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Boxing betting thread

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

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megadodge wrote: »

You're reasoning is good here. Vasquez's movement is bound to give Ritson problems, but I wonder can he keep it up for the 10 rounds? However, 11/1 is definitely worth a shot.

Yeah if it was 5 or 6/1 I wouldn't give it much of a look. Even if Vasquez does ok the rounds will probably be close enough that Ritson will get the decision regardless. 11/1 just jumps out to me as a price that's too big given Ritson's limitations though. Seems worth a small stab anyway.

Also pretty much always back Loma in rounds 7-12 and doing the same tonight. Often comes in or comes very close. Pedraza and Campbell both hung on by a thread and are both seasoned 12 round fighters. Lopez only been past 7 rounds once and shouldn't get the slow paced fight he usually likes. 9/2 seems overpriced to me.

Morrison J wrote: »

Also pretty much always back Loma in rounds 7-12 and doing the same tonight. Often comes in or comes very close. Pedraza and Campbell both hung on by a thread and are both seasoned 12 round fighters. Lopez only been past 7 rounds once and shouldn't get the slow paced fight he usually likes. 9/2 seems overpriced to me.

Good shout this. If Loma does what Loma does Lopez will be missing a lot and tiring once he hits those later rounds.

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone giving Vasquez any chance of upsetting Ritson later?

I've backed against Ritson a fair few times so maybe I've just got him all wrong but I always think if you box him and don't get drawn into a fight he's very beatable. Vasquez might be awkward enough to cause him some issues. Vasquez got robbed against Ohara Davies last year and he's generally a far tougher fight than his record suggests.

Think Ritson more than likely wins with a bit to spare but Vasquez points @ 11/1 just seems very big to me.

Moments like this you wonder why you bet on boxing at all. Robbed blind!

Morrison J wrote: »

Moments like this you wonder why you bet on boxing at all. Robbed blind!

Yours was an excellent call. Well reasoned out and you spotted the value.
I took your advice and got it at 12/1 on Betfair, but purely because of the iffy factor I just put a fiver on it, but I still feel robbed.

Unlucky.

Must have been that big hometown crowd that swayed the judges :pac:

I also had Vazquez on points. 11/1 with Paddy Power. I reckon they might pay out still.

They paid me on Bertran vs Burns years ago.

Loma 10-12 for me later.

megadodge wrote: »

Yours was an excellent call. Well reasoned out and you spotted the value.
I took your advice and got it at 12/1 on Betfair, but purely because of the iffy factor I just put a fiver on it, but I still feel robbed.

Unlucky.

Yeah only had a small stake on it myself purely because of the fact the fix would probably be in. You just knew when there was a big delay before reading out the cards that there was something dodgy going on. A real sickener.

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Fight is off

https://twitter.com/MichaelBensonn/status/1318580115392049153

normanoffside wrote: »

Fight is off

https://twitter.com/MichaelBensonn/status/1318580115392049153

FFS was too good to be true.

Dave looks to be fighting some lad lovejoy now according to his Instagram stories.

ASOT wrote: »

Dave looks to be fighting some lad lovejoy now according to his Instagram stories.

Anyone know much about him? You can get 4/1 in places

normanoffside wrote: »

Anyone know much about him? You can get 4/1 in places

Very padded record by the sounds of it and he's completely out of shape. If there's a half decent price going for Allen via KO I'll take it I think.

https://twitter.com/RonLewis_/status/1320043159792082948?s=19
https://twitter.com/Hock1717/status/1320452606704209921?s=19

Somehow he's ranked 15th by the WBA :pac:

I just know he has sparred with Tyson Fury so he can't be that bad.
Doesn't look 340+lbs from this picture he posted today either

https://twitter.com/lovejoyboxing/status/1320660056204070912

normanoffside wrote: »

I just know he has sparred with Tyson Fury so he can't be that bad.
Doesn't look 340+lbs from this picture he posted today either

https://twitter.com/lovejoyboxing/status/1320660056204070912

Maybe. I suppose we'll see at the weigh in. Just seems to be a lot of red flags with him. There's even a few videos I've seen of him hitting pads online that wouldn't give a lot of hope.

Lot of interesting fights from a betting perspective this weekend.

