Match Thread: Ireland v Wales [2.30pm 29/08/15 Aviva Stadium] Guinness Series

Our twenty year unbeaten run in Cardiff; the sacking of Gatland; the dropping of the Lion King, BOD Almighty; the scuppering of our Grandslam in Cardiff this year; those five minutes where they seemed to want out of the Pro 12; Rhys Ruddock; Rhys Ruddock's dad.

Yes friends, the long and storied rugby histories of our two nations have frequently intersected to produce many dramatic and memorable moments. But while the tension of 2009's Grandslam showdown in Cardiff will, for many, be remembered as a seminal episode in the saga of Irish-Welsh football, the emotions its recalling stir surely pale in comparison to the passions evoked by another sporting product of our two proud nations:



Born to Irish parents but raised in Wales, Connacht scrum-half, Kieran Marmion, found himself to be the almost sole focus of this week's pre-match speculation. With all the fervour of Moon Landing conspiracy theorists, Marmion's supporters and detractors combed through what seeming evidence could be pieced together to elucidate their theories on who would occupy the doubtlessly crucial berths of Ireland's third and fourth choice number 9 upon the naming of our World Cup Squad. With neither appearing in this week's 23, it would seem that the question is settled, with the veteran from the land of the long white cloud surely now set to claim a seat on the plane in Marmion's stead.

The Teams
Ireland
15. Rob Kearney (UCD/Leinster)
14. Dave Kearney (Lansdowne/Leinster)
13. Luke Fitzgerald (Blackrock College/Leinster)
12. Robbie Henshaw (Buccaneers/Connacht)
11. Keith Earls (Young Munster/Munster)
10. Jonathan Sexton (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
9. Conor Murray (Garryowen/Munster)
1. Jack McGrath (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
2. Richardt Strauss (Old Wesley/Leinster)
3. Nathan White (Connacht)
4. Iain Henderson (Ballynahinch/Ulster)
5. Paul O'Connell (Young Munster/Munster) (capt)
6. Peter O'Mahony (Cork Constitution/Munster)
7. Jordi Murphy (Lansdowne/Leinster)
8. Jamie Heaslip (Dublin University/Leinster)

Replacements:
16. Sean Cronin (St. Mary's College/Leinster)
17. Dave Kilcoyne (UL Bohemians/Munster)
18. Tadhg Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster) *
19. Donnacha Ryan (Shannon/Munster)
20. Sean O'Brien (UCD/Leinster)
21. Eoin Reddan (Old Crescent/Leinster)
22. Paddy Jackson (Dungannon/Ulster)
23. Felix Jones (Shannon/Munster)
* Denotes uncapped player

Wales
15. Leigh Halfpenny (Toulon)
14. Alex Cuthbert (Cardiff Blues)
13. Scott Williams (Scarlets)
12. Jamie Roberts (Harlequins)
11. George North (Northampton Saints)
10. Dan Biggar (Ospreys)
9. Rhys Webb (Ospreys)
1. Gethin Jenkins (Cardiff Blues)
2. Ken Owens (Scarlets)
3. Tomas Francis (Exeter Chiefs)*
4. Bradley Davies (Wasps)
5. Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys) (capt)
6. Dan Lydiate (Ospreys)
7. Justin Tipuric (Ospreys)
8. Taulupe Faletau (Newport Gwent Dragons)

Replacements:
16. Scott Baldwin (Ospreys)
17. Paul James (Ospreys)
18. Aaron Jarvis (Ospreys)
19. Luke Charteris (Racing 92)
20. James King (Ospreys)
21. Gareth Davies (Scarlets)
22. Rhys Priestland (Scarlets)
23. Hallam Amos (Newport Gwent Dragons)


The Key Battlegrounds
It is reasonable to infer from the teams named that both coaches have somewhat differing objectives for this match. Having shipped some understandable criticism following Wales's languid performance against Ireland three weeks ago, Gatland has named as strong a team as possible, ostensibly with the hope of snatching a win and building momentum before the final selection of his World Cup Squad. Schmidt, on the other hand, has chosen to rest a number of his usual starters in favour of offering an opportunity to impress to many of those who face stiff competition to win their place in the final squad. A typically hard-running Wales, anxious get their campaign onto the front foot, will prove a serious defensive test for the Irish backs, whose performance will surely be scrutinised most intensely, considering the limited squad places available to the numerous contenders in this area.

