Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 April, 2012
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ALERT continued for possible heavy rainfalls in the coming week. Total rainfalls of 50-75 mms will accumulate, with the heavier amounts in the inland south.

TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, scattered showers becoming rather heavy in a few places later, risk of hail and thunder ... rainfall amounts for most 2-5 mms. Highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals at first in east and north could allow temperatures to fall as low as 2-5 C but in the west and south, cloud followed by rain around midnight, lows 5-8 C. The rain will spread rather slowly east and may miss a few parts of the north.

MONDAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain, winds becoming moderate northeast 15-30 mph, gradual clearing in parts of the northwest spreading somewhat further south although continued showers in the south, rainfalls including the earlier overnight generally 20-40 mms, heaviest in southeast, although amounts may be 5-15 mms in north. Highs 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Some showers continuing in southeast and near east coast, a more settled interval further west, as northeast backing to northwest winds die out briefly, so quite a mixed bag of weather including some sunny intervals further west, rather chilly for time of year, morning lows 3-5 C except near -1 C in some parts of the north with local frost, highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY NIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Rain arriving in the southwest Tuesday evening will gradually spread across the south in strong east to southeast winds and there may be some locally heavy downpours, with sleet possible on higher ground as temperatures near sea level stay close to 6-8 C. The rain may once again avoid parts of the far north or at least will be quite light there, but other regions could see a steady downpour and 30-60 mms of rain by late Wednesday as winds continue quite strong from the east at 30-50 mph, adding a chill to temperatures in the 7-9 C range (3-6 C on higher ground). Spot flooding may develop especially from about Cork east to Wexford and perhaps as far north as Offaly to Dublin/Meath. Some models are taking this storm a bit further south than others, so forecasts could shift around somewhat between now and Tuesday.

THURSDAY ... Very cool and windy with continued rain becoming sleety at times, snow a definite risk on higher ground as temperatures could fall to between 2 and 5 C (5-8 C near sea level). Some parts of Donegal and Derry could be in a dry zone with some sunshine and this would allow temperatures to rise a bit higher there. Winds NE 30-50 mph adding quite a chill. A further 10 to 30 mms of rain possible.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still some drizzle or sleet in a cold northeast wind but with longer sunny breaks in parts of the northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C with the chance of some very low daytime temperatures on higher ground in the southeast. Winds moderating somewhat to 20-35 mph.

OUTLOOK ... There may be some slight improvements under weak ridges of high pressure around the weekend or end of April but some further cold and unsettled episodes could then redevelop in early May.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A heavy rainstorm is slowly developing for New England, upstate New York, Quebec and eastern Ontario. This will last through today and much of Monday and could bring 100-200 mms of rain and flooding, with temperatures falling to about 10-12 C. Further west, cloudy and chilly in a northerly flow not much above freezing. Clear in much of the central third of the U.S. and warming up gradually, with hot and dry weather in parts of the south central and southwest states. Mild and sunny in the Canadian prairies, but cloudy and showery on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a warm, sunny day with increasing high cloud and highs near 16 C.

Astronomy note: New moon slipped by yesterday around 0820h and the very thin crescent of the new moon could be seen shortly after sunset near Jupiter in the west -- binoculars might be needed. Venus is still quite bright and a lot higher up, the Moon moves past it on Tuesday evening.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 April, 2012
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ALERT for some scattered heavy showers developing later today in east-central counties, some with hail and thunder, then a period of heavy rain mid-week that could leave as much as 30-50 mms across the southern and central counties, accompanied by strong blustery winds and unseasonably cold temperatures.

TODAY ... Morning showers or periods of rain (about 5-10 mms have already fallen with 2-5 mms more expected) across the south, with variable cloud elsewhere, isolated showers at first, winds becoming moderate northeast 15-30 mph, gradual clearing in parts of the northwest spreading somewhat further south although continued showers in the south, and possibly some bands of heavy showers with hail moving into eastern counties mid-day and afternoon, further rainfalls including the earlier overnight generally 10-20 mms, heaviest in southeast, although amounts may be 2-5 mms in north. Highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, turning quite cold with frosts inland, lows -2 in some valleys, otherwise about 1-4 C. Some isolated showers, sleety in nature, near south and west coasts.

TUESDAY ... Some showers continuing in southeast and near east coast, a more settled interval further west, as northeast backing to northwest winds die out briefly, so quite a mixed bag of weather including some sunny intervals further west, possible hail showers in parts of Connacht and west Munster by mid-day, generally rather chilly for time of year, highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY NIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Rain arriving in the southwest Tuesday evening will gradually spread across the south in strong east to southeast winds and there may be some locally heavy downpours, with sleet possible on higher ground as temperatures near sea level stay close to 6-8 C. The rain may once again avoid parts of the far north or at least will be quite light there, but other regions could see a steady downpour and 30-60 mms of rain by late Wednesday as winds continue quite strong from the east at 35-55mph in exposed locations, adding a chill to temperatures in the 7-9 C range and 3-6 C on higher ground. Spot flooding may develop especially from about Cork east to Wexford and perhaps as far north as Offaly to Dublin/Meath.

The models are now converging on a track from south of Cork across Wales into northern England that will be slow-moving, intense and close enough to Ireland to place the country under heavy bands of rain.

THURSDAY ... Very cool and windy with continued rain becoming sleety at times, snow a definite risk on higher ground as temperatures could fall to between 2 and 5 C (5-8 C near sea level). Some parts of Donegal and Derry could be in a dry zone with some sunshine or at least blue skies off to north, and this would allow temperatures to rise a bit higher there. Winds NE 30-50 mph adding quite a chill particularly near east coast. A further 10 to 30 mms of rain possible. Saturated fields could flood out onto nearby roads after this much prolonged rainfall.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still some drizzle or sleet in a cold northeast wind but with longer sunny breaks in parts of the northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C with the chance of some very low daytime temperatures on higher ground in the southeast. Winds moderating somewhat to 20-35 mph. Some inland locations could moderate somewhat but now Donegal and Derry could catch the outer edges of even colder air offshore and see some mountain wintry showers.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... A secondary low from France is expected to drift north into Wales before weakening, and this could spread rain back into the southeast at times on Saturday, but it could turn out just low cloud and/or drizzle with some clearing further north and west. Sunday then looks more settled with isolated showers. Both days are likely to be colder than average but milder than Friday at about 10-12 C daytime, 3-5 C nights. The further outlook is for unsettled but somewhat warmer conditions now, although there are perhaps equal chances of this coming in from the Atlantic or a more southeasterly source.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rainfalls in New England, New York state and eastern Ontario, southern Quebec, spreading into the Canadian Maritime provinces, on strong southeast to east winds, highs 10-13 C. Rain or sleet and hill snow further west from PA across w NY into s/c ON, some accumulations mainly in higher rural areas, highs 3-6 C, winds northeast at about 30-50 mph decreasing later. The southeast states to western Great Lakes will be in the cold northerly flow generated by this storm but with April sunshine temperatures should make it almost back to normal (6-10 C north, to about 20-25 C south). From there west, increasingly warm under a large sprawling high then a south to southwest flow of desert origins, so that highs will steadily increase towards the west except where reduced by elevation, to about 25-30 C in places, as far north as the southern portions of the Canadian prairies and B.C. Record warmth in the desert southwest could see places like Las Vegas near 38 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a partly cloudy, warm day with the sun getting through layers of Altocumulus and Altostratus, highs near 20 C and a sultry feel to the day.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 April, 2012
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ALERT upgraded to STORM WATCH ... Heavy rainfalls and very strong winds are likely to set in tonight in the south and spread rapidly to most parts of Ireland on Wednesday, lasting well into Thursday. Rainfalls of 30 to 60 mms are expected, with wind gusts (mostly from the northeast) to about 60 mph (100 km/hr) in exposed locations and 50 mph elsewhere. Some flooding is possible, together with very high tides on the east coast.

Forecasts:

TODAY ... Variable cloud with some sunshine to start in a few parts of the east and north, showers spreading east in southern counties mainly, some becoming heavy later with thunder and hail, rainfalls 3-8 mms on average but possibly 10-15 mms locally. Highs 9-12 C mildest in the southwest.

TONIGHT and WEDNESDAY ... Rain arriving in the southwest Tuesday evening will gradually spread across the south in strong east to southeast winds and there may be some locally heavy downpours, with sleet possible on higher ground as temperatures near sea level stay close to 6-8 C. Winds backing to ENE 40-60 mph with some very strong gusts in exposed locations, very high tides likely around Dublin. The rain may once again avoid parts of the far north or at least will be quite light there for much of the storm, but other regions could see a steady downpour with embedded thunderstorms and 30-60 mms of rain by late Wednesday as winds continue quite strong from the east at 35-55mph in exposed locations, adding a chill to temperatures in the 7-9 C range and 3-6 C on higher ground. Spot flooding may develop especially from about Cork east to Wexford and perhaps as far north as Offaly to Dublin/Meath. The one positive factor is the previous dry spell that has given some potential for rivers and soils to absorb a large fraction of this storm's rainfall.

