Significant Snow risk - Monday 29th/Tuesday 30th

darkman2

As in the other thread I was saying that this will have to be watched very closely and definately needs a dedicated thread at this stage. It looks certain at this stage that large parts of the UK will have some very disruptive snowfall on Tuesday and Ireland is likely to get some even to very low levels.





The models are just firming up on the track of this depression but crucially Ireland is always on the cold side. Inland areas are most likely to see disruptive snowfall from Monday night and it will be exceptionally cold for the time of year on Tuesday with max temperatures of no more then 2 or 3C and sleet and snow too.





This is probrably one of the most classic significant snow evolutions that Ireland can possibly get. The wind direction also means that Eastern coasts will also be at risk. So basically it will be raining up till Monday night quite widely (heavy rain) and then things will get wintry overnight and on Tuesday and disruption is probrably likely Tuesday morning.

derekon

darkman2 wrote: »

As in the other thread I was saying that this will have to be watched very closely and definately needs a dedicated thread at this stage. It looks certain at this stage that large parts of the UK will have some very disruptive snowfall on Tuesday and Ireland is likely to get some even to very low levels.





The models are just firming up on the track of this depression but crucially Ireland is always on the cold side. Inland areas are most likely to see disruptive snowfall from Monday night and it will be exceptionally cold for the time of year on Tuesday with max temperatures of no more then 2 or 3C and sleet and snow too.





This is probrably one of the most classic significant snow evolutions that Ireland can possibly get. The wind direction also means that Eastern coasts will also be at risk. So basically it will be raining up till Monday night quite widely (heavy rain) and then things will get wintry overnight and on Tuesday and disruption is probrably likely Tuesday morning.

derekon

derekon wrote: »

Major Ramp!!

owenc

oh yes!! hurray yay!! its a major upgrade with temps being 3c on monday instead of 6c.. and snow further north so we get a chance then after that 5c maxes and loads of snow showers!! i love this it better stay and not downgrade!

Deep Easterly

I would be more concerned at the possibility of flooding being the disruptive factor from this set up rather than from snow. Some prolonged rainfall in coastal counties of the south and east is forecast, with other areas also at risk depending on how far the occlusion penetrates north and how active it remains overland.

Supercell

One last snow day before i move back to the city, i hope so!

Deep Easterly

Supercell wrote: »

One last snow day before i move back to the city, i hope so!

Had enough of the hills have we? I don't blame you.

Supercell

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Had enough of the hills have we? I don't blame you.

Its nice when you have an inch or so of fluffy stuff, but a foot of lead like slops is another matter.

Su Campu

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I would be more concerned at the possibility of flooding being the disruptive factor from this set up rather than from snow. Some prolonged rainfall in coastal counties of the south and east is forecast, with other areas also at risk depending on how far the occlusion penetrates north and how active it remains overland.

I agree, I think the thread's title's a tad alarmist, and "very disruptive snowfall" a gross exaggeration. Maybe the mountains of Scotland and the Pennines yes, but I don't see much chance of any disruption here, some lying snow on mountains maybe, but at lower levels any snow, if any, will be short lived and will not stick. As DE said, the rainfall's going to be the problem.

owenc

Su Campu wrote: »

I agree, I think the thread's title's a tad alarmist, and "very disruptive snowfall" a gross exaggeration. Maybe the mountains of Scotland and the Pennines yes, but I don't see much chance of any disruption here, some lying snow on mountains maybe, but at lower levels any snow, if any, will be short lived and will not stick. As DE said, the rainfall's going to be the problem.

awww here we go again.. everything being downgraded...:( 3c maxes i do think is cold enough for snow to lie and i do think the hills here are near certain to get some snow lying on them...

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

I agree, I think the thread's title's a tad alarmist, and "very disruptive snowfall" a gross exaggeration.

The thread title is correct. If you bothered to read the OP you would notice I never mentioned "very disruptive snowfall" for Ireland.

