Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 04-01-2012 8:43am

Wednesday, 4 January, 2012
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TODAY ... While not exactly stormy, blustery winds will redevelop during the day and exposed northern regions could see winds of 45-70 mph by afternoon from the WNW, accompanied by frequent showers or periods of rain, with some thunder possible, turning more to sleet on higher ground, as highs in the north will be held down to about 5-8 C. Central and southern districts won't be as windy, but will see passing rain or hail showers with some thunder, and winds of 35-55 mph from the west, with highs 8-11 C. Sunshine will be limited except in some parts of the southeast. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms will be fairly widespread.

TONIGHT ... The blustery winds in the north will veer slightly to NW 40-60 mph and allow slightly colder air to filter in, but a front will become stationary from about Westport to Dublin, and south of this, temperatures won't drop much until later in the night, with winds W 20-40 mph. Lows of 2-5 C in the north, temperatures steady 8-10 C in the south until falling late to about 5 C. Some sleet or snow could develop towards morning in higher parts of Ulster. Some thunder could develop near the front, stay tuned for updates.

THURSDAY ... Generally windy and colder with mixed wintry showers in places, cold rain or hail showers for most, winds NW 35-55 mph but easing in the south by afternoon, highs 4-7 C north, 7-10 C south. Generally about 3-5 mms rain although possibly heavier in Ulster.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY ... At this point, these days are shown as mild and cloudy with limited rainfall and highs 7-9 C, possible light frosts in some places, but I suspect the models may suddenly change in a day or two and provide a much more active pattern. So don't be surprised if this rather benign forecast changes to something more unsettled if not stormy.

OUTLOOK ... Here again, the European model has now returned to a colder look with the persistent high (if it even survives the weekend) starting to break up and allow a colder north to northwest flow next week. Given what I've said above, it would not surprise me if this turns into a very unsettled and at times stormy period with wintry precipitation beginning to mix in more, as temperatures generally start to edge down into the lower single digits in northerly winds. All we really need at this point is a slight shift in upper features that could be in response to upper-level warming, especially any kind of stalled Baltic low, and the GFS theme of continuous mild zonal flow could be blown away within 48 hours. Of course, my bias is showing here because this is what my research-driven forecast has been showing for the period 8-15 Jan followed by the heart of a colder regime late January. If it is going to become severe this winter in Ireland, I believe it will come around the 20th to 25th of January.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The dominant theme is very mild again, as colder air masses now over the Great Lakes and northeast are eroded slowly by frontal waves ahead of a massive push of very mild Pacific air downsloping across the Rockies in a major chinook pattern today, bringing highs of about 12-15 C to parts of the snow-free southern prairies. A previous weaker low is now collapsing into a warm frontal wave near Lake Michigan and this will bring a slight wet snowfall in its path but will cut off the previous heavy lake effect snows. The large cities of the northeast U.S. never got totally into the arctic blast further north, but are just below freezing and will recover to 5-8 C today and tomorrow, before hitting 10-15 C later in the week, a reading that will be widespread in the central plains states today, trending up to 20-25 C in Oklahoma and Texas, in a dry southwest flow. Meanwhile it is very warm and dry in the southwest states, but cloudy and raining further north with near normal highs of 7-9 C. Heavy snows are falling in some higher parts of the inland northwest states and B.C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was one of those typical blah days on the west coast in January, overcast, light to moderate rain, southerly winds of 30 mph and highs near 7 C. No sign of snow around here (just higher up).

M.T. Cranium · 05-01-2012 8:21am

Thursday, 5 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Continuing windy and at times almost stormy with slightly colder temperatures edging south from Ulster into north Leinster, where highs may be held to 6-8 C, while further south and west it will stay closer to 10-12 C. Scattered squally showers, some with hail and thunder, will be rather widely separated but could become intense in a few locations, mixing with sleet over higher terrain in north. Winds NW 40-65 mph in exposed areas, 30-55 mph in most other locations. Some slight wind damage is possible especially in exposed western regions.

TONIGHT ... There should finally be a break in the strong winds as it turns a bit colder under partly cloudy skies, with just isolated showers in north coastal regions. Winds should diminish to 20-40 mph or less. Lows 3-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, hazy sunshine at times, milder. Highs 9-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... I have to confess that I am not very confident in the global models but they are all trending towards mild, dry weather with fog patches at night, lows 2-5 C and highs 8-12 C each day. This could last well into next week if the models are right. But take this as a low-confidence forecast that could change to more unsettled conditions fairly quickly.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Very mild weather prevails today, especially in the northern plains states and southern prairies of Canada, with highs near record values, 15-20 C in places. This milder air is pushing gradually east but will only reach about Lake Michigan to West Virginia today, east of that it remains partly cloudy and rather cold with highs 2-5 C. The warmth is linked to widespread subtropical air across the southern U.S. which is bringing some sunshine to most of the south and highs 20-24 C. The west coast sees some cloud north of about Portland, Oregon, and light rain in places with seasonably mild temperatures. Slightly colder air is trying to move south from Yukon and NWT but won't get very far until late tomorrow. A much colder regime is setting up in about a week to ten days.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy and mild on Wednesday, with occasional light rain, highs around 9 or 10 C. ... In Alberta, Wednesday was very mild and windy in a chinook, with severe grass fires due to the dry ground conditions. Winds were westerly at 45-70 mph.

M.T. Cranium · 06-01-2012 8:27am

Friday, 6 January, 2012
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Finally, a break in the strong winds that many have been complaining about as too persistent ... and with this break, some dry weather with only limited drizzly rain in a few places. Models are suggesting this will hold as long as the atmosphere doesn't suddenly reset due to upper-level warming. That is making me less than confident about this spell lasting for a week, but it could.

TODAY ... Milder with some hazy sunshine as well as patchy low cloud and drizzle. Only light to moderate southwest breezes becoming a bit stronger by evening in the north. Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, partly cloudy otherwise, some light rain may spread across parts of west and north later, lows 3-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Somewhat cooler in the north as winds veer to WNW 20-40 mph, scattered showers, but the hazy, partly cloudy conditions may hold across parts of the south with milder highs of 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... A milder trend again in the north, staying rather mild in the south, mostly hazy and partly cloudy skies, slight chance of drizzle ... lows of about 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... This sort of pattern will continue with slight variations all week, unless the steering currents begin to change rapidly, which is widely expected to happen around the end of the week or into the mid-month period. When that happens, it may become much more unsettled and cold air will be looking for ways to come south. Right now, the models seem to be indicating that Ireland and vicinity could try to hold on to mild conditions despite a lot of colder air rushing south in other regions. However, this has to be taken as a very uncertain outcome.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Record mild temperatures will continue in parts of the northern and central plains states, spreading into the western Great Lakes and Ohio valley (it was 16 C in Minot, ND on Thursday). Although it may take most of the day, the large cities of the northeast will get to around 12-15 C as well. It's very warm across all of the southern half of the U.S.A. with highs up to 20-25 C in many parts. Western Canada is seeing a slight cooling trend today but still well above normal, 2-4 C instead of 10-15. And the west coast remains partly to mostly cloudy with some showers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was a mostly cloudy day but with some sunny breaks, and highs near 10 C. The wind felt cold despite that.

M.T. Cranium · 07-01-2012 8:10am

Saturday, 7 January, 2012
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Models are continuing to advertise mostly mild weather for about a week, then some kind of colder trend, but as an upper-level warming appears to be getting established, these forecast trends could be subject to revision. The main uncertainty is probably how cold it might turn once the mild spell dies out around Friday. A less significant uncertainty is the length of the mild spell itself.