The models are now converging on a track from south of Cork across Wales into northern England that will be slow-moving, intense and close enough to Ireland to place the country under heavy bands of rain. Some models show a 970 mb centre near the M5 buoy mid-day Wednesday.

THURSDAY ... Very cool and windy with continued rain becoming sleety at times, snow a definite risk on higher ground as temperatures could fall to between 2 and 5 C (5-8 C near sea level). Some parts of Donegal and Derry could be in a dry zone with some sunshine or at least blue skies off to north, and this would allow temperatures to rise a bit higher there. Winds moderating to NE 30-50 mph but still adding quite a chill particularly near east coast. A further 10 to 30 mms of rain possible, with a drying trend slowly setting in for parts of the west. Saturated fields could flood out onto nearby roads after this much prolonged rainfall.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still some drizzle or sleet in a cold northeast wind but with longer sunny breaks in parts of the northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C with the chance of some very low daytime temperatures on higher ground in the southeast. Winds moderating somewhat to 20-35 mph. Some inland locations could moderate somewhat but now Donegal and Derry could catch the outer edges of even colder air offshore and see some wintry showers especially on higher ground.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... A secondary low from France is expected to drift north into Wales before weakening, and this could spread rain back into the southeast at times on Saturday into Sunday, but it could turn out just low cloud and/or drizzle with some clearing further north and west. Both days are likely to be colder than average but milder than Friday at about 10-12 C daytime, 3-5 C nights. The further outlook is for unsettled but somewhat milder conditions at times, although not much higher than 14 C at peak, with the continued chance of brief colder spells. The long-range trend through May is likely to be one of gradual improvement towards a warm, dry finish.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold and windy with outbreaks of snow, sleet or ice pellets mixing with rain at lower elevations in the northeast states and Great Lakes, highs mainly 3-7 C to about 10-12 C coastal regions. Heavy rains and strong southeast winds in the Maritimes of Canada. Otherwise, large parts of the southern U.S. and all of the central states will be warm and dry, trending to hot in the southwest, with a scattering of thunderstorms over the northern Rockies in advance of somewhat cooler air sagging south across Alberta and central B.C. ... colder arctic air is confined to the northern territories of Canada but will be making a strong push south to reinforce the current chill in the Great Lakes over the weekend, so wintry weather is not quite done yet in that region.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was mostly cloudy but rather warm still, with highs near 18 C.

Check in for updates especially around 5-6 p.m., and see the storm thread on this forum for many other details.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday 24 April 2012 _ 8 p.m.
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Storm watch upgraded to storm warning as deep low pressure on course to arrive in south overnight and overspread all regions tomorrow

No change in the forecasts, time to tie down the trampolines and check to your east to northeast for possible wind-driven debris that could potentially hit your parked vehicle(s) or property ... either move those or remove the hazards if possible ... objects in storm winds will be generally moving towards the WSW in other words, a very small number of locations in exposed locations on east coast at tidal elevations may want to consider precautions for high tides as water levels could be running as much as a metre above tide tables. All other details as per the main forecast issued earlier.

One note on the extended forecast ... the weekend could feature an interval of heavier rain on Saturday as low pressure tries to push northwest across Ireland, so we will increase predicted weekend rainfalls to 10-30 mms. The compensation appears to be a somewhat improved outlook for early May.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 25 April, 2012
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Storm warning for Leinster, Munster and nearby parts of Connacht and Ulster. Some local rainfalls today and tomorrow in the 30-60 mm range, especially for inland southeast, and very strong winds from E-NE gusting to about 60 mph (100 km/hr) in exposed areas later today.

TODAY ... Rain, becoming heavy at times, will gradually spread across the south and east in strong east to northeast winds and there may be some locally heavy downpours, with sleet possible on higher ground (above 500m) as temperatures near sea level stay close to 6-8 C. Winds rapidly increasing to ENE 40-60 mph with some very strong gusts in exposed locations, very high tides likely around Dublin.

The stronger winds will spread more gradually into the west and north reaching NE 25-45 mph except higher in a few outflow channels such as Galway Bay. Hills in Connacht may block out these winds from some locations at times. The rain will spread slowly north and northwest but Donegal, Derry and some nearby parts of other counties may remain dry except for local drizzle, and some sunshine may continue there. It will be chilly despite that with highs similarly 6-8 C.

TONIGHT ... The inland southeast and some parts of the east will see a steady downpour with embedded thunderstorms and totals of 30-60 mms of rain by late this evening or early morning, as winds continue quite strong from the northeast at 35-55 mph in exposed locations, adding a chill to temperatures in the 6-8 C range and 3-6 C on higher ground. Spot flooding may develop especially from about Cork east to Wexford and perhaps as far north as Offaly to Dublin/Meath. Rain will spread over most other northern counties except possibly north Donegal, but may become sporadic in the west, in northeast to north winds about 20-40 mph, and lows near 3-5 C. Some sleet could develop on northern hills late tonight.

THURSDAY ... Very cool and windy with continued rain becoming sleety at times, snow a definite risk on higher ground as temperatures could fall to between 2 and 5 C (high 5-8 C near sea level). Some parts of Donegal and Derry could be in a dry zone at times, with some sunshine or at least blue skies off to north, and this would allow temperatures to rise a bit higher there. Winds moderating to NE 30-50 mph early and then NNE 20-40 mph later, but still adding quite a chill particularly near east coast. A further 10 to 30 mms of rain possible in eastern counties, with a drying trend slowly setting in for parts of the west and south. Saturated fields could flood out onto nearby roads after this much prolonged rainfall around Meath, Kildare, Laois, Carlow, parts of Wicklow and west Dublin.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, still some drizzle or sleet in a cold northeast wind but with longer sunny breaks in parts of the northwest. Lows 2-4 C and highs 7-9 C with the chance of some very low daytime temperatures on higher ground in the southeast. Winds moderating somewhat to 20-35 mph. Some inland locations could moderate somewhat but now Donegal and Derry could catch the outer edges of even colder air offshore and see some wintry showers especially on higher ground.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, some outbreaks of drizzle or sleet, cold, lows about 1-4 C and highs 7-10 C. Light to moderate northerly winds at times.

SUNDAY into MONDAY ... A secondary low from France is expected to drift northwest into Ireland before weakening, and this could spread rain back into the southeast at times on Saturday night or Sunday, but it could turn out just low cloud and/or drizzle with some clearing further north and west. The chance of this rainfall becoming heavier than 10 mms is about 50-60% and heavier than 30 mms about 30%. There is some chance the event will not materialize and an improved scenario could develop. Models have several rather different solutions this morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... With this much uncertainty at days 5-6, beyond Monday the most likely outcome seems to be generally cool and somewhat unsettled but with the potential for some dry days and sunshine with those at times, in a generally slack circulation featuring light east or northeast winds frequently but the uncertainty around this remains high.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The pool of unseasonably cold air in the east has spread almost to Newfoundland now, dropping temperatures across the western Maritimes and eastern Quebec, but as cloud breaks up somewhat further west, temperatures are recovering under strong late April sunshine to near 10 C. Some wintry showers continue near Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario, snow on higher ground. A complex disturbance over the northern plains states is bringing outbreaks of rain that trend to sleet or wet snow near Lake Superior, and all of this is slowly sliding southeast to set up a long frontal boundary situation for the northeast states later this week with sleety rain likely for several days. The plains states will be warm anywhere south of this frontal boundary trending to hot and dry in parts of the southwest. Outbreaks of showery rain are moving across the Rockies into southern Alberta and the warmth there is slowly dissipating as slack fronts move south towards Montana.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was a wet day with heavy showers at times, highs of about 15 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 26 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Windy although the stronger winds towards the north and west, with a reduction in wind speeds later in all regions, NNE 25-45 mph decreasing to 20-35 mph. Some breaks in the overcast away from the east coast where rain may continue at times, 5-10 mms further in some places. Otherwise precipitation will become light and rather sporadic with some wintry mixture on higher ground, slight accumulations. Highs 7-9 C but it may feel a lot colder in exposed locations, 3-5 C on higher terrain.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some light drizzle or sleet, lows 2-4 C, feeling colder in steady NNE backing to NNW winds of 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud west, overcast east, some drizzly or sleety rain in places, little accumulation (2-5 mms in southeast from sea effect). Some wintry showers over northern hills. Highs 7-10 C (4-7 C on higher ground).

SATURDAY ... Foggy in places to start, drizzly, some brighter intervals, chilly with lows -1 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Chance of rain in the south, models are still scattered in their guidance, so about a 60% chance of some rain in light to moderate east winds, and 30% chance of heavier amounts and moderate to strong east winds. This situation should be less uncertain later today or by the Friday morning forecast. Highs about 12 C. At the moment, we have a menu of choices for Sunday that include strong wind and heavy rain, light rain and fog, variable cloud and south coast drizzle, and milder partly cloudy with light winds. The balance of probability would say cloudy with drizzle and some rain in south.