Maybe the mountains of Scotland and the Pennines yes,

IMO this is wrong.

but I don't see much chance of any disruption here,

There is a risk of significant snowfall and when that happens there is always the risk of disruption.

some lying snow on mountains maybe, but at lower levels any snow, if any, will be short lived and will not stick. As DE said, the rainfall's going to be the problem.

Rainfall won't be a major issue even though it may be heavy at times.


That is my take on the charts at any rate.

owenc

darkman2 wrote: »

The thread title is correct. If you bothered to read the OP you would notice I never mentioned "very disruptive snowfall" for Ireland.




IMO this is wrong.




There is a risk of significant snowfall and when that happens there is always the risk of disruption.




Rainfall won't be a major issue even though it may be heavy at times.


That is my take on the charts at any rate.

its more than certain that snow will fall to low levels here anyway and lie most likely on the hills maybe giving them a couple of inches... but i didnt think we were likely to see snow lie on low levels is that what your saying? theres a high risk?

darkman2

owenc wrote: »

its more than certain that snow will fall to low levels here anyway and lie most likely on the hills maybe giving them a couple of inches... but i didnt think we were likely to see snow lie on low levels is that what your saying? theres a high risk?

I would not say it's a "high risk" risk but it is a risk. It depends on how things shape up in the next 48hrs - for accumulations at low levels this time of year you need heavy and persistent snow. That may happen but there is still time left for things to change either way.

owenc

darkman2 wrote: »

I would not say it's a "high risk" risk but it is a risk. It depends on how things shape up in the next 48hrs - for accumulations at low levels this time of year you need heavy and persistent snow. That may happen but there is still time left for things to change either way.

yea we shall see but im expecting what ive been waiting for, for ages and that is sunshine in temps of around 4-5c and snow showers passing by... love that... and hopefully it comes and id say at some point the hill behind me will have a covering maybe a couple of inches... this year everytime it has snowed it has had at least a couple of inches and that is only from passing showers shows how much heavier the showers are up higher.. down here those showers would only really amount to couple of cms..

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

The thread title is correct. If you bothered to read the OP you would notice I never mentioned "very disruptive snowfall" for Ireland.

And if you'd bothered to read my post correctly you'd see that I never said you'd mentioned it for Ireland, it was for the UK. But you did say disruptive snowfall for Ireland, leaving out the "very" - which I don't agree with. That's my take on the situation.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

I would not say it's a "high risk" risk but it is a risk. It depends on how things shape up in the next 48hrs - for accumulations at low levels this time of year you need heavy and persistent snow.

Downgrade already!

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

rainfall's going to be the problem.

ECM tonight has a lot of rain falling over a 48hrs period over many parts of the east and south, heaviest towards the coast. This needs watching, not only for the flooding risk it poses for prone areas, but also it looks to be driven by a cold and sustained NE wind which will just add to the discomfort.

Deep Easterly

owenc wrote: »

yea we shall see but im expecting what ive been waiting for, for ages and that is sunshine in temps of around 4-5c and snow showers passing by... love that... and hopefully it comes and id say at some point the hill behind me will have a covering maybe a couple of inches... this year everytime it has snowed it has had at least a couple of inches and that is only from passing showers shows how much heavier the showers are up higher.. down here those showers would only really amount to couple of cms..

I really hope for your sake that you see something Owen, but I honestly can't see it. Maybe later as the showery NW flow becomes established as you would be better placed that the rest of us mere folk.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

And if you'd bothered to read my post correctly you'd see that I never said you'd mentioned it for Ireland, it was for the UK. But you did say disruptive snowfall for Ireland, leaving out the "very" - which I don't agree with. That's my take on the situation.

You said that I mentioned "very disruptive snowfall" without mentioning the UK. Thus you are implying I said that for Ireland which I did not. You really should read the OP before criticising.

Im quite confident with that forecast and have absolutely no issue with you disagreeing or anything like that. Life would be boring if we all agreed.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

Downgrade already!

No downgrade whatsoever.

snow ghost

I wouldn't wish floods on any part of the country, but our rivers and loughs could do with 'some' water, they are very low... we'll be in drought the way it is going.