TODAY ... Cloudy with some hazy sunshine at times, isolated showers mainly northern counties, little if any accumulation ... moderate WNW breezes backing somewhat to WSW later, mild in the south, seasonable in the north. Highs 6-8 C north to 9-11 C south.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, relatively mild, lows 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, mild, highs 10-12 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY ... This should be a mild spell with some chance of near-record warmth in parts of the inland south, highs generally 11-13 C but could hit 14-15 C in a few spots. Each day will likely bring some hazy sunshine in places although cloud cover will be at least one-third to one-half and likely more than that in the north where some light rain or drizzle could attend frontal systems that graze Ulster from time to time (colder air is being held to the north but will try to move south on Tuesday). Overnight lows in this spell should be generally 4-7 C but any clear spots could sink a bit lower and dense fog might result from that.

FRIDAY to SUNDAY ... This period is indicated as a gradual cooling trend with stronger southwest to northwest winds through the period. It is possible that a much colder pattern could materialize rather quickly, if not during this period, then in the week following.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Very mild today in the northeast U.S. with highs 14-18 C. Turning a little cooler across the lower Great Lakes with wet snow in some parts of the central Great Lakes. Warm and dry (20-23 C) in most of the southern states although some showers developing from a weak upper level disturbance over Tennessee. Sunny and unseasonably warm in the southwest states, some highs to 25-30 C. Cloudy with scattered showers in British Columbia, trending milder into western Canada. A large-scale change will take place there during the week but it will remain very mild to about Monday night or Tuesday morning (followed by -30 C cold and a blizzard in SK and MB, spreading south into the Dakotas, around Thursday).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a bit cooler than previous days with light rain and moderate winds, highs near 6 C.

M.T. Cranium · 08-01-2012 8:12am

Sunday, 8 January, 2012
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No major changes in the models, mild air likely to persist to about Friday, then a gradual colder trend as high pressure links to a much colder source region in Scandinavia. Details remain uncertain, but a colder trend seems likely for several weeks beyond Friday.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, some light rain or drizzle in parts of west and north, better chance of hazy sunshine southeast ... mild, highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, some drizzle west and north, light winds, lows 3-6 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY ... Little change each day, some hazy sunshine possible in south and east, more cloud likely in north and west, scattered outbreaks of light rain but generally dry, little accumulation ... highs each day around 8-11 C on average, but could reach 12-13 C in some places ... lows each morning about 4-6 C on average.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, light winds, but perhaps with a slight northeast to east component, colder especially at night, frosts may develop. Lows 0-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder air will be lurking either just north to east, or even across parts of Ulster, and there will be some risk of sleet or snow with this, although there remains some chance of a dry cold interval. Once in place, the cold air may become a "player" for some time, perhaps the rest of the month into early February. Not sure yet if the cold will become severe (highs that do not reach freezing and lows below -6 C), much depends on whether snow cover is established or not.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... After a very warm day that saw highs of 20 C in Washington DC and 17 C in NYC, today will be more seasonable although still milder than average, with highs of 5-8 C in the northeast states. It remains very warm across the southern states with a few outbreaks of light rain but nothing very heavy. Also, very mild across the southern prairies and northern - central plains (for two more days before a big change to very cold). Highs today will be 7-12 C in these regions where -20 to -10 C is about normal. But it could be -30 C by Wednesday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, a rather cold wind and light rain at times, highs about 5 C.

M.T. Cranium · 09-01-2012 8:14am

Monday, 9 January, 2012
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Full moon occurs today at 0731 GMT. No eclipse this time.

TODAY ... Cloudy, foggy or misty at first, brightening later ... a few outbreaks of light rain this morning in Munster, 1-3 mms ... highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals this evening, becoming foggy then overcast with mist, temperatures likely to fall to 3-6 C this evening then edge back up with the cloud.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, some drizzle or light rain in south and west, highs 11-13 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy to overcast, mild, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C but possibly as high as 13 C if sun breaks through (inland southeast to east Galway).

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... A colder interval developing with some clearing and frost possible, lows -3 to +2 C and highs 4-8 C.

SUNDAY-MONDAY ... Cold with low cloud developing, east winds and possible drizzle, potential for some light snow if cold enough.

The models are then showing a return to milder conditions at this point, although I don't think they are set into a reliable pattern yet as a stratospheric warming appears to be advancing.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Most of the west will be very mild in a widespread chinook pattern, highs 7-12 C across much of western Canada and the northwest U.S., rain near the coasts. Warm and dry in the southwest U.S., highs 23-27 C in lower elevations ... some light rain in parts of the east central to southeast states, relatively mild although not much above normal, highs 8-12 C ... cloudy and staying near normal or slightly milder than average in the northeast states and Great Lakes regions.

Much colder air will arrive in western Canada later Tuesday and into Wednesday when it could fall to -30 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a cloudy, mild day with occasional rain and highs of about 7-8 C.

Hang in there, we'll get some weather going again soon.

M.T. Cranium · 10-01-2012 8:13am

Tuesday, 10 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy and mild, with some brighter intervals or hazy sunshine developing in parts of the central to southeast inland regions, drizzle or fog near some coasts ... highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, misty, rather mild with lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy and mild with scattered light drizzle and fog or mist patches, light winds ... highs 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change at first, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C, but clearing skies later, turning colder soon after sunset.

FRIDAY ... Clear skies and much colder for most especially inland, morning frost, lows -2 to +2 C ... hazy sunshine with some low cloud patches, cold during the day, highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, drizzle turning to light rain later, lows 0-3 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... The models have continued to struggle with the outcome, several runs earlier showed severe cold and easterly winds developing, but the most recent guidance backs away from this and has some indications more of a windstorm developing instead. I would just say all options are on the table, from mild to very cold and various shades of unsettled conditions in between. We're in one of those situations where patience is needed because if the computer models are this unsteady, we're simply guessing as to the outcome. I do think that the colder scenarios are plausible given the changes underway at upper levels.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Parts of western Canada will turn much colder in northerly winds, with temperatures falling steadily to -15 C during the day then -30 C overnight. Closer to the west coast, this trend will be much less spectacular, more like 5 C by day and -2 C overnight. The eastern prairies and most of the northern plains states will stay mild until late afternoon, getting into a period of sleet and 2-5 cms of snow before the cold air digs in this evening. Before that, highs could reach 5-10 C. Further south, mostly dry and mild, except in parts of central Texas where a weak upper level storm will bring rain and some thunderstorms. Towards the Great Lakes and east coast, near normal temperatures and cloudy skies in a moderate southwest flow, highs 4-7 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Mostly cloudy, but dry, and around 8 to 10 C ... getting rather windy overnight with colder air just to our north now.

M.T. Cranium · 11-01-2012 8:05am

Wednesday, 11 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with extensive fog or mist, drizzle or light rain at times, 1-3 mms on average, highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Foggy, mild, some drizzle, light winds. Lows 6-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Fog and drizzle becoming more confined to south and west coastal regions, some brighter intervals developing, turning colder late afternoon or evening in Ulster and spreading south. Highs 9-11 C, temperatures falling to 3-5 C late afternoon northeast.

FRIDAY ... Clear intervals north and east, cold, lows near -3 C and highs around 5-7 C. Cloudy south and west, somewhat colder than previous days, lows 4-6 C and highs 6-9 C.

