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Boxing betting thread

magma69

So in light of quite a few people cleaning up on Senchenko's victory against Hatton tonight, I thought it appropriate to make a thread where people discuss betting on boxing.

I think if you know your stuff, boxing is a much more predictable sport than the likes of football. I tend to bet a lot on outcomes with low payouts than betting a little on big upsets.

I think 3-1 odds at Boylesports on Guerrero by decision tonight is very good value. He's a far more polished boxer than Berto, who's been out of the ring for over a year now. Berto clearly has the size and power advantage but I think there's a good chance Guerrero will box clever to a decision.

Seeing as I won a nice amount on a Senchenko stoppage, I'm going to have another punt tonight.

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ASOT

Somehow he's ranked 15th by the WBA :pac:

Morrison J

normanoffside wrote: »

Anyone know much about him? You can get 4/1 in places

Very padded record by the sounds of it and he's completely out of shape. If there's a half decent price going for Allen via KO I'll take it I think.

https://twitter.com/RonLewis_/status/1320043159792082948?s=19
https://twitter.com/Hock1717/status/1320452606704209921?s=19

normanoffside

ASOT wrote: »

Dave looks to be fighting some lad lovejoy now according to his Instagram stories.

Anyone know much about him? You can get 4/1 in places

ASOT

Dave looks to be fighting some lad lovejoy now according to his Instagram stories.

Morrison J

normanoffside wrote: »

Fight is off

https://twitter.com/MichaelBensonn/status/1318580115392049153

FFS was too good to be true.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Fight is off

https://twitter.com/MichaelBensonn/status/1318580115392049153

Morrison J

megadodge wrote: »

Yours was an excellent call. Well reasoned out and you spotted the value.
I took your advice and got it at 12/1 on Betfair, but purely because of the iffy factor I just put a fiver on it, but I still feel robbed.

Unlucky.

Yeah only had a small stake on it myself purely because of the fact the fix would probably be in. You just knew when there was a big delay before reading out the cards that there was something dodgy going on. A real sickener.

Kaiser84

I also had Vazquez on points. 11/1 with Paddy Power. I reckon they might pay out still.

They paid me on Bertran vs Burns years ago.

Loma 10-12 for me later.

selectamatic

Must have been that big hometown crowd that swayed the judges :pac:

megadodge

Morrison J wrote: »

Moments like this you wonder why you bet on boxing at all. Robbed blind!

Yours was an excellent call. Well reasoned out and you spotted the value.
I took your advice and got it at 12/1 on Betfair, but purely because of the iffy factor I just put a fiver on it, but I still feel robbed.

Unlucky.

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone giving Vasquez any chance of upsetting Ritson later?

I've backed against Ritson a fair few times so maybe I've just got him all wrong but I always think if you box him and don't get drawn into a fight he's very beatable. Vasquez might be awkward enough to cause him some issues. Vasquez got robbed against Ohara Davies last year and he's generally a far tougher fight than his record suggests.

Think Ritson more than likely wins with a bit to spare but Vasquez points @ 11/1 just seems very big to me.

Moments like this you wonder why you bet on boxing at all. Robbed blind!

weemcd

Morrison J wrote: »

Also pretty much always back Loma in rounds 7-12 and doing the same tonight. Often comes in or comes very close. Pedraza and Campbell both hung on by a thread and are both seasoned 12 round fighters. Lopez only been past 7 rounds once and shouldn't get the slow paced fight he usually likes. 9/2 seems overpriced to me.

Good shout this. If Loma does what Loma does Lopez will be missing a lot and tiring once he hits those later rounds.

Morrison J

Also pretty much always back Loma in rounds 7-12 and doing the same tonight. Often comes in or comes very close. Pedraza and Campbell both hung on by a thread and are both seasoned 12 round fighters. Lopez only been past 7 rounds once and shouldn't get the slow paced fight he usually likes. 9/2 seems overpriced to me.

Morrison J

megadodge wrote: »

You're reasoning is good here. Vasquez's movement is bound to give Ritson problems, but I wonder can he keep it up for the 10 rounds? However, 11/1 is definitely worth a shot.

Yeah if it was 5 or 6/1 I wouldn't give it much of a look. Even if Vasquez does ok the rounds will probably be close enough that Ritson will get the decision regardless. 11/1 just jumps out to me as a price that's too big given Ritson's limitations though. Seems worth a small stab anyway.

megadodge

Morrison J wrote: »

Anyone giving Vasquez any chance of upsetting Ritson later?

