Significant Snow risk - Monday 29th/Tuesday 30th

irish1967

Must be going to snow......... I'm back

Min

Met Eireann and the forecast on the BBC give snow for tonight and tomorrow.

Met Eireann warned of heavy falls of snow particularly for higher ground but lower levels too will get some.

DOCARCH

I'm back too! Desk and time schedules cleared!

BBC back to snow for Dublin tomorrow. http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast/31?pageSize=10

Before you all scream automatic generated forecasts, etc., etc.....I know!

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

I thought the same and was looking forward to warm weather, not more warnings for snow...

that's what you get for turning your back on snow. that applies to all of you who yearn for spring:P

pistolpetes11

irish1967 wrote: »

Must be going to snow......... I'm back

Dust off that camera fella !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Dust off that camera fella !

That camera is a jinx !!!

munsterlegend

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann and the forecast on the BBC give snow for tonight and tomorrow.

Met Eireann warned of heavy falls of snow particularly for higher ground but lower levels too will get some.

where was that forecast on ME? on tv? is their website saying something different?

ninebeanrows

Its quite funny, some areas could see a huge amount of snow.

At the moment the heavy pulse that heads south during Tuesday looks abit to hit just in off the irish coast unfortunately for Dublin! But this can change.

Ulster looks like it could be smashed with over 20cms of snow more on mountains.

A truly remarkable weather event ahead. This is no April fools gag!

Vudgie

And so it continues.....

Lashing rain in Dublin all day and any potential snow has no chance of sticking but it would be interesting to see it.

At the very least we should all get a day or two of snow chasing which makes for good fun.

munsterlegend

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Its baltic here in Newbridge , working from home today and heat has been on since this morning , went to the shops for lunch there and its the first time in weeks I doubled back to the house to get the winter coat , also there is a very slight breeze but it would cut through you.

11 degrees in cork airport at 2pm! the sunny south west - still the colder air has yet to be dragged down until later this evening!

irishdub14

if the snow in dublin tomorrow is intense (:rolleyes:) and its cold, even if the ground is wet, it should stick easily.... it happend in february.....

Vudgie

irishdub14 wrote: »

if the snow in dublin tomorrow is intense and its cold(:rolleyes:), even if the ground is wet it should stick easily.... it happend in february.....

It did!? It stuck when we had a layer of ice, the wet stuff that fell through most of february did not stick on anything more than cars and roofs as far as I can remember.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Its quite funny, some areas could see a huge amount of snow.

At the moment the heavy pulse that heads south during Tuesday looks abit to hit just in off the irish coast unfortunately for Dublin! But this can change.

Ulster looks like it could be smashed with over 20cms of snow more on mountains.

A truly remarkable weather event ahead. This is no April fools gag!

The main issue for Dublin I reckon is wind direction. It's a good direction tomorrow night if you want snow!





Dew points are very steep between positive and negative!




Once that wind goes more Northerly or slightly to the Northwest tomorrow night I can see Dublin getting a good bit of snow aswell. It might be a longer transition compared to eleswhere but I expect flakes to be in there by tomorrow evening.


BTW - when people say snow cannot stick on wet ground, that is a myth. If snow continuously falls on wet ground esspecially if it is heavy the ground gets colder and colder. In a blizzard or heavy snow situation, and older forumers will know this, groud water can turn to ice very quickly and snow settles rapidly. The air temperatures will not be much above freezing, if at all, by tomorrow evening anyway.

Snowaddict

Didn't think that I would be posting regarding wintry weather again for quite some time... :eek:

However, I will admit that there is the risk of some significant heavy wet snowfall across several areas at altitude over the coming 40 Hours approximately.

I would still think that the main threat of disruption will be in the form of widespread surface ponding and localised flooding in some areas, but from about 28 Hours from now, all of the parameters are in place for a transition to snowfall, albeit of the heavy wet snow type.

The NAE Guidance is remaining very bullish regarding the threat of snowfall, becoming more widespread much later during Tuesday and correlating closely with the latest UKMO Warning Update.

With wet surfaces already, it is difficult to see the potential for widespread accumulations, however if the precipitation rates are high enough, accumulations could develop.

High Ground in central Ulster seems to be the most favoured at the moment.

The evolution, has striking similarities with that of the evolution of early March 1970, although the 850mb temperature profile appears to be slightly warmer this time around, with a slight difference in relation to the track and strength of the low.

It's certainly something to watch and while excessive rainfall totals are certain in the next while, the threat of accumulating snows cannot be ruled out:

March 1970 Evolution

Min

munsterlegend wrote: »

where was that forecast on ME? on tv? is their website saying something different?

No the same really, just they used heavy falls on the radio as 12:50 and warned about it on TV especially for the north and east.

cherryghost

I can confirm that the rain is turning to sleet here in north Longford

irishdub14

Vudgie wrote: »

It did!? It stuck when we had a layer of ice, the wet stuff that fell through most of february did not stick on anything more than cars and roofs as far as I can remember.

Yes, the last night we had snow in dublin (I think it was a saturday night in late feb) the ground was drenched from heavy rainfall and then all of a sudden it turned to heavy snow with large flakes, and in about 10 mins it started to build up. At least thats what happened in D13......