Munguia is a guy I have earmarked to take a loss very soon. Reminds me of Jarrett Hurd in that he's an extremely limited weight bully who'll get beat when he comes up against the wrong type of guy. Not sure if Tureano Johnson is the guy for the job tbh but if the odds are good enough I might be tempted to take a stab on him.

Selby v Kambosos. Always tough to gauge where Selby is at. Always been inconsistent and thought the move up in weight would help that but wasn't blown away by his performance against Burns. Want to watch more of Kambosos but he's tough and strong and potentially a bad matchup for Selby who generally likes to fight at his own pace. All the money seems to be going on Kambosos but it might be a fight I leave alone tbh.

Tommy McCarthy in an intriguing fight too against an opponent who seems to be taking a very big step up on paper.

Gassiev in rounds 1-6 still available at 5/6 in some places. Basically fighting a cruiserweight. Looks like a price that won't last to me.

Morrison J wrote: »

Selby v Kambosos. Always tough to gauge where Selby is at. Always been inconsistent and thought the move up in weight would help that but wasn't blown away by his performance against Burns. Want to watch more of Kambosos but he's tough and strong and potentially a bad matchup for Selby who generally likes to fight at his own pace. All the money seems to be going on Kambosos but it might be a fight I leave alone tbh.

Money flying in on Kambosos all week. Hate to go against where the money is going but Selby looks like value to me at this point. Can get 8/5 on Selby points now which is mental given he's likely to be get the benefit of the close rounds given he's the home fighter. Watching how much Kambosos struggled with Mickey Bey I can't see Selby not at least keeping the fight close either.

Selby points @ 8/5
Gassiev KO 1-6 @ 5/6
Usyk KO 7-12 @ 23/10

Look the pick of the betting to me.

Gervonta going to wilt in the second half - his body type isn't made for the distance fights.

Leo Santa Cruz round 9-12 - 66/1

You heard it here first

images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcREPGBiTEh6LLpJC6zOwNbpk6meatur85rPLw&usqp=CAU

images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcREPGBiTEh6LLpJC6zOwNbpk6meatur85rPLw&usqp=CAU

Diddley Squat wrote: »

Gervonta going to wilt in the second half - his body type isn't made for the distance fights.

Leo Santa Cruz round 9-12 - 66/1

You heard it here first

Good call!

Over 6.5 rounds in Haney v Gamboa @ 8/11.

6.5 rounds seems a low number to set it at given Gamboa's toughness and Haney isn't that real big a puncher who fights at a slow enough pace. Hopefully Gamboa hasn't become completely over the hill overnight.

Under 3.5 rounds in Little-Babic @ 5/6 looks generous to me

If you're a Joe Joyce backer next week there's 18/1 available on him to win in rounds 7-12 next week. Definitely a price that won't last given its clearly his main avenue to win bringing Dubois into deep waters late.

I like Dubois to win personally but that 18/1 is a massive price surely and worth a look.

I'd be very careful when it comes to betting in the Jones v Tyson fight, not announcing the winner if it goes to points. :eek:

And no knockouts allowed.:eek:

54-0 Wanheng Menayothin fights tomorrow morning.

Probably has the fakest, most protected record in boxing. He's also now 35 and hasn't boxed in a year. 35 is ancient for a minimum weight boxer so a loss is surely not far away. Can't say I know much about the opponent but watched a bit tonight and he's definitely not bad.

It's one that could look terrible after but does feel like Panya Pradabsri is worth a small stab @ 9/2.

Morrison J wrote: »

54-0 Wanheng Menayothin fights tomorrow morning.

.

In your face, Mayweather.

His foes can't be as bad as Mayweather's last one, that got him to 50-0.....and struggled!

walshb wrote: »

In your face, Mayweather.

His foes can't be as bad as Mayweather's last one, that got him to 50-0.....and struggled!

Floyd will sleep well tonight!

https://twitter.com/SkySportsBoxing/status/1332261383774347264?s=19

Sickened I missed this.

You're a dab hand at these tips Morrison.

Morrison J wrote: »

If you're a Joe Joyce backer next week there's 18/1 available on him to win in rounds 7-12 next week. Definitely a price that won't last given its clearly his main avenue to win bringing Dubois into deep waters late.

I like Dubois to win personally but that 18/1 is a massive price surely and worth a look.

Good heads up. I got it at 14/1 when I backed it.