The Front Row
In White and Furlong Ireland have named what hitherto may have been considered our third and fourth choice tight-head props. Against Gethin Jenkins, an able scrummager, White will be tested. Indeed should White get the better of Jenkins at scrum time and deliver a strong display, his possibility of inclusion in the World Cup Squad will move to a probability. Furlong will benefit from the experience of inclusion in this game, and his naming at number 18 speaks to the potential the Irish management sees in the young man. Elsewhere Exeter's Tomas Francis has been chosen as Wales's tight-head. Though a promising player, he is newcomer to the international stage, and McGrath must seek to exploit Francis's inexperience to create Irish dominance in the set piece.

The Second Row
It will be an emotional farewell to one of the very few rugby players of the modern age deserving of the term "legendary" as Paul O'Connell lines out for the last time at Lansdowne Road for Ireland. With a career that has spanned some thirteen years of glorious service in the green jersey, he will say goodbye to his home supporters facing the same side against which he won his first cap. He scored a fine try on that day, way back in 2002, and it would be a fitting finish to his international service on Irish soil if he were to nab one here. Regardless, he will be given the loudest ovation the Aviva can muster on Saturday, deserving of every decibel of applause. Oh yeah, and there'll probably be three other lesser men playing in the second row too, but it hardly seems worth mentioning.

The Back Row
With Big Sam not being risked for this one, Tipuric takes his place in what is otherwise the same Welsh backrow we have come to expect from Gatland. Lydiate will be asked to tackle everything around him and Faletau will be expected to do his best impression of a freight train carrying a rugby ball. They have their match in O'Mahony, Murphy, and Heaslip, but it is perhaps the breakdown battle between Tipuric and Murphy that will prove the most interesting. Tipuric could hardly be accused of being the most physically imposing openside in the game, but has plenty of guile and skill to compensate. If Murphy can gain the upper hand and slow Welsh ball, while expediting our own, Wales will have a tough day at the office.

Half Back
For perhaps the first time in many many years Ireland possess a 9 and a 10 of truly world class quality. Webb and Biggar are fine players, with Webb in particular becoming renowned for his eye for a gap, but it would be hard to argue that Ireland have anything but the upper hand in this department.

Centre
Here Ireland have put together an as-of-yet untested combination in Henshaw and Fitzgerald. Most often utilised as a winger by Joe, Fitz's switch to 13 for this game appears a somewhat unusual move. With limited places available in the World Cup Squad for backs, versatility is key, and Fitzgerald may be in direct competition with Keith Earls for a single spot. Given Earls's Man-of-the-Match winning performance in Cardiff during these teams' last outing, and Fitzgerald's mixed display against Scotland, the Leinster man may need to show more of the incisive play that saw him become the youngest player to be capped for Ireland in nearly thirty years, to book his plane ticket. Facing Roberts and Williams, he and Henshaw will be punished for giving space to a pairing that are perhaps more creative than they are given credit for.

Outside Backs
Earls is awarded the opportunity to build on his performance three weeks ago and convince our Kiwi coach of his merits. Many consider the wing to be Earls's most natural position, and his try scoring record here speaks for itself. Defending the barreling runs of Cuthbert, Earls has a platform to show he is well capable of felling large targets on the international stage and, given Cuthbert's reputation as having something akin to the turning circle of an oil tanker, Earls may well get some joy on his wing by exposing his opposing number's defensive frailties. On the other side of the pitch Dave Kearney makes his first start in an Irish jersey in these warm up games. Rumours have abounded of Dave's scintillating displays in training, and certainly his energy and sharpness against Scotland were a refreshing injection when he was introduced in the latter stages of that game. Many believe Dave's inclusion in the final squad to be unlikely, but we know Joe to be a fan of his, and a strong performance could given him the edge over his rivals. Elsewhere Halfpenny will probably be awesome, North will hope to make a positive impact following his extended absence after a string of concussions, and Rob Kearney will deliver a strong performance that will later be bemoaned as "average".

Replacements
Cronin, Kilcoyne, and O'Brien can offer a dangerous running threat off the bench, Ryan can successfully trigger a standing ovation for Paulie, and Furlong will get the last few minutes.

Final Thoughts
With players fighting for squad places, and both teams keen to gain some momentum leading into their World Cup campaigns, the stage is set for a dramatic afternoon of rugby football. Though likely to be a tight affair, with the home crowd and Paulie's final hurrah in Dublin to inspire them I, like the bookies, predict a narrow Irish win.

Watch the match on Sky Sports 1, or if you dislike Murdoch's media empire, tune into the dulcet tones of RTÉ Radio 1. Or alternatively just go to the game. I mean, there are still tickets.