SATURDAY ... Some light rain or drizzle, possibly mixing with sleet on higher terrain, cold or raw with moderate southeast winds, lows 2-5 C with highs of 5-8 C, winds ESE 15-30 mph.

SUNDAY ... Further cold rain or sleet, lows 3-5 C and highs 5-8 C. Winds east to southeast 20-40 mph.

OUTLOOK ... A rather cold southeast flow may continue for some time. The models are trying to resolve whether this will be replaced by milder air from the southwest, remain in place, or even replaced again by clearing, colder weather from the east. The best bet at the moment is for continued rather chilly, damp weather but with the prospect of some colder weather following.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The mild spell continues in the east as two lows make slow progress across the plains states and inland southeast, spreading rain towards the east coast, but it should stay dry today in most of the large cities with highs 12-15 C. Highs generally 10-13 C further west to about Missouri north into southern Minnesota, with snow or sleet developing to west of that line in advance of much colder air. Turning much colder in the Dakotas, Nebraska and later Kansas and western Oklahoma, northwest Texas, eastern Colorado and Wyoming. Temperatures in these states will start out above freezing but end up -5 to -15 C. Very cold across much of western Canada, highs -15 to -22 C. Sunny and cool on the west coast with highs 3-7 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny intervals on Tuesday, breezy, cold, highs about 4-6 C. Mostly clear this evening and near freezing, winds not as strong.

M.T. Cranium · 12-01-2012 8:07am

Thursday, 12 January, 2012
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TODAY ... The mild, cloudy spell is about to end but will hang on in most places until afternoon ... winds will be moderate westerly to north-westerly until mid-afternoon, then may fall off to light ... fog and drizzle will persist but watch for some clearing across Ulster and Leinster before sunset ... highs will be 9-11 C but temperatures will fall rather sharply towards sunset.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals at first, low cloud or fog forming in many areas, colder, lows -2 to +3 C for most, could stay milder near west coast.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals for most, low cloud more likely near south and west coasts, winds rather light but with a slight easterly component, highs around 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... East and north will remain clear to partly cloudy, cold, lows near -4 C and highs near +4 C ... south and west could have more cloud, even some drizzle or sleet at higher elevations, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Low cloud and drizzle or light rain (sleet possibly) will become more widespread gradually although east and north may remain largely dry, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

MONDAY ... Staying rather cold and cloudy with light rain or drizzle in places, foggy by evening, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... This period may turn milder again, although this is not 100% certain as large-scale changes are now underway, this rather weak blocking high for the weekend could decide to hang on longer. If it does turn milder, it's likely to be back up to about 10-12 C for a day or two.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models are very undecided but the most reliable ECM seems to favour a return to cold and then windy conditions with possible snow or sleet by the following weekend (21-22 Jan). However, a continued mild theme could win out (considered less likely).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The east remains mild as very cold air creeps slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. From about Michigan to Kentucky east, it will stay mild and wet with highs 7-12 C, winds turning to southeast. Some snow will develop on the west and northeast edges of this storm, with 5-10 cms for some parts of Wisconsin, Illinois and also northern New England. Freezing drizzle is possible with that.

Further west, it is very cold through the central states and most of west-central Canada although turning a bit milder today in Montana and Alberta in a weak chinook. Temperatures in the heart of the cold air are running near freezing in the south and -20 C in Canada. The weak chinook is just bringing temperatures back up to about -2 C, and an even colder air mass is now developing over Alaska with a Siberian origin. This one will sag southeast this weekend and set up a cold wave pattern for western Canada, so that we may finally see some snow here on the west coast (for now, it's clear and moderately cold).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and cold on Wednesday, highs near 4 C. Tonight it will fall to about -5 C under clear skies.

M.T. Cranium · 13-01-2012 8:26am

Friday, 13 January, 2012
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ALERT for locally icy roads in rural areas of eastern and central Ireland this morning and for the next few nights (lasting to about 0930h before improving on each occasion) ... these conditions may edge closer to the west although probably won't reach coastal districts in this spell. Also watch for patches of dense fog in valleys and near lakes or ponds.

TODAY ... Rather cloudy in the west and south, chilly with fog and some drizzle at times, highs 5-8 C (10 C outer southwest coasts) ... partly cloudy with drifting fog or low cloud, some sunshine too, for east and north, cold with highs 3-6 C. Light winds for most.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals then fog, freezing fog, icy sections on rural roads, lows -3 to +3 C with the milder readings in southwest and near west coast.

SATURDAY ... Mostly cloudy, raw southeast winds developing, drizzle or light rain in south and west at times, could still be sunny at times in some parts of the northeast ... winds rising to SE 15-30 mph ... highs 5-8 C coldest around inland north Leinster.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, cold, raw southeast winds, some drizzle or rain at times, lows 0-4 C and highs 6-8 C, patchy ice may be encountered in rural eastern and northern locales.

MONDAY ... Continuing about the same with cloud, drizzle, fog, chilly temperatures, wind may ease somewhat. Lows 2-5 C and highs 6-9 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Milder, more certain for western coastal regions as some guidance suggests the chilly high may remain stubborn across the southeast. However, a slightly greater chance that milder air will push in to all regions and bring temperatures back to around 10-12 C briefly (if not, the 10-12 C readings will be confined to west coast and it could stay 4-7 C east and southeast). Some light rain at times. Becoming breezy from west later in the period.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY ... This period seems likely to turn quite cold again, details are somewhat uncertain, but the more reliable guidance points to a veering northwest to north wind becoming strong at times, wintry showers developing, and temperatures well below mid-week levels although remaining slightly above freezing by day (hence the mixed nature of the showers). Even colder weather on northeast winds could follow, with east coast snow potential rising.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The northeast states and all the major cities will see a sharp drop in temperatures and (in most places) the first snow of the winter except for that freak inland storm in late October. Temperatures this morning are near 5 C with light rain, but by tonight it will be around -7 C with strong westerly winds. The Great Lakes region will see the change earlier (only Lake Ontario is still in the mild air) and there will be some locally heavy snow squalls and an initial band of freezing drizzle icing up the roads. All central regions are still under the control of a strong arctic high and have temperatures near -20 C north to near freezing south. A weak chinook has developed for Alberta and Montana and will continue all day but temperatures will only rise slightly above freezing. Sunny and cool near the west coast. Highs around 5 C there. Western Alaska is coming under the influence of bitterly cold air from Siberia with temperatures dropping into the range of -20 to -30 C.

Cordova, a town on the Alaska coast around where it starts to drop south into the Alaska panhandle, has a snow emergency from weeks of heavy snow; they have about 5 metres of snow clogging roads and have the Alaska National Guard and volunteers digging out including clearing off roofs. This is far more snow than they usually see there (a few cms to perhaps half a metre would be normal). Reason is that very cold water offshore and a persistent cold dome of arctic air over the interior have combined to push away the normally milder Pacific air masses, but not very far away so that there have been many strong lows just to their south. This abnormal snowfall is fairly confined to that part of the coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was a sunny, crisp day with a high of about 5 C, and overnight lows near -3 C. We're expecting some snow by Sunday here.

M.T. Cranium · 14-01-2012 8:10am

Saturday, 14 January, 2012
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ALERT for some icy roads and locally dense fog patches mainly in lower lying inland valleys of eastern counties, valid to about 10:00h.

