Christmas and new year's.

You can't exactly say, oh there's enough warnings out already we don't need another for a different weather element! Also only 3 of those warnings seem to be valid, the other one just copies another one with the exception of having no location and the lack of 1 word which in turn makes it grammatically incorrect.

Padster90s · 14-11-2015 8:38pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

You can't exactly say, oh there's enough warnings out already we don't need another for a different weather element! Also only 3 of those warnings seem to be valid, the other one just copies another one with the exception of having no location and the lack of 1 word which in turn makes it grammatically incorrect.

I agree, one of them looks like they forgot to remove it, just says Rainfall warning. Theres only two warnings really. The orange one and the yellow. The two yellow rainfall warnings could be made into one. I didn't mean there's too many and shouldn't be a fifth. I just don't know why they haven't a wind warning! The sustained wind and the gusts out this evening seem worse or more prolonged than Thursday and they had a warning. Maybe one will appear for the nine news.

squarecircles · 14-11-2015 8:51pm

Wind gusts wednesday

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 9:05pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Wind gusts wednesday

84mph in mayo!!!? 135km/h! Thats red level warning material!

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 9:06pm

Looking at this the temps dont look that low Saturday 21st.

Rock Lesnar · 14-11-2015 9:18pm

Water from the field has come in around the house, 1st time ever, drainage pipes around the place cant take the volume of water coming in, unbelievable

Oscar Bravo · 14-11-2015 9:20pm

A stormy wet night in Castlebar, the heavy persistent rain continues....

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 9:24pm

Wind in west Clare is stronger than (or rivaling) the recent storm Abigail

Oscar Bravo · 14-11-2015 9:25pm

agree with you there, likewise up along the coast in Mayo! worst night in a while

Storm 10 · 14-11-2015 9:35pm

Terrible night in Galway serious flooding on some roads non stop rain since around 6 am this morning, gone very windy I did not expect the wind to be so strong it's a strong as Abigil

ronnie3585 · 14-11-2015 9:38pm

Unbelievable day of wind and rain in Galway city today. Been up since 4am and it hasn't let up for one minute.

maquiladora · 14-11-2015 10:15pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Looking at this the temps dont look that low Saturday 21st.

GFS is showing temperatures of around 0 - 4 there.

Padster90s · 14-11-2015 10:30pm

Met.ie have cleaned up the warnings but still nothing for wind. It seems to have stepped up a notch too in the past hour

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 10:34pm

Misread it so.

Look at this chart:

Iancar29 · 14-11-2015 10:35pm

Padster90s wrote: »

Met.ie have cleaned up the warnings but still nothing for wind. It seems to have stepped up a notch too in the past hour

Here it is.

STATUS YELLOW

Gale Warning
Southwest winds will continue to reach gale force overnight on Irish coastal waters from Howth Head to Roches Point to Malin Head and on the north Irish Sea.

Issued:Saturday 14 November 2015 17:00

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 10:38pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Here it is.

Thats a coastal wind warning for ships etc. Not a land warning.

maquiladora · 14-11-2015 10:40pm

A windy, maybe stormy, week ahead from possibly two lows.

Rikand · 14-11-2015 10:45pm

Lights flickering regularly in athlone. Tis wild out there

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 10:57pm

Thought the wind was finally about to die down, but no! Just got a gust that lasted 10 seconds here and I sware I thought the roof was about to come away from the house!

Metmaster · 14-11-2015 11:22pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Misread it so.

Look at this chart:

Thats showing -4"

Mech1 · 14-11-2015 11:22pm

Rough enough now in D16.

Metmaster · 14-11-2015 11:27pm

Looks like were in for a serious cold snap starting on the 21st.

omicron · 14-11-2015 11:28pm

Metmaster wrote: »

Cant fault it and it looks like you could be right the way things are going. I would go as far to say if the arctic air does come in the chance of widespread snow is inevitable.

Arctic air in mid November will probably result in cold rain for most of the country with sleet or snow on high ground in the north. " inevitable widespread snow" is not even close to being hinted at on any current charts.

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 11:29pm

Mech1 wrote: »

Rough enough now in D16.

Dublin airport has 30kts (55.5km/h) with gusts of 42kts.

Now 33kts!

Hooter23 · 14-11-2015 11:29pm

Alot windier than expected in Galway at this time

maquiladora · 14-11-2015 11:32pm

This is why Fantasy Island is called Fantasy Island and why you cannot look at a chart that is a week in advance and say "this is definitely going to happen".

Here was the 0Z GFS this morning showing a lovely ridge up to Greenland with a chance of a Greenland High developing :

And the exact same timeframe on the 18Z GFS this evening. Flattened. :

Regardless of what happens later in the run, that just shows the huge differences you can get even on the same day, so who knows how different this will all look in 2 or 3 days from now. But that's what makes model watching fun.

JCX BXC · 14-11-2015 11:32pm

What about further into Europe, what are the chances of a widespread snow event there?

Mech1 · 14-11-2015 11:33pm

Carnacalla wrote: »

Dublin airport has 30kts (55.5km/h) with gusts of 42kts.

I will broadcast the various current ATIS freqs shortly.

Listen in here, first feed on the page. http://www.liveatc.net/search/?icao=eidw

Mech1 · 14-11-2015 11:37pm

its a bit too busy atm to broadcast ATIS, will do when arrivals quieten down a bit.

AUTUMN WEATHER 2015 - GENERAL CHAT THREAD

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