Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Saturday, 16 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cold with scattered wintry showers, mostly over higher terrain and more likely in north and around higher parts of south Leinster. Some morning frosts inland with current (0600h) readings of -1 at several locations. Winds north-northeast 50-70 km/hr adding some chill to highs of 6 to 9 C. Sunny breaks more frequent near south and west coasts. Snow could fall on higher slopes such as the Dublin and Wicklow hills, further amounts of 1-3 cm possible.

TONIGHT ... Clearing except for some low cloud near north coasts, lows reaching -3 C inland with sharp frosts, -1 to +2 C coastal and urban areas except 4-6 C north coast.

SUNDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, except for mostly cloudy skies in parts of north, just a few isolated showers there, and turning a bit milder as winds back to westerly at about 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 9-12 C.

MONDAY and TUESDAY will likely stay dry and remain quite cool with slight frosts in some areas, and highs 10-13 C. Winds will fall off to light by later Monday and should remain light on Tuesday as the core of high pressure drifts east. Just the odd isolated shower in Connacht and Ulster but only slight or trace accumulations. Expect a sharp ground frost each morning but Tuesday could be as cold as -4 C in a few locations.

WEDNESDAY (into THURSDAY) may see an increase in cloud near the south coast with rain developing across the south on Wednesday night into Thursday. Further north it may remain dry and cool in northeast winds of 50 to 70 km/hr. Rainfalls about 10 mm. Highs both days 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for very cool late April temperatures in a generally northwest to northerly flow that may become strong at times with disturbances dropping south across Britain or the North Sea. Snow showers may develop in some of these frontal troughs, or sleety rain/hail showers, but high pressure may also try to build in so that some days may be dry. Temperatures will be 3-5 degrees below average and some highs may not exceed 8 C, with slight frosts continuing. There are hints of a more settled and likely somewhat warmer interval near the end of the month when the distant high pressure moves closer.

My local weather on Friday was partly cloudy and a little warmer again with highs near 16 C.

Monday, 18 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, very light showers at times near Atlantic coasts, trace amounts to 1 mm ... highs 10 to 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing, frost likely. Lows -3 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny with afternoon cloudy periods, highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine but increasing cloud, moderate east winds developing, risk of rain by evening near south coast has decreased but some could occur near outer headlands, morning lows -2 to +3 C and highs 12-15 C mildest near west coast.

THURSDAY ... Continued partly to mostly cloudy, rather mild, any rain will likely be confined to south coast and could be gone before mid-day there, moderate east to northeast winds, lows 4-7 C and highs 12-15 C, mildest in Connacht.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, lows 3-6 C and highs 11-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cooler by next weekend, still expecting some intervals of unseasonably cold northwest winds and wintry shower risk next week although models seem to have downgraded the severity somewhat.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny through high cloud, and warmer with the high 18 C.

Wednesday, 20 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with increasing cloud near south coast, pleasantly warm inland and near west coast, somewhat cooler near east and south coasts due to easterly breezes increasing to 40-60 km/hr. Highs 14-16 C for most, but closer to 12 C in onshore breezes.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy in south, clear intervals central and north, isolated ground frost inland north. Lows 4-7 C south, 1-3 C north/central.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals in north. Rain will brush south coast from Cork to south Kerry, 1-3 mm in a few locations there, but otherwise a dry day for almost all locations, winds east to northeast 40-60 km/hr and highs 12-15 C, mildest in Connacht and Clare, Limerick.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, isolated showers, turning slightly colder by afternoon as northeast winds turn more northerly, morning lows 3-7 C and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY will bring similar weather, cloudy with a few passing showers, a cold northeast wind at times, lows 1-3 C and highs 9-11 C.

NEXT WEEK continues to look unseasonably cold. Tuesday night into Wednesday seems to be the most likely interval for wintry showers although a second surge of very cool air will arrive by Friday. Highs each day will be held down to 7-10 C with slight frosts most nights. The total rainfall (or melted equivalent) will not be very great and the present drying conditions will not be entirely reversed.

Over in BRITAIN, most of these details will be similar although at times it will be a degree or two colder, and with more widespread wintry showers (snow on some northern hills) next week, at least in eastern parts of England. Some record low daily temperatures may occur.

By contrast, my local weather continued to resemble the middle of summer with sunshine and highs in the 25-30 C range all around the region. We are expecting one more day of this with a thundery breakdown possible, something that is quite rare around here (I would estimate that we get 3 to 5 thunder days a year locally, compared to maybe 30-50 just a few miles further inland). This warmth has extended well to the north and encouraged an early start to the brush fire season (these early ones are usually cases where an agricultural burn gets out of control). There is also a warm spell underway in eastern regions, not as record-breaking as the western heat, and the Houston (Texas) area has had severe flooding rainfalls recently.

Friday, 22 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some light rain at times near south coast (3-5 mm possible), otherwise cloudy with a few brighter intervals more frequent in west and north, not quite as warn as recent days with highs around 13 C in moderate east to northeast breezes 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few light showers possible, lows 2-4 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy and colder with a few passing showers in moderate northeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr and risk of showers mainly in northwest counties, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few passing showers, cold northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and unseasonably cold with risk of wintry showers (mainly on hills in north), lows about -1 C and highs 7-10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Quite cold for several more days with highs 7-12 C, occasional showers that could also be wintry on hills. Somewhat warmer in the first week of May, rather unsettled with highs 11-15 C.

