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Significant Snow risk - Monday 29th/Tuesday 30th

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24567…12

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    #32
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    darkman2 wrote: »
    This is some serious stuff alright

    60_30.gif


    The UK is still expected to get snow on the GFS and on the other models btw as the front clears Eastward.


    Latest high res starting to show the gradual progession to snow by Monday evening

    10032918_2718.gif
    won't the colder uppers have already reached me by Monday morning? This is turning out to be an event do you think I could achieve anything


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    #33
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    owenc wrote: »
    won't the colder uppers have already reached me by Monday morning? This is turning out to be an event do you think I could achieve anything

    Yeah cos its all about you Owen isn't it? Never mind the other 6 million inhabitants on this island

    BTW, I really think it will only be rain for Coleraine...no pun intended! :)

    Derek


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    #34
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Owen c has a good chance seeing snow ,more than most people on here in my opinon , met eireann says winds will be mainly north to north west by end of week with snow at lower levels.
    Iron that scarf owen :)


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    #35
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,505 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    derekon wrote: »
    Yeah cos its all about you Owen isn't it? Never mind the other 6 million inhabitants on this island

    BTW, I really think it will only be rain for Coleraine...no pun intended! :)

    Derek
    derekon wrote: »
    OwenC, no hurt intended but I scan the posters to the left of the page and skip your posts at all times.

    You either skip by his posts or you don't :rolleyes:

    Owen no chance you'll see snow anyway as Derek called winter over about 5 weeks ago, didn't feel it early March mind you ;)
    Stopped clock etc :P


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    #36
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Latest HIRlAM (DMI strand) has the occlusion pushing a little more north:

    108942.gif

    with a greater risk of prolonged rain for the north and west. Should this happen (and there is every chance that it may not) then the warm sector would make further inroads over Ireland. The greatest chance of low lying snow (the important snow ;)) will always be on the northern flank of the occlusion, which could move through quite rapidly once it starts to push southeastwards as the low pulls away.

    Further updates needed of course as all could/will change.


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    #37
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Pangea wrote: »
    Owen c has a good chance seeing snow ,more than most people on here in my opinon , met eireann says winds will be mainly north to north west by end of week with snow at lower levels.
    Iron that scarf owen :)

    Well I don't expect snow for any part of Ireland except the mountains so if ye are expecting snow in Donegal or Northern Ireland, you might be disappointed. All I am saying is don't get your hopes up

    D


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    #38
    Speak Now
    Registered Users Posts: 8,505 ✭✭✭Speak Now


    owenc wrote: »
    Yes and in the heavier snow showers they may even lay!! Maxes around 3-4c and cloud will help this.. Chart above yay!! Haha rain England:P I'll probably regret that!

    Big change Owen, last week you were looking for the first 20c of the year:D

    I'm guessing the weather suits you perfect as long as it's not between 2c and 20c.:eek:

    A lover of extremes like mostof us weather nuts :cool:


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    #39
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »
    You either skip by his posts or you don't :rolleyes:

    Owen no chance you'll see snow anyway as Derek called winter over about 5 weeks ago, didn't feel it early March mind you ;)
    Stopped clock etc :P

    Thanks Jerry.


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    #40
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    So is the front heading north over no meeting cold air stalking and then pushing east like the one ni got a couple of weeks ago?? Gave hill behind me 1foot


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    #41
    wild handlin
    Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭wild handlin


    Su Campu wrote: »
    One thing is for sure - we're in for some beefy showers Tuesday and into Wednesday as cold advection takes place at mid/upper levels, with a sub -40°C pool of 500hPa air off to the northwest. Heavy falls of hail, rain and sleet, with some snow on mountains, and a good chance of lightning. Good mid/upper level shear may organise these showers into linear bands, with some strong convective gusts. May get a Level 1 from ESTOFEX's Monday night forecast.

    Excellent, I may get my first storm of the year!! :D


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    #42
    Birdnuts
    Registered Users Posts: 9,633 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Su Campu wrote: »
    One thing is for sure - we're in for some beefy showers Tuesday and into Wednesday as cold advection takes place at mid/upper levels, with a sub -40°C pool of 500hPa air off to the northwest. Heavy falls of hail, rain and sleet, with some snow on mountains, and a good chance of lightning. Good mid/upper level shear may organise these showers into linear bands, with some strong convective gusts. May get a Level 1 from ESTOFEX's Monday night forecast.

