Boxing betting thread

magma69

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

gene_tunney

magma69 wrote: »

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

Betting on any sport is rubbish really. The bookies always win in the long run. There's a reason they make a profit and not a loss.

That said, I bet on boxing a bit. I don't expect to make money, I see it as a way to make the fight more exciting if I know I'll be watching.

magma69

gene_tunney wrote: »

Betting on any sport is rubbish really. The bookies always win in the long run. There's a reason they make a profit and not a loss.

That said, I bet on boxing a bit. I don't expect to make money, I see it as a way to make the fight more exciting if I know I'll be watching.

Well it's not rubbish if you're really good at what you do, JP McManus?

There are a minority that beat the bookies long term. The reason they make a profit is because the vast majority of people lose to the bookies over long term.

I've probably evened out what I've won and lost on boxing. But, like yourself, I just do it for a bit of craic. Don't bet big money.

gene_tunney

magma69 wrote: »

Well it's not rubbish if you're really good at what you do, JP McManus?

There are a minority that beat the bookies long term. The reason they make a profit is because the vast majority of people lose to the bookies over long term.

I've probably evened out what I've won and lost on boxing. But, like yourself, I just do it for a bit of craic. Don't bet big money.

Horse racing is a different game, it's all about having the inside track and holding back horses. You have to be in the know rather than simply well informed. I'd say maybe 1% at most make a profit, and they're professional gamblers who do it as a job. Bookies by and large offer terrible odds.

Strongbow10

Jayob on this boxing forum has been the best tipster by far check this thread out below, and was spot on tonight again

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...6630329&page=3

Keep them coming !

magma69

gene_tunney wrote: »

Betting on any sport is rubbish really.

gene_tunney wrote: »

Horse racing is a different game

gene_tunney

magma69 wrote: »

:cool:

magma69

Guerrero decision Berto @ 3-1. Get in there!

barney4001

gene_tunney wrote: »

Horse racing is a different game, it's all about having the inside track and holding back horses. You have to be in the know rather than simply well informed. I'd say maybe 1% at most make a profit, and they're professional gamblers who do it as a job. Bookies by and large offer terrible odds.

they always did but limits are much better now than they were years ago

Wild_Dogger

I'll help keep this thread alive !

I would bet/trade every weekend on boxing.
Had The Ukaraine to win between round 6-10 @ 10/1

But I did loose on the Berto fight.

I hope they checked the ghost's glove after the fight. I couldnt beleive how swollen Berto was.
The ghost is a dirty fighter ..........

endswell

magma69 wrote: »

Well it's not rubbish if you're really good at what you do, JP McManus?

There are a minority that beat the bookies long term. The reason they make a profit is because the vast majority of people lose to the bookies over long term.

I've probably evened out what I've won and lost on boxing. But, like yourself, I just do it for a bit of craic. Don't bet big money.

I heard before that even the JPs of this world only make 15% profit on betting which is really only as good as a good investment. Stand to correction on the figure but plenty of reason to believe who told me

walshb

JP and the likes do well becauase they can afford to do well. They can afford the big losses. Charles Barkley (NBA man) is an incessant gambler. He says he will never give up because he can afford to keep doing it. He will never be financially in trouble he says. PBF is another gambler, one who has won a lot, but I am betting that he has lost a lot too. Wealthy people can gamble with a lot less impact to them financially than those who are not wealthy. Of course, wealthy people can be dumb/greedy/warped and can gamble away all their money.

magma69

walshb wrote: »

JP and the likes do well becauase they can afford to do well. They can afford the big losses. Charles Barkley (NBA man) is an incessant gambler. He says he will never give up because he can afford to keep doing it. He will never be financially in trouble he says. PBF is another gambler, one who has won a lot, but I am betting that he has lost a lot too. Wealthy people can gamble with a lot less impact to them financially than those who are not wealthy. Of course, wealthy people can be dumb/greedy/warped and can gamble away all their money.

JP McManus made his money in gambling. He doesn't really gamble anymore. He quit while he was ahead because he's smart.

Anyways, this isn't what this thread is about so can we stick to the topic please.

I'm backing Price to win in rounds 1-6 at 4/9 on Skybet. Think it's a pretty safe bet with decent value in it.

walshb

magma69 wrote: »

JP McManus made his money in gambling. He doesn't really gamble anymore. He quit while he was ahead because he's smart.

Anyways, this isn't what this thread is about so can we stick to the topic please.

I'm backing Price to win in rounds 1-6 at 4/9 on Skybet. Think it's a pretty safe bet with decent value in it.