These trends will be similar in Britain although with more widespread wintry showers around Tuesday to Friday of next week.

My local weather was partly sunny after some brief early morning showers, quite a bit cooler with a high near 18 degrees. The heat wave we were having has pushed east of the Cascades where it was once again closer to 30 as far east as Montana. Eastern regions of North America have some scattered thunderstorms and rather warm temperatures as well.

Sunday, 24 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Increasing cloud, cool, north to northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, frequent light showers mainly in northwest counties this morning may spread somewhat further southeast although some places will likely remain dry, 3 to 5 mm possible in the wetter areas of the northwest, and highs 8-11 C with the higher values in the southeast.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, passing showers, rather cold although probably too cloudy (or breezy) for frost, lows 2-5 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, a few passing showers, cold northwest winds 40-60 km/hr, highs 8-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and unseasonably cold with risk of wintry showers (mainly on hills in north), lows about -1 C and highs 7-10 C. Some showers may produce thunder and hail.

WEDNESDAY ... Continued cold with thundery showers possible, lows 1-3 C and highs 7-11 C.

THURSDAY ... Very cold, wintry showers may become more widespread, winds veering to northerly 40-60 km/hr, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 6-9 C.

FRIDAY ... Risk of sleet or wet snow in parts of the south, cold with scattered wintry showers further north. Lows 2-4 C and highs 5-9 C. Winds becoming east to northeast 40-60 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, winds remaining east to northeast, possible rain and while it will stay rather cool, temperatures will be slightly improved in the 9-12 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Temperatures should slowly improve in the first week of May to more normal values but it may remain rather unsettled.

Over in BRITAIN the colder periods indicated above will likely produce more widepsread wintry showers and snow. The Friday weather system is expected to intensify somewhat over southern England where there's a risk of quite a significant snowfall in the Midlands. The GFS model indicates just 2-4 cm coverage on some hills in Cork and Waterford from this, but 10-15 cms in parts of south-central England, so we'll have to keep a close eye on how this develops closer to the time.

My local weather on Saturday was warm and humid with mostly cloudy skies, and occasional drizzle that has turned to a steady light rain tonight. The high was about 20 C.

Tuesday, 26 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


Note to readers: Boards may present you with a new-look menu (as an overseas member, I have already had the experience). You will notice that "sticky" threads such as this forecast are not in the menu. To access this thread, you would need to click on "Charter and Important" located in the upper right portion of the screen. Then you will have the menu of sticky threads. Another option is to click on "legacy site" which should return you to the current format. I won't know when this happens unless I get a number of private messages perhaps. So make a mental note, it is supposed to be happening any day now for the larger majority of members. I will leave this notice up for a week or so. (key is to remember to click on Charter and Important.)


Now to the forecast, which is perhaps more appropriate for Iceland or February (or both) ...

TODAY ... Breezy and cold, winds northerly 40-60 km/hr, a few brighter intervals at first, then widespread thundery showers with hail, snow on some hills (mostly Connacht and Ulster) and highs only 6-9 C. Temperatures could drop sharply during heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers and very cold but long dry intervals in south and some central counties, lows -3 to +2 C, frost likely inland.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, morning frosts then further thundery showers, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 6 to 10 C. Winds continuing northerly at about 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or intervals of light rain, windy and cool with lows 1-3 C, highs 7-10 C. Winds northwest 50-80 km/hr. Temperatures could drop during passage of heavier showers with possible sleet or snow at times.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy, risk of snow or sleet on hills, rain showers elsewhere, lows about zero to +2 C and highs about 9 C.

SATURDAY ... Continued rather cold with showers but some sunny breaks too, lows about 1 to 3 C, highs 9 to 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Rain may become heavier at times, 10-20 mm possible. Highs about 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... A little milder on Monday with showers, 14 C, then brisk winds returning, somewhat colder (not as cold as this week) with highs 9-12 C, but some faint signs of improvement towards the second week of May.

If you're heading for Scotland or Wales, there will be more risk of snow there today due to the combination of colder air and trajectory over water in parts of Wales. Some heavy falls are possible. This may also be the case in parts of eastern England although there it will be a more mixed variety of showers. The wind chill factor will be quite brisk too, earlier I noticed some reports as low as -15 C. In Ireland today, wind chills of -5 C or thereabouts may be felt in exposed areas.

Meanwhile, it is more spring-like here and Monday was mostly sunny with a rather cool breeze and highs near 13 C. A spring storm is brewing over the Rockies and heavy snow is predicted for Wyoming and parts of South Dakota, while severe storms develop in Nebraska.

