Significant Snow risk - Monday 29th/Tuesday 30th

Supercell

I remember when i was a nipper living in Dalkey (Dublin to the non dubs) in May there was a heavy prolonged snow shower that was actually beginning to settle as it died out.
Dalkey is right by the sea. Point is if there is heavy sneachta for a while..it can settle. Heck early this year here there was slushy crap that literally coated everything ..but then it got colder a couple of days later and it all went ridiculous.

The pic below is after they ploughed the road here in Feb..still fupping silly amounts of snow, heavy wet stuff...was pretty tho



It was only possible to walk in the tractor tracks here, terrible stuff altogether!



Hopefully we will see nowt like these terrible conditions again

Deep Easterly

darkman2 wrote: »

It's not laughable, it's true. And regular onlookers here know it is true. They also would know that all you two do is criticise other member's forecasts. You never make forecasts yourselves - ever. All you do is criticise. That is all you do. Furthermore your so ignorant that you are not criticising my actual forecast (which I don't have any problem with) but attacking the poster instead.

This is the kind of codswallop we are dealing with. Every line smacks contradiction.

Danno

Lads, TWO is right this way... ---> HERE :rolleyes:

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

I know cherryghost. I don't mean you.:) When people try to make me out to be some sort of imbecile as DE and Su Campu have been trying to do (consistently undermining an appropriate forecast with sly remarks and innuendo from the 27th which in reality has changed very little if at all) that is going to tick people off. I don't do that. I don't see why they feel the need to do it.

Anyway everything is on track. Night!

Darkman, what are you on? Please quote where I made you out as an imbecile, please quote my sly remarks an innuendo? Fact is, you're trying to accuse us of the very things that you do yourself. You say I don't make forecasts - I just criticise others. What a joke. Despite what the models are saying (mostly the GFS, that we're in for a pasting), I'm going against them for the reasons I outlined yesterday. It looks like I'll be wrong, but we won't know till Wednesday. And if I am wrong, so what, no big deal, I'll admit it. None of us here work for ME so if our forecasts are wrong then it's no big deal - no-one gets hurt. We all log on here cos its our hobby, nothing else. We're all entitled to post our opinions, using whatever methods we believe in. I respect your forecasts, but if I disagree with them, you take it as a personal attack.

I don't know why you do so, but you have done yourself no favours. And I also believe you'll brush this post aside and not come up with the quotes I asked for - because there are none. But if anyone believes otherwise then please help him out.

Now back to the weather.

DOCARCH

Cold rain here this morning. SE wind. Sort of surprised how cold it is. 4.8c atm and temp has dropped slowly and steadily overnight continuing to fall after the start of the rain. DP 4.3c

M.T. Cranium

What I'm going to post here may be more helpful to visitors than regulars who will tend to know most of the following.

The rain (initially) is associated with low pressure moving ENE towards the south coast of Ireland today. This low centre will be twinned with a somewhat stronger low in the Biscay region that will move into France late today. Meanwhile, the northern low will track somewhat inland and likely across Wicklow late tonight, into the Irish Sea by mid-day tomorrow and through north Wales and northern England later Tuesday and into Wednesday.

This low is going to become dominant as the French low fills in upon reaching land, and will be surrounded by a deep layer of moisture and temperatures not very much above freezing. This is causing the forecast uncertainty but in similar past situations it has snowed at least down to 100m above sea level and the wind direction by Tuesday will be parallel to the coast so that eastern Ireland won't be getting a long fetch of warmed up low-level air but the cold, moist air crossing narrow channels between Ulster and Scotland and otherwise having its origins over land. This will tend to keep it very close to the freezing point especially if snow develops in places like eastern Ulster and southern Scotland, northern England to chill the flow of air further.

So it is partly a domino effect, as snow falls upstream in this NE to N wind flow, it raises the chances for snow to fall further south along the eastern side of Ireland. Now if you look at western Ireland, the flow would be coming more from a NNW direction and obviously from an Atlantic source, but this air flow is actually colder at higher elevations so it's a case of assessing how much the surface 1,000 metres of the air flow might be modified by crossing the 8-10 C waters of the nearby Atlantic. My thinking is, not very much modification in this instance because of the very cold flow, so we are likely to hear about heavy snow and hail showers in the western counties, heavier where the ground is rising from north to south (as in parts of Mayo for example). I don't know exactly where Nacho Libre lives but from past reports, I am optimistic for him to see some heavy wintry showers. Someone like Deep Easterly who lives closer to Galway (I believe) may see more of a mix of rain, hail and snow because he's on the downsloping side of the terrain from a northerly flow, but when the winds come around more NW'ly as they may on Wednesday then you have different upslope and downslope conditions and this affects who gets the heavier showery potential.

Bottom line is this -- while this snowfall potential could bust and just turn into hill snow, everything seems on the right side of marginal to produce some heavy bursts of snow and this tendency will be spreading at first from north to south and from higher to lower elevations, then it will tend to be more of a day-night question, but I am saying in the boards.ie forecast (fingers crossed tightly here) that 5-10 cms could fall in parts of eastern Ireland on Tuesday and Wednesday. There could be a very heavy fall on the Wicklow and Dublin mountains, 20-30 cms would be quite plausible there.

darkman2

Thanks MT.


