Significant Snow risk - Monday 29th/Tuesday 30th

darkman2

After looking at all the 12z charts there is a slight change it has to be said. It looks as though during Tuesday the Northern half of the country is most at risk from snowfall. The rain may clear from the Southern half for a time. But then the whole thing comes South again through Tuesday evening. And atm it does look very heavy and persistent through Tuesday night and into Wednesday. As MT says above the North and East in particular at that stage could well take something of a hammering with heavy snowfall forecast on all the models. The UKMO/GFS/ECM all seem to agree on this scenario now.

Dubs may have to wait till Tuesday evening but many others I think will see a few flakes before then esspecially the North and North Midlands based on the most recent charts.;)

Here is the UKMO for Tuesday night. Plenty of precipitation and sub 528 DAM




And GFS

Deep Easterly

I have only looked at the ECM tonight, but as far as I can see, the is no "very heavy and persistent snowfall" forecast. Bits of slushy wet snow at times during any heavier bursts at times yes.

alpha2zulu

The BBC Dublin 5 day for what its worth is now giving just heavy rain for Tuesday, high of +3, night low +1.

I'm flying Tuesday morning so really hopeing the Beeb are right this time!

JanuarySnowstor

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I have only looked at the ECM tonight, but as far as I can see, the is no "very heavy and persistent snowfall" forecast. Bits of slushy wet snow at times during any heavier bursts at times yes.

Just about every professional forecast I have seen on tv (BBC, Sky, RTE) all disagree with your comments. They ALL mention heavy snow risk for the East and Northeast of Ireland.
I honestly think the East will get a hammering Tuesday evening and night, though it will quickly melt on Wed morning. I think it snowed heavily in Dublin in early April about 5/6 years ago, it's a day early this time;)

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I have only looked at the ECM tonight, but as far as I can see, the is no "very heavy and persistent snowfall" forecast. Bits of slushy wet snow at times during any heavier bursts at times yes.

wet snow at lower levels still counts paddy1;)
i'm not expecting a foot of snow or anything. it would be nice just to see some snowfall. i wonder how much there will be on the mountain tops by the time it's all over.

Deep Easterly

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Just about every professional forecast I have seen on tv (BBC, Sky, RTE) all disagree with your comments. They ALL mention heavy snow risk for the East and Northeast of Ireland.
I honestly think the East will get a hammering Tuesday evening and night, though it will quickly melt on Wed morning. I think it snowed heavily in Dublin in early April about 5/6 years ago, it's a day early this time;)

I would agree with you, except for the fact that you are one of the first to disagree with professional forecasts when they don't agree with your own.

But I will take your word for it this time. Looking forward to seeing heavy snowfall/blizzards and the subsequent colossal disruptions on the news reports over the next 48hrs.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

wet snow at lower levels still counts paddy1;)
.

No, it does not

Next!

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Looking forward to seeing heavy snowfall/blizzards and the subsequent colossal disruptions on the news reports over the next 48hrs.

so you've finally dusted off the ramp

that's the spirit paddy1:pac:

WolfeIRE

The set up is marginal for most of the country but I would hedge on snowfall occuring Tuesday night primarily in South Ulster and the Northern half of Leinster, as well as high ground in North Munster and East Connaught.

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

The set up is marginal for most of the country but I would hedge on snowfall occuring Tuesday night primarily in South Ulster and the Northern half of Leinster, as well as high ground in North Munster and East Connaught.

Well since the thread title states that "significant snow" will occur also on Monday (tomorrow), I would say that a pure and utter white out across the country tomorrow is 100% possibility.

Looking forward to seeing scenes like this tomorrow across the length and breath of Ireland:

ninebeanrows

Looks really interesting for eastern areas during Tuesday evening/ Night.

Its going to be March 30th but sure what the heck!

Tomorrow afternoon/night just looks like a heavy cold rain event with snow beginning to fall in very hilly areas in the west by nightfall.

The second pulse into Tuesday evening Wednesday Am down the east looks very interesting though.


Ummmmmm




Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm



Ummm


Nice!

ninebeanrows

Throw into that the wind forecast and dare one mention the Bl

---

word?

darkman2

Did I see someone mention blizzard? - Could be but will be relatively shortlived.

pistolpetes11

Right lads I think I'l open a book on this event

Darkman2 1/1 to be correct (even money here as the charts and forecasts seem to be backing him up also MT seems to be on the snow side )

Su Campu 13/5 to be correct ( has a great knack of calling these situations , and with some high power weather forums members backing his/her views it will be a tight one )

I think DM2's price will get a lot shorter after I reads MT's update in the morning !

Place your bets

ninebeanrows

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Right lads I think I'l open a book on this event

Darkman2 1/1 to be correct (even money here as the charts and forecasts seem to be backing him up also MT seems to be on the snow side )

Su Campu 13/5 to be correct ( has a great knack of calling these situations , and with some high power weather forums members backing his/her views it will be a tight one )

I think DM2's price will get a lot shorter after I reads MT's update in the morning !

