Boxing betting thread

Morrison J wrote: »

Fight doesn't take place till mid-August but took 5/2 on Rachel Ball to beat Shannon Courtenay a few weeks ago. Massive step up for Courtenay who hasn't looked great whenever I've seen her previously. Seems to be a fair bit of money coming in on Ball too the 5/2 isn't available in many places anymore.

Money still piling in on Ball. Reckon that fight will be a pickem with the bookies come fight time.

Loads of fights this weekend but another value bet is Anthony Fox @ 8/1. Far better fighter than his record suggests and I'd expect a close fight in that one for sure. Odds far too wide.

Boooourns wrote: »

Had a go of Donovan at 4-1, generous price. Hopefully he takes to the step up in weight.

Hard fight to call. I don't think Zelfa Barrett is all that but how good is a 35 year old Eric Donovan? So many unknowns as he's never fought remotely close to this this level as a pro, never done 12 rounds, never had to face any sort of adversity.

Thinking of doing a small bet on the fight to go the distance @ 2/1.

Banking on Donovan's gas tank holding up which is a big risk in fairness but he has looked fit and capable of going more rounds in previous fights. Surely he's in the shape of his life for this one. Two non punchers and I'd expect the fight to be fought at a very slow pace given how technical both of them are. 2/1 seems a generous price.

langer91 wrote: »

Some shout cheers, she was 14/1 two rounds to go and 10/1 heading into the last, wish i had re-backed at those odds

Did not think we'd get the decision going our way in Eddie's back garden to be honest but very glad when we did. 5/2 was always going it be great value regardless.

markc91 wrote: »

Anything for tonight?

The Sky card is tough to find value on really.

Don't have a bet on the main event as don't really see much value in it. Value might even be with the Povetkin KO even though I feel confident enough in Whyte given the shape he's in. Picking the method of victory is the issue. Could see Whyte putting it on Povetkin a bit late on but Povetkin is tough. Might put a small bet on Whyte in rounds 7-12 @ 3/1 just for interest but wouldn't be confident on it.

Taylor points @ 4/7 looks good. Persoon has had arm surgery, a failed move to the amateurs and hasn't had a full camp. Think the lack of crowd will help Katie as she tries to box more disciplined and wins wide on points.

Chris Kongo points @ 15/8. Very well matched fight and have seen loads of people taking Clay but think Kongo should hopefully be too big and able to find a rythm fighting on the outside to shade it on the cards.

Couple of bets I like in the States later on too. Like Porter to make a statement and get a knockout and think Gallimore is decent enough value against Fundora. Fundora is massive at the weight but very hittable. Gallimore can bang a bit and has been competitive at a higher level. Think he's a bit overpriced and worth a stab personally.

Porter via KO @ Evens

Gallimore via KO @ 7/2.

Niall Kennedy is 8/1 to beat Alen Babic. Definitely a price that won't last. Kennedy probably gets knocked out early but if he was to survive the first couple of rounds he's definitely got a chance. Babic extremely crude and one dimensional.

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Free money

Hammer also tends to go the distance. Dave Allen definitely doesn't like long fights...

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone see Gorman at the weigh-in? He looked in terrible shape. Like, ordinary fat bloke who needs to get down the gym, kinda shape. I don't know anything about Lartey but he's nearly 5-1. Thoughts?

Lartey arguably gave Dubuois his best fight.
Just saw Gorman's weigh in. Tempted.

normanoffside wrote: »

Got this at 5/1 in Paddy Power

Aye threw 20 quid on it through Betfair myself. Fingers crossed.

Anyone giving Vasquez any chance of upsetting Ritson later?

I've backed against Ritson a fair few times so maybe I've just got him all wrong but I always think if you box him and don't get drawn into a fight he's very beatable. Vasquez might be awkward enough to cause him some issues. Vasquez got robbed against Ohara Davies last year and he's generally a far tougher fight than his record suggests.

Think Ritson more than likely wins with a bit to spare but Vasquez points @ 11/1 just seems very big to me.

megadodge wrote: »

You're reasoning is good here. Vasquez's movement is bound to give Ritson problems, but I wonder can he keep it up for the 10 rounds? However, 11/1 is definitely worth a shot.

