COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

FWVT · 27-01-2015 12:33am

ECM CAPE, thickness and 850 hPa temp at 00Z Thursday. No energy to sustain the showers inland.

ecm0125_millikort_msl_cape_gh1000-500_t850_2015012600_060.png

ecm0125_millikort_msl_cape_gh1000-500_t850_2015012600_060.png

delw · 27-01-2015 12:40am

The voice of reason as always SC,without it from the likes of yourself,Maq & others this place would be in mayhem

maquiladora · 27-01-2015 12:51am

Pangea wrote: »

What sort of depths are we looking at for the North West? I see DWC saying up to thirty cms, seems a bit ambitious.

Probably around 5-10cm. A bit more on hills.

tylercollins · 27-01-2015 1:02am

I guess I'm in a good location then for all this snow :P

Easterly Beasterly · 27-01-2015 1:09am

@FWVT

can't post links but the Euro4 Hi Res for Wednesday night shows quite a bit of snow, particularly for the northern half of the country so one of them is going to be wrong.

RED L4 0TH · 27-01-2015 1:27am

Looking at the GFS & Euro4, the DP's appear to go over the edge of a cliff from around 6am Wednesday. On the Euro4 they are +2 to +4 in the West at 3am, then are -4 at 6am.

Rougies · 27-01-2015 1:38am

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

@FWVT

can't post links but the Euro4 Hi Res for Wednesday night shows quite a bit of snow, particularly for the northern half of the country so one of them is going to be wrong.

I'm not sure if you know, but FWVT's chart is not a precip. chart.

Easterly Beasterly · 27-01-2015 1:55am

Rougies wrote: »

I'm not sure if you know, but FWVT's chart is not a precip. chart.

well that would explain the difference. I learn so much from this forum!

Super-Rush · 27-01-2015 1:59am

Seems like its hit or miss with the outlooks for the East of the country. Everyone is predicting precip but the temperature values are varying from sub zero to +5. Also Wednesday is favourable with some, while Thursday with others.

Nowcasting will be the way to go for the Eastern side. This thread will be invaluable as have all the other threads. I better stock up on Tassimo pods and Mountain Dew, i see a few late, late nights coming up this week.

Nabber · 27-01-2015 2:30am

I'm looking forward to see how this breaks down. Prehaps some snow for the east when the direction canges from NW to N to maybe a slight NE. With a small trough in the Irish see.

Definitely a lot of model watching ahead.

Redsunset · 27-01-2015 3:28am

I still feel that showers will cross the country in that brisk wind before they die out like what Euro4 shows. We'll see.
A few folk are going to need shovels. Mountainy man I hope your prepared.

Joe Doe · 27-01-2015 3:42am

Snow risk map says almost 100% chance, right from early with most of the island experiencing snow at rush hour Wed am 09:00+.
(06:00 if up in the NW). // All apart from extreme S/SE coasts.

Take care on the roads!. Maybe pack a flask, blanket, torch, shovel etc, or call it a 'duvet/remote day'.

Rougies · 27-01-2015 4:59am

Joe Doe wrote: »

Snow risk map says almost 100% chance, right from early with most of the island experiencing snow at rush hour Wed am 09:00+.
(06:00 if up in the NW). // All apart from extreme S/SE coasts.

Take care on the roads!. Maybe pack a flask, blanket, torch, shovel etc, or call it a 'duvet/remote day'.

These netweather "snow risk" maps are misleading at best. They are tabloid-style charts and are pretty worthless for forecasting. That's all I'm saying, not trying to downramp or upramp or sideramp. Just be careful that's all (they may be complete crap, but that's a maybe)

EDIT: latest hirlam showing a decent trough moving south over the country early Thurs morning. Could be interesting.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2015 6:59am

Morning everyone! *yawn*

On track. Euro 4 tomorrow midnight - only indicative

Cold continues until at least Monday on current projections. Snow at times especially in the north.

kmoneill · 27-01-2015 7:22am

Is there a good chance of snow for kerry in the next few days..