    Nice:)


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    #43
    JPA
    Registered Users Posts: 13,758 ✭✭✭✭JPA


    Why are the dates in the title so wrong? 27th is yesterday. :confused:


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    #44
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,637 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    if it gets as cold as predicted there will be snow at lower levels in the north on Tuesday night. This talk about snow being confined to the mountains is misleading:p


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    #45
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    nacho libre wrote: »
    if it gets as cold as predicted there will be snow at lower levels in the north on Tuesday night. This talk about snow being confined to the mountains is misleading:p

    Well met office have me down for 4c tomorrow and 3c on Tuesday there's bound to be some snow..,


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    #46
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    Met Eireann have downgraded their forecast overnight, taking out all their references to snow at low levels and replacing them with snow on mountains. Main problem will be rainfall amounts


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    #47
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Met Eireann have downgraded their forecast overnight, taking out all their references to snow at low levels and replacing them with snow on mountains. Main problem will be rainfall amounts
    eh? That's because you lot are further south fortunately it's been upgraded for southern Scotland,ni and nothern Ireland.. We were seeing 5c maxes for tomorrow now we are seeing 2-3c maxes and snow and there is more mention for lying snow.. Lol some folk over on nw are doing same as you because they got downgraded... Met uk will launch warning that should tell us what's happening


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    #48
    jambofc
    Registered Users Posts: 1,523 ✭✭✭jambofc


    here we go again :rolleyes:

    have to say the charts are all looking good for most of us to see some snow,now whether its stays on the ground is another thing,only bad point i can see is the colder upper 850's always seems to be just to the north west of us,exciting week ahead....

    Rtavn602.png

    Rtavn604.png

    Rtavn6017.png


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    #49
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    jambofc wrote: »
    here we go again :rolleyes:

    have to say the charts are all looking good for most of us to see some snow,now whether its stays on the ground is another thing,only bad point i can see is the colder upper 850's always seems to be just to the north west of us,exciting week ahead....

    Rtavn602.png

    Rtavn604.png

    Rtavn6017.png

    yes that looks good... cant imagine it being that tomorrow lol with todays temps.. and the cloud would stop them dropping tonight? haha look at this.. (coleraine forecast dosnt work and is like 6c warmer than everywhere else) http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/tomorrow.asp?zipcode=londonderry .... i wonder if thats what will happen tomorrow.. .temps 1c??? as that chart above shows 2c.. and its usually colder than that? i just dont beleive that this is going to be that cold... considering temps npw..


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    #50
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    There are several reason why I haven't been seeing reasons for getting excited...

    1) As I said it would Thursday, the GFS (which everyone seems to want to post as it gives the coldest scenario) is now downgrading its cold uppers for Ireland, with the -7 and lower now to the northwest of the country, unlike Thursday's runs, which had them well down further south. It's now more in line with the ECMWF and UKMO.

    2) People are talking about snow as this front moves northwards tonight. That would be the case if we were already in a cold airmass, but we're not. Temperatures in low double figures today, and most likely a cirrus shield tonight, will ensure positive numbers tonight and tomorrow morning.

    3) Whereas a -6°C upper may have given snow one or two months ago, that's not the case now. Stronger solar heating, and for longer, now means more turbulent mixing, higher boundary layers, and hence less chance for any snow to survive to low levels.

    4) Soil temperatures ranging from 7-9°C mean that you would need a very heavy and prolonged fall for any of it to stick. That's not going to happen, with showers Tuesday being fed down on a brisk northwest wind.

    5) Climate history. We just don't normally get disruptive snowfall at this time of the year. I know there will have been the odd exception through the years, but the overall probability of it happening is minimal.

    So I still stick (pun intended!) with some snow on mountains, but for the rest of us, nothing to get excited about. Rain will be the problem.


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    #51
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    Su Campu wrote: »
    Met Eireann have downgraded their forecast overnight, taking out all their references to snow at low levels and replacing them with snow on mountains. Main problem will be rainfall amounts

    Main problem is likely to be snow. But don't listen to me whatever you do.


    60_30.gif


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    #52
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    darkman2 wrote: »
    Main problem is likely to be snow. But don't listen to me whatever you do.


    60_30.gif


    i agree with you .. but i just cant find the sense to beleive that we will have 2-3c maxes tomorrow after all the cloud.... maybe rain will lower them... gfs has upgraded more on tuesday with max 1c... and rain far heavier!


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    #53
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    owenc wrote: »
    i agree with you .. but i just cant find the sense to beleive that we will have 2-3c maxes tomorrow after all the cloud.... maybe rain will lower them... gfs has upgraded more on tuesday with max 1c... and rain far heavier!

    As mentioned yester, rain, rather than snow could well be the problem, with even met eireann on board highlighting the risk of flooding:

    Tomorrow

    Tomorrow, rain will spread to remaining areas during the morning and afternoon, the rain heavy in many areas, with a risk of flooding, especially in parts of the east and south. Some sleet in places also, with a continuing risk of snow over mountains. However, northwestern coastal areas will have very small amounts, with some bright spells. Very cold and windy, with fresh to strong east to northeast winds. Max. 3 to 8 Celsius.