Yeah if it was 5 or 6/1 I wouldn't give it much of a look. Even if Vasquez does ok the rounds will probably be close enough that Ritson will get the decision regardless. 11/1 just jumps out to me as a price that's too big given Ritson's limitations though. Seems worth a small stab anyway.

Morrison J wrote: »

Also pretty much always back Loma in rounds 7-12 and doing the same tonight. Often comes in or comes very close. Pedraza and Campbell both hung on by a thread and are both seasoned 12 round fighters. Lopez only been past 7 rounds once and shouldn't get the slow paced fight he usually likes. 9/2 seems overpriced to me.

Good shout this. If Loma does what Loma does Lopez will be missing a lot and tiring once he hits those later rounds.

Morrison J wrote: »

Moments like this you wonder why you bet on boxing at all. Robbed blind!

Yours was an excellent call. Well reasoned out and you spotted the value.
I took your advice and got it at 12/1 on Betfair, but purely because of the iffy factor I just put a fiver on it, but I still feel robbed.

Unlucky.

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Fight is off

https://twitter.com/MichaelBensonn/status/1318580115392049153

Dave looks to be fighting some lad lovejoy now according to his Instagram stories.

normanoffside wrote: »

Anyone know much about him? You can get 4/1 in places

Very padded record by the sounds of it and he's completely out of shape. If there's a half decent price going for Allen via KO I'll take it I think.

https://twitter.com/RonLewis_/status/1320043159792082948?s=19
https://twitter.com/Hock1717/status/1320452606704209921?s=19

I just know he has sparred with Tyson Fury so he can't be that bad.
Doesn't look 340+lbs from this picture he posted today either

https://twitter.com/lovejoyboxing/status/1320660056204070912

Lot of interesting fights from a betting perspective this weekend.

Munguia is a guy I have earmarked to take a loss very soon. Reminds me of Jarrett Hurd in that he's an extremely limited weight bully who'll get beat when he comes up against the wrong type of guy. Not sure if Tureano Johnson is the guy for the job tbh but if the odds are good enough I might be tempted to take a stab on him.

Selby v Kambosos. Always tough to gauge where Selby is at. Always been inconsistent and thought the move up in weight would help that but wasn't blown away by his performance against Burns. Want to watch more of Kambosos but he's tough and strong and potentially a bad matchup for Selby who generally likes to fight at his own pace. All the money seems to be going on Kambosos but it might be a fight I leave alone tbh.

Tommy McCarthy in an intriguing fight too against an opponent who seems to be taking a very big step up on paper.

Morrison J wrote: »

Selby v Kambosos. Always tough to gauge where Selby is at. Always been inconsistent and thought the move up in weight would help that but wasn't blown away by his performance against Burns. Want to watch more of Kambosos but he's tough and strong and potentially a bad matchup for Selby who generally likes to fight at his own pace. All the money seems to be going on Kambosos but it might be a fight I leave alone tbh.

Money flying in on Kambosos all week. Hate to go against where the money is going but Selby looks like value to me at this point. Can get 8/5 on Selby points now which is mental given he's likely to be get the benefit of the close rounds given he's the home fighter. Watching how much Kambosos struggled with Mickey Bey I can't see Selby not at least keeping the fight close either.

Selby points @ 8/5
Gassiev KO 1-6 @ 5/6
Usyk KO 7-12 @ 23/10

Look the pick of the betting to me.

Diddley Squat wrote: »

Gervonta going to wilt in the second half - his body type isn't made for the distance fights.


Leo Santa Cruz round 9-12 - 66/1


You heard it here first

Good call!

Under 3.5 rounds in Little-Babic @ 5/6 looks generous to me

I'd be very careful when it comes to betting in the Jones v Tyson fight, not announcing the winner if it goes to points. :eek:

And no knockouts allowed.:eek:

Morrison J wrote: »

54-0 Wanheng Menayothin fights tomorrow morning.

.

In your face, Mayweather.

His foes can't be as bad as Mayweather's last one, that got him to 50-0.....and struggled!

Sickened I missed this.

You're a dab hand at these tips Morrison.