TODAY ... Mist or fog patches, some clear breaks, and cold in eastern counties, highs 4-7 C. Extensive low cloud, drizzle or light rain spreading north into western counties, 2-5 mms in some parts, highs 7-10 C. Winds increasing gradually to SE 15-30 mph. Feeling raw in this breeze.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, cold in some parts, lows 1-3 C east and 3-6 C west ... some light drizzle west, chance of some freezing fog in a few parts of the east.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, remaining rather cold in a southeast breeze, highs generally 5-8 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, some drizzle developing south and west, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Milder, although some parts of the southeast could stay rather chilly, highs for most 9-12 C, showers or periods of rain at times in west and north, moderate SW winds developing for west coast regions. There is some chance of the inland southeast staying foggy under an inversion layer.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Cloudy, showers, becoming sleety over higher ground, as winds veer more to W then NW, temperatures holding steady 6-8 C then falling slowly to reach about 3-5 C.

FOLLOWING WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Most likely rather cold with mixed wintry showers, winds north to northeast, some local snowfalls east coast especially higher elevations, temperatures well below normal in the range of -6 to +3 C.

(as with the last several advisories, the model runs are dividied on the outcome but cold seems to be holding firm on several of the models, and there is always some chance of this cold becoming severe).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold and dry for many parts of western Canada, although a colder (frigid, arctic air) regime is spreading southeast from Alaska where temperatures will stay -25 to -35 C. The less severe cold ahead of this outbreak has highs of -3 to +2 C. Sleet or snow developing in some west coast regions later, but heavier snow to follow tomorrow. Highs near the coast 3-5 C. Holding on to warm, dry conditions in the southwest states for now, highs 17-21 C.

Central regions cold and dry, highs below normal by 5-8 degrees ... windy with snow squalls in the Great Lakes, dry and cold in the rest of the northeast and dry/cool further south towards Florida, highs generally around 15 C in the southeast states, 5 C mid-Atlantic and -5 C New England. A rain and wind combination moving through eastern Canada will bring strong southerly winds and highs of 10-13 C, but much colder air will quickly replace this by tonight as the storm moves into the Labrador Sea. Blizzard conditions in Labrador, 20-40 cms of snow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was cloudy and about 4 C. A sleety rain is falling at present, with snow at somewhat higher elevations. Waves of sleet and then snow are expected for several days as much colder air drains in from the northeast. Temperature at 11 p.m. Friday here is +2 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-01-2012 8:19am

Sunday, 15 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Most regions cloudy, but southwest will also be quite foggy in places with periods of light rain (3-7 mms) mostly confined to Kerry, west Cork and west Limerick into south Clare. Elsewhere, nothing more than patchy drizzle with trace amounts. Winds becoming somewhat stronger from southeast 20-35 mph, adding chill to a rather raw day with highs 6-9 C (could reach 10-11 C around south Kerry). Some sleet on higher parts of Kerry might develop as the air mass is quite cold at 500-900 metres.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, drizzle or continued light rain, winds SE 20-30 mph, lows 3-6 C.

MONDAY ... Little change although some brighter intervals, but still mainly cloudy with outbreaks of light rain, winds a bit more southerly, highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, milder, some rain at times (5-10 mms on average), winds moderate SW'ly 25-40 mph, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate westerly winds, turning slightly colder especially in Ulster and north Connacht. Lows near 5 C and highs 8-10 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Becoming steadily colder in a west to northwest wind, occasional showers becoming mixed or wintry at times on higher northern terrain, lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

NEXT WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather cold, variable cloud, winds becoming light if ECM model verifies, outbreaks of sleet or light snow possible although not likely to be widespread or heavy. Temperatures in the range of -3 to +6.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very uncertain at this point, would not surprise me if a colder theme is maintained to early February. However, no reliable indications of severe cold or heavy snow yet. Can't rule this out, but it's about equally possible that there would be a milder trend to near normal temperatures at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe cold is spreading south across B.C. and Alberta from a source in Alaska and the Yukon (where it's already -40 or lower). Temperatures today will continue to drop to around -25 C in the north and -15 C central parts of these provinces, and snow will spread across Saskatchewan into Manitoba, near-blizzard conditions with falling temperatures. Outbreaks of snow in the south of Alberta and B.C. spreading into the interior parts of the Pacific northwest states with highs -3 to zero.

Showery in Oregon with mountain snows, but holding on to dry and warm conditions for one more day in California and parts of the southwest, however, snow will arrive in Colorado by tonight. Milder into the central plains states with highs 7-12 C ahead of a strong cold front. Cold and dry for the eastern third of the U.S. and most of Ontario and Quebec with heavy local lake effect snow squalls in northwest winds. Highs well below normal, -10 C on average in the Great Lakes and inland northeast, -3 C coastal northeast and 5-10 C southeast U.S. to 15 C Florida. These regions will warm up steadily on Monday and Tuesday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Last night (early Saturday) we had 3 cms of snow which then partially melted and refroze after a day of 3-4 C temperatures and developing clear skies. Another burst of snow is now falling. Amounts are very dependent on elevation, some places not far from my location had 25 cms and expect about the same in addition, but here we may see 5 cms. Highs on Sunday around 2 C, then even colder next week with heavy snow.:)

M.T. Cranium · 16-01-2012 8:35am

Monday, 16 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some fog or mist, especially over higher parts of the south ... a few sunny breaks are possible in Ulster and Connacht ... icy spots in parts of Ulster should see improvements by 0930 or so ... but otherwise, gradually turning a bit milder, with some drizzle and with highs 7-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Drizzle or light rain, foggy, milder with lows 4-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain and drizzle, 5-10 mms on average, heavier in southwest than elswhere, moderate SW'ly winds at 15-30 mph and highs 9-11 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning showers, turning colder with moderate westerly winds 25-40 mph, some sunny intervals followed by further showers, highs around 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Breezy to windy, rather cold, passing showers, these becoming sleety or wintry on high ground in north ... lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Breezy to windy, cold, further wintry showers possible, winds W-NW 20-40 mph, lows 1-3 C and highs 5-7 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Colder weather still seems likely although guidance is frankly all over the place, so I'll just say that some frost and snow is possible but not yet confirmed. Most likely temperature range between lows of -3 C and highs of 4-6 C. The further outlook is so uncertain that it seems pointless to mention it, but I will revert to my research model and say that cold weather is quite possible at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Continued severe cold in western regions of Canada and rather cold in Pacific northwest U.S., generally a break in the snow until later today near the west coast; temperatures are as low as -40 in the far north and -20 to -25 over much of inland western Canada, to about -3 C near Vancouver and Seattle, and then with rain more likely, 5-7 C in Oregon, while it remains partly cloudy and showery in parts of California and the southwest states, 15-20 C.

Further east, much milder in the central plains states ahead of a developing storm in Kansas and Nebraska that will spread snow into Iowa and southern Minnesota. Highs ahead of this storm 10-15 C, behind it, heavy snow then falling to -15 C. The east coast is dry and cold to start the day, but will turn quite a bit milder in a developing southwest flow, highs could reach 5 C after morning lows outside the cities of -10 C or lower. Windy and very cold in far eastern Canada. Cloudy and near -2 C over most of the Great Lakes region.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday started out with some snow before dawn, about 3-5 cms, then clearing skies, highs near 2 C, which turned snow to ice in some places, now it's clear and about -4 C. We're expecting a bit more snow on Monday and a large storm on Wednesday.