Graces7 · 27-01-2015 7:25am

mountainy man wrote: »

Got my food supplies in today, going to nip over the mountain to Arigna to get coal tomorrow then it can do whatever the *@#k it wants then. I have brought my shovel indoors, It should be interesting. The very last of the previous snow disapeared this morning, it was from the roof avalanche and had frozen hard on the ground.

lol... heading out myself shortly to get coal more than anything else as food stocks are still good...I remember Arigna for coal way back. Will come back via the high lands near Carrantouill to see what is left up there. Then hunkering down in case. Have raised the coal to two 40 kg sacks.. all I can afford. Kind ll finally brought me many bags of logs after the last blast. Payment for secretarial work. Barter!

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2015 7:25am

kmoneill wrote: »

Is there a good chance of snow for kerry in the next few days..

At low levels the southwest is much more marginal than the rest of the country. Depends on your ASL really (Altitude above sea level). Any kind of height and it's highly likely you will get snow.

Graces7 · 27-01-2015 7:28am

maquiladora wrote: »

Thats just for that particular hour. Plenty of snow showers over Donegal before then.

Still giving thanks I moved south!

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2015 7:29am

Graces7 wrote: »

lol... heading out myself shortly to get coal more than anything else as food stocks are still good..

What is your ASL Graces7, or do you know? If at sea level it's really not needed to get supplies. I hope some don't panic - there is nothing all that bad going to occur - and I, or we, don't want to give that impression. If you are in the southwest the snow level will be higher regardless.

Graces7 · 27-01-2015 7:30am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

At low levels the southwest is much more marginal than the rest of the country. Depends on your ASL really (Altitude above sea level). Any kind of height and it's highly likely you will get snow.

OK; all will be ready here by afternoon, around 400 ft asl although the usual pattern is that I get a wonderful view from the kitchen sink but no real disruption. Whatever. we are ready...or will be later! Not going anywhere after today for at least a week

Graces7 · 27-01-2015 7:35am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

What is your ASL Graces7, or do you know? If at sea level it's really not needed to get supplies. I hope some don't panic - there is nothing all that bad going to occur - and I, or we, don't want to give that impression.

Around 400 asl.. and please be sure I am not panicking or worried. I am a mile down a very shonky private lane and even an inch of snow would isolate. Also disabled so am always well stocked. Sometimes not well enough for out for days and i have critters to feed. Today is for coal mostly as no one delivers up here. And fun! Want to see what Carrantouill is like still. Then I can sit back and watch! I think most of us rural dwellers keep well stocked . I was ten years on a tiny island and learned good habits.

Graces7 · 27-01-2015 7:37am

Tomorrow.. met ie

Tomorrow, Wednesday, will be cold and windy with wintry showers in the north and west at first, becoming widespread over the country later, leading to accumulations of snow, especially over hills and mountains of the west and north. Temperatures will be 3 or 4 degrees at best during the afternoon but only 1 or 2 degrees in the north of the country. Westerly winds will be fresh to strong and gusty and gale force at sea.

Regional forecast not up yet.

JanuarySnowstor · 27-01-2015 7:40am

The charts have swung back overnight to a shorter cold spell.
Fizzling by Tuesday as proper heights fail to nudge north.
Our old friend the azores is lurking

Ecm is vile long term

munsterlegend · 27-01-2015 7:50am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The charts have swung back overnight to a shorter cold spell.
Fizzling by Tuesday as proper heights fail to nudge north.
Our old friend the azores is lurking

Ecm is vile long term

How is it looking in the short term? Are cork snow chances as marginal as ever?

Graces7 · 27-01-2015 7:53am

Munster met ie Tomorrow

Tomorrow, Wednesday, will be cold with wintry showers. Temperatures will be between 3 and 5 degrees at best and winds will be fresh to strong and gusty, reaching gale force at times along exposed western coasts. Wintry showers will bring accumulations of snow, especially over hills and mountains.