MONDAY ... Any rain clearing away with hazy mixture of cloud and sun, a bit milder in southeast winds but may be chilly near east coast due to sea breezes. Highs generally 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... A more settled period should follow, milder air will slowly work west across Britain but a cooler pool remaining near Ireland and Biscay will perhaps interact with this to produce cloud and some drizzle rather than any strong warming trend, at least for a while, but there could be some slight warming later in the week (to about 14-17 C). Nights may remain rather chilly. Fog is likely to be part of the picture too.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Somewhat milder in the northeast states and Great Lakes with showers ahead of a cold front dropping southeast, the leading edge of arctic air from northern Manitoba into northern Ontario bringing snow flurries and temperatures not far from freezing. This air mass will push a bit further south then stall, leading to a frontal boundary of long duration over the weekend and chilly east winds. Further south, warm to hot and humid from Georgia west to Texas and some distance north into the central plains, with showery rains further north. Widespread cloud and rain near the Rockies from north of Denver well into western Canada, snow at very high elevations at first but coming lower down as the air mass cools.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wet and rather mild in a southeast wind, rain ended about 4 p.m. but no clearing followed, temperatures steady near 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 27 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few brighter intervals in central to southwest counties. Outbreaks of light rain from east Ulster south to Waterford could become sleety especially on higher ground, but accumulations light, 2-4 mms. Another area of showers in the northwest could become wintry on higher ground and snow on hills is possible, probably melting hail showers lower down, all of this with steady N winds 15-35 mph and chilly highs 7-10 C (even colder on higher terrain where highs could be 4-6 C).

TONIGHT ... Remnants of drizzly light rain could turn more to sleet while dying out to a widespread mist or ground fog in northeast winds 10-15 mph, quite cold especially if skies clear inland for a while, lows -2 to +3 C. Frost may develop in lower elevations well inland.

SATURDAY ... Morning mist or fog, drizzle, and quite chilly, then some sunshine later morning and mid-day, with the exception of a few showers moving westward (this could be anywhere between a sprinkling of light showers to moderate hail showers with some thunder depending on how things evolve) ... highs 8-11 C. Winds NE 15-30 mph becoming more gusty in the southeast than elsewhere.

SUNDAY ... Another cold and perhaps frosty start with ground fog and low cloud spreading in, morning lows -2 to +3 C, then increasing cloud and a strengthening ENE wind reaching 30-50 mph south coast, 20-40 mph elsewhere, and periods of rain or drizzle. Amounts 15-30 mms southeast trending to 5-10 mms inland northwest and Ulster, possibly dry Donegal.

MONDAY ... The rainfall should persist overnight into Monday then will be retracted south as the low drifts away in that direction, but some continued moderate falls 10-20 mms are possible in the south. Gradual clearing from the north will follow and winds will ease to NE 10-20 mph. Lows 6-8 C and highs 10-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... A very gradual warming trend is likely with generally east to southeast winds, occasionally backing to northeast. There could be further outbreaks of light rain in the far south mainly. Highs generally rising to the mid-teens or so. Another cold spell could follow, so plant with caution.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Unseasonably cold with moderate northerly winds from the Great Lakes to western Newfoundland, highs 2-5 C near U.S. border, 5-10 C inland northeast U.S. and New England, 10-15 C east coast. Eastern Newfoundland will have mild southerly winds and rain, 12-15 C.

Further west, outbreaks of rain or sleet in the western Great Lakes and most of the prairies, turning colder in most places with winds backing to northeast. Heavy showers and thunderstorms in the central plains states with near normal temperatures, but hot and humid in the south central and southeast states, hot and dry in the southwest. Improving on the west coast from partly to mostly sunny later.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was cloudy to start with drizzle, but gradually turned partly cloudy by late afternoon. It was rather warm, 15-16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 28 April, 2012
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ALERT for slight risk of heavy rainfall on Sunday into Monday, most areas will receive less than the 25 mms that I use for alerts, but a few locations could see that much. Also slight risk of thunder and hail this morning mainly from about Westmeath to Kildare and Wicklow.

TODAY ... Highly variable conditions to start, some places foggy, others sunny and a few with hail showers or drizzle, but the greatest risk of the active showers remains inland Leinster to the Wicklow hills. Some could produce hail and thunder, but there will also be less intense cells that produce sleety or drizzly rain. Much of the west will likely escape this during the morning but one or two heavier cells could drift that far eventually, and also a separate area of showers could develop in west Mayo. Winds for most locations will be light to moderate E-NE but the gradient near the Wexford and Waterford coasts will be 15-30 mph. Highs 8-11 C with some of the lower temperatures likely in the inland southeast. Conditions in higher elevations could be very chilly, expect temperatures near 5 C and any showers could become wintry.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches becoming more widespread, possible icy sections on some roads well inland as frost develops and temperatures fall to about -2 C (otherwise lows near 2-4 C).

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine at first, this continuing much of the day in the north, low cloud spreading into the south followed by increasing northeast winds veering to east 30-50 mph by evening, periods of rain or drizzle, average amounts 10-15 mms, local maximum 25 mms. This rain may not reach much further north than Galway to Athlone to Dundalk.

SUNDAY NIGHT and MONDAY ... Rain continuing, becoming intermittent, possibly never reaching north coast but tending to spread out into patchy bands as winds back again to northeast 20-40 mph. Temperatures steady around 8-10 C, then rising a bit where the sun breaks through Monday afternoon to 12 C. Further rainfalls about 5-10 mms.

TUESDAY ... Some rain or drizzle could continue in south, variable cloud further north with a better chance of sunshine in Ulster and north Connacht, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-11 C in moderate east to northeast winds.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some bright or sunny intervals, local drizzle or light rain near south coast at times, moderate east winds, lows 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder with some sunshine, then a band of showers moving south and southwest with possible thunder, highs generally about 13-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There appears to be a significant cold spell developing and it could bring unseasonable wintry showers, northerly to northeasterly winds and highs no better than 10 C and possibly in the range 5-8 C for some parts. Frosts are likely in many areas in this pattern. The duration is uncertain but could be a week to ten days.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain and some thunderstorms in the central plains marks a divide between hot and humid in the south central states and cool, cloudy with east winds further north. This front is extending to the east coast around southern Virginia and anything north of it will remain very cool all weekend. Arctic air is flooding south into New England and Atlantic Canada where highs will only reach 3-6 C at best. Snow flurries can be expected especially near the Gulf of St Lawrence. Eastern Newfoundland will start mild but turn colder late in the day.

The west remains rather inactive but temperatures range from below normal in B.C. to above normal in most of the southwest, fronts between these air masses are rather weak with a few showers likely in Nevada and Utah.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was cloudy with a few sunny breaks, and little if any rain although you could feel the occasional drop from rather thin layers of strato-cumulus. It was colder than recent days with highs near 10C.

Check the relevant threads for updates about today's showers and Sunday's rainfall, as yours truly will soon be asleep for a good number of hours (or perhaps a bad number).

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 29 April, 2012
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ALERT (somewhat marginal) for rainfalls of 25-35 mms and wind gusts to about 55 mph (90 km/hr) in parts of the south and east later today and overnight into Monday.

TODAY ... Hazy sunshine at first, this continuing much of the day in the north and west, with low cloud spreading into the south followed by increasing northeast winds 20-40 mph, veering to east 30-50 mph by evening, periods of rain or drizzle, average amounts 10-15 mms, local maximum 25 mms. This rain may not reach much further north than Galway to Athlone to Dundalk. Highs 9-11 C (may reach 12-14 C in west). Sleet or snow on higher summits of southeast may not be visible by Monday due to melting overnight.

Higher than tide table sea levels can be expected all day but in particular at the late afternoon or evening high tides on east and south coasts. I expect the surplus to be about 0.5 metres. Fortunately, we are about midway from new moon to full moon which probably reduces the impact somewhat.

TONIGHT and MONDAY ... Rain continuing, becoming intermittent, possibly never reaching all parts of north coast (Donegal in particular) but tending to spread out into patchy bands as winds back again to northeast 20-40 mph. Temperatures steady around 8-10 C, then rising a bit where the cloud thins out on Monday afternoon, to 12 C. Further rainfalls about 10-20 mms. Some spot flooding is possible especially in the southeast.

TUESDAY ... Some rain or drizzle could continue in south and east and a further interval of heavier rain is possible with 10-20 mms in places, some thunder with it, variable cloud further north, morning lows 4-6 C and highs 8-11 C in moderate east to northeast winds 20-35 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some bright or sunny intervals, local drizzle or light rain near south coast at times, moderate east winds 15-30 mph, lows 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder with some sunshine, then a band of showers moving south and southwest with possible thunder, highs generally about 14-15 C. Winds becoming more northeast as colder air arrives.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There still appears to be a significant cold spell developing although the guidance has not really continued as strong on this feature, but there may well be some wintry showers in places and frost, during the second week of May.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy thunderstorms will set up for much of today in a frontal zone from Oklahoma to Tennessee and northern North Carolina. South of this, very warm and humid, highs 27-32 C. North of the fronts, cool with east winds, and a secondary band of rain or sleet further north, but drying out across the Great Lakes and inland northeast under cool sunshine, highs there about 9-12 C. Rather cloudy in the far west with isolated showers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ...Saturday was a cloudy, humid day with sprinkles of rain but not much if any measurable, highs 13-15 C. Expecting a bit of sun at times on Sunday.