Yes id go go along with that. The charts have not changed all that much overnight. The hi res UKMO is very impressive for the North and East esspecially considering the time of year. The GFS is still meandering around where it was yesterday aswell. Those in the Greater Dublin area will have to wait until the wind turns Northerly and not onshore for snow to begin to fall and this looks like tomorrow evening with snow tomorrow night and that looks like it could be heavy. Higher ground - well it's a given there. Elesewhere more showery from Tomorrow evening but snow is forecast with this too. I think many will get a shock, regardless of snow, of just how raw it will feel over the next few days. Very wintry.


By tomorrow evening temperatures hovering near freezing over alot of the country. A very steep thermal gradient with 7C on the Irish Sea and in the Southwest.



Weatheronline

jambofc

bbc forecast just now on the tv has snow over me for nearly 24 hrs solid from tonight

Su Campu

Just to put a name to the face, the German Wetterpate have named this depression Kerstin!

r3nu4l

I rarely venture in here but the forum mods don't seem to be around. Note to various posters in this thread. Cool your heels for a while! You know who you are, give it a rest and put the personal stuff to one side. Thanks

Mods, your call as to whether to take action on any of the posts in this thread that deserve it.

arctictree

Looking cold over the next few days. Might have more snow here, although I thought we were finished for the year!

owenc

no! im not getting ecited.. its sunny here... and 4c.. and rising theres no way! how depressing.. after waiting all weekend for this..

MrDarcy

On a more positive note, I remember being up all night on this forum in January last and the excitement of the predictions coming as the whole country was at a standstill in -10 degrees or at least where I was in Dublin...

Discodog

According to metcheck it is snowing heavily here in Galway - not !.

No wonder people don't trust forecasts.

YrNo forecast for Galway has changed a lot with rain extended into tomorrow whereas last night they were showing Tues as dry.

owenc

its 4.7c here wawa! it wont take long before the nearest station records 7c and then we are a gonner... oh why do these snow events always have to downgrade on me its not fair.. i waited all bloody weekend

Discodog

Simples the snow gods are listening to the prayers of people who have just received horrific ESB bills !. We do not want any more snow !

Danno

This is a complicated system, with at least two cores. This is a very difficult situation to forecast. Now add in the threat of snowfall and it becomes extremly difficult.

If this system was involving two air masses, one at 10c and the other at 5c, it would be more straight forward - rain everywhere!

But this system has two airmasses. one at 5c and the other at 0c - snow here, rain there... but where??? Add this to the fact that there are twin low pressure centres rambling around off the south coast mixing these airmasses and people certainly have their work cut out for them.

Today is a day the Public Service in the Met Office have to work extra extra hard!

Discodog

I gathered that by the fact that the rain is moving ssw to nne & the wind is blowing in pretty much the opposite direction.

Loads of rain coming up from the south so shannon radar should go down any minute !

owenc

Discodog wrote: »

I gathered that by the fact that the rain is moving ssw to nne & the wind is blowing in pretty much the opposite direction.

Loads of rain coming up from the south so shannon radar should go down any minute !

Is anyone under this rain .. Is it heavy?? I want it to be so it can drop the temps and if it turns to snow it won't have a problem lying on the wet ground

Discodog

Nah not heavy at the moment but there are heavier bursts in it & the rain to the South is heavier.

owenc

Discodog wrote: »

Nah not heavy at the moment but there are heavier bursts in it & the rain to the South is heavier.

K thanks shall just see how his first bit impacts on temps

Supercell

13.2mm rain so far , current temp 3.9°C, probably snowing up on the higher Wicklow peaks already.

Lumi

Very heavy rain/sleet mix falling on Galway for the last hour or so & temp steady at 4.4c. A thoroughly miserable Monday !!

owenc

This so sh1t and depressing... one of the stations near me is saying friggen 7c!!! like what the hell!! this is obiously happening because of me... its 5c.. here but it wont be long before we reach that if this sh1t rain dosnt hurry up... and now its going to be raining tomorrow and 4c.. more like 7c..and no snow tonight either anymore.. what a stinker.:(

km79

Supercell wrote: »

13.2mm rain so far , current temp 3.9°C, probably snowing up on the higher Wicklow peaks already.

where can u see how many mm of rain has fallen so far?

sunbabe08

snow?? ha!!! i see and hear lots of rain in cork

Min

arctictree wrote: »

Looking cold over the next few days. Might have more snow here, although I thought we were finished for the year!

I thought the same and was looking forward to warm weather, not more warnings for snow...

pistolpetes11

owenc wrote: »

This so sh1t and depressing... one of the stations near me is saying friggen 7c!!! like what the hell!! this is obiously happening because of me... its 5c.. here but it wont be long before we reach that if this sh1t rain dosnt hurry up... and now its going to be raining tomorrow and 4c.. more like 7c..and no snow tonight either anymore.. what a stinker.:(

Give it a chance before you throw the toys out of the pram fella !

I was thinking from tonight onwards was when its supposed to start to get interesting

Speak Now

owenc wrote: »

its 4.7c here wawa! it wont take long before the nearest station records 7c and then we are a gonner... oh why do these snow events always have to downgrade on me its not fair.. i waited all bloody weekend

:eek: :eek:

thetonynator

why can't it just be warm and dry for once???