M.T. Cranium · 17-01-2012 8:18am

Tuesday, 17 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Milder with periods of rain, 5-10 mms on average, with somewhat of a clearing trend in the west later, winds becoming SW 20-35 mph, and highs 9-11 C. The rain should become showery by afternoon in the east, and also some isolated showers will follow towards evening in the northwest.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, showers, windy at times, lows 4-6 C. Winds veering to westerly 25-35 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, showers or periods of rain in some places during the morning, a clearing trend by afternoon with further showers by evening, highs 7-9 C, winds WNW 20-40 mph.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, rather cold with mixed or wintry showers in higher terrain especially, winds WNW 30-50 mph, lows 2-4 C and highs 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, slightly milder again with showers turning to periods of rain, winds backing to southwest 20-30 mph, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy or windy and turning slightly colder with showers becoming more mixed or wintry later especially across higher parts of northwest, lows 3-5 C and highs 5-8 C, winds WNW 20-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, cold with mixed sleety showers, some snow possible on hills, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5-8 C. Winds WNW backing to WSW 20-40 mph.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers (slight chance of snow flurries), most likely a bit milder briefly.

OUTLOOK ... Models are now delaying significant cold to mid-week ... while this trend may seem continual and never to be fulfilled, there is a slow background cooling trend and signs of an accelerated pattern shift, so it would not surprise me if mid-week to end of January proves rather cold or even very cold if everything works out ... chances are probably best for moderate cold in the range of highs 2-5 C and lows -5 to -2 C. Some snow would be inevitable in a week of that sort of temperature given the changes in wind direction being indicated.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe cold will continue today in most of western Canada and adjacent northwest states, with highs in parts of Alberta and adjacent provinces no better than -25 C. Yukon and Alaska remain in severe cold with ice fog and local temperatures to -45 C, generally about -10 to -20 C south coast of Alaska (where 6 metres of snow has built up this winter). Morning snow should yield to flurries around Vancouver and Seattle, some accumulations to 10-15 cms, highs near -1 C. Rain in Oregon and northern California, highs 7-15 C lower elevations. Sunny intervals and warm southern CA and parts of AZ-sNV, highs 17-21 C.

The very cold air is pushing south into the west-central plains, dropping temperatures to -15 C after a brief snowfall, and this snow is heading into the western Great Lakes where it will spread across the central Great Lakes just north of Toronto into upstate New York through the day. Amounts of 10 to 30 cms are likely in this zone, with freezing rain just north of Toronto and milder air with rain in the Lake Erie region, showers further south in much milder air to 15-20 C heading for Washington DC, likely to be a late arrival in NYC (7-10 C) and Boston (4-7 C). Far eastern Canada remains very cold and clear with local snow squalls off the Gulf of St Lawrence.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with some light snow at times on Monday, now starting to snow a bit heavier, temperatures steady around -1 C. Not much wind locally as we are right on the arctic front here. It keeps varying in direction from east to southwest.

M.T. Cranium · 18-01-2012 8:40am

Wednesday, 18 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with light rain or drizzle at first, brighter intervals with limited sunshine developing, winds veering more to WNW 20-35 mph, feeling colder although temperatures 8-10 C, a few more showers developing by afternoon, some with hail. Rather chilly this evening.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, intervals of light rain or sleety showers over hills, lows 3-5 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, becoming rather cold with mixed or wintry showers in higher terrain by afternoon and evening, winds WNW 30-50 mph, and highs 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, slightly milder again with showers turning to periods of rain, winds backing to southwest 20-30 mph, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy or windy and turning slightly colder with showers becoming more mixed or wintry later especially across higher parts of northwest, lows 3-5 C and highs 5-8 C, winds WNW 20-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny breaks, cold with mixed sleety showers, some snow possible on hills, lows -1 to +3 C and highs 5-8 C. Winds WNW backing to WSW 20-40 mph.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers (slight chance of snow flurries), lowe around 3-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... A cool or cold unsettled pattern will develop mid-week; models currently show this on the rain side of the rain/snow borderline for most except highest elevations, but it wouldn't take a lot to change that with temperatures at about 1500m predicted around -5 C. ... I continue to assess the situation as very uncertain past day 4 or 5 with potential for a trend to develop either way from this near-normal sort of trend in the forecast.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe cold will continue two or three more days in almost all of western Canada and parts of the north central states, while snow moves into Washington state later today, as well as higher parts of Oregon, and later Idaho. Some snow may fall in B.C. near the border. Heaviest amounts are likely to be 15-30 cms in central Washington. Across western Canada, meanwhile, highs continue to struggle into the -25 C range from overnight lows not far from -40 C in places.

This intense cold is feeding a modified arctic breakoff high that will drift southeast across the western Great Lakes towards the mid-Atlantic states, bringing variable cloud, some sun and highs -6 to -2 C, a modified sort of cold for this region. Meanwhile, a developing storm near South Dakota and Iowa will bring light snow towards Wisconsin; south of that it will turn quite mild in a southwest flow with some chinook warming in Colorado; highs will range from about 10 C in Missouri to 20 C in Texas east to Florida, with the southeast turning colder with showers. Meanwhile far eastern Canada has a rain-snow mix with the low tracking northeast into Labrador.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was cold, and has turned frigid since sunset as the arctic front finally slipped south; earlier it was near -1 C but now it is -12 C in a moderate east wind. Expecting at least light snow by morning as the storm mentioned above moves by to our south.

M.T. Cranium · 19-01-2012 8:17am

Thursday, 19 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Windy and turning a bit colder with showers becoming mixed or wintry at times over higher parts of the northwest ... hail with some thunder possible ... winds WNW 20-40 mph adding chill to highs of 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and rather cold to start, but becoming milder as winds back to SW 20-40 mph with periods of rain later, lowest readings before midnight 2-4 C, then rising to about 6-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Periods of rain, windy, turning partly cloudy with more isolated showers in the mid-day to afternoon, winds WSW 20-40 mph, temperatures steady 8-10 C.

SATURDAY ... Further showers or periods of rain from early morning to mid-day, winds veering again to WNW 20-40 mph, turning a bit colder late in the day, lows 7-9 C and highs 9-11 C but closer to 5 C by evening.

SUNDAY ... A rather cold start with mixed showers possible, turning milder as the day unfolds, lows 2-4 C on average (could hit -1 C in a few spots) and highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday-Tuesday should continue rather unsettled and near normal in temperature, then a fairly extensive storm system will bring a chilly rain that has some potential to turn to sleet or snow depending on elevation mostly, mid-week ... some models are showing a slightly colder end of the week and last few days of January.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The severe cold is slowly relenting over western Canada with outbreaks of snow across the northern plains states and a push of freezing rain turning to rain for the west coast tonight into Friday morning. Temperatures, while still very cold, are rising slowly through the -20s towards -15 C in most places, and close to -2 C on the coast.

The southwest states have missed most of the storm further north but may see a few showers in places, warmish at 15-20 C. Turning milder across many central states but only slightly above freezing, cloudy, with snow moving through the western Great Lakes, 5-10 cms on average, while the northeast states remain cold and dry near -4 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... The snowstorm just to our south spread cloud overhead and a few flurries, with a biting NE wind and temperatures steady near -6 C all day. We escaped with barely 1 cm of snow and it remains about the same tonight, -7 C with a low cloud ceiling and east winds.

M.T. Cranium · 20-01-2012 8:22am

Friday, 20 January, 2012
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The big weather news today is that the models have all shifted to a colder pattern starting about Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Details are somewhat mixed, see the cold spell thread for my detailed thoughts on that, but the general idea seems to be that the steady parade of Atlantic mild sectors will possibly defer to cold northerly or easterly patterns for about a week or more.

