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Boxing betting thread

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

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Conlan via KO @ 6/4

Lopez decision over Commey @ 11/10

Boxing withdrawals might be getting the best of me with this one but..

Mariusz Wach to beat Kevin Johnson on points @ 4/6

Wach hasn’t stopped an opponent with a winning record since 2015.

Johnson has only been stopped three times in 16 defeats and is very good at surviving/spoiling.

Morrison J wrote: »

Boxing withdrawals might be getting the best of me with this one but..

Mariusz Wach to beat Kevin Johnson on points @ 4/6

Wach hasn’t stopped an opponent with a winning record since 2015.

Johnson has only been stopped three times in 16 defeats and is very good at surviving/spoiling.

8/15 on PP now. Will shop around and keep an eye on these odds.

Been doing pretty well on these Top Rank cards so will probably go to **** now I post these.

Like Nova to beat Sparrow via KO @ 2/1 tonight.

Don't actually rate Nova highly at all. Extremely reckless coming in and will get beat by a solid puncher sooner than later but don't think Sparrow is that guy. Sparrow a guy who likes to fight at a slow pace. Think Nova will have too much for him coming forward non stop and should get a KO in the mid to late rounds.

Like Jason Maloney on points too but hoping I can get even money or better on that. Lot of money coming on Baez today so hopefully the lines over here shift. Think Jason is the much better fighter out of the two brothers. From the few bits I've watched of Baez today he's half decent tall fighter who will come forward but be able to take a shot. Done 10 rounds before too so fight should hopefully go the distance.

Morrison J wrote: »

Been doing pretty well on these Top Rank cards so will probably go to **** now I post these.

Like Nova to beat Sparrow via KO @ 2/1 tonight.

Don't actually rate Nova highly at all. Extremely reckless coming in and will get beat by a solid puncher sooner than later but don't think Sparrow is that guy. Sparrow a guy who likes to fight at a slow pace. Think Nova will have too much for him coming forward non stop and should get a KO in the mid to late rounds.

Like Jason Maloney on points too but hoping I can get even money or better on that. Lot of money coming on Baez today so hopefully the lines over here shift. Think Jason is the much better fighter out of the two brothers. From the few bits I've watched of Baez today he's half decent tall fighter who will come forward but be able to take a shot. Done 10 rounds before too so fight should hopefully go the distance.

As expected 0/2 ffs.

Nova fought very tentative. Very different to how he's fought before. Like he was saving his gas tank. Still had Sparrow hurt in the 8th but couldn't finish the job.

Jason Maloney is really good. Competitive fight that looked likely to go the distance but corner pulled Baez after the 7th. Frustrating one.

Hearn announces the matchroom schedule later. Hopefully some competitive fights in that.

Anyone had a look at any cards for the weekend? Few competitive fights on.

Liking Tennyson via KO @ 13/10 and Gill on points @ 10/11 on first look.

Fulton v Leo an interesting fight in the States too. Need to watch a bit more of Leo before making a concrete opinion on it though.

In fairness to Matchroom, these fight camp cards are very competitive.
Tricky!

Fight doesn't take place till mid-August but took 5/2 on Rachel Ball to beat Shannon Courtenay a few weeks ago. Massive step up for Courtenay who hasn't looked great whenever I've seen her previously. Seems to be a fair bit of money coming in on Ball too the 5/2 isn't available in many places anymore.

Butson wrote: »

In fairness to Matchroom, these fight camp cards are very competitive.
Tricky!

Yep some well matched fights in fairness.

Morrison J wrote: »

Fulton v Leo an interesting fight in the States too. Need to watch a bit more of Leo before making a concrete opinion on it though.

Fulton failed his covid test so Tramaine Williams now fights Leo. Always liked the look of Tramaine Williams. Bit of a poor mans Pernell Whitaker. Very awkward, slippy southpaw who it should be awkward for Leo to adjust to on short notice.

Williams 11/10 to win looks like good value. Would expect him to be favourite come the time of the fight tbh.

Morrison J wrote: »

Fight doesn't take place till mid-August but took 5/2 on Rachel Ball to beat Shannon Courtenay a few weeks ago. Massive step up for Courtenay who hasn't looked great whenever I've seen her previously. Seems to be a fair bit of money coming in on Ball too the 5/2 isn't available in many places anymore.

Money still piling in on Ball. Reckon that fight will be a pickem with the bookies come fight time.

Loads of fights this weekend but another value bet is Anthony Fox @ 8/1. Far better fighter than his record suggests and I'd expect a close fight in that one for sure. Odds far too wide.

Had a go of Donovan at 4-1, generous price. Hopefully he takes to the step up in weight.

Boooourns wrote: »

Had a go of Donovan at 4-1, generous price. Hopefully he takes to the step up in weight.