Was JP an avearge Joe earning an average wage? Not sure but I think JP had money to begin with. For every JP there are far more failures. Anyway, back on topic as you requested.

SRFC

Lads what do ya think cotto at 4/9 to beat trout?


I was honestly expecting 1/5 cotto is a boxing legend (to me anyway) one of the best of his generation against an up an comer undefeated world champ fair enough he beat canelos brother in mexico but seriously outclassed here im expecting an easy win 4/9 is generous

magma69

SRFC wrote: »

Lads what do ya think cotto at 4/9 to beat trout?


I was honestly expecting 1/5 cotto is a boxing legend (to me anyway) one of the best of his generation against an up an comer undefeated world champ fair enough he beat canelos brother in mexico but seriously outclassed here im expecting an easy win 4/9 is generous

Personally I think Price rounds 1-6 is a better bet at the same odds. Cotto hasn't exactly looked stellar at 154. Looked poor against Foreman and a shot Mayorga. He looked good against Margarito to be fair but I don't think Margarito offered much without his concrete gloves. You could argue it was a good performance against Mayweather but personally, I think Mayweather is far removed from his prime and is ready for the taking.

I'm not trying discredit Cotto, he deserves to be in the hall of fame as far as I'm concerned. I do think he'll win on points, but I don't think it's a sure shot. Trout is far from a walkover.

magma69

Price takes him out in round 2. Bit disappointed I didn't go for rounds 1-3 bet but it's better to be safe than sorry.

4/9 were excellent odds for 1-6 so I won't complain.

djhaxman

magma69 wrote: »

Price takes him out in round 2. Bit disappointed I didn't go for rounds 1-3 bet but it's better to be safe than sorry.

4/9 were excellent odds for 1-6 so I won't complain.

Have a double going, Price inside the first 3, and Dawson to beat Flintoff, don't know much about Dawson tbf.

Pays almost 2/1.

magma69

djhaxman wrote: »

Have a double going, Price inside the first 3, and Dawson to beat Flintoff, don't know much about Dawson tbf.

Pays almost 2/1.

Wouldn't have my homework done on that fight either. Great call in Price 1-3 though.

SRFC

from watching flintoff spar he looks woeful this bloke will never live it down if he gets beaten by a cricketer.

djhaxman

Well we know how bad Dawson is now. Flintoff will win this.

Freak show.

magma69

Trout beats Cotto on points.

magma69

Staying well away from the Pac v Marquez fight.

megadodge

magma69 wrote: »

Staying well away from the Pac v Marquez fight.

I agree if you're betting on a winner either way, but a pretty safe bet is for it to go the full distance. At aprox. 1/3 on Betfair it's not much value I agree, but as boxing bets go it's one of the more reliable ones.

magma69

I'm taking Billy Joe Saunders by KO/TKO/Disqualification at 2/5 tonight with Boylesports. Pretty much a sure thing imo so I'm slapping a fair few bob on it. He'll be snapping at the heels of the bigger name middleweights in Ireland and the UK if he does the business tonight.

Lots of fights on tonight. What do ye think are the best value bets?

SRFC

Kahn to win by early knock out in the first few rounds surely worth a bet can see him coming out and blitzing this bum he's fighting.

magma69

SRFC wrote: »

Kahn to win by early knock out in the first few rounds surely worth a bet can see him coming out and blitzing this bum he's fighting.

I dunno. It's risky if you ask me. Khan isn't a big puncher and Molina could just go into his shell/survival mode from round one. Khan is obviously going to win but it's tough to predict precisely how.

larrylamp

Great thread, put 20 on Khan in the 7th, 240 back off owl paddie if im lucky.

endswell

larrylamp wrote: »

Great thread, put 20 on Khan in the 7th, 240 back off owl paddie if im lucky.

pure madness. what reasoning could u possibly have that khan will do it in the 7th. does he have a history of tko7. does molina? has he said sth? this is the reason pp is loaded.

magma69

Bit of a mad punt I suppose. Grand if you can throwaway twenty snots for the craic. I know I can't! :pac::o

Devastator

endswell wrote: »

this is the reason pp is loaded.

like all bookies :pac:

SRFC

Agree but people like this have luck with bets like this id spend hours studying a horse race go through all the form back a horse then some rag wins with no form and some mug in the bookies backed it because it had a nice name :mad:

Wild_Dogger

magma69 wrote: »

I'm taking Billy Joe Saunders by KO/TKO/Disqualification at 2/5 tonight with Boylesports. Pretty much a sure thing imo so I'm slapping a fair few bob on it. He'll be snapping at the heels of the bigger name middleweights in Ireland and the UK if he does the business tonight.