I've backed against Ritson a fair few times so maybe I've just got him all wrong but I always think if you box him and don't get drawn into a fight he's very beatable. Vasquez might be awkward enough to cause him some issues. Vasquez got robbed against Ohara Davies last year and he's generally a far tougher fight than his record suggests.

Think Ritson more than likely wins with a bit to spare but Vasquez points @ 11/1 just seems very big to me.

Your reasoning is good here. Vasquez's movement is bound to give Ritson problems, but I wonder can he keep it up for the 10 rounds? However, 11/1 is definitely worth a shot.

Morrison J

Anyone giving Vasquez any chance of upsetting Ritson later?

I've backed against Ritson a fair few times so maybe I've just got him all wrong but I always think if you box him and don't get drawn into a fight he's very beatable. Vasquez might be awkward enough to cause him some issues. Vasquez got robbed against Ohara Davies last year and he's generally a far tougher fight than his record suggests.

Think Ritson more than likely wins with a bit to spare but Vasquez points @ 11/1 just seems very big to me.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

2/5 now

weemcd

normanoffside wrote: »

Got this at 5/1 in Paddy Power

Aye threw 20 quid on it through Betfair myself. Fingers crossed.

normanoffside

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone see Gorman at the weigh-in? He looked in terrible shape. Like, ordinary fat bloke who needs to get down the gym, kinda shape. I don't know anything about Lartey but he's nearly 5-1. Thoughts?

Got this at 5/1 in Paddy Power

normanoffside

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone see Gorman at the weigh-in? He looked in terrible shape. Like, ordinary fat bloke who needs to get down the gym, kinda shape. I don't know anything about Lartey but he's nearly 5-1. Thoughts?

Lartey arguably gave Dubuois his best fight.
Just saw Gorman's weigh in. Tempted.

weemcd

Anyone see Gorman at the weigh-in? He looked in terrible shape. Like, ordinary fat bloke who needs to get down the gym, kinda shape. I don't know anything about Lartey but he's nearly 5-1. Thoughts?

selectamatic

Hammer also tends to go the distance. Dave Allen definitely doesn't like long fights...

Morrison J

normanoffside wrote: »

Free money

Already into 4/6 so the money is definitely piling on alright.

normanoffside

Morrison J wrote: »

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Free money

Morrison J

Christian Hammer to beat Dave Allen @ 5/6 not a bad price. Surely Allen is a bigger underdog than that he's awful. Hammer got a number of higher level wins.

Morrison J

Niall Kennedy is 8/1 to beat Alen Babic. Definitely a price that won't last. Kennedy probably gets knocked out early but if he was to survive the first couple of rounds he's definitely got a chance. Babic extremely crude and one dimensional.

markc91

Absolute robbery in the first!

Morrison J

markc91 wrote: »

Anything for tonight?

The Sky card is tough to find value on really.

Don't have a bet on the main event as don't really see much value in it. Value might even be with the Povetkin KO even though I feel confident enough in Whyte given the shape he's in. Picking the method of victory is the issue. Could see Whyte putting it on Povetkin a bit late on but Povetkin is tough. Might put a small bet on Whyte in rounds 7-12 @ 3/1 just for interest but wouldn't be confident on it.

Taylor points @ 4/7 looks good. Persoon has had arm surgery, a failed move to the amateurs and hasn't had a full camp. Think the lack of crowd will help Katie as she tries to box more disciplined and wins wide on points.

Chris Kongo points @ 15/8. Very well matched fight and have seen loads of people taking Clay but think Kongo should hopefully be too big and able to find a rythm fighting on the outside to shade it on the cards.

Couple of bets I like in the States later on too. Like Porter to make a statement and get a knockout and think Gallimore is decent enough value against Fundora. Fundora is massive at the weight but very hittable. Gallimore can bang a bit and has been competitive at a higher level. Think he's a bit overpriced and worth a stab personally.

Porter via KO @ Evens

Gallimore via KO @ 7/2.

markc91

Anything for tonight?

Morrison J

langer91 wrote: »

Some shout cheers, she was 14/1 two rounds to go and 10/1 heading into the last, wish i had re-backed at those odds

Did not think we'd get the decision going our way in Eddie's back garden to be honest but very glad when we did. 5/2 was always going it be great value regardless.