Thursday, 28 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Becoming windy and turning colder again during the afternoon hours, rain clearing east by mid-day but widespread wintry showers will then develop in a west to northwest flow with winds at 50-80 km/hr, highest temperatures about 9 C north, 12 C south mid-day but falling off steadily this afternoon. Some sunny intervals will develop in particular near south coast.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold, lows near freezing (0 C) with some accumulating snow in parts of Ulster and north Connacht, and on higher hills elsewhere. Risk of 1-3 cm snow in quite a few locations, 3-7 cms on higher slopes. Only a few passing flurries of mixed wintry variety expected for most of Leinster and Munster but one or two places may see a touch of snow in west to northwest winds 50-80 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Cold and windy with passing wintry showers or sleety rain/hail showers, risk of thunder. Highs 7-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, a little milder after some scattered ground frost, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain could be heavy at times (10-20 mm) then clearing from west during the morning, still a few isolated showers after the clearance but milder, lows 4-7 C and highs 10-13 C.

MONDAY ... Windy, slightly cooler but not as cold as this past week, with lows around 3 C and highs around 10 C. Winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder again, highs near 14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Heavy rain may push through northern counties around Tuesday night, after which there will be several days of mainly dry, if somewhat cloudy weather with isolated showers, and temperatures a little below normal (lows 1-3 C and highs 11-13 C). Warmer weather will likely develop in the second week of May and highs may get into the 15-18 C range.

Over in Britain today, the strong northwest flow will hit western Scotland fairly soon and there may be heavy snow showers spreading across many parts of northern then central England and Wales by late in the day.

My local weather on Wednesday was pleasant, sunshine through high cloud and the high around 16 C.

Saturday, 30 April, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers, a little milder with highs 8-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain may be briefly heavy, 10-15 mm likely, lows 5-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning rain could be heavy at times (10-15 mm) then clearing from west during the morning, still a few isolated showers after the clearance but milder, and highs 11-14C.

MONDAY ... Windy, another band of rain in the early morning hours with about 10 mm likely, then slightly cooler but not as cold as this past week, with lows around 3-5 C and highs around 10 C. Winds west to northwest 40-60 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder again, highs near 14 C. Heavy rain not considered as likely now but some overnight light rain in northwest (5-10 mm potential).

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun with a few more passing showers, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slightly cooler towards the end of the week, highs 11-14 C, then a prolonged period of southeasterly flow with cloud and drizzle or light rain, highs close to 15 C. There could be one or two days thrown into that spell with some sunny breaks and warmer temperatures at least in some western counties.

My local weather on Friday was sunny with cloud piled up on the local mountains to the north, highs near 17 C. Meanwhile more snow fell in Colorado, some parts had 25 cms. This is fairly localized and related to upper level low pressure rather than any outbreak of cold air.

Monday, 2 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


ALERT valid 0600h to 0900h for squally showers, possible thunder and hail, wind gusts to 80 km/hr and brief bursts of heavy rainfall, moving through Leinster, last and most vigorous part of this front is expected between 0700h and 0800h in the Dublin region (somewhat earlier in central Leinster).

TODAY ... Squally showers and gusty winds will move through Leinster, east Ulster and east Munster this morning. Clearing is already underway further west, and this will lead to some sunny breaks but developing showers most frequent in Atlantic coastal counties around mid-day. Winds westerly 50-80 km/hr, fresher than yesterday with highs 10-12 C. About 5-15 mm of rain is likely with the morning frontal passage (this has largely fallen already in western counties).

TONIGHT ... A few isolated showers persisting but with diminishing winds and some clearing, rather cool especially inland, lows 1-4 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs 11-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain may brush the northwest coasts but most other places will stay dry with occasional warm sunshine. Lows 5-8 C and highs 14-17 C.

THURSDAY ... More cloud than sun but still rather warm, lows 4-7 C and highs about 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud, risk of light rain developing, lows 3-6 C and highs about 13 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Misty with low cloud fairly extensive, light rain at times, highs about 14 C.

NEXT WEEK could bring somewhat warmer temperatures (certainly in Britain and quite possibly in Ireland too) with highs away from exposed coasts perhaps reaching 17 or 18 C. With east winds, the east and south coasts may see locally cooler conditions with fog near shorelines. There may also be some westward-moving clusters of heavier showers during this warmer spell, which does not appear to be under much threat of a sudden change at this point although eventually somewhat cooler days appear possible by mid-month, but still around 13-14 C.

My local weather on Sunday was sunny and very warm at 23 C. We're expecting one more day of this early summer spell today before a gradual change to cloud and light rain mid-week.

Wednesday, 4 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals (mainly eastern counties and parts of Munster), occasional rain in Connacht and northern parts of west Munstern generally light to moderate and showery (5-10 mm) making some further progress east but tending to fragment and turn to patchy drizzle, some parts of southeast likely to remain dry. Highs 13-15 C. Moderate southerly winds at times 30-50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Patchy drizzle, fog or mist patches, lows 5-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Misty to start, then a few sunny intervals, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud from east to west with light rain possible in eastern counties spreading west overnight, lows 5-8 C and highs 12-14 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of heavy rain likely, 15-30 mm potential, heaviest amounts in west-central Munster and possibly south Connacht. This rain will push northwest during the entire day, and there could be some improvement in north Leinster and east Ulster before the end of the day, temperatures will be steady in the 12-14 C range in most places.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, patchy light rain but long dry intervals, and quite warm and humid. Lows 12-14 C and highs 17-19 C. Moderate southeast to east winds may bring somewhat cooler air inland near the Irish Sea and south coast.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY will be a warm if rather cloudy period, with any sunshine temperatures could reach 20 or a bit higher, but there's enough cloud in the forecast to make 18-19 C the most likely range for most places, and nights will remain rather mild at 8-12 C. Winds will continue moderate easterly.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Eventually winds seem likely to turn more northeast and this may bring drier air into parts of the north leading to more frequent sunny breaks but cooler nights, even if days remain about in the same range. Some model solutions bring in a brief shot of colder air in about a week to ten days from now, others hold that off for two weeks and it could be a very minor event, possibly the higher pressure north of Scotland will link through to Atlantic high pressure and lead to a long dry spell.