Place your bets

Right so, i'll dutch the 2 of them! sucker:D:D

John mac

I'm backing Con Sensus

a sprinkling that wont last long..

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

Did I see someone mention blizzard? - Could be but will be relatively shortlived.

Relative to what exactly?

darkman2

Latest hi res for Tuesday








Sweet dreams;)

cherryghost

I think I'm gonna put my money on Su Campu. No offence DM2, but he's called it right a lot of times.

Still, it would be a surprise

Deep Easterly

cherryghost wrote: »

I think I'm gonna put my money on Su Campu. No offence DM2, but he's called it right a lot of times.

Still, it would be a surprise

I'll go with Su. Simply because DM has a history of headline grabbing forecasts that more often than not have no substance behind them. The Wolf has been cried a bit too often I'm afraid.

Supercell

I'm going for 5 inches of heavy wet muck here on tuesday/wed and another snow day declared. Rapid thaw afterwards.

darkman2

I fully understand the personal attacks tbh. I mean fact is im right way more often then those two guys. How could I not be? I actuallly bother to make forecasts here and seen as they are bereft of the ability to read posts properly as I illustrated earlier there is no point in me getting into an argument with them. Interestingly I also got the same vitriol for forecasting the thunderstorms and floods last Summer in Dublin and I never resort to "headline grabbing" - the thread title and the OP is perfectly self explanatory and proportionate. Seems they will have to find out yet again. Oh I do enjoy those moments.


Of course it would not be necessary to say such things if they actually dealt with other posters in an adult like fashion instead of petulent, childish remarks. I have no problem whatsoever with anyone disagree with any forecast I make. It's the manner of DE and Su Campu that I take issue with. It's not very nice really.

darkman2

Supercell wrote: »

I'm going for 5 inches of heavy wet muck here on tuesday/wed and another snow day declared. Rapid thaw afterwards.

I suspect it will be the thick wet type of snow that will fall. I agree on the thaw. Down here once the sun gets to work at some stage on Wednesday lying snow won't last long. But you could get a few days of slush out of it :P

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

Of course it would not be necessary to say such things if they actually dealt with other posters in an adult like fashion instead of petulent, childish remarks. I have no problem whatsoever with anyone disagree with any forecast I make. It's the manner of DE and Su Campu that I take issue with. It's not very nice really.

What is not nice DM, is that you dismiss other members interpretations of forecast models as being 'wrong', and to say that your forecasts verify more often than other members of this forum is not only arrogant, but truly laughable.

darkman2

It's not laughable, it's true. And regular onlookers here know it is true. They also would know that all you two do is criticise other member's forecasts. You never make forecasts yourselves - ever. All you do is criticise. That is all you do. Furthermore your so ignorant that you are not criticising my actual forecast (which I don't have any problem with) but attacking the poster instead.

cherryghost

I dont mean any offence Darkman, not in any way. I respect your forecasts, and you're right, you have successfully predicted the forecasts over a lengthy period of time.

Su Campu has been more down to earth, and... pessimistic really, about any opportunities of severe weather fronts approaching. He has also successfully brushed of notions of events such as this and was 100% accurate in his predictions.

Either way, I respect both you very much on this forum.

darkman2

I know cherryghost. I don't mean you.:) When people try to make me out to be some sort of imbecile as DE and Su Campu have been trying to do (consistently undermining an appropriate forecast with sly remarks and innuendo from the 27th which in reality has changed very little if at all) that is going to tick people off. I don't do that. I don't see why they feel the need to do it.

Anyway everything is on track. Night!

Sierra Oscar

Keep the forecasts rolling in! No harm in having a few varying forecasts to get a number of different perspectives as to how an event may turn out . . .

nacho libre

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Keep the forecasts rolling in! No harm in having a few varying forecasts to get a number of different perspectives as to how an event may turn out . . .

agreed.
the fact there is even a chance of snow coming up to easter is something to savour- well, from my perspective it is:) i think it's safe to say some places lower down will see snow at some stage during this week. it's just a pity the upcoming weather wasn't happening back in January

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

I know cherryghost. I don't mean you.:) When people try to make me out to be some sort of imbecile as DE and Su Campu have been trying to do (consistently undermining an appropriate forecast with sly remarks and innuendo from the 27th which in reality has changed very little if at all) that is going to tick people off. I don't do that. I don't see why they feel the need to do it.

Anyway everything is on track. Night!

Wait a second, it was you who declared on Boards.ie that my interpretation of the what the models were showing was "wrong". I did not even acknowledge you before hand. Saying that I don't ever make a forecast when at the same time you dismissed it just shows what an ignorant person you really are. Nobody is trying to undermine you, at least I am not, but if you find that a forecast that does not totally agree with your own to be undermining then there is nothing I can do about that.