Look for an update on the unusual westward-moving low around 6 p.m., but before that you can probably get updates from the discussion thread. The 0600h location of this low was in northwest France inland just south of the Channel Islands with motion becoming more west-north-west after moving steadily northwest all day (from eastern Spain originally). Most models show the centre coming no closer than 150 miles south of Waterford but the heavier rain bands will tend to drift closer to Ireland as the system approaches and there may be quite variable rainfalls -- some places in France have seen 40-50 mms from the system. Winds were gusting to 110 km/hr near the Scilly Isles west of Cornwall at 0600h.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday 29 April 2012 _ 6:15 p.m.
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Heavy sleet trending to snow above 300m in southeast counties this evening should gradually ease for elevations 300-450m as these precip zones will tend to rise, similar effects may be noted later in south central and southwest although fewer (human) observers situated at these elevations there.

Otherwise, for lower elevations, would expect this system to deliver quite variable amounts of rain as orographic effects and banding disturb the moisture, higher amounts (20-35 mms) likely on east-facing slopes and in wider gaps open to northeast, lesser amounts can be expected in "rainshadow" locations as well as the north generally, trending to near zero amounts in north Donegal.

Temperatures tend to drop to 5-7 C near sea level with the onset of the rain and to 3-5 C higher up, and these values should recover slightly as the system gradually weakens overnight, moving from south of Land's End in Cornwall presently to about 300 miles south of Cork by morning. Wind gusts are not likely to increase much if at all from current levels except for an increase in Kerry north to Galway as the system spreads in there. Maximum gusts are likely to be about 45-50 knots or 55-60 mph in highly exposed parts of southeast and in the lower terrain between the Wicklow Mountains and western Laois.

A secondary band of moderate rain may follow in about 24 hours from the remnants of this system's "triple point" which is the frontal wave dragged up from the Mediterranean towards southeast England. That will be sheared apart overnight but remnants of it will then be pulled west across Ireland later Monday into Tuesday. The entire mess should be fully terminated by about Wednesday afternoon, followed by a couple of milder days and then the onset of what looks like a very chilly week to ten days, from about 5 May to mid-month. Temperatures could average 4-5 deg below normal in that period with frosts and hill snow especially in the north this time. Wintry showers trending to hail showers in lower elevations of south and central counties can be expected also.

Further updates as needed, but also check reports in relevant threads as the system extends further west this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 30 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy and becoming a bit milder with outbreaks of showery rain, once again rather variable in amounts with 10-20 mms likely in parts of the southeast, 5-10 mms on average most other places, 2-5 mms north. Some mist or fog over higher terrain, but also a few sunny breaks in the mix, winds ENE 15-30 mph becoming ESE later, highs 11-14 C, milder in the west central counties.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out for most, fog or mist, low cloud, lows 5-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Periods of rain may develop early morning southeast but with a few exceptions this rain should quickly become rather drizzly and amounts will only be 10-20 mms in coastal southeast, 5-10 mms some other south and central counties but somewhat patchy again. Winds ESE 15-30 mph and highs 12-15 C, once again mildest around Galway. By later in the day patchy showers mainly confined to Ulster but amounts light.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, some showers still possible but most places dry, milder again with lows 4-7 C and highs 13-16 C, milder in the west. Winds moderate east to southeast 15-25 mph.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, mild to warm, lows 3-6 C, highs 14-17 C, winds still from an easterly quarter backing gradually to northeast, which may make the east coast relatively cool. Isolated showers in Ulster.

FRIDAY ... Showers moving gradually south with a cooling trend in the north, highs around 10-12 C there, but one more mild to warm day for the south where showers may arrive later, highs 14-17 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unseasonably cool with patchy light rain that may be sleety on hills with a covering of snow possible on higher summits in the north, winds generally northerly, highs only 8-11 C at lower elevations and about 5-8 C higher up, some frosts but lows generally 2-4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This cold spell may dig in for about a week although it could also turn wet again due to a frontal boundary being energized with waves moving east this time to the south of Ireland.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe storms widespread today from about north Texas and Oklahoma east-north-east into Ohio valley. Hot and humid south of this frontal zone, rather chilly to north with winds from the east around an arctic high in central Quebec and northeast Ontario. Dry and cool in the northeast U.S. with rain tomorrow there. A separate frontal system moving inland tonight will bring widespread rain to B.C., Washington state and later Idaho, Montana and Alberta with mountain snows. Warm to hot and dry in the southwest states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a cloudy, somewhat milder day with highs about 15-16 C and rain has begun to fall this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 1 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain across the south and central counties will begin to break up to more isolated showers by mid-day, but there could be some thunder this morning and rainfalls of about 15-20 mms in Leinster and Munster. The north will be somewhat warmer in part because of more frequent breaks in the overcast later, while the south coast could see prolonged fog, drizzle and low cloud. Highs will range from 12 to 17 C with the warmer values in Connacht and west Ulster. Winds easterly 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of rain are likely ... some heavy rain may develop late overnight, tracking this across Britain today and models suggest it will fragment and move into Ulster, but there seems to be some chance that it will hold together as 15-25 mms of thundery rain that could hit closer to Leinster, updates to follow ... regardless, it will be breezy (ESE 15-30mph) and mild with some fog and variable amounts of rain, lows 7-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers and possibly one or two thunderstorms, moderate east winds and warmer in the north again, highs 13-17 C. Some persistent low cloud and fog in parts of south and east.

THURSDAY ... Showers near the south coast, some sunshine further north, not quite as breezy but still east 10-25 mph, lows 7-10 C and highs 13-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Turning colder in Ulster with showers, winds northeast 10-20 mph, otherwise variable cloud, some showers, staying rather mild in the south, highs 10-12 C north, 14-17 C south and central.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Including Monday, the weekend looks rather unpleasant with outbreaks of light rain at times, chilly temperatures, and a northeast wind that shouldn't be too strong or gusty but steady at 10-20 mph in most places. Highs each day in the 8-11 C range and lows 3-5 C but could be slight frost central counties with any clearing.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy storms continuing in the central plains states, Ohio valley and spreading into parts of the east-central states towards New York and southern New England later today. Hot and humid further south, but hot and dry in Texas as desert air pushes east, highs well up into the 30s in TX and OK. Rain also moving through the northern plains and southern prairies of Canada from the Rockies, where rain will become more showery but mixing with wet snow in higher elevations, a rain-snow mix also in the Calgary region of Alberta.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with spits of rain becoming rather steady rain this evening, chilly, highs only 10-12 C.

Watch for updates especially concerning rain potential for Wednesday both here and on discussion threads.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 2 May, 2012
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That heavier rain that I mentioned in the early morning forecast yesterday seemed to accelerate and moved through in the late afternoon or early evening, so that's come and gone now.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, some warm sunny intervals developing especially in western counties as east winds will tend to bring more cloud and a cooling sea effect to eastern counties ... isolated showers still possible, probably most places remaining dry. Highs 14-17 C except near 12 C east and south coasts. Winds E-SE 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT and THURSDAY ... Mild and cloudy with some clear intervals in the north, but showers and some thundershowers spreading across the south, some of this activity offshore so extent inland yet to be nailed down, probably not too far north of Cork and Waterford but potential for 10-20 mms of rain in the coastal regions. Warm away from the east and south coasts in east winds 10-20 mph, highs 13-16 C.

FRIDAY ... Ulster is likely to turn considerably cooler in northeast winds and occasional showers, northeast winds 15-25 mph, highs 9-12 C. Other regions should stay fairly warm at least until late afternoon, highs 13-16 C, late showers after a partly cloudy day with east winds 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers at first, becoming more widespread late in the day, chilly, morning lows near 2 C and highs 9-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with occasional showers, chilly, lows 2-4 C and highs about 9-11 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Cloudy, cool, periods of rain, highs near 10 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Continued cool and unsettled with the risk of more moderate or even heavy rain at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain or thunderstorms moving across the lower Great Lakes and the inland northeast states. Turning very warm and humid to the south of this frontal wave, highs 27-30 C. Very warm and dry in the south central states, highs 32-38 C. Periods of rain northern plains and southern prairies, trending to snow in higher elevations of foothills into central Rockies. Hot and dry in southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Variable cloud most of the day with a gradual clearing trend later, clear at present with a good view of the Moon and nearby Mars, earlier the high was about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 3 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Intervals of moderate rain will move across the south, but it should remain largely dry north of about the Shannon estuary to Wicklow. Rainfalls in the far south 10-20 mms. Cloudy with sunny breaks further north, and highs generally 14-16 C in moderate east winds 15-30 mph, milder in Connacht.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, a few more showers possible in the south, 2-4 mms and isolated showers elsewhere, lows 6-8 C in a northeast breeze of about 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY ... Turning sharply cooler in Ulster from early morning, then this cold front will move steadily south but arriving late enough that most other places will see highs of 13-15 C before it arrives ... highs only 8-10 C in Ulster ... some rain with the front and wintry showers developing on higher terrain by late Friday as temperatures drop further to about 4 C.