TODAY ... Mild and windy with periods of rain or showers, winds WSW 35-55 mph with some higher gusts possible near west coast, highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Staying mild with further rain or showers, winds veering slowly to WNW 30-50 mph, temperatures edging down slightly to about 7-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, windy, turning a bit colder late in the day, showers may contain some hail by afternoon, winds WNW 30-50 mph, highs about 10 C.

SUNDAY ... Cold to start, possibly some scattered frost well inland, wintry showers especially in north, lows -2 to +4 C (milder southwest), then increasing cloud, showers becoming mostly rain, winds backing to west again, highs near 9 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, cold, showers, lows near 4 C and highs near 7 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Potentially a rather stormy interval with strong or very strong winds developing, from southwest at first, veering to west then northwest, periods of rain, possibly mixed with sleet or snow later, temperatures steady 7-9 C then falling slowly.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There is a somewhat higher chance now that conditions will turn cold or even very cold late in the week, and snow may enter the picture. Models also have some suggestions of settled, cold conditions, so it may take a few days to resolve the details.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold weather continues one more day across most of western Canada with snow spreading back north, followed near the coast by freezing rain and then rain. Inland it will stay below -15 C but on the coast, temperatures will rise gradually to +5 C. Further south, rain or showers with mountain snowfalls and strong winds for most of the western states.

Central states will see light snow with milder air south of about Oklahoma City to Memphis; snowfalls to the north will be 1-3 cms, temperatures to the south may stay in the 15-20 C range. This minor storm will affect the northeast on Saturday with 3-7 cms of snow there. But today will be dry and cold in the northeast, as snow moves away from the Great Lakes towards Maine and New Brunswick, with amounts about 5-10 cms (another rather weak system).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was cloudy and cold, and we are waiting for snow to arrive on a warm front, temperatures have edged up all day from a low of about -8 C to the current -3 C with winds ESE 20-30 mph. Freezing rain is likely for a while later tonight after a bit of snow, then our cold spell is over by morning (slush to rain).

M.T. Cranium · 21-01-2012 8:34am

Saturday, 21 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Windy with variable amounts of cloud, isolated showers, and highs around 10-11 C ... winds WNW 30-50 mph with some gusts to 60 mph in exposed west coast locations ... some improvement by late afternoon but turning a bit colder through the evening in diminishing NW winds.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals at first, temperatures steady around 3-5 C, then more cloud and showers in a developing westerly wind 20-40 mph, temperatures possibly rising to 7 C later in the night.

SUNDAY ... More showers, becoming mixed at times over higher parts of the north, winds WNW 20-40 mph, highs 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud with isolated showers, moderate westerly breezes, backing to southwest, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, a cold start to the day with scattered inland frost, but turning milder again later, lows 1-3 C and highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Periods of rain, becoming windy, mild at first, turning a bit colder especially by late Thursday in the northwest when rain could turn to sleet and then snow in a northerly wind. Temperatures likely to remain steady 7-8 C before falling gradually.

OUTLOOK ... Models offer two different outcomes, and the one that seems more plausible is a gradual development (as per the ECM) of a cool, dry pattern with increasingly severe frosts, leading eventually (about the end of the month) to wintry cold and local snowfalls in east winds. The other possible outcome is for a chilly, unsettled pattern of weak fronts from the northwest to continue to circulate around the remnants of the mid-week low.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The cold continues to relent slowly across western Canada and temperatures have almost returned to normal in some places, while mild and rainy conditions have edged into the west coast. Snow will be heavy across parts of the B.C., Washington and southern Alberta mountains, with freezing rain in some valleys.

A weak system is sliding east across OH, PA and MD towards the Atlantic and will spread 3-5 cms of snow into parts of the northeast U.S. today, while cold and dry weather continues further north in the Great Lakes and in northern New England. Highs are generally a few degrees below normal in this zone (meaning -5 to -10 C). The southeast U.S. will see a rather chilly rain with mountain sleet or wet snow, highs 10-13 C. Warm and dry across parts of the south central U.S., where a storm will develop later in the weekend pushing very mild air northeast again.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday started with early morning 1-3 cms of snow, then freezing rain to mid-morning, then rain and fog, all with moderate southeast winds, as warm fronts are slowly inching further east. They have not pushed very far past my location and there is still freezing rain to the east and north of here while we now have 5 degrees and slushy snow rapidly washing away.

M.T. Cranium · 22-01-2012 8:19am

Sunday, 22 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Windy with squally showers in the north at times, as winds shift from west to northwest at 35-55 mph in exposed areas (20-40 mph more generally) ... highs 10-12 C but temperatures may drop slightly after the winds shift, to 8-9 C. Rainfalls generally 1-2 mms. Late afternoon and evening some of the showers could become mixed over higher terrain.

TONIGHT ... Breezy, passing sleety showers, lows 5-7 C. Winds W 20-40 mph.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, mostly dry but some passing brief showers mostly in western counties, some heavier bursts of rain later in northwest spreading to Ulster, winds WSW 20-40 mph, highs 9-11 C.

TUESDAY ... A rather cold start, then increasing cloud, showers mainly western counties, lows 2-4 C and highs 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy, becoming windy (SW 30-50 mph), rain and some hail developing, lows 4-6 C and highs 7-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Mostly cloudy, turning colder, mixed wintry showers over higher terrain, lows 3-5 C and highs 6-8 C, winds shifting to WNW 25-45 mph.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, showers at times, lows 2-4 C and highs around 7 C.

OUTLOOK ... The models are generally showing transitional high pressure, not particularly cold or mild, but this might have potential to bring locally severe frosts well inland, and persistent fog. Otherwise, expect some sunshine and highs in the 6-9 C range next weekend, with frosts at night (generally around -3 C but possibly lower in places).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold and dry for the northeast, Great Lakes regions today, clearing a slight snowfall away in places like NYC and Boston, highs 2-4 C on the coast to -10 C well inland. A few lingering showers in the southeast, chilly, highs 4-8 C. (Florida around 15-18 C) ... Central states turning quite mild with snow developing near Rockies and up towards Canadian border, most amounts 2-5 cms, but for most of the plains states, quite mild in a southerly flow, highs 13-17 C. Western Canada out of the deep freeze but locally rather cold as air mixes slowly, freezing drizzle or light snow in places, highs -7 to +1 C ... west coast milder, periods of rain, mountain wet snows, highs near sea level 7-10 C. Windy and about 15-20 C in the southwest states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was cloudy but generally dry, and the snow has generally melted, as highs reached 8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 23-01-2012 8:23am

Monday, 23 January, 2012
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New moon occurs today at 0740 UTC.

TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, limited sunshine in east and south, isolated showers at times in west and north, turning to a steady rain later in northwest. Winds moderate westerly, highs 8-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with a slight frost in parts of inland south and southeast, lows there 1-4 C, cloudy with occasional rain west and north, lows about 5-7 C.

TUESDAY ... Milder with periods of rain, moderate SW winds 25-40 mph, highs around 10-11 C. Rainfalls 5-15 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Moderately windy at times (SSW 25-45 mph), mild at first, turning somewhat colder late in the day, lows 5-8 C and highs 8-10 C, temperatures around 5 C by evening. Rainfalls 5-10 mms. Some mixed showers by evening and overnight especially northern high ground.