My local weather on Tuesday turned out rather sunny despite a cooler marine source for the local air mass, highs were near 22 C as a result. The hot and dry air continues to dominate further east and there is a major fire emergency around Fort McMurray, Alberta (in the northeast part of that province) forcing thousands to flee the city earlier. Wildfires are spreading into the city at least in some areas, looks rather apocalyptic on the television news.

Friday, 6 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


I would call the upcoming trend more of a warm spell than a heat wave but some may find it hot at times next week, more likely those in the central, western and northwestern counties. This won't be quite as settled a spell as some of the heat waves in the summer of 2013 presented (after the rain on Saturday). Also we don't expect temperatures to get much past the low 20s at any point, while "heat wave" would probably imply blazing sunshine and highs from 25 to 30 to many. Then there's the sea breeze cooling factor in case you wanted to lounge on the beach, water temperatures off the east coast are barely above 10 degrees and the air coming inland from that will have a chill that may push in past the Dublin conurbation (big word, thought I would show off a bit) ... But whether it's a warm spell or a heat wave or a cool sea breeze with sunshine, it's a vast improvement on most of April. It's almost as warm as December.

(and my coding is fixed too )

TODAY ... Sunshine gradually fading behind increasing and thickening high cloud except perhaps in some parts of west Munster, Connacht and west Ulster. Light breezes will become moderate easterly near east and south coasts by afternoon. Highs 13-16 C and possibly a bit higher well inland if the sun stays out.

TONIGHT ... Light rain at first will move into the southeast around midnight and will spread slowly to Munster and the southern half of Leinster, with amounts by morning 5-10 mm. Lows 12-15 C. Further north, cloudy with a few clear breaks, spots of drizzly light rain just before morning in some areas and lows 8-10 C. Winds moderate northeast (30-50 km/hr) in places exposed to east and south coasts, otherwise rather light easterly.

SATURDAY ... The no pain no gain theme kicks in with rain spreading rather rapidly across the south into the west, leaving parts of north Leinster and east Ulster with rather light and briefer rainfall. As a consequence, further amounts will vary from 5-10 mm in many places to 10-20 mm in some parts of central Munster and Connacht. The rain appears likely to become quite heavy and possibly thundery before pushing out to sea around Mayo in the late afternoon, but many places could have some partial clearing just before the day ends. Highs 13-15 C with winds generally NE 40-60 km/hr shifting later to SE 30-50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Warm and humid, morning low cloud and mist or fog will gradually break to partly cloudy skies, some spells of warm sunshine and just a slight risk of isolated showers in moderate southeast winds 40-60 km/hr. Lows will be 12-14 C and highs 19-22 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY looks fairly settled and warm although south coast could be brushed by weak areas of rain staying mostly offshore and moving west across Cork and Kerry on one or two occasions. Some sunny intervals are likely each day although the pattern looks rather cloudy at times despite the warmth. Lows of 12-15 C and highs of 19-23 C will continue with easterly winds adding some cooling effects to the Leinster and some Munster coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK is quite speculative, these blocking easterly spring patterns allow little skill in model projections beyond a week, and there are some signs that the easterly flow will back to northerly at times. Even so, the main thrust of colder air moving south will be over eastern Britain at that time, and across the North Sea into central Europe. So while it may turn considerably cooler there, effects on temperatures in Ireland may be more subtle, with highs more into the normal 15-18 C range. There is probably a mentionable chance of the spell intensifying to warmer conditions at some point too. The El Nino pattern has rapidly broken down although the atmospheric signal remains fairly unchanged upstream for the time being. The next signal to go may be the eastern Atlantic cold pool, but as we approach summer it's probably to your advantage to retain that colder sea surface as it tends to promote blocking high pressure to the northeast.

My local weather on Thursday was so non-descript that I had to ask for a reminder of it, apparently it was featureless, partly cloudy and near 17 C. The Alberta fire situation has evolved somewhat with significant forward movement taking much of the firestorm situation beyond the city affected (Fort McMurray) and into less populated but more densely forested areas. Smoke from these fires has reached almost as far south as North Dakota now behind a cold front that will drop temperatures there and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan from Thursday's record highs near 35 C to a more temperate 15 C. That has set off a few rather sporadic thunderstorms and a more organized frontal band will push east through today and tomorrow, allowing a brief warmup on the east coast to be followed by a few days of quite chilly weather (predicted high in Ottawa on Monday is 8 C after 23 on Saturday).