Deep Easterly

Continuous rain here in Galway varying between moderately heavy and moderately light. Seems to be getting windier too with some howling gusts. Temp on 4.2c

lucernarian

On that point of snow sticking on wet ground:

A few weeks ago, there was a snow event one Saturday night in the greater Dublin Area. I can't be arsed finding out what date, but much of Kildare and Meath and north Co. Dublin saw an inch or snow. That started off as heavy rain and I followed its progress during the evening turning to sleet and then becoming heavier and turning to wet snow. As the snow became more solid and "dry" it began to stick. It only took 5 minutes for that heavy snow to start sticking and it was barely below freezing at the time.

There were also reports of wet snow which managed to stick on cars etc. in Galway on 30th December and I remember thinking what difference a drop of half a degree would have made. Snow is capable of sticking to slush so if the temperatures are right, it will stick no matter how wet the ground is.

Having said, the model predictions still look too "perfect" to believe, given the number of LP systems that ended up having a warmer than expected cold sector or a myriad of other mishaps that we've seen on this forum too. I'll believe the < -7 degree 850mb temperatures when I actually see the measurements on Tuesday evening.

Edit: Irishdub14 has beat me to the point about that Saturday night!:p

thecretinhop

wow its got much colder in galway, bitter wind now defo drop in temp..

seamus

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

On that point of snow sticking on wet ground:

Would I be right in thinking that ground temperatures are key here? There's nothing to say that water cannot be liquid @ zero degrees for a certain amount of time. So if the ground temps are sufficiently cold (0 or less), then there's no reason why the snow should melt on the wet ground because the water is already at or below freezing.

Deep Easterly

thecretinhop wrote: »

wow its got much colder in galway, bitter wind now defo drop in temp..

Falling confirmed, 3.8c now. Turning increasingly nasty and dark out there.

km79

whats the story for rest on evening / night in Galway the rain seems to be dying??

Deep Easterly

km79 wrote: »

whats the story for rest on evening / night in Galway the rain seems to be dying??

A good chance of more rain with possible sleety bits thrown in later..

Discodog

There is a nasty lump of rain heading up the west coast. 3.9 c here.

DOCARCH

Whatever about the west, it's going a bit tropical here! Must be in a bit of warm sector?

8.5c DP 8.5c. Rain has eased to very light drizzle.

Speak Now

DOCARCH wrote: »

Whatever about the west, it's going a bit tropical here! Must be in a bit of warm sector?

8.5c DP 8.5c. Rain has eased to very light drizzle.

I see your 8.5 and raise you with 9.5c :pac:

Expect the Comeragh mts to see snow tomorrow but not any of us under 200m.

Deep Easterly

I don't think the met radar is performing that great for the west. 4.2mm in Claremorris between 1pm and 3pm yet the radar sequence only shows light spits at best in the region with none over SE Mayo!



Raining at a steady 3.0mm/ph here in north Galway despite what the radar shows.

pistolpetes11

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

On that point of snow sticking on wet ground:

A few weeks ago, there was a snow event one Saturday night in the greater Dublin Area. I can't be arsed finding out what date, but much of Kildare and Meath and north Co. Dublin saw an inch or snow. That started off as heavy rain and I followed its progress during the evening turning to sleet and then becoming heavier and turning to wet snow. As the snow became more solid and "dry" it began to stick. It only took 5 minutes for that heavy snow to start sticking and it was barely below freezing at the time.

There were also reports of wet snow which managed to stick on cars etc. in Galway on 30th December and I remember thinking what difference a drop of half a degree would have made. Snow is capable of sticking to slush so if the temperatures are right, it will stick no matter how wet the ground is.

Having said, the model predictions still look too "perfect" to believe, given the number of LP systems that ended up having a warmer than expected cold sector or a myriad of other mishaps that we've seen on this forum too. I'll believe the < -7 degree 850mb temperatures when I actually see the measurements on Tuesday evening.

Edit: Irishdub14 has beat me to the point about that Saturday night!:p

I think this is the event from a couple of weeks ago , started off as lashing rain but then it stuck

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Left Dublin CC (Hatch Street)at 2.45am and it was mainly drizzle, dropped off one of the lads to inchicore and it was more sleet , as I moved onto the Nass Road it was moderate snow , as I got to the Newlands Cross it was heavy snow all the way down as far as junction 11.

It was sticking on the Road signs and grass and hard shoulders but the roads looked very very wet .

When I got to Junction 11 (Killcullen ) it had begun to stick on the roads and was getting really heavy .

Visibility was down to about 30-40 mtrs and it was lashing it down , got to junction 12 newbridge and I have never seen snow so heavy in my life , went up through the curragh (which was totally white) and could only see 5 mtrs in front off me .

I am the second turn off when u enter the curragh from the N7 and when I tapped the break the jeep just slid on by my turn ! Had to put the Jeep in full 4WD to get up the little hill.

It was an amazingly interesting journey home :D:D

pistolpetes11

Bit of warming here in newbridge also 7.2 wit ha dp of 6.2