Hard fight to call. I don't think Zelfa Barrett is all that but how good is a 35 year old Eric Donovan? So many unknowns as he's never fought remotely close to this this level as a pro, never done 12 rounds, never had to face any sort of adversity.

Thinking of doing a small bet on the fight to go the distance @ 2/1.

Banking on Donovan's gas tank holding up which is a big risk in fairness but he has looked fit and capable of going more rounds in previous fights. Surely he's in the shape of his life for this one. Two non punchers and I'd expect the fight to be fought at a very slow pace given how technical both of them are. 2/1 seems a generous price.

Morrison J wrote: »

Fight doesn't take place till mid-August but took 5/2 on Rachel Ball to beat Shannon Courtenay a few weeks ago. Massive step up for Courtenay who hasn't looked great whenever I've seen her previously. Seems to be a fair bit of money coming in on Ball too the 5/2 isn't available in many places anymore.

Some shout cheers, she was 14/1 two rounds to go and 10/1 heading into the last, wish i had re-backed at those odds

langer91 wrote: »

Some shout cheers, she was 14/1 two rounds to go and 10/1 heading into the last, wish i had re-backed at those odds

Did not think we'd get the decision going our way in Eddie's back garden to be honest but very glad when we did. 5/2 was always going it be great value regardless.

Anything for tonight?

markc91 wrote: »

Anything for tonight?

The Sky card is tough to find value on really.

Don't have a bet on the main event as don't really see much value in it. Value might even be with the Povetkin KO even though I feel confident enough in Whyte given the shape he's in. Picking the method of victory is the issue. Could see Whyte putting it on Povetkin a bit late on but Povetkin is tough. Might put a small bet on Whyte in rounds 7-12 @ 3/1 just for interest but wouldn't be confident on it.

Taylor points @ 4/7 looks good. Persoon has had arm surgery, a failed move to the amateurs and hasn't had a full camp. Think the lack of crowd will help Katie as she tries to box more disciplined and wins wide on points.

Chris Kongo points @ 15/8. Very well matched fight and have seen loads of people taking Clay but think Kongo should hopefully be too big and able to find a rythm fighting on the outside to shade it on the cards.

Couple of bets I like in the States later on too. Like Porter to make a statement and get a knockout and think Gallimore is decent enough value against Fundora. Fundora is massive at the weight but very hittable. Gallimore can bang a bit and has been competitive at a higher level. Think he's a bit overpriced and worth a stab personally.

Porter via KO @ Evens

Gallimore via KO @ 7/2.

Absolute robbery in the first!

Niall Kennedy is 8/1 to beat Alen Babic. Definitely a price that won't last. Kennedy probably gets knocked out early but if he was to survive the first couple of rounds he's definitely got a chance. Babic extremely crude and one dimensional.

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Free money

normanoffside wrote: »

Free money

Already into 4/6 so the money is definitely piling on alright.

Hammer also tends to go the distance. Dave Allen definitely doesn't like long fights...

Anyone see Gorman at the weigh-in? He looked in terrible shape. Like, ordinary fat bloke who needs to get down the gym, kinda shape. I don't know anything about Lartey but he's nearly 5-1. Thoughts?

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone see Gorman at the weigh-in? He looked in terrible shape. Like, ordinary fat bloke who needs to get down the gym, kinda shape. I don't know anything about Lartey but he's nearly 5-1. Thoughts?

Lartey arguably gave Dubuois his best fight.
Just saw Gorman's weigh in. Tempted.

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone see Gorman at the weigh-in? He looked in terrible shape. Like, ordinary fat bloke who needs to get down the gym, kinda shape. I don't know anything about Lartey but he's nearly 5-1. Thoughts?

Got this at 5/1 in Paddy Power

normanoffside wrote: »

Got this at 5/1 in Paddy Power

Aye threw 20 quid on it through Betfair myself. Fingers crossed.

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

2/5 now

Anyone giving Vasquez any chance of upsetting Ritson later?

I've backed against Ritson a fair few times so maybe I've just got him all wrong but I always think if you box him and don't get drawn into a fight he's very beatable. Vasquez might be awkward enough to cause him some issues. Vasquez got robbed against Ohara Davies last year and he's generally a far tougher fight than his record suggests.

Think Ritson more than likely wins with a bit to spare but Vasquez points @ 11/1 just seems very big to me.

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone giving Vasquez any chance of upsetting Ritson later?

I've backed against Ritson a fair few times so maybe I've just got him all wrong but I always think if you box him and don't get drawn into a fight he's very beatable. Vasquez might be awkward enough to cause him some issues. Vasquez got robbed against Ohara Davies last year and he's generally a far tougher fight than his record suggests.

Think Ritson more than likely wins with a bit to spare but Vasquez points @ 11/1 just seems very big to me.

Your reasoning is good here. Vasquez's movement is bound to give Ritson problems, but I wonder can he keep it up for the 10 rounds? However, 11/1 is definitely worth a shot.