Sunday, 8 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some sunny intervals developing, scattered and rather light showers moving northwest, more frequent at first in east Ulster and parts of Leinster, then some clusters of heavier and possibly thundery showers mainly to the west of Leinster but possible in the inland portions of Leinster also. These may not be very extensive but watch for an update once development is about to begin this afternoon. Rainfall amounts in most cases will be limited to about 2-5 mm but could reach 10 mm in a few spots. It will be warm and humid for most (highs of 18-20 C) although the southeast winds at 30-50 mph will tend to keep temperatures lower near east and south coasts (13-16 C).

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, mild and humid, a few more light showers possible but amounts slight, lows 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, warm and humid, outbreaks of showery and possibly thundery rain near south coast by afternoon and evening, 5-15 mm in a few parts of Cork and Waterford, south Kerry. Highs generally 18-20 C but 13-15 C near east and south coast where some fog or mist may drift inland a few kilometres. Winds east-southeast 30-50 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Southern half of the country is now expected to receive an interval of moderate to heavy rain but this will likely not last all day and there could be some more pleasant intervals. The northern half will probably remain dry and partly cloudy. Morning lows 10-13 C. Winds east 30-50 km/hr, once again promoting cooler sea breezes in the Dublin region, but otherwise highs around 17 to 19 C (14 to 16 in rain).

WEDNESDAY ... Further rain or thunderstorms in the south, probably continuing dry in Ulster and some parts of north Connacht and north Leinster, if rather cloudy (best chance for sunshine will be around Inishowen and Derry). Lows 11-13 C and highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, fresher as winds become more northeast at 30 to 50 km/hr, but more sunshine keeping temperatures roughly similar, lows 9-12 and highs 17-20 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers, lows 7-9 C and highs 13-16 C east and north, 16 to 19 C southwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled, temperatures close to normal values by next weekend (highs 14-17 C) then the possibility of another somewhat warmer interval by early to middle of following week.

During the next few days, somewhat warmer temperatures are likely in Britain and isolated heavy thunderstorms could redevelop. The longer term outlook is similar though.

My local weather on Saturday was sunny and warm with highs near 26 C despite cool sea breezes keeping it closer to 20 C at the seafront. A weak cold front has just passed without rain and Sunday (which is Mothers' Day in North America) is expected to be partly cloudy and around 17 C.

Monday, 9 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Intervals of showery rain, with some thundery bursts possible, across Munster and south Leinster, east winds 30-50 km/hr, about 5-15 mm of rain (the heavier amounts Cork to Bantry) and highs 15-17 C. Partly cloudy, warm and humid further north with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible, some places remaining dry all day with good sunny intervals most likely in west Ulster, highs 18-21 C. Some rather chilly sea breezes could develop in the Dublin region, whether they last or just come in for part of the day, temperatures associated will be 13-15 C. Sea mist or fog may drift inland near outer south coast and in a few spots mainly to north of Dublin on east coast.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming light and drizzly in south, mostly cloudy and very milld elsewhere, lows 11-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Heavier rain with occasional thunder is likely to push west from Waterford to Kerry, 15-30 mm potential. A little further north, Wexford to south Clare, rainfall amounts of 5-10 mm are more likely. Central and northern counties may remain largely dry with isolated showers and thunderstorms, warm and humid, highs will range from 14 C in the rainy southwest to 19-22 C in the inland northwest. Once again, chilly sea breezes on the east coast could suppress temperatures to 14-16 C.

WEDNESDAY ... The earlier rain will quickly fragment to showers in southern and then central counties and the trend will be towards more widespread dry intervals and some sunshine in most places, lows 11-14 C and highs 17-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, just a few brief and isolated showers, lows 11-14 C and highs 18-22 C.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals, turning slightly cooler due to a more northerly component to the east wind, lows 8-10 C and highs 17-19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some rather pleasant and dry weather seems more likely now for the weekend (highs 16-18 C) then increasing cloud and rain at times during the following week as more of a southwesterly flow develops. It should stay a bit warmer than average.

BRITAIN will have a lot of these same trends although eastern counties will briefly turn considerably cooler next weekend as a weak northerly flow just catches them, a more robust cooling trend is likely in west-central Europe and Scandinavia.

My local weather on Sunday was partly sunny, breezy and rather cool with highs of about 16 C.

UPDATE _ Monday 9 May __ 8 p.m.

The ALERT for heavy rainfall in the southeast is now extended to midnight for areas previously mentioned (Wexford, Waterford) and the area is extended to include parts of south Carlow, Kilkenny, Cork and west Waterford mainly from about 9 p.m. to 3 a.m. in those areas. Development continues to pulse mainly offshore with bands moving inland, potential is certainly there for eventual totals of 20-30 mm on land this evening and overnight, flooding could develop in any places that experience longer bursts of heavy rain (in the counties mentioned).

Further updates are likely to be reserved for the morning forecast but I may issue that quite early if situation is fluid.

