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Boxing betting thread

magma69

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

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walshb

Deleted User wrote: »

Askren on points - 7/2.

Askren may not have the hands of Roy Jones Jr, but he has a granite chin.

Jake Paul isn't a boxer, his fundamentals are atrocious. He relied on his power getting rid of a Youtuber and a retired basketballer. He'll need more than a left hook and overhand right to get rid of Askren.

He doesn’t have to get rid of him..

Just has to beat him..

[Deleted User]

Askren on points - 7/2.

Askren may not have the hands of Roy Jones Jr, but he has a granite chin.

Jake Paul isn't a boxer, his fundamentals are atrocious. He relied on his power getting rid of a Youtuber and a retired basketballer. He'll need more than a left hook and overhand right to get rid of Askren.

selectamatic

Tbf askren has never looked in shape.

Always displayed high levels of stamina and durability in competition too.

walshb

Askren can’t box for Sh1t

At least Paul has some ability, albeit not much..

Bigger, taller and much more a boxer than Askren.

Morrison J

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Jake Paul is around 1.85 to win his bout with Ben Askren next week. Askren's a wrestler with terrible boxing so this seems like a really decent price on Paul despite his own inexperience.

I like to avoid betting these fights as I genuinely don't know much about either but after seeing Askren on the scales I couldn't help myself and have backed Paul via KO @ evens. Askren looks like he hasn't trainer a lick for it.

https://twitter.com/stanley_N7/status/1383194777525616641?s=19

Ohhhhwhataday

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Jake Paul is around 1.85 to win his bout with Ben Askren next week. Askren's a wrestler with terrible boxing so this seems like a really decent price on Paul despite his own inexperience.

Is jake Paul defo gonna win in your opinion?

Brussels Sprout

Jake Paul is around 1.85 to win his bout with Ben Askren next week. Askren's a wrestler with terrible boxing so this seems like a really decent price on Paul despite his own inexperience.

Kaiser84

Morrison J wrote: »

Yeah no lack of doggedness from Theopane. Just a bit more outgunned than I expected and legs definitely not what they once were. Couldn't get out of the way and Eggington just way too big for him.

Not much left there in the tank. Could be his last bout. He was surviving during every round, didn't really offer anything. If he'd have made it to round 7 or 8 I think Eggington would've settled for the points victory.

Morrison J

Kaiser84 wrote: »

3/1 on Paddy Power. Still good value, good shout again. Theopane went the distance with Danny Garcia and went late with Broner in the past. Eggington seems to be very lacking in power at 154, as you said. Theopane is very dogged. Good chance of it going 10 rounds.

Yeah no lack of doggedness from Theopane. Just a bit more outgunned than I expected and legs definitely not what they once were. Couldn't get out of the way and Eggington just way too big for him.

Kaiser84

Morrison J wrote: »

4/1 for Same Eggington to win on points tomorrow (Friday) looks a big price. Would expect him to outwork Theopane but don't think his power has been the same since he has moved to 154. Boxrec has it listed as only being a ten rounder so not a huge ask for Theopane to last the pace with him hopefully.

3/1 on Paddy Power. Still good value, good shout again. Theopane went the distance with Danny Garcia and went late with Broner in the past. Eggington seems to be very lacking in power at 154, as you said. Theopane is very dogged. Good chance of it going 10 rounds.

Morrison J

4/1 for Same Eggington to win on points tomorrow (Friday) looks a big price. Would expect him to outwork Theopane but don't think his power has been the same since he has moved to 154. Boxrec has it listed as only being a ten rounder so not a huge ask for Theopane to last the pace with him hopefully.

Morrison J

Over 7.5 rounds in Yarde v Arthur @ 4/5

Think Arthur is getting a bit overlooked in this and belongs at or close enough to this level for it to be competitive. Think Yarde should win but would be surprised if he blasts Arthur out of there early. Think that total rounds line is a bit on the low side.

Morrison J

Yeah that 18/1 was just silly really. Joyce's main avenue to win. Never made sense.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

If you're a Joe Joyce backer next week there's 18/1 available on him to win in rounds 7-12 next week. Definitely a price that won't last given its clearly his main avenue to win bringing Dubois into deep waters late.

I like Dubois to win personally but that 18/1 is a massive price surely and worth a look.

You're on a roll.
Unfortunately I have had a few bets I wanted to make in the last month but given that bookies are closed I haven't been able to make them.

I don't like betting online.

Kaiser84

Morrison J wrote: »

If you're a Joe Joyce backer next week there's 18/1 available on him to win in rounds 7-12 next week. Definitely a price that won't last given its clearly his main avenue to win bringing Dubois into deep waters late.

I like Dubois to win personally but that 18/1 is a massive price surely and worth a look.

Good heads up. I got it at 14/1 when I backed it.

selectamatic

Sickened I missed this.