SATURDAY ... Although not too attractive a day, this may be the best of the holiday weekend with dry conditions for most, isolated wintry showers on northern hills, and isolated regular showers further south, but also some sunny breaks and in most places little if any accumulation of rain, winds from the northeast backing to north 10-20 mph, lows near 2 C with isolated morning frost, and highs near 9 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with a few brief sunny intervals but a chilly rain spreading gradually north and east across the country, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C. Rainfalls near 5 mms.

MONDAY ... Chilly with periods of rain that could become heavy and mix with sleet on higher ground. Lows near 4 C and highs near 9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Slight improvement after the Monday rainfall moves east on Tuesday then further outbreaks of rain in a continuing chilly pattern. Models hint at larger improvements in the week following (13th on) but this sort of pattern often comes with a series of false endings before the real ending, so this is basically just a faint hope at the moment.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms across northern New England but a more powerful wave moving into the Great Lakes from the northern plains states today, some severe storms around Chicago and Cleveland. Hot and humid to the south, although this very warm air has some transitional layers as it moves to the east coast due to residual southeast winds near the surface. Otherwise, the southern half of the U.S. will be hot and dry in a broad flow of desert origins, and the northwest into western Canada will be cool and showery as fronts move inland.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Rather chilly here on Wednesday with a few showers around, heavy at times in the morning, but then also some sunny breaks, highs only 9-10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 4 May, 2012
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TODAY ... A band of showers or steady rain is moving south from central Connacht and north Leinster to reach the south coast by mid to late afternoon. To the south of this feature, which brings with it about 3-5 mms of rain, continuing rather mild for a while with highs 13-15 C in a mixture of cloud and sunshine. The showers will drop temperatures to about 8-10 C following which they might recover slightly in the cooler air mass, mainly due to a slight clearing that follows, but winds also become brisk northeast 20-35 mph (25-45 mph coastal north).

TONIGHT ... Chilly with variable cloud cover, some isolated showers that could become wintry on northern hills. Also, watch for the slight risk of thunder and hail showers spreading inland from the Irish Sea towards dawn, in Meath or Dublin. Lows generally 2-4 C with slight frost possible well inland.

SATURDAY ... Isolated showers dying out during the morning, otherwise partly cloudy to sunny and cool, moderate E-NE winds adding a chill to daytime highs of only 9-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning frosts, then increasing cloud, showers becoming more of a steady rain in the southwest by late afternoon, some parts of the east and north remaining dry. Lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain spreading further east and north, becoming heavy at times, followed in south by low cloud and mist but some late clearing, as winds become southeast 20-35 mph. Potential for 10-20 mms rainfall and lows 3-5 C, highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending as showers then some clearing to follow, remaining rather chilly, highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Another rainstorm appears likely from the southwest peaking in intensity around Wednesday night into Thursday morning, potential for 20-35 mms rain. Temperatures steady near 10 C.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Windy and cold as the rain moves away, but some showers at times, slow clearing trend to follow. Highs stuck around 10-12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There could be a gradual improvement from that point onward, as higher pressure begins to build in from the west, but it may take a while to clear the blocked pattern completely.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain or thunderstorms continuing in lower Great Lakes but spreading a bit further to south towards NYC and southern New England. Foggy and cool to north of this when the rain finally ends, having given as much as 50-75 mms in places. Hot and humid to south from about PHL south, isolated thunderstorms. Another area of heavy rain or thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf region. Hot and dry again in Texas and southern plains states, desert southwest. Showers continuing in the northwest and parts of western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was a cloudy and cool day with some light rain at times, not very much accumulation, and highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 5 May, 2012
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Full moon occurs tonight at 0436h (towards sunrise) and it has been labelled as a "supermoon" because it occurs at perigee, making it appear a bit larger than usual.

TODAY ... Isolated showers or patchy drizzle during the morning, otherwise partly cloudy and cool, more frequent sunny breaks in parts of the north although increasing cloud there later, light to moderate E-NE winds mostly 10-20 mph adding a chill to daytime highs of only 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, potential for sharp frost where it does manage to clear (more likely in north), lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Chilly to start, then increasing cloud, showers becoming more of a steady rain in the southwest by late afternoon, some parts of the east and north remaining dry ... highs 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain spreading further east and north, becoming heavy at times, followed in south by low cloud and mist but some late clearing, as winds become southeast 20-35 mph. Potential for 10-20 mms rainfall and lows 3-5 C, highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain ending as showers then some clearing to follow, remaining rather chilly, highs 10-12 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Another rainstorm appears likely from the southwest peaking in intensity around Thursday morning west to afternoon or evening east, potential for 20-35 mms rain. Temperatures steady near 10 C but may push higher (12-15 C) briefly in south.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... As the rain moves away with a few residual showers at times near the south coast, a slow clearing trend is likely across the north, as winds veer around to the northwest then northeast. Highs stuck around 10-12 C. Further rain could follow near the south coast from trailing waves.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are now showing strong high pressure trying to push in but being held off to the west until it weakens, which will allow a further cold spell to push south around the middle of the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms continuing along a stalled frontal boundary in the inland northeast and Ohio valley, north-central plains. South of this, mainly hot and humid with isolated thunderstorms, trending to hot and dry from Texas west to inland California. Still rather showery in the northwest states and interior B.C. but a clearing trend on the coast where higher pressure is building up.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Yet another cloudy and cool day with light showers at times, highs near 12 C. Deciduous trees around here are still not fully in leaf which would be 2-3 weeks later than usual. Spring flowers have bloomed but rather look like they wish they hadn't.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 6 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny intervals trending to mostly overcast in both north and southwest, light east to southeast winds, isolated showers near coasts at first, with a steady rain slowly spreading inland this afternoon over western Munster. Highs 8-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, rain spreading gradually further northeast, fog developing, lows 3-7 C milder in southwest.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, total accumulations 10-20 mms, some thundery showers developing more likely in western counties, a few breaks in the overcast by afternoon or evening. Winds moderate southeast veering to south then southwest, eventually northerly (around Donegal winds will stay east and back to northeast). Highs 11-14 C milder in southwest.

TUESDAY ... Low cloud, drizzle in the morning then partial clearing with just isolated showers, some longer sunny intervals in west, lows 3-6 C and highs 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Periods of rain will develop again from the southwest, with several bursts of moderate or heavy rain possible, 20-40 mms potential. Winds generally easterly and temperatures steady near 10 or 12 C.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... Another brief clearing with moderate to strong northwest winds at times, then turning cold again by end of the weekend. Highs on Friday and Saturday near 13 C, on Sunday about 10 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Today will feature a major severe storm outbreak in parts of the central plains states, with a partly cloudy, warm day for the northeast, hot and humid across the south, hot and dry in Texas and the southwest. Mixed rain and wet snow over the Rockies from Wyoming north into Alberta and eastern B.C., clearing to sunshine on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a dry day for a change, with some sunny intervals despite a lot of cloud to north and east mainly, highs 14-16C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 7 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Outbreaks of rain (and possibly snow on summits) moving northeast will continue in parts of Leinster, Connacht and Ulster while partly cloudy, showery weather follows across Munster and will spread over most of the country later. While this may give some sunny intervals there are also some lines of heavy showers developing with risk of thunder by mid-day. Highs 7-10 C northeast to 12-15 southwest, about 11-12 C from Mayo to Dublin. Winds moderate southeast veering to southwest, 15-30 mph (stronger gusts possible on south coast). Total rainfalls (including what has already fallen) about 10-20 mms, spot amounts of 30 mms possible around Monaghan-Westmeath.

TONIGHT ... Mostly overcast, low cloud and mist developing, some patchy light rain or drizzle as winds turn more northerly. Chilly, lows 4-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with some breaks, occasional drizzle or light rain more persistent in Connacht and west Ulster, winds northerly 10-20 mph, chilly with highs in northwest only 8-10 C, trending to 12 C south and east coasts.

WEDNESDAY ... After a chilly and possibly a frosty start (lows -1 to +3 C) cloud and rain will spread in rather gradually from the south, and it may remain bright if not sunny across Ulster and north Connacht, even north Leinster for much of the day. Strong east winds developing near south coast by evening, otherwise rather light east winds all day, highs 9-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Rain could turn heavy at times in the south, and very cool for this time of year in strong northeast winds, 20-40 mph ... temperatures steady in the range of 7-9 C ... 15-30 mms rain possible.

FRIDAY ... Windy and partial clearing with showers more confined to southeast as winds become northerly backing to northwest 20-35 mph, highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is some chance of a slight break in the gloomy weather although it will require a rather fragile looking ridge to set up across the south and to hold off unsettled weather that looks likely to sweep in later Sunday. Highs would be about 13 C although still quite chilly at night. Then several days of windy, showery weather appear likely early the following week with highs around 11 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Continued heavy rainfalls and severe storms in many parts of the Midwest and Ohio valley today, with the northeast relatively settled and warm, although this rain is moving into the lower Great Lakes and upstate New York. A new area of widespread showers is developing in New Mexico and west Texas, where it is badly needed, and this should settle in for several days under a cut-off low in northern Mexico. That is also allowing higher pressure to settle onto the west coast and improving the weather in the northwest U.S. and British Columbia

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a pleasant and partly sunny day with highs near 16 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 8 May, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT ... Heavy rainfalls likely on Wednesday night and Thursday, 20-40 mms with rather cold northeast winds for most of the country (southeast may briefly warm up slightly).