Wednesday, 11 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


Warm spell lasts to Friday, but still reasonably pleasant temperatures for the weekend and next week, easterly flow about to revert to more standard southwesterlies


TODAY ... Scattered outbreaks of light rain in Ulster and border regions of Leinster may spread to parts of north Connacht giving 3-7 mm before dying out early afternoon. Heavier rain could arrive in the southeast by mid-afternoon from its current location in western England. Most guidance suggests that the 15-30 mm rain expected there will diminish to 5-10 mm for its later push across southern Ireland but we will keep a close eye on developments. There will be a slight risk of isolated thunderstorms in west-central counties, watch for updates. Highs should reach 18-22 C in most places, could be held to about 15 C in onshore flow near east, south coasts in ENE 30-50 km/hr breezes.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, last of the showers departing west Munster, isolated sprinkles of rain elsewhere mainly Ulster, lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm and continued humid in south but somewhat drier in north, highs 18-23 C. A few thundery showers could develop in Mayo and west Galway, as well as Kerry. Winds E-NE 30-50 km/hr.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy with long spells of sunshine inland north, west, risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms in west Munster. Winds northeast to north 30-50 km/hr. Lows 8-11 C and highs 17-20 C south, 14-17 C north.

SATURDAY ... Winds will continue to back around through north to northwest, although the flow will slacken in the west with the approach of a high pressure ridge. It will be generally cooler but quite bright with only a slight risk of isolated showers in east Ulster mainly. Lows 3-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, risk of isolated frost in the early morning, but pleasant in the daytime, lows 1-4 C and highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, a bit warmer again, lows 4-7 C and highs 15-19.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures, occasional showers, adding up to normal amounts of rain in the week to follow. Charts are showing the potential for very warm weather to return around the 24th to 27th.

As mentioned, heavy rain is moving slowly west through southern England towards Wales. Amounts of 15-30 mm have already fallen and 10-20 mm more is expected. Some roadway flooding on the M-4 and other routes between ferry crossings from Ireland and Bristol, London or Midlands could be expected (if you're already en route especially). This should give way to mainly dry conditions by tonight and tomorrow.

My local weather on Tuesday was sunny and the high near 19 C. Colder air has pooled over Montana behind a slow-moving low, and some places have seen about 10 cm of snow with a cold rain in slightly lower elevations there. This will change to all rain as it moves out into the northern plains states and leaves the higher elevations but it will be a cold rain with strong northwest winds for the Dakotas. Relatively warm with showers and thunderstorms further east.

Friday, 13 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals developing from north to central counties as a slow-moving and weak front drops south. It will probably stay dry almost everywhere but there is a slight risk of showers or thunderstorms in west Munster. Winds northeast to north occasionally 30-50 km/hr.
Highs 18-22 C south, 14-17 C north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, isolated showers in west Munster. Lows 3-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Winds will continue to back around through north to northwest, although the flow will slacken in the west with the approach of a high pressure ridge. It will be generally cooler but quite bright with only a slight risk of isolated showers in east Ulster mainly. Lows 3-7 C and highs 13-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, risk of isolated frost in the early morning, but pleasant in the daytime, with a mixture of cloudy and sunny intervals, early morning lows 1-4 C, probably around 8-10 C by 0800h then highs 13-16 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, a bit warmer again, lows 4-7 C and highs 15-19.

TUESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, moderate south to southwest winds, lows 8-12 C and highs 15-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Heavy showers then clearing, gusty west to northwest winds and rather cool, lows 5-8 C and highs 13-16 C. About 10-20 mm rainfall is likely in many parts of the country, heavier south, from Tuesday into early Wednesday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A few more showers appear likely late in the week as a weaker system tracks east from the Atlantic, then the models are showing a warm and dry week to follow, while this is low-confidence at present, it would bring temperatures back up towards 20 C or a little above.

My local weather on Thursday was sunny and warm with a high of 22 C as our year of California-style weather continues almost uninterrupted. Normal May weather here is about the same as in northern France or southern England, fairly frequent showers and highs 16-18 C. This good weather extends east through most of the northern U.S. but colder air is pushing south in other parts of western Canada and while the fires in Alberta are not entirely under control, they are being slowly suppressed more by this chilly trend than any measurable rainfall.

Sunday, 15 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals mainly near north coast and warming up gradually to reach 14-17 C this afternoon in light and variable winds. Sea breezes may set in but will also be weak.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chilly, mist or fog patches, lows 2-7 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, a little warmer, highs 17-20 C.

TUESDAY ... Showers developing mainly in western half of the country, lows about 5-8 C and highs 14-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Breezy with showers, some of them rather heavy, and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled with some rather heavy falls of rain from Thursday to Sunday (on average, 20-35 mm will fall during the period) and staying cooler with highs 13-16 C. A slow warming trend should follow in the week of 23-27 May.

My local weather started out sunny and ended up overcast with rain just off to the south, variable breezes have turned easterly and increased to 30-50 km/hr but it's still clear enough to get a view of the moon near Jupiter. It felt warm this morning (23 C) and chilly since late afternoon as temperatures have fallen to about 14 C.