THURSDAY ... Cold with rain or sleet at times, snow possible on higher terrain and hail showers mixed in, winds becoming NW'ly 20-30 mph, morning lows about 2-4 C and highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, moderate NW winds, lows near 2 C and highs 6-8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Mild air will be trying to push back in and may reach some western coastal districts, with more cloud and showers than elsewhere, as high pressure and somewhat cold weather continues for the south and southeast. Lows may continue to be frosty in some parts of the southeast, and highs will generally be in the 7-10 C range. Much colder air continues to lurk off to the east of the North Sea (on all model runs) and we can't rule out a visit from winter at some point but an aggressive push west is not shown in any of the models at this point.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Milder air is returning to the east coast with rain spreading north into the central plains states and western Great Lakes; highs today will generally be 10-13 C in most of these regions, but closer to 2-5 C in northern New England where wet snow may mark the warm frontal passage. Snow or freezing rain will spread further north ahead of low pressure in Iowa and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, milder air is also spreading inland from the Pacific and a weak chinook will start up later, bringing highs in some parts of Alberta and Montana back above 5 C, but further east it remains rather cold, with local freezing drizzle or snow. The coast itself will be windy and showery.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday 22nd was a rainy day with a cold southeast wind and highs about 4-5 C. Strong winds were gusting at times to about 45 mph.

M.T. Cranium · 24-01-2012 8:20am

Tuesday, 24 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with periods of rain, showery at first, mild, with winds from the south to southwest at 25-40 mph ... highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Showers, mild, lows 5-8 C. Some fog developing, total rainfalls including today about 10-15 mms on average.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers becoming squally with some hail, winds SSW 20-40 mph, turning colder during the afternoon or evening, but highs 8-10 C before the cold front arrives. Overnight, showers becoming sleety and then mixed especially on higher terrain, lows dropping to 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... Mixed wintry showers possible at times, cold, winds veering more to northwest at 20-35 mph, highs 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, cool, showers (still possibly mixed or wintry on higher terrain), lows 1-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Now the models have divided into two camps, with any mild spell being either short-lived and followed by much colder weather on easterly winds, or, the mild spell becoming windy from the west with showers. As the guidance is clearly unstable and in a state of flux, consider the weekend unsettled in more ways than one.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mild in eastern states with rain developing, highs 10-15 C. Also rather mild in the Great Lakes region although rain early will clear to rain showers then mixed wintry showers, highs 5-8 C early. The southeast will be showery also with some periods of rain, and another storm is developing in west Texas with heavy rainfalls in places. Further north, near normal and dry, although mild in parts of the chinook zone as highs reach about 5-10 C. Breezy with showers on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was cloudy with some sunny breaks, and mild, with highs near 9 C.

No doubt the seemingly endless search for wintry cold will resume with a vengeance on the threads today ... forgive those of us now suffering from a form of post-traumatic stress disorder as these never-ending model shifts are both annoying and disorienting. Personally, I think the chances are a little better for cold than for mild.

M.T. Cranium · 25-01-2012 8:16am

Wednesday, 25 January, 2012
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ALERT for icy roads and local snow or sleet at higher elevations tonight and Thursday, in particular for higher parts of Mayo, Donegal and nearby parts of other counties.

TODAY ... Staying mild for the morning in western counties, with outbreaks of rain and some hail, then variable cloud and developing mixed wintry showers later, snow on hills by evening ... highs near 10 C before noon then temperatures falling to about 4 C by late afternoon ... further east and across the south, showers becoming heavy around late morning or afternoon, mild, turning colder this evening, highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls today generally 5-10 mms, winds moderate SW 20-40 mph until colder air arrives, then westerly at about 20 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cold and blustery with mixed or wintry showers, some snow on hills, lows 2-4 C.

THURSDAY ... Continued cold and unsettled with showers of hail or sleet at lower elevations, snow on hills, 2-5 cms possible in some areas 200-400m asl, and highs only 3-7 C. Moderate W-NW winds 20-40 mph adding chill.

FRIDAY ... Further mixed showers although with a slowly rising rain-snow elevation divider, morning lows 1-3 C, afternoon or evening highs 5-8 C.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY ... Most likely somewhat milder with variable cloud, some fog or mist, slight chance of frost well inland south and east, highs around 8-10 C. Slight chance of rain in northwest, but we should caution that forecasts are subject to change if colder air arrives early.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning somewhat colder (at least) as winds become more easterly during the week; the cold air may only reach eastern counties, and there are some model scenarios in which Ireland does not see cold easterly flow at all while Britain does ... so we have to stress an uncertain outlook here, but there is some chance of snow and severe cold at times in this outlook period.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rather bland and near normal or slightly milder than average in the east, highs 4-8 C ... heavy rain in parts of Texas, Louisiana spreading northeast slowly, highs 10-15 C in this wet weather ... mild but patches of fog or drizzle across central and western regions, heavy wet snow in some higher elevations of mountains, highs generally 3-7 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Heavy rain all day on Tuesday, highs 7-8 C.

M.T. Cranium · 26-01-2012 8:26am

Thursday, 26 January, 2012
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ALERT continued for locally icy roads due to frost and higher elevation snow or sleet, although hail closer to sea level could also be a hazard in places ... western counties are more likely to see poor road conditions.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, brief sunny intervals but frequent and sometimes heavy mixed or wintry showers, hail rather widespread, snow more likely above 200 metres asl, where 3-5 cms could accumulate in places ... icy roads for some regions ... highs 4-7 C. Winds across the south may be moderate westerly at times, adding chill in exposed areas.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, further wintry showers, lows about zero to 3 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, still a few showers, although the mixed and wintry variety will be found at increasingly high elevations as it warms up slightly to reach 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Milder with some fog or mist, patchy light rain in far north, hazy sunshine could develop across south. Lows 1-4 C and highs 7-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy intervals, possibly some drizzle or light rain in parts of east and north, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Because the models seem to be struggling, I am going to continue to suggest percentage risks of cold and snow rather than trying to nail down a week-long outlook forecast ... the balance of probabilities would suggest that the west may remain in milder air, highs 8-11 C, some light rain at times, while the east will almost certainly be colder than that, but may not get into the deeper cold that will be lurking not far to the east ... so the chances are probably about 40% for modified cold (highs 3-6 C, some rain or sleet) and 30% for cold in the range of -4 to -1 C with some snow, or variations on those themes depending on how far west you are. The most recent model runs have had a milder theme than earlier on Wednesday, but with the frequent reversals and the size of the blocking high over Russia, the outlook is truly quite uncertain.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain is spreading gradually east towards the large cities of the east coast but may not arrive there until tonight, with mild temperatures all day (highs 12-15 C). A sleety mix of rain and wet snow is spreading into the Great Lakes region, and severe storms will continue in the mid-South (Memphis to Atlanta to Gulf coast). There is not much cold air interacting with this storm as the flow to its north is sourced from mild chinook conditions across most of the interior west, highs 8-12 C. The southwest remains warm and dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy but mostly dry, with a light rain setting in this evening. Highs 8-10 C both yesterday and today.

M.T. Cranium · 27-01-2012 8:43am

Friday, 27 January, 2012
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The further we go into this forecast period, the more speculative the pattern becomes -- I have chosen the middle ground on this and highlighted some expected regional contrasts, but for all of next week, the outcome could quite possibly be a lot colder, or a lot milder, than indicated here.

TODAY ... Continued rather cold and unsettled at first, but winds should ease later especially across the south, with a partial clearing trend, as wintry showers become increasingly confined to higher parts of the north. Rain and hail showers are most likely near sea level, but hail, sleet and snow showers may continue part or most of the day in parts of the north. Winds of 25-45 mph from WNW will back later to SW 20-30 mph, but much lighter winds can be expected in the inland south by afternoon. Highs 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud near west and north coasts, clear intervals with fog, mist and some icy or frosty conditions in valleys inland south and east, lows generally in the range of -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, showers rather isolated at first, then becoming more widespread in a moderate WSW flow 20-30 mph, highs 7-10 C, milder in west and northwest.