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with some breaks developing, occasional drizzle or light rain more persistent in Connacht and west Ulster, winds northerly 10-20 mph, chilly with highs in northwest only 8-10 C, trending to 12 C south and east coasts. Sunshine may develop in some areas between slow-moving cloud formations, but best chance for that appears to be central counties from north to south.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals at first, frosty in parts of Ulster, north Leinster and inland Connacht, lows -2 to +3 C there, but around 3-7 C south and west coast regions, with rain possible after midnight as winds strengthen near the south coast to ESE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... After a chilly and possibly a frosty start cloud and rain will spread in rather gradually from the south, and it may remain bright if not sunny across Ulster and north Connacht, even north Leinster for much of the day. Strong east winds 25-45 mph developing near south coast by evening, otherwise rather light east winds all day, highs 9-12 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mms by midnight in parts of Munster, otherwise trace to 2 mms.

THURSDAY ... Rain could turn heavy at times in the south and later central to northeast regions with 20-40 mms, and very cool for this time of year in strong northeast winds, 20-40 mph ... temperatures steady in the range of 7-9 C for most regions, 10-13 C south coast and southeast ... 15-30 mms rain likely with potential for 40 mms in some locations (inland south to east).

FRIDAY ... Windy and partial clearing with showers more confined to southeast as winds become northerly backing to northwest 20-35 mph, lows 3-6 C and highs near 10 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is still a reasonable chance of a slight break in the gloomy weather on Saturday, although it will require a rather fragile looking ridge to set up across the south and to hold off unsettled weather that looks likely to sweep in later Sunday. Highs would be about 13 C although still quite chilly at night. Then several days of windy, showery weather appear likely early the following week with highs around 11 C. Forecasts then for Saturday, partly cloudy with sunny intervals, highs near 13 or 14 C, increasing cloud Sunday with rain later, highs near 12 C. Monday-Tuesday cloudy with showers, rather chilly with winds becoming northwest 15-30 mph, highs 9-11 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain and thunderstorms moving steadily east towards the east coast but not arriving in the major cities until later in the day, highs 17-20 C. Warm and humid across the southeast, widespread thundershowers in Texas, highs 24-27 C. Clear and dry most of the central plains and northern plains into northwest U.S., highs 20-23 C, ahead of a mostly dry cold front that will sweep across southern B.C. (rain further north drying out inland). Hot and dry in the southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a very warm day with increasing high cloud, highs near 20 C. We're expecting a largely dry cold front with similar temperatures to mid-afternoon then a sharp fall late "today" with a secondary cold front that may have a few showers before a much cooler day on Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 9 May, 2012
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls in gusty near-gale-force winds overnight and Thursday, heaviest in a zone from Kerry northeast to Dublin and Meath where 30-40 mms possible, snow or sleet likely on hills in Connacht, Ulster and highest elevations elsewhere. ... ADVANCE ALERT for possible gale to storm force gusts in north on Monday and/or Tuesday.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although somewhat brighter in north, as rain spreads sporadically north in parts of Munster (5-10 mms near south coast). Winds slowly increasing to moderate easterly for most but 30-45 mph by late afternoon south coast. Chilly with highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy rain spreading rapidly across the country with 20-40 mms potential for the event, including later rainfall during the day, amounts heavier Kerry northeast to Dublin-Meath, gale force northeast winds in most regions 30-50 mph, but veering to southeast around Waterford, Wexford towards dawn, risk of snow or sleet on high terrain, lows 4-7 C for most at lower elevations.

THURSDAY ... Rain continuing but becoming more showery with some hail or sleet possible especially in Connacht and west Ulster ... brighter intervals may develop from Cork east to Wexford but hail and thunder could then rapidly develop also ... highs generally 7-9 C but 10-13 C in southeast (basically anywhere south of the track of low pressure will see the milder readings and a greater risk of thunderstorms). Winds across Connacht and Ulster remaining northeast 30-50 mph backing to northerly, but becoming south then southwest briefly in parts of Munster, Leinster, before veering sharply to northwest, variable speeds but some strong gusts.

FRIDAY ... Windy and quite cold, mixed wintry showers possible early morning in northwest, and isolated rain or hail showers elsewhere, before brighter intervals develop in northwest winds 25-45 mph. Morning lows 3-5 C and highs 9-13 C milder in south coast districts.

SATURDAY ... With any luck this will be a welcome respite from both wind and rain with partly cloudy to sunny conditions and light westerly winds except moderate WSW near north coast, where cloud more likely. Lows could be frosty to start (-1 to +3 C) and afternoon highs 10-13 C. Rain likely in northwest by late in the day.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain spreading across most of the northwest and making some progress south before evening, but some places in the southeast could remain dry, winds increasing to SW 30-50 mph and rainfalls 10-20 mms in the north, lows 5-8 C and highs 9-12 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... Strong winds likely, with potential for 40-65 mph in northern coastal regions, 30-55 mph west Munster and exposed locations further south, with frequent showers, some thunder and hail, and highs around 11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Further unsettled and chilly weather appears likely as the pattern continues to play the game of "possible improvement in ten days" against the known unreliability of the models after eight days. Sooner or later this game usually ends with an overdue improvement and I'm currently guessing that this may come in the last third of May (this year though).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain and seasonable temperatures will continue in the northeast states but clearing is spreading east behind this system to dry out the Great Lakes and Ohio valley in advance of a milder southerly flow that will set in towards the central plains and Rockies towards the Canadian west. A cold front will drop temperatures sharply later today in parts of Alberta and western Montana, Idaho and it has already turned cool in Washington state, northern Oregon, and B.C. This front will not move much further south as a weak ridge is trapped between it and a large area of rain over Texas which is keeping temperatures unseasonably cool in some parts of west Texas and southern New Mexico -- 15-20 C where 25-30 C is normal.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday turned cooler in stages with a dry cold front spreading high cloud in at mid-day then a secondary front with mountain showers but no rain locally, so the high was late morning at about 18 C then it stayed around 14 C until dropping further to 6-8 C this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 10 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Although most of this system's rain has now fallen, a further 3-5 mms can be expected in some regions, and there is a risk of thunder or hail showers developing in the southeast especially if skies brighten before mid-day, however some places may just remain under low cloud and drizzle there. Highs will edge up to about 12 C near Wexford but otherwise 8-10 C looks to be the high accompanied by moderate northeast backing to northerly winds -- these will only be strong later in coastal Connacht and west Ulster and eventually in Clare and Kerry. Somewhat variable southwest winds will prevail for the morning in the southeast and there could be isolated strong gusts if thunderstorms develop.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with late clearing, some residual drizzle turning to sleet on northern hills, feeling very cold in strong northerly backing to northwesterly winds 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY ... Brighter intervals in the morning, widespread but brief showers developing mid-day, wintry on some northern hills, winds NW 25-45 mph, chilly with highs 9-11 C. Rainfall amounts generally trace to 2 mms.

SATURDAY ... Morning frost possible where overnight cloud clears before morning, then variable cloud, some longer sunny intervals possible in the south, slight chance of drizzle or light rain in the far north ... less windy ... morning lows -2 to +3 C and afternoon highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain spreading across Connacht, Ulster and some distance into Clare and north Leinster. It may remain dry further south, although cloudy, with increasing southwest winds becoming strong and gusty by evening. Rainfalls 5-10 mms in the northwest, trace to 3 mms central and northeast. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C. Winds reaching 30-50 mph or somewhat stronger by evening.

MONDAY ... Windy and rather cold again with winds veering to WNW 25-45 mph, still a risk of an interval of stronger winds in Donegal, wintry showers developing in the north, rain or hail with thunder further south. Temperatures steady around 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Continued rather cold and unsettled with frequent showers most of the week. Slight improvements appear possible later in the month. I'm optimistic about the summer despite this long unsettled spell (or perhaps because of it, can't be like this all year) but will hold off on a summer forecast until I finish some number crunching here.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain and fog moving through eastern Canada but clearing and rather cool for the Great Lakes and northeast U.S., highs generally low to mid teens. Further west, very warm and sunny in a broad southwest flow from the desert southwest where the air mass starts out near 30 C and only cools slightly even by the time it reaches Lake Superior, but around there it runs into a much colder air mass and chilly lake breezes. Texas is almost covered now in cloud and unseasonably cool weather except near the southern extreme, with widespread heavy rains. This spills back west about as far as Tuscon AZ so that southern Arizona and south-central New Mexico are also quite cool for mid-May, most of the rain is confined to the Mexican side of the border. Meanwhile, after one cool day the west coast is beginning to warm up again.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was sunny and very breezy (W 30-40 mph) with chilly highs near 12 C. There were towering cumulus buildups to the north but clear skies overhead and south. Looks like a warm spell ahead, as heights rise here.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 11 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Showers at times for Connacht, west Ulster and some other districts with a few containing hail or thunder, and snow on higher summits, in blustery NNW winds 20-40 mph. Feeling very cold in the wind, but some more pleasant sunny intervals later in east and south. Highs 8-11 C at lower elevations and 4-7 C at higher elevations.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals as the showers slowly die out and become more confined to the northwest coast, frost well inland, lows -2 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Morning frost possible where overnight cloud clears before morning, then variable cloud, some longer sunny intervals possible in the south, slight chance of drizzle or light rain in the far north ... less windy, especially across the south, moderate westerly winds at times in the north ... afternoon highs 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers or periods of rain spreading across Connacht, Ulster and some distance into Clare and north Leinster. It may remain dry further south, although cloudy, with increasing southwest winds becoming strong and gusty by evening. Rainfalls 5-10 mms in the northwest, trace to 3 mms central and northeast. Lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C. Winds reaching 30-50 mph or somewhat stronger by evening.