Tuesday, 17 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland

Summer 2016 Outlook -- A rather warm summer is predicted, with rainfall likely to be above normal values in the south, trending to below normal in Ulster. There will be occasional spells of very warm or hot weather when southeast winds develop around high pressure to the northeast. There will also be spells of near normal temperatures and frequent showers in southwest to west winds when lower pressure develops to northwest. These spells are expected to be roughly equal in frequency so that the summer will have alternating spells of warm/dry and cooler (although not very cool)/moist conditions. The heavier rain may develop when warm, dry spells break down to be replaced by cooler Atlantic intervals. Some severe thunderstorms are to be expected in that scenario and the inland south to southwest may be the most likely location. Overall, temperatures are expected to run about 0.5 to 1.0 degrees above normal from June to August with no large variation from that expected month to month. Rainfall may vary from 30% above normal in parts of the south to 10% below normal in the north. This reflects a trend expected in Britain where Scotland may have a very dry summer with 30 to 50 per cent below average rainfalls; the south of England will also be wet and northern France very wet (locally up to twice normal rainfalls). The same general temperature forecast applies in Britain, generally warm but more so relative to normal in Scotland. Final note, while the temperature forecast for Ireland (and Britain) is conservative, there is some chance of a warmer outcome still, taking the summer into the warmest 10% (at the more conservative levels I have mentioned, it would be warmer than 75% of recent summers). Expect the warmest weather in July and the first week of August.


SHORT TERM FORECASTS


TODAY ...Passing showers with 5-10 mm for most locations, a few brighter intervals also, highs 16-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Another round of showers, moderate southwest winds and lows of 7-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, a few showers, moderate southwest winds veering to northwest 40-60 km/hr, and highs about 15 C northwest, 17 C elsewhere.

THURSDAY ... Heavy showers likely (10-20 mm rain potential), lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy at times with passing showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Intervals of rain, windy at times, highs near 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Becoming very warm again during the course of the last week of May, with strong southerly winds for the early part of the week, backing to moderate southeast as warmer air pushes in, highs may reach the low 20s although 17-19 C near exposed coasts. There may be a brief interval of heavier rain and further scattered showers but a drying trend as the warmth develops.

For BRITAIN, during this forecast period the only significant difference will be very strong winds developing over the weekend as the track of low pressure will bring a stronger southwesterly gradient to England around late Saturday (in comparison to Ireland).

My local weather on Monday was overcast and cool with a high of 15 C.

Thursday, 19 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some heavy rain will move across Leinster and inland Connacht, most of Ulster while partial clearing begins in parts of Munster and west Connacht. About 10-15 mm of rain is likely, with the risk of a few thundery showers. Clearing should reach the east coast by about mid-day and in the westerly flow that follows, some sunny breaks with isolated showers (more numerous in the northwest) by afternoon, with highs 15-17 C and some westerly gusts to about 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches, lows 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Increasing cloud during the morning hours, some outbreaks of rain in the west by mid-day or early afternoon, these spreading to the east by late afternoon or evening. About 5-10 mm on average, highs 16-18 C.

SATURDAY ... Patchy light rain or drizzle, somewhat cooler although quite humid, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Next week is looking warmer in stages with some rain accompanying the warm fronts moving west in a rather similar pattern to the recent warm week, so we should see broadly similar results, higher temperatures in north and west than seabreeze-exposed south and east coasts, but generally warm with highs 18-22 C. This warm pattern looks like it wants to become entrenched as we approach June.

My local weather on Wednesday was overcast with a bit of light rain just starting this evening, highs were around 17 C.

Saturday, 21 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop, midlands and central Leinster most at risk. Highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT ... Clearing except for some mist or fog patches, isolated showers may continue in parts of northwest, lows 5-8 C. Full moon tonight (10:14 p.m. as it rises low in southeast).

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, just a few isolated showers as northwest breezes pick up, becoming quite windy by afternoon especially near Atlantic coasts, with gusts to 70 km/hr. Highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals, light winds, sea breezes will set in on most coasts but nearly calm inland. Lows 3-7 C and highs 15-18 C.

TUESDAY to FRIDAY will bring another spell of east to southeast winds, some rain may move across central regions on Tuesday and northern Ulster on Wednesday, but many places will enjoy quite a stretch of dry weather, warmer for western and central (inland) counties with highs 18-22 C but remaining a bit cool near south and east coasts as sea breezes keep temperatures closer to 14-17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for some heavier showers or thunderstorms towards the end of the month, continued quite warm.

My local weather on Friday was pleasant with sunny intervals and isolated showers moving east to west, highs near 19 C.

Monday, 23 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly to mostly sunny, light winds and highs 14-16 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear with fog and mist developing, some low cloud drifting west across parts of Ulster, north Leinster. Lows 3-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals although more cloud likely in north, isolated afternoon and evening showers mostly in Connacht, warmer for west with highs 17-19 C, staying closer to 15 C for east and south coast. Moderate east to southeast breezes 30-50 km/hr at times.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning lows about 5-8 C then partly cloudy, warm in western counties, highs 17-20 C, slight risk of a shower or isolated thunderstorm. Sunny with cloudy intervals for east and south, cool near Irish Sea and south coast, highs 14-17 C. Moderate east to southeast breezes 30-50 km/hr.

THURSDAY ... Warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms developing, some may become heavy inland west, southeast breezes 30-50 km/hr. Lows about 8-10 C and highs 18-21 C west, 15-18 C east and south.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY now expected to remain rather warm, partly cloudy, not as many showers and longer dry intervals. Lows near 8 C and highs 17-20 C.

The same general pattern will be found across Britain but rain could be heavy at times mid-week.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with a few brief showers and rather cool, highs near 16 C.