JanuarySnowstor · 27-01-2015 7:54am

munsterlegend wrote: »

How is it looking in the short term? Are cork snow chances as marginal as ever?

The short term for cork is looking fine
Snow arrives a bit later.....looking like we'd night now. With a bit of luck could lay for a few days..
dangerous roads throughout at night.

kmoneill · 27-01-2015 7:56am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

At low levels the southwest is much more marginal than the rest of the country. Depends on your ASL really (Altitude above sea level). Any kind of height and it's highly likely you will get snow.

Thanks .im 170 metres above sea level..

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2015 8:05am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The charts have swung back overnight to a shorter cold spell.
Fizzling by Tuesday as proper heights fail to nudge north.
Our old friend the azores is lurking

Ecm is vile long term

One chart - 120 hrs in a brisk northerly

ECM0-120.GIF?27-12

I wouldn't take post this very seriously atm. There is more than a hint of developments that may prolong this but it's not determined yet. Just don't take it too seriously long term for now.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-01-2015 8:11am

kmoneill wrote: »

Thanks .im 170 metres above sea level..

It's going to snow.

The Peanut · 27-01-2015 8:13am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The short term for cork is looking fine
Snow arrives a bit later.....looking like we'd night now. With a bit of luck could lay for a few days..
dangerous roads throughout at night.

Hi. Sorry for dragging up the old boring Cork questions again but since Cork is such a big county...

Kids are driving me mad as all their cousins up the country have had snow; what's the likelihood of West Cork, about 10 miles inland from Clonakilty. I know that's quite specific but is it mainly further north in the county that will do well? I'm really trying to play down expectations.

Great job everyone btw. Great reading.

Graces7 · 27-01-2015 8:14am

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's going to snow.

On which note I will hit the road before it does just that

JanuarySnowstor · 27-01-2015 8:17am

The Peanut wrote: »

Hi. Sorry for dragging up the old boring Cork questions again but since Cork is such a big county...

Kids are driving me mad as all their cousins up the country have had snow; what's the likelihood of West Cork, about 10 miles inland from Clonakilty. I know that's quite specific but is it mainly further north in the county that will do well? I'm really trying to play down expectations.

Great job everyone btw. Great reading.

Chances increase as we go through Wed.
I would think early Thursday morning will surely have snow in your location

munsterlegend · 27-01-2015 8:22am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Chances increase as we go through Wed.
I would think early Thursday morning will surely have snow in your location

Looking at latest Hirlam we should be fine for precipitation. Are temps and dps going to be ok?

Super-Rush · 27-01-2015 8:47am

Well MT's forecast knocks any predictions out of the park for the East at least.

legomaniac · 27-01-2015 8:52am

A very ordinary forecast there from MT. No alerts. No talk of several cms of snow etc. I think yet again many many people including myself will be disappointed. When MT uses the phrase melting snow by the coast, I know it's game over. Ah well at least I will get my trees planted this week.

AnotherYear · 27-01-2015 9:10am

legomaniac wrote: »

A very ordinary forecast there from MT. No alerts. No talk of several cms of snow etc. I think yet again many many people including myself will be disappointed. When MT uses the phrase melting snow by the coast, I know it's game over. Ah well at least I will get my trees planted this week.

MT forecast hasn't changed leg. It was the same yesterday. He thinks Snow will melt except for higher terrain in the North while the met office fc 5-10cm even for lower ground in northern ireland . Let's set what the Irish met think of it later before you go planting trees.

I think the met.ie may release an amber warning for Donegal later. Mt Didn't really back the snow a few weeks ago either when parts of Donegal got in excess of 20cm. 16cm with me. I think he gave 1-3cm so all is not lost

force eleven · 27-01-2015 9:17am

The Azores High is killing this winter. It's the schoolyard bully this year, butting in when it is least wanted, extending it's reach well beyond the Azores. Fine in July, bring it on, but in January, for coldies, no thanks.

It retreats a bit to allow this short sharp cold snap, then back again.

munsterlegend · 27-01-2015 9:23am

Met Eireann have their warning up. wouldn't be surprised if this went orange for Donegal and up the north west by tomorrow with yellow for elsewhere.