I think Darkman's OP sentence, was open to a double meaning - that's the internet for you - I initially read it that Ireland is also likely to get some 'very disruptive snowfall', although I think he meant likely to also get some snow... easy mistake to make as it could mean either:

"the UK will have some very disruptive snowfall on Tuesday and Ireland is likely to get some even to very low levels."

Owen, you may be happy to know that I saw falling and lying snow in Britain in May a few years back... didn't last long, but where there's hope!

Deep Easterly

snow ghost wrote: »

I wouldn't wish floods on any part of the country, but our rivers and loughs could do with 'some' water, they are very low... we'll be in drought the way it is going.

and it looks like us westerners will continue to see drought conditions for another while yet with only measly amounts of rain forecast for the foreseeable. The land around would really benefit from some heavy, warm rainfall is just to spark some colour into it. Sick of looking at lifeless fields and anemic fauna now.

I am keeping an eye on this occlusion to see if it will penetrate its influence more northwards than is showing, but I am not hopeful yet.

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

You said that I mentioned "very disruptive snowfall" without mentioning the UK. Thus you are implying I said that for Ireland which I did not. You really should read the OP before criticising.

Darkman you're wrong, I never said that, for me you clearly said "very" applied to the UK, to which I said maybe on the Scottish mountains and Pennines. I never said you meant it for Ireland. Now let's not hijack the thread with to and froing. You reckon there'll be more snow than I do....end of.

snow ghost

Deep Easterly wrote: »

and it looks like us westerners will continue to see drought conditions for another while yet with only measly amounts of rain forecast for the foreseeable. The land around would really benefit from some heavy, warm rainfall is just to spark some colour into it. Sick of looking at lifeless fields and anemic fauna now.

I am keeping an eye on this occlusion to see if it will penetrate its influence more northwards than is showing, but I am not hopeful yet.

Deep,

I agree - I'd like to see some more green around... was down around lough mask recently and water levels are very low and its, I think in part, fed by what is supposidly the wettest part of Ireland - the Partry mountains.

The West could be a desert by Summer! :eek: Wonder how much camels cost?

Deep Easterly

snow ghost wrote: »

The West could be a desert by Summer! :eek: Wonder how much camels cost?

This drought is becoming notable alright, only yesterday whilst taking the dog on an afternoon walk I stumbled upon this site:



Didn't spot it until it was closing in on us. Got a quick snap and then we ran like boyo :eek: The west is the new Savanna.

Pangea

Thread title is a bit confusing alrite, is there a risk of significant snow, or is there a significant risk of snow :P
Anyways dont forget that its nearly april , snow would melt by the time ur having your tea and toast, but lets hope I am wrong.
Eagleton was saying you will have to go back to 1988 easter the last time we had such a wintry easter, hes nearly talking as if it already happened.
Good man eagle.

Min

The last thing farmers want is snow and ice after the long cold winter and grass growth has been near non existent. The weather has been very costly but at least the cold shouldn't last too long, a cold snap more than anything else.

Just realised this winter I can see the Wicklow mountains from where I live, over some hills to the east of me.
They kept their snow so it was waiting for more.....

darkman2

Lots of snow.;) Night!

Su Campu

One thing is for sure - we're in for some beefy showers Tuesday and into Wednesday as cold advection takes place at mid/upper levels, with a sub -40°C pool of 500hPa air off to the northwest. Heavy falls of hail, rain and sleet, with some snow on mountains, and a good chance of lightning. Good mid/upper level shear may organise these showers into linear bands, with some strong convective gusts. May get a Level 1 from ESTOFEX's Monday night forecast.

owenc

Su Campu wrote: »

One thing is for sure - we're in for some beefy showers Tuesday and into Wednesday as cold advection takes place at mid/upper levels, with a sub -40°C pool of 500hPa air off to the northwest. Heavy falls of hail, rain and sleet, with some snow on mountains, and a good chance of lightning. Good mid/upper level shear may organise these showers into linear bands, with some strong convective gusts. May get a Level 1 from ESTOFEX's Monday night forecast.