Wednesday, 25 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny intervals then increasing cloud by afternoon, spreading from east to west. East to northeast breezes will keep temperatures in the 13-15 C range in most of Leinster and east Ulster, while further west highs should reach 18 to 20 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle across parts of north and east, lows 7-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Widespread light rain or drizzle during the morning then partial clearing, highs 13-16 C east, 16-18 C west.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY will then bring slightly unsettled and warm conditions with the chance of heavy showers or local thunderstorms mainly in the western counties and inland from the south coast. Highs will range from 17-19 C east to about 20-23 C west. There will be at least some sunshine in most places each day with a greater risk of low cloud in Ulster and parts of north Leinster.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for this pattern to continue with perhaps a drying trend leading to longer sunny intervals and fewer isolated showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue a little warmer than average in most places except near the east coast due to onshore east to northeast winds

Over in BRITAIN it will be a similar story with the western counties of England and most of Wales warmer, and some rain later today moving west across central regions.

My local weather on Tuesday continued cloudy but with a few brighter intervals in the afternoon. Highs reached 18 C. Eastern regions are warming up towards a week-long warm spell that will see the first sustained above normal temperatures in about a month in places like Washington, New York and Boston. Highs will be around 27 C.

Friday, 27 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with some afternoon sunny breaks, but these may not last too long before showers and isolated thunderstorms develop. These are more likely to be persistent or heavy in the inland south and west although they could happen in other places too. Coverage is expected to be about 30% of the country at some point and amounts 5-10 mm. It will be a bit warmer than yesterday (not a high bar) and highs of 13-17 C will be widespread, 17-20 C possible in parts of the inland west.

TONIGHT ... Foggy with a few clear breaks, lows 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK for WEEKEND and MONDAY somewhat uncertain due to masses of low cloud circulating around a distant low that is edging west from Europe towards the east coast of Britain. However, the most likely outcome is partly cloudy skies, cooling sea breezes near east coast, warm for parts of the inland south and most of the west, highs generally in the 17-21 C range.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for somewhat warmer still (19-23 C) but with the persistent east to northeast breezes it may remain 13-17 C in parts of Leinster and east Ulster.

My local weather on Thursday was overcast and cool with outbreaks of rain, something we really need so the timing is good for that; highs only reached the mid teens.

Sunday, 29 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Partly cloudy after fog or mist dissipates, then a gradual buildup of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the western half of the country, rainfall amounts of 5-10 mm in some places, warm in most areas with highs 18-22 C but somewhat cooler near the east coast with highs 15-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, fog and mist patches developing, lows 6-10 C.

MONDAY ... Although rather similar to today's forecast, the showers and thunderstorms appear more likely to be largely confined to west Munster. Highs will reach 18-21 C in the west and some central counties too, and about 15-18 C in most of Leinster.

TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, warm. There is still a chance of rain late in the day moving west from Britain but some guidance now slows this down for an arrival on Wednesday instead. Lows 7-11 C and highs 18-23 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, showers or outbreaks of light rain, highs near 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern will continue rather similar but most of the rainfall seems likely to stay in south Leinster and Munster from mid-week to the weekend of 4th-5th June. At some point there may be a dry interval as higher pressure breaks down the easterly flow, and then eventually the circulation will become more south to southwest. Guidance at present does not bring much warmer air into Ireland or southern Britain but keeps it rather close over parts of France, so that given the usual uncertainty with forecasts at the ten to fifteen day time frame, it would not be surprising if warmer weather developed in the second week of June; at the least, it appears likely to run close to or slightly above normal values or around 20 C for daytime highs.

My local weather (this will please anyone who remembers all the warm, dry conditions that I have reported here almost all of the spring) was frankly dismal with heavy rain and very cool temperatures that struggled to exceed 10 degrees (C). We had a normal month's rainfall of almost 50 mm but that was badly needed, just not on a Saturday necessarily. It remains very warm in most of the eastern half of North America and a tropical storm (Bonnie) has formed off the southeast coast. You may recall that 2016 already had a named storm (Alex) back in January.

Tuesday, 31 May, 2016

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Sunny with a few cloudy intervals more frequent near northeast coasts, warm with highs 19-23 C for most, 15-18 C in sea breezes.

TONIGHT ... Clear with a few cloudy intervals, mild. Lows 6-10 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY appear likely to continue much the same, although with a slight risk of isolated showers in the north on Thursday. Highs will be into the low 20s away from cooler east-facing coasts where 16-19 C will be more probable. Overnight lows will remain near normal at 7-11 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK is fairly good too, while there may be more cloud in the mix, and a slight increase in the risk of isolated showers, it will continue to be mostly warm and dry with highs 18-23 C.

NEXT WEEK looks as though it may slowly turn more unsettled as winds from the south develop and bring moisture in from the Biscay region. It should stay quite warm with highs 18-22 C.

Over in BRITAIN today, a low moving southwest from Belgium into France will spread 10-20 mm rainfalls across parts of southern England with some embedded thunderstorms. In northeast France this same system may bring heavier rainfalls of 20-40 mm locally. In the heavier rain it will be rather cool at 12-14 C but away from that band of rain it should be fairly close to 19 or 20 degrees.

My local weather was sunny and the high was about 19 C. Very warm weather continues unabated across eastern North America, turning what was going to be a cooler than normal May into a more average outcome.