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland

Wintry showers will bring snow accumulations of up to 3 cm at lower levels during Wednesday and through Thursday, all areas at risk. Showers will be most frequent in the west and north and over hills and mountains with higher accumulations expected there.
Issued:
Tuesday 27 January 2015 07:00
Valid:
Wednesday 28 January 2015 06:00 to Thursday 29 January 2015 23:00

Speak Now · 27-01-2015 9:27am

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The charts have swung back overnight to a shorter cold spell.
Fizzling by Tuesday as proper heights fail to nudge north.
Our old friend the azores is lurking

Ecm is vile long term

All FI stuff as it always was, Wednesday/Thursday still as is for west and North. Everyone else just sticking their tongue out in hope

JCX BXC · 27-01-2015 9:29am

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

All FI stuff as it always was, Wednesday/Thursday still as is for west and North. Everyone else just sticking their tongue out in hope

Considering the weather warning is valid for all parts of the country, I'm inclined to disagree.
Don't get you hope up if your away from the west and north coast tho.

munsterlegend · 27-01-2015 9:32am

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

All FI stuff as it always was, Wednesday/Thursday still as is for west and North. Everyone else just sticking their tongue out in hope

the Met Eireann forecast see showers as fairly widespread. the west and north will certainly do well but other areas could as well. anyway it will be radar watching from tomorrow evening on no matter what happens today.

vicwatson · 27-01-2015 9:34am

Oh to be in Boston or New York, now thats real snow.

JCX BXC · 27-01-2015 9:36am

vicwatson wrote: »

Oh to be in Boston or New York, now thats real snow.

Dream stuff. I don't know if the Irish could handle it

munsterlegend · 27-01-2015 9:41am

Carnacalla wrote: »

Dream stuff. I don't know if the Irish could handle it

yeah we'd be in an awful way and completely under prepared. I want snow but a few cm's will do.

maquiladora · 27-01-2015 9:45am

Looking at the HIRLAM, the northwest and parts of the west could see up to around 10cm by Wednesday night. Elsewhere about 1-3cm, depending on where showers end up before dying out. Wouldn't expect anything more than a dusting for some southern or eastern parts.

Ogie84 · 27-01-2015 9:48am

Carnacalla wrote: »

Dream stuff. I don't know if the Irish could handle it

No chance we'd be able to cope... TV3 would have to make a series of documentaries on it

munsterlegend · 27-01-2015 9:49am

maquiladora wrote: »

Looking at the HIRLAM, the northwest and parts of the west could see up to around 10cm by Wednesday night. Elsewhere about 1-3cm, depending on where showers end up before dying out. Wouldn't expect anything more than a dusting for some southern or eastern parts.

the Hirlam looks very heavy for north cork wednesday night Thursday morning. Maq are the temps and dp ok nationwide for snow?

hotwhiskey · 27-01-2015 9:57am

Looking at the 96z fax it has embedded troughs moving down from the North. This will really beef up the bands of showers which in turn will move much further inland on the strong NW.

Rebelbrowser · 27-01-2015 10:02am

I'm a huge fan of MTs forecasts and what he does for us for free but I wonder if having overplayed snow events previously he has resolved to be more conservative this winter? A few examples of that to date. He could be right (in general you won't lose too much money betting on rain in Ireland) but I genuinely don't think his forecast reflects the models or, more importantly, the local knowledge we have of how these events have played out before. Let's see though. As always I'm gormlessly optimistic!

maquiladora · 27-01-2015 10:04am

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Looking at the 96z fax it has embedded troughs moving down from the North. This will really beef up the bands of showers which in turn will move much further inland on the strong NW.

By Friday this will be more likely to be falling as rain rather than snow, apart from on high ground. Conditions won't be as favorable as on Wednesday/Thursday morning.

COLD SPELL Jan 28th Onwards: Wintry Showers/Frosty, Some Snow Accumulations

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