Yes and in the heavier snow showers they may even lay!! Maxes around 3-4c and cloud will help this.. Chart above yay!! Haha rain England:P I'll probably regret that!

darkman2

This is some serious stuff alright




The UK is still expected to get snow on the GFS and on the other models btw as the front clears Eastward.


Latest high res starting to show the gradual progession to snow by Monday evening

owenc

darkman2 wrote: »

This is some serious stuff alright




The UK is still expected to get snow on the GFS and on the other models btw as the front clears Eastward.


Latest high res starting to show the gradual progession to snow by Monday evening

won't the colder uppers have already reached me by Monday morning? This is turning out to be an event do you think I could achieve anything

derekon

owenc wrote: »

won't the colder uppers have already reached me by Monday morning? This is turning out to be an event do you think I could achieve anything

Yeah cos its all about you Owen isn't it? Never mind the other 6 million inhabitants on this island

BTW, I really think it will only be rain for Coleraine...no pun intended!

Derek

Pangea

Owen c has a good chance seeing snow ,more than most people on here in my opinon , met eireann says winds will be mainly north to north west by end of week with snow at lower levels.
Iron that scarf owen

Speak Now

derekon wrote: »

Yeah cos its all about you Owen isn't it? Never mind the other 6 million inhabitants on this island

BTW, I really think it will only be rain for Coleraine...no pun intended!

Derek

derekon wrote: »

OwenC, no hurt intended but I scan the posters to the left of the page and skip your posts at all times.

You either skip by his posts or you don't :rolleyes:

Owen no chance you'll see snow anyway as Derek called winter over about 5 weeks ago, didn't feel it early March mind you
Stopped clock etc :P

Deep Easterly

Latest HIRlAM (DMI strand) has the occlusion pushing a little more north:



with a greater risk of prolonged rain for the north and west. Should this happen (and there is every chance that it may not) then the warm sector would make further inroads over Ireland. The greatest chance of low lying snow (the important snow ) will always be on the northern flank of the occlusion, which could move through quite rapidly once it starts to push southeastwards as the low pulls away.

Further updates needed of course as all could/will change.

derekon

Pangea wrote: »

Owen c has a good chance seeing snow ,more than most people on here in my opinon , met eireann says winds will be mainly north to north west by end of week with snow at lower levels.
Iron that scarf owen

Well I don't expect snow for any part of Ireland except the mountains so if ye are expecting snow in Donegal or Northern Ireland, you might be disappointed. All I am saying is don't get your hopes up

D

Speak Now

owenc wrote: »

Yes and in the heavier snow showers they may even lay!! Maxes around 3-4c and cloud will help this.. Chart above yay!! Haha rain England:P I'll probably regret that!

Big change Owen, last week you were looking for the first 20c of the year:D

I'm guessing the weather suits you perfect as long as it's not between 2c and 20c.:eek:

A lover of extremes like mostof us weather nuts :cool:

derekon

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

You either skip by his posts or you don't :rolleyes:

Owen no chance you'll see snow anyway as Derek called winter over about 5 weeks ago, didn't feel it early March mind you
Stopped clock etc :P

Thanks Jerry.

owenc

So is the front heading north over no meeting cold air stalking and then pushing east like the one ni got a couple of weeks ago?? Gave hill behind me 1foot

wild handlin

Su Campu wrote: »

One thing is for sure - we're in for some beefy showers Tuesday and into Wednesday as cold advection takes place at mid/upper levels, with a sub -40°C pool of 500hPa air off to the northwest. Heavy falls of hail, rain and sleet, with some snow on mountains, and a good chance of lightning. Good mid/upper level shear may organise these showers into linear bands, with some strong convective gusts. May get a Level 1 from ESTOFEX's Monday night forecast.

Excellent, I may get my first storm of the year!!