MONDAY ... Windy and rather cold again with winds veering to WNW 25-45 mph, still a risk of an interval of stronger winds in Donegal, wintry showers developing in the north, rain or hail with thunder further south. Temperatures steady around 7-9 C.

TUESDAY ... Further showers, moderate NW winds continuing although some improvements later, lows 3-6 C and highs 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, still a few showers in the north mainly, less windy with lows 2-5 C and highs 10-13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It appears that another spell of unsettled, chilly weather can be expected around the following weekend, so the reasonably pleasant weather mid-week will probably deteriorate over Thursday until this unsettled spell sets up on Friday, lasting several days, but the indications beyond that look a bit more promising.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showery in eastern Canada but settled over most of the eastern time zone of Canada and the U.S., from the Great Lakes south, with near normal temperatures. Warm and dry in parts of the central plains with a rather weak cold front cutting into the northern plains and central Rockies, but this followed by seasonable and mainly sunny weather on the west coast. Heavy rain and storms continue across most of Texas into southwest Louisiana.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny, breezy, highs near 15 C on Thursday, as a warm spell develops (looking for about 25 C by the weekend here).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 12 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunshine will be dominant to start except near the west and north coasts where partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail ... although there may be some increase in cloud for most regions later, it could remain mostly sunny in Dublin and parts of the southeast and south ... drizzly light showers may develop in the more extensive cloud for west and north but amounts will be slight. The main feature for all regions will be much lighter winds, making it a really pleasant change, and highs will probably top off near 13 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals will continue across the south while cloud will be widespread in central and northern districts. Winds will gradually increase which likely means that lowest temperatures in the clear south will occur in the evening with a rise thereafter from 2-4 C to about 6 C, while the north remains around 6-8 C with some light rain at times in 20-40 mph WSW winds.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, windy and showery, but there could be some brighter intervals at times in the south. Winds WSW 30-50 mph in exposed locations (rising to 40-60 mph late in Donegal). Highs 10-12 C and on average about 5-10 mms of rain.

MONDAY ... Windy and turning slightly cooler during the day with widespread blustery showers, hail and thunder, some snow on higher summits by later in the day. Lows 5-7 C and highs 8-10 C, winds WNW 30-50 mph (40-60 mph at times in north).

TUESDAY ... Further showers, cool, blustery at times, lows 3-6 C and highs about 10 C, winds NW 20-40 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, less windy, just isolated showers with some places dry, highs near 12 C.

OUTLOOK ... Another period of cool, unsettled weather will follow, and the weekend of 19th-20th looks rather showery from this distance. Still looks promising for the longer term as the large-scale features are becoming more zonal.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers moving through the Gulf states all weekend, may affect play on Sunday at the TPC in northern Florida. Texas will be drying out in most parts but some scattered storms will redevelop. A weaker system lies across parts of the Midwest but is dying out with little temperature contrast to fuel it, and from there north and west the weather is improving rapidly to warm and dry. The northeast states should also enjoy a warm and dry weekend in most cases.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and about 18 C on Friday with mid-20s expected over the weekend here. You deserve it more than me, but life can be so unfair.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 13 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Increasing cloud across the south, followed by showers, winds becoming stronger (SW 20-40 mph) ... cloudy with showers or periods of rain across the north, moderate SW winds becoming strong (35-55 mph) by afternoon and evening, some severe gusts possible in exposed parts of Donegal. Rainfalls in the north 5-10 mms, trace to 5 mms south. Highs around 13 C in the south and 10 C in the north.

TONIGHT ... Continued windy and showery, with some dry intervals, winds remaining rather strong WSW 30-50 mph, lows 4-7 C. About 3-5 mms rain.

MONDAY ... Any morning dry intervals or sunshine brief, then showers becoming widespread in W-NW winds 25-45 mph, somewhat colder again with the risk of hail and thunder especially for Connacht and west Ulster ... highs near 9 C north and 11 C south. Rainfalls 3-5 mms.

TUESDAY ... Not much change, just slightly less windy and perhaps a few more dry intervals, but passing showers giving 2-4 mms in many places. Lows about 3 C and highs about 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy with longer sunny intervals in the south and east then increasing high cloud. Only a few isolated showers mainly near the north coast at first, and then near the southwest coast late in the day. Morning lows -1 to +3 C and afternoon highs 10-12 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, details not that clear yet given a spread of outcomes on different models, but could involve an interval of stronger east to northeast winds. Some potential for a heavy rainfall of 20-40 mms but more certainly 10-20 mms. Highs around 10 C, so rather chilly.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvement although Saturday could remain unsettled as the system slowly meanders away.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain or thunderstorms in the southeast, could delay later portions of the golf event from Jacksonville FL. Clearing across most of Texas and the south central states, scattered thunderstorms in New Mexico and southeast Colorado. Otherwise, most of the central and western regions warm and dry, highs into the 20s most places as far north as central portions of western Canada. The northeast, meanwhile, is under a weak system that will bring a few showers into an otherwise dry and cloudy pattern with near normal temperatures.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a warm and sunny day with highs around 21 C locally, warmer further inland. Sunday is expected to be a repeat with a high of about 23 C. Over here it is our version of Mother's Day.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 14 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy with showers becoming more frequent later this morning, some heavy with hail and thunder, and rather chilly in moderate northwest winds 20-40 mph (some higher gusts possible near active shower cells). Highs 10-12 C. Average rainfalls just 2-4 mms but potential for up to 10 mms in some heavier showers.

TONIGHT ... Showers less frequent and some clear intervals developing, moderate northwest winds and cool, lows around 3-5 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, occasional showers (1-3 mms on average), still rather breezy and cool (NW 15-30 mph). Highs 9-12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A clear and potentially frosty start, lows -2 to +3 C, then sunny with cloudy intervals, highs near 11 C. Winds becoming light.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Outbreaks of rain near south coast may move further north, chilly east winds, lows 3-5 mm and highs 9-11 C. At present, rainfall potential looks to be about 10-20 mms into Friday, but there is some potential for 20-40 mms.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cloudy with some breaks more likely in the north, rain becoming more showery, cool. Highs around 11-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is some hope for improvement in the following week (21st to 27th) as a settled and warmer easterly flow pattern develops.

I am working on my summer forecast and hope to have that ready by Friday 18th.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A few heavy storms in west Texas today, and unseasonably cool in parts of north Texas, New Mexico ... otherwise, most of the western and central U.S. and adjacent west-central Canada are enjoying a warm, dry pattern with highs near 25 C around the U.S.-Canada border to 35-38 C in the desert southwest, and 20-23 C near the coast. ... this warm, dry weather extends a good distance east towards New England while rain is moving through the east-central states and may reach New York City late today, but highs remain on the warm side in this region (22-25 C).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a warm, sunny day with highs around 23 C locally and 30 C further inland.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 15 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy with another round of scattered showers, some becoming rather heavy with hail or thunder ... 2-4 mms on average, a few places could see 10 mms ... highs only 9-11 C in moderate NW winds in the range of 20-35 mph.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, showers less widespread and becoming dry for most, frost in a few spots as lows drop to -1 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny to start, increasing cloud especially over Connacht where some rain may develop in the afternoon spreading into Ulster ... highs around 10-12 C ... rainfalls 2-5 mms west but zero to 2 mms central and northeast.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, 10-15 mms on average, in moderate east winds, lows near 6 C and highs near 12 C (may be somewhat colder in some parts of east). Winds east 15-35 mph.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, further rain or showers, also some brighter intervals spreading across north where somewhat milder. Lows near 6 C and highs around 11 C south to 15 C north. Winds east-north-east about 20 mph.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is a chance of rain at times especially in the south but it may turn out reasonably dry in the north, with the flow generally staying easterly ... highs in the range of 10-15 C with mildest potential in parts of west Ulster and north Connacht.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... In general, the trend does look improved next week with the general theme being high pressure nearby or to northwest promoting a dry and seasonable east to northeast flow pattern, although perhaps with some variations as troughs develop. Could see the temperature rising into the higher teens at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... East coast showery or periods of rain with highs generally near 20 C. In Texas, the showers are moving southeast and becoming more confined to regions around San Antonio, Austin and the Gulf coast. Otherwise, almost all of the U.S. and adjacent southern Canada under the influence of a sprawling region of warm, dry weather that reaches its peak in the interior west where it has turned quite hot (30-35 C). These temperatures spread out into the plains states but it actually becomes cooler towards the south and this is also increasingly below regional averages there, but reasonably warm at 20-25 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was sunny and very warm to hot, with highs around 25 C. Cloud spreading in overnight and expecting a dry cold front on Tuesday to drop our temperatures back to more normal levels in the mid-teens.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 16 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny intervals this morning, fading behind increasing high cloud in the east by mid-afternoon, but cloudy at first in west, although some bright intervals before light rain begins (2-4 mms), this mainly affecting Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 10-12 C. Winds generally light becoming SSE backing later to ESE 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... Further light rain gradually spreading east but tending to die out across the south after midnight, cool but no frost likely, lows 5-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, possibly a bit heavier in the north but rather sporadic in general (3-5 mms), highs 9-11 C in light to moderate east winds.