Lots of fights on tonight. What do ye think are the best value bets?

Fook .......... I'm on Nicky Blackwell for a few quid.

will be a good fight bruv

magma69

Looks like this bet isn't gonna come through for me. I expected BJS to be more aggressive. Still a bit to go though.

magma69

Ah well. My good run has come to an end.

magma69

Darren Barker is 2/5 to win by KO/TKO or Disqualification on Boylesports. Can't see the 37 year old going the twelve rounds.

megadodge

I've said all along that Cloud is the right kind of opponent for Hopkins. I know we've said it before, but it depends how much he has left, but without knowing the odds, I reckon Hopkins on points is worth a decent punt.

Wild_Dogger

magma69 wrote: »

Darren Barker is 2/5 to win by KO/TKO or Disqualification on Boylesports. Can't see the 37 year old going the twelve rounds.

I dont know if you are betting online , but Skybety are offering
2/5 for EITHER FIGHTER TO WIN IN ROUND 1-12 INCLUSIVE

This will cover you for the unlikely underdog KO and also if it goes to the points on an early stoppage (e.g. accidental headbutt or similar)

Anyway tonight on ESPN Friday Fight Night we see Victor Manuel Cayo vs Emmanuel Taylor

I am going a small bet on Victor Cayo to win with odds as follows:

Cayo to win 6/4 at BET365

Cayo should be peaking at 28 here with a good blend of experience and physical ability.
Whilst Taylor is just 22 and untested to some degree.

This fight is scheduled for 10 rounds
*Taylor has only ever been past the 6th round once (when he lost an eight round split decision)

magma69

Bernard Hopkins is the bane of the bookies! How many times has he been bookies underdog and took his opponent to school. What a feckin legend!

magma69

Taking the Bellew v Chilemba fight to go the 11th round or over @ 8/11.

Gonna do a small bet on Bellew to be knocked down at 2/1.

Wild_Dogger

where are you getting this bet down ?

I was thinking of going for my regular high-performance bet of :
Fight to finish Round 7 - 12 (inclusive).

Both in good shape .........

magma69

Silly me forgot to mention that. Them odds are from Skybet.

Wild_Dogger

Any thoughts on the Crolla vs Derry Matthews fight ?

I am always a little hesitant to back a rematch, especially when the loser of the first match is favorite.

More importantly, any opinions on Mike Alvarado @ 7/2 ?

This is another 50/50 type fight in my opinion.
Mile High looks in much better condition during the weigh in !
But then Rios always looks skin and bone without definition.......

Got a few bob down on Alvarado on Betfair @ 5.3 (almost 9/2)
Have been laying this off just to green up my sheet.

Finally, on the German card- I will be backing Denis Grachev as underdog to bet the 40 year old Zsolt Erdei who hasn't fought in ages.

Grachev's record is good and his loss against Bute was clearly a home-town decision.
He's got the measure of Erdei who may be just getting a one-off pay check at his age.

FTA69

Wild_Dogger wrote: »

Got a few bob down on Alvarado on Betfair @ 5.3 (almost 9/2)
Have been laying this off just to green up my sheet.

Great odds. I still think that Rios will win but that fight go either way. Well worth a punt at those odds?

megadodge

Wild_Dogger wrote: »

Any thoughts on the Crolla vs Derry Matthews fight ?

I am always a little hesitant to back a rematch, especially when the loser of the first match is favorite.

I fancy Crolla. I thought the stoppage last time was a very premature one. That one was Matthew's big night and I really expect Crolla to wear him down for a late stoppage or clear UD.

magma69

Rigo on points @ 7/2 with 365. Cracking odds for what I see as a toss up. Think it will either be a Donaire stoppage or a Rigo points victory. Fascinating match up.

gene_tunney

magma69 wrote: »

Rigo on points @ 7/2 with 365. Cracking odds for what I see as a toss up. Think it will either be a Donaire stoppage or a Rigo points victory. Fascinating match up.

Can't see the Rigo decision myself. His output is too low.

magma69

Get in there!

megadodge

Only won a small amount on Betfair as I got too greedy and the price on Rigo on pts kept coming in. I was sure there'd be a late widening of the odds again and I missed out on a decent score.

gene_tunney

magma69 wrote: »

Rigo on points @ 7/2 with 365. Cracking odds for what I see as a toss up. Think it will either be a Donaire stoppage or a Rigo points victory. Fascinating match up.

Well called in fairness.

FTA69

Austin Trout is 12/1 to KO Alvarez while Alvarez is 11/4 to win by decision. Might stick a few bob on both of those options.