Birdnuts

Su Campu wrote: »

One thing is for sure - we're in for some beefy showers Tuesday and into Wednesday as cold advection takes place at mid/upper levels, with a sub -40°C pool of 500hPa air off to the northwest. Heavy falls of hail, rain and sleet, with some snow on mountains, and a good chance of lightning. Good mid/upper level shear may organise these showers into linear bands, with some strong convective gusts. May get a Level 1 from ESTOFEX's Monday night forecast.

Nice:)

JPA

Why are the dates in the title so wrong? 27th is yesterday.

nacho libre

if it gets as cold as predicted there will be snow at lower levels in the north on Tuesday night. This talk about snow being confined to the mountains is misleading:p

owenc

nacho libre wrote: »

if it gets as cold as predicted there will be snow at lower levels in the north on Tuesday night. This talk about snow being confined to the mountains is misleading:p

Well met office have me down for 4c tomorrow and 3c on Tuesday there's bound to be some snow..,

Su Campu

Met Eireann have downgraded their forecast overnight, taking out all their references to snow at low levels and replacing them with snow on mountains. Main problem will be rainfall amounts

owenc

Su Campu wrote: »

Met Eireann have downgraded their forecast overnight, taking out all their references to snow at low levels and replacing them with snow on mountains. Main problem will be rainfall amounts

eh? That's because you lot are further south fortunately it's been upgraded for southern Scotland,ni and nothern Ireland.. We were seeing 5c maxes for tomorrow now we are seeing 2-3c maxes and snow and there is more mention for lying snow.. Lol some folk over on nw are doing same as you because they got downgraded... Met uk will launch warning that should tell us what's happening

jambofc

here we go again :rolleyes:

have to say the charts are all looking good for most of us to see some snow,now whether its stays on the ground is another thing,only bad point i can see is the colder upper 850's always seems to be just to the north west of us,exciting week ahead....

owenc

jambofc wrote: »

here we go again :rolleyes:

have to say the charts are all looking good for most of us to see some snow,now whether its stays on the ground is another thing,only bad point i can see is the colder upper 850's always seems to be just to the north west of us,exciting week ahead....

yes that looks good... cant imagine it being that tomorrow lol with todays temps.. and the cloud would stop them dropping tonight? haha look at this.. (coleraine forecast dosnt work and is like 6c warmer than everywhere else) http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/tomorrow.asp?zipcode=londonderry .... i wonder if thats what will happen tomorrow.. .temps 1c??? as that chart above shows 2c.. and its usually colder than that? i just dont beleive that this is going to be that cold... considering temps npw..

Su Campu

There are several reason why I haven't been seeing reasons for getting excited...

1) As I said it would Thursday, the GFS (which everyone seems to want to post as it gives the coldest scenario) is now downgrading its cold uppers for Ireland, with the -7 and lower now to the northwest of the country, unlike Thursday's runs, which had them well down further south. It's now more in line with the ECMWF and UKMO.

2) People are talking about snow as this front moves northwards tonight. That would be the case if we were already in a cold airmass, but we're not. Temperatures in low double figures today, and most likely a cirrus shield tonight, will ensure positive numbers tonight and tomorrow morning.

3) Whereas a -6°C upper may have given snow one or two months ago, that's not the case now. Stronger solar heating, and for longer, now means more turbulent mixing, higher boundary layers, and hence less chance for any snow to survive to low levels.

4) Soil temperatures ranging from 7-9°C mean that you would need a very heavy and prolonged fall for any of it to stick. That's not going to happen, with showers Tuesday being fed down on a brisk northwest wind.

5) Climate history. We just don't normally get disruptive snowfall at this time of the year. I know there will have been the odd exception through the years, but the overall probability of it happening is minimal.

So I still stick (pun intended!) with some snow on mountains, but for the rest of us, nothing to get excited about. Rain will be the problem.

darkman2

Su Campu wrote: »

Met Eireann have downgraded their forecast overnight, taking out all their references to snow at low levels and replacing them with snow on mountains. Main problem will be rainfall amounts

Main problem is likely to be snow. But don't listen to me whatever you do.