FRIDAY ... Rain or drizzle at times, cloudy and cool, lows 4-7 C and highs around 10-13 C. Winds ESE 10-20 mph. Rainfalls 5-10 mms on average.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain (5-10 mms, potential for 20 mms) with chilly ENE winds 20-35 mph, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C possibly a bit higher in Donegal and Derry, and feeling very chilly in some parts of the east where winds may be higher near the sea.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, further rain or drizzle, winds becoming NE 20-40 mph and temperatures in a narrow range 7-10 C although some chance of milder readings where clouds break slightly.

MONDAY ... Further showers and little change in the wind or temperatures but any clearing may bring somewhat improved highs.

OUTLOOK ... This blocking pattern is continuing to extend itself a day or two further into the 8-10 day period every so often in the guidance, although the end result seems to favour more settled weather with continued east to northeast winds, which would have to mean some increase in daytime temperatures with the strong late May sunshine, possibly a few days towards the end of the month will get into the near normal 15-20 C range.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers moving off the east coast of the U.S., and into parts of eastern Canada, with heavy rainfalls in the southeast states. Otherwise, most of the U.S. will be sunny and relatively warm trending to very warm in the northern plains states and Rockies, desert southwest. A few showers on a weak cold front in central Alberta and B.C., and turning cooler on the coast although dry and sunny.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was sunny with moderate amounts of high cloud and the sea breeze was much stronger keeping highs near 17 C locally ... it was still in the mid-20s further inland. Clear and somewhat cool at present (8 C).

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 17 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, possibly a bit heavier in the north but rather sporadic in general (3-5 mms but possibly 5-10 mms inland Connacht), highs 9-11 C in light to moderate east winds. Some mist or fog near coasts and on hills.

TONIGHT and FRIDAY ... Rain or drizzle at times, cloudy and cool, lows 4-7 C and highs around 10-13 C. Winds ESE 15-25 mph. Rainfalls 5-10 mms on average.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with occasional rain (5-10 mms, potential for 20 mms) with chilly ENE winds 20-35 mph, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C possibly a bit higher in Donegal and Derry, and feeling very chilly in some parts of the east where wind speeds may be higher near the sea.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, further rain or drizzle, winds becoming NE 20-40 mph and temperatures in a narrow range, lows near 6 and highs 10-13 C although some chance of milder readings where clouds break slightly.

MONDAY ... Further showers and little change in the wind or temperatures but any clearing may bring somewhat improved highs. Lows 5-8 C and highs near 13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers in a moderate northeast wind on Tuesday, highs near 14 C ... this pattern may continue or improve to mostly sunny depending on how close a ridge of high pressure manages to extend, and also whether or not it can hold off a weak Atlantic system that looks likely to stall and move north towards Iceland, allowing higher pressure to continue later in the week. This could be a first stage of an improvement towards warm and dry weather that could start to dominate in early to mid June. (that's a teaser for the summer forecast which is coming along here at the weather lab, look for it tomorrow).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain will become heavy in some parts of the southeast near the coast, and this system will move slowly north before pulling out to sea late Friday. Otherwise the northeast states and Great Lakes are in a seasonably warm, dry pattern that is linked to a very warm and dry air mass sprawled over most of central North America into the west. A weak front is moving into Montana and Idaho with some scattered storms likely, and the west coast is under a slightly cooler variety of high pressure that is pushing slowly south behind this front. Highs in the central plains, northern plains and central Rockies will be generally close to 32 C, while parts of the southwest will see 38-41 C. The west coast air mass is generally in the 17-20 C range daytime.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was sunny and pleasant although rather cool in the breeze of marine origins, highs near 17 C.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 18 May, 2012
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Summer forecast: The summer of 2012 is expected to be slightly warmer than average with below to near average rainfall and near to above average sunshine. Early to mid June could turn a lot warmer than recent weeks, then a more normal pattern should prevail until further bursts of warmth in July and August. A lot more details and the reasoning behind this forecast can be found in the "summer 2012" thread (post 53) at this location:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=78743889#post78743889

If you would like to discuss, please join in over there so we can keep this thread confined to forecasts and alerts. Thanks -- MTC

Today's forecasts:

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with intermittent and mostly light rain, some drizzle and mist patches, rather chilly except in a few northern locations where it turns brighter, winds E-NE 15-30 mph and highs 10-13 C.

TONIGHT and SATURDAY ... Intermittent light rain continuing, totals of about 10 to 20 mms from today to mid-day Saturday, winds E-NE 10-20 mph, and possibly a few sunny breaks developing by later afternoon especially to the north. Lows 6-8 C and highs 11-14 C (mildest likely around Donegal).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, some possibly thundery, and winds continuing from the northeast at moderate speeds, lows 3-5 C and highs 11-14 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers, winds becoming light and variable by afternoon, lows 2-5 C and highs 12-15 C.

TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals west, sunny breaks east, showers near the west coast at times and drizzle or mist patches, winds becoming more southeast, lows 4-7 C and highs 11-15 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... A somewhat warmer pattern is likely to develop later in the week. Highs could break 15 C despite a fair amount of cloud. The rainfall pattern would be sporadic at worst and some places may remain dry. At some point, another surge of moderate east to northeast winds could develop but this time it should be accompanied by rising pressures and settled weather.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Heavy rain in southern Virginia and North Carolina, otherwise, most of the eastern states and Great Lakes under sunshine or dry cloud, with highs 17-22 C and low humidity. Chilly lake or sea breezes in some shoreline regions. This will trend to very warm weather in the central U.S. with outbreaks of heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Dakotas, western Nebraska, extending north into parts of the eastern Canadian prairies. Highs 30-34 C in the warm air, 15-20 C behind the front in Montana and western Saskatchewan, 10-15 C Alberta with showers trending to snow in higher elevations. Sunny and seasonable near the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny with a high near 16 C and a cooling sea breeze on Thursday, similar expected today.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 19 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals developing, these more likely in Ulster and Connacht in the morning, but more widely scattered later. Sporadic light rain should die out gradually, but there's some risk of a secondary band moving in from the east this afternoon, if it does, amounts should be light. Most places are only going to see about 2-5 mms today at the most, and perhaps an hour or more of sunshine. Highs will be close to 12 on average, but could rise to 15 C where the sun breaks through. Winds light to moderate ENE 15-25 mph at times.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with some clear intervals leading to mist patches, chilly, lows 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud with some good sunny spells developing in the west, more cloud likely from the Irish Sea in Leinster and east Ulster. Isolated showers possible, most places dry, and highs 12-16 C depending on sunshine.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, some longer sunny breaks in north central counties as a ridge is squeezed in between slowly advancing Atlantic cloud and gradually eroding British cloud (a familiar sight by now). Lows around 5 C and highs around 15 C.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY ... Dry weather may continue but there will be considerable cloud near the west coast and possibly some drizzle near shore, rain offshore in a southerly flow. Some sunny breaks and highs near 17 C in some parts of the central and eastern counties.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Becoming quite warm later in the week with some sunny intervals and highs 18-20 C possible, although any cloud may hold this closer to 16 C. Sea breezes on east coast may cool locally as well. The warmer dry spell may last quite some time except in parts of the south if weak systems develop south of Cork and Waterford and spill some rain into parts of Munster.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Warm and dry from the Great Lakes and northeast into the central plains states, with highs 24-30 C, but a strong front is developing from Manitoba south to Kansas and Oklahoma, and this may produce a more significant severe storm outbreak than has been seen for weeks, with tornado risk in Kansas and Oklahoma. Hot and humid in the south central states ahead of that front. Rain to the northwest of the front in the Dakotas and Manitoba, turning chilly but clearing further west and seasonable (15-20 C). Variable cloud and dry on the west coast ahead of a showery front expected tomorrow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Partly cloudy with intervals of marine cloud Friday morning, cool with highs near 14 C. More sunshine by evening but clouding over again overnight.

Not sure whether I will be able to post updates all weekend, so if my forecast does not appear, perhaps another kind soul will take a turn ... but if I have a chance, I will post updated forecasts, in any case the general theme is improvement (for you, the opposite here).