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

    Latest hi res has snow basically confined to the higher ground, with just the odd sleety bit at times at lower levels during any heavier bursts.

    Dust off them brollies folks!


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    #54
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    As mentioned yester, rain, rather than snow could well be the problem, with even met eireann on board highlighting the risk of flooding:

    Tomorrow

    Tomorrow, rain will spread to remaining areas during the morning and afternoon, the rain heavy in many areas, with a risk of flooding, especially in parts of the east and south. Some sleet in places also, with a continuing risk of snow over mountains. However, northwestern coastal areas will have very small amounts, with some bright spells. Very cold and windy, with fresh to strong east to northeast winds. Max. 3 to 8 Celsius.

    http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

    Latest hi res has snow basically confined to the higher ground, with just the odd sleety bit at times at lower levels during any heavier bursts.

    Dust off them brollies folks!

    for god sake did you not see tomorrows maxes for ni! 3c at best or maybe 4c.... and just because your getting 6c or something dosnt mean we wont get snow... Tuesday! :Tuesday cloudy with spells of sleet and snow, giving local moderate falls on high ground, some accumulations to low levels.


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    #55
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    owenc wrote: »
    for god sake did you not see tomorrows maxes for ni! 3c at best or maybe 4c.... and just because your getting 6c or something dosnt mean we wont get snow... Tuesday! :Tuesday cloudy with spells of sleet and snow, giving local moderate falls on high ground, some accumulations to low levels.

    As I mentioned yesterday, you will have a better chance of seeing some sleety type snow showers once the showery NW airflow kicks in after the main low pulls away to the east. If you get snow from the main frontal zone, then fair enough. I just hope you like rotten, wet, sloppy snow.


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    #56
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    As I mentioned yesterday, you will have a better chance of seeing some sleety type snow showers once the showery NW airflow kicks in after the main low pulls away to the east. If you get snow from the main frontal zone, then fair enough. I just hope you like rotten, wet, sloppy snow.

    i dont care if it lies i just want snow to fall... you do know that snow can fall at 2c... why is everyone going on as if we are getting 6c maxes... cant you lot not remember that there is such a place as up north were it is colder! snow does fall at 2c and it is indeed not slushy wet snow... the snow you are talking about falls at 6c.. and we are not getting that! if we were i would be moaning about a downgrade the way everyone else is... i wish someone in the far north was on here to give their view. Cant you see the 1c max in that chart above. WAIT over the winter didnt that met ie site downgrade everything because they were scared to post snow?? the met office seem very confident of it turning to snow tomorrow night.


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    #57
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,322 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Going to be an interesting few days, I'm going for rain to sleet to snow here with coverage eventually. But its going to be heavy wet snow so probably going to loose power again :(
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #58
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    owenc wrote: »
    if we were i would be moaning about a downgrade the way everyone else is... i wish someone in the far north was on here to give their view.

    There has been no 'downgrade' Owen, at least from me. What I said yesterday still stands today. Admittedly, my thoughts are based on the model outlooks, with a little scope for leverage due to the uncertainty of how this occlusion will bear down upon us.

    I may be very wrong, and I will accept that if I am. :)


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    #59
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    There has been no 'downgrade' Owen, at least from me. What I said yesterday still stands today. Admittedly, my thoughts are based on the model outlooks, with a little scope for leverage due to the uncertainty of how this occlusion will bear down upon us.

    I may be very wrong, and I will accept that if I am. :)

    how has there been a downgrade! the temps have dropped on the maps and the precipitation has moved further north over me.. ppl on nw from scotland are saying upgrades and the people from england are saying downgrades! cant someone just say the correct answer for the region. Did you read mt craniums forecast? i dont agree with his covering predictions but i agree about snow thats sure.


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    #60
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,633 ✭✭✭darkman2


    All I will say is that DE and Su Campu are not reading the charts properly in my view. We don't need sub -7 850 temps in a frontal situation for snow. We need sub -4C. Also other factors like evaporative cooling come into play esspecially at this time of year. My forecast is that most places (not all) will see snow at some stage and there is a risk of some very heavy snow for a time on Tuesday in the North and East in particular. Disruption is a real possibility on Tuesday in these areas. The forecast has not changed since the OP. It is still overnight Monday and Tuesday when the risk is.


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    #61
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I think most of us will only see a very wet and cold 2 to 3 days with plenty of rain, some sleet and snow mixed in but nothing staying on the ground with the exception of high ground and some areas up the north. From memory I think I can only remember twice or at most 3 times over my 35 years that snow has stuck properly in low ground areas this late in the year. A month ago this would have been great but its just far to late now and I want my 15C+ days now that ive goten used to the double figures again.


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