You're a dab hand at these tips Morrison.

Morrison J

walshb wrote: »

In your face, Mayweather.

His foes can't be as bad as Mayweather's last one, that got him to 50-0.....and struggled!

Floyd will sleep well tonight!

https://twitter.com/SkySportsBoxing/status/1332261383774347264?s=19

walshb

Morrison J wrote: »

54-0 Wanheng Menayothin fights tomorrow morning.

.

In your face, Mayweather.

His foes can't be as bad as Mayweather's last one, that got him to 50-0.....and struggled!

Morrison J

54-0 Wanheng Menayothin fights tomorrow morning.

Probably has the fakest, most protected record in boxing. He's also now 35 and hasn't boxed in a year. 35 is ancient for a minimum weight boxer so a loss is surely not far away. Can't say I know much about the opponent but watched a bit tonight and he's definitely not bad.

It's one that could look terrible after but does feel like Panya Pradabsri is worth a small stab @ 9/2.

Rjd2

I'd be very careful when it comes to betting in the Jones v Tyson fight, not announcing the winner if it goes to points. :eek:

And no knockouts allowed.:eek:

Morrison J

If you're a Joe Joyce backer next week there's 18/1 available on him to win in rounds 7-12 next week. Definitely a price that won't last given its clearly his main avenue to win bringing Dubois into deep waters late.

I like Dubois to win personally but that 18/1 is a massive price surely and worth a look.

Morrison J

Under 3.5 rounds in Little-Babic @ 5/6 looks generous to me

Morrison J

Over 6.5 rounds in Haney v Gamboa @ 8/11.

6.5 rounds seems a low number to set it at given Gamboa's toughness and Haney isn't that real big a puncher who fights at a slow enough pace. Hopefully Gamboa hasn't become completely over the hill overnight.

walshb

Diddley Squat wrote: »

Gervonta going to wilt in the second half - his body type isn't made for the distance fights.

Leo Santa Cruz round 9-12 - 66/1

You heard it here first

Good call!

Diddley Squat

Gervonta going to wilt in the second half - his body type isn't made for the distance fights.

Leo Santa Cruz round 9-12 - 66/1

You heard it here first

images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcREPGBiTEh6LLpJC6zOwNbpk6meatur85rPLw&usqp=CAU

images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcREPGBiTEh6LLpJC6zOwNbpk6meatur85rPLw&usqp=CAU

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Selby v Kambosos. Always tough to gauge where Selby is at. Always been inconsistent and thought the move up in weight would help that but wasn't blown away by his performance against Burns. Want to watch more of Kambosos but he's tough and strong and potentially a bad matchup for Selby who generally likes to fight at his own pace. All the money seems to be going on Kambosos but it might be a fight I leave alone tbh.

Money flying in on Kambosos all week. Hate to go against where the money is going but Selby looks like value to me at this point. Can get 8/5 on Selby points now which is mental given he's likely to be get the benefit of the close rounds given he's the home fighter. Watching how much Kambosos struggled with Mickey Bey I can't see Selby not at least keeping the fight close either.

Selby points @ 8/5
Gassiev KO 1-6 @ 5/6
Usyk KO 7-12 @ 23/10

Look the pick of the betting to me.

Morrison J

Gassiev in rounds 1-6 still available at 5/6 in some places. Basically fighting a cruiserweight. Looks like a price that won't last to me.

Morrison J

Lot of interesting fights from a betting perspective this weekend.

Munguia is a guy I have earmarked to take a loss very soon. Reminds me of Jarrett Hurd in that he's an extremely limited weight bully who'll get beat when he comes up against the wrong type of guy. Not sure if Tureano Johnson is the guy for the job tbh but if the odds are good enough I might be tempted to take a stab on him.

Selby v Kambosos. Always tough to gauge where Selby is at. Always been inconsistent and thought the move up in weight would help that but wasn't blown away by his performance against Burns. Want to watch more of Kambosos but he's tough and strong and potentially a bad matchup for Selby who generally likes to fight at his own pace. All the money seems to be going on Kambosos but it might be a fight I leave alone tbh.

Tommy McCarthy in an intriguing fight too against an opponent who seems to be taking a very big step up on paper.

Morrison J

normanoffside wrote: »

I just know he has sparred with Tyson Fury so he can't be that bad.
Doesn't look 340+lbs from this picture he posted today either

https://twitter.com/lovejoyboxing/status/1320660056204070912

Maybe. I suppose we'll see at the weigh in. Just seems to be a lot of red flags with him. There's even a few videos I've seen of him hitting pads online that wouldn't give a lot of hope.

normanoffside

I just know he has sparred with Tyson Fury so he can't be that bad.
Doesn't look 340+lbs from this picture he posted today either

https://twitter.com/lovejoyboxing/status/1320660056204070912