SATURDAY NIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals and patchy fog, mist and drizzle, rather cold, lows 2-5 C.

SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, occasional light rain, may mix with wet snow or sleet in parts of eastern Ulster and inland north Leinster, and on higher parts of Dublin and Wicklow mountains. Cold across the east, winds backing to SE at 10-20 mph, highs 3-6 C. Variable cloud, some showers possible, milder further west, highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK for NEXT WEEK ... Much of the time, there will be a marked temperature contrast from east to west as a rather diffuse front will settle in over the Irish Sea and eastern Ireland. This will lead to outbreaks of sleet, with snow possible at times especially higher elevations, but largely confined to eastern Ulster and northeast Leinster. Dublin will remain very close to this frontal boundary, and further west it will tend to stay mild except for brief intervals when the front drifts further west. Temperatures to the east of the front will be as low as -2 C at times, and generally in the range of 1-4 C. To the west, it will stay considerably milder, around 6-9 C on average, and 10 or 11 C on outer west coastal margins. This pattern could persist for several days or even the entire week. Confidence is rather low concerning details, watch for updates because as we get closer to the time, the forecast models may begin to pick up on the details which will help us with the timing. I still consider it quite plausible that a snowfall event could develop eventually, as things are in a rather fine balance between a weak Atlantic flow trying to hold its position, and a very wide-ranging cold blocking high which could at some point begin to push west more vigorously.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Ah, the relief of forecasting for a continent with moving air masses ... the northeast U.S. will be quite mild today with outbreaks of rain and highs 11-14 C, even milder near the VA-NC borders, ahead of a rather weak cold front with showers and thunderstorms. The Great Lakes will see sleet turning to wet snow and temperatures near +1 C.

The central plains states will remain cloudy and near-freezing, while the western parts of Canada and the northwest states will see some clearing and continued rather mild weather. Strong frontal systems in the far north are bringing snowfalls to the subarctic and while -20 to -25 C sounds very cold, above normal temperatures in many areas.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... We had a nice break from cloud today (Thursday) with clear skies and highs near 7 C.

M.T. Cranium · 27-01-2012 8:20pm

UPDATE _ Friday, 27 January, 2012 _ 7:30 p.m.
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Recent guidance has shifted somewhat to the colder side of the equation for next week, but there is still quite a spread in possible outcomes from the severe cold indicated on the North American based models (arriving about Thursday) and a more modified frontal zone situation suggested by the European based models. So rather than updating the forecast, we should now be watching closely for better model consensus that might indicate the actual outcome of what remains a very difficult forecast challenge (for the models, reading them is not that tricky, but you have to know which one is right, or which blend will work).

Just as a conditional forecast, if the GFS/GEM blend was correct, eastern Ireland would be looking at -5 C and 10-30 cms of snow late next week, but if the Euro and UK models were correct, it would be more of a sleety mix with temperatures 2-4 C at sea level. So the impacts would be vastly different. It is unlikely that a compromise between those two states would verify, simply because of air mass differences, either you're into the arctic air, or stuck in the transitional polar air mass.

The chances for southeast England to see severe cold and snow are now looking almost 80% on model consensus, the arctic front would reach at least a Nottingham to Isle of Wight position at some point on the weakest of the solutions now available.

M.T. Cranium · 28-01-2012 8:35am

Saturday, 28 January, 2012
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ALERT for icy patches on roads in rural parts of eastern and central Ireland to about 1030h in well-shaded locations especially in valleys.

TODAY ... Cloudy for most, some dense fog patches and icy sections on rural roads in east-central counties this morning, light rain spreading into the west and becoming drizzly or misty later as it encounters the colder air further east. Highs 7-10 C west and 4-7 C east, light to moderate SW winds.

TONIGHT ... Fog and drizzle, light rain, accumulations of about 5-15 mms heavier north-central counties, chilly with lows 2-5 C, some risk of sleet or wet snow on higher terrain.

SUNDAY ... Hazy, or misty with some lingering drizzle and light rain at times, slightly milder in southerly winds 10-20 mph, highs 8-11 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Turning colder in east Ulster and north Leinster, rain may become sleety or change to wet snow in some higher parts well inland, otherwise staying foggy and rather mild with drizzle, lows 1-3 C north/east to about 3-7 C west.

MONDAY ... The east-west divide may continue with sleety rain or wet snow at times in east Ulster and coastal Leinster, while further west most places remain a bit milder with fog, rain or drizzle at times, highs 3-6 C east, but about 7-10 C west.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Little change as fronts remain near the east coast of Ireland, any clearing at night could lead to sharp frost and icy patches on roads, but in general, this mid-week period will be cloudy with patchy light rain or sleet, milder to the west, highs in the range 3-8 C.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY ... This period could turn considerably colder, but guidance continues to be less than unanimous ... with very cold air likely to be present as close as southeast England and northeast France (-10 C or so) a sharp front will be trying to push west and could succeed in bringing sub-freezing temperatures and some outbreaks of snow to eastern counties. This may never get much further west than about Athlone to Waterford, and with mixed precipitation in that zone, milder and rain or drizzle to the west. However, at some stage, the very cold air and snow could make a push even further west. The chances are assessed at about 70% possible for cold and snow in eastern counties, to 30% in west coastal counties, during this period.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The consensus seems to be that any cold spell would begin to break down over the period Saturday-Monday 4th to 6th, after which a milder Atlantic southwest flow would return, with highs 8-10 C. However, there are some solutions that suggest a longer and more sustained cold spell.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A weak system is heading east through the Great Lakes bringing a gradual infusion of much colder air and local snow flurries or squalls mostly in the 3-5 cm range, as temperatures fall slowly towards -7 C in advance of a very cold Sunday-Monday. This modified cold will edge into the northeast states and the large cities later today, but for most of the day, it will be partly cloudy with isolated showers or wet flurries and highs 3-5 C. Central regions are generally clear and very cold under a strong arctic ridge, highs well below normal around -10 C to -20 C. (closer to the Gulf of Mexico, just above freezing) ... modified cold across much of western Canada with outbreaks of snow in the higher mountains, but no major systems.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a cloudy day with patchy light rain, less than 2 mms, but it was cold enough at first for some graupel or soft hail.

M.T. Cranium · 29-01-2012 8:23am

Sunday, 29 January, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for possible interval of severe wintry weather conditions in at least some eastern and northern counties if not most of the country, between Thursday 2nd and Monday 6th. Locally heavy snowfalls could develop in that period together with sub-freezing temperatures. The probability is currently assessed at 65% for the east and north, but only 35% for west and south. The reason for uncertainty is a large spread of outcomes on various weather models, although the majority of the guidance supports this wintry period. Further discussion both in the forecast below, and more extensively on the forum discussion threads.

TODAY ... Rather mild and foggy with periods of rain, tapering off to drizzle later, further amounts 10-15 mms in some eastern counties, 5-10 mms west. Highs 8-11 C and winds rather light to moderate southerly backing more to east later. Dense fog this evening especially at higher elevations.

TONIGHT ... Foggy and turning colder in east and north, drizzle mixing with sleet in some places, while staying relatively mild in south and west. Lows falling to 2-5 C east/north but 4-7 C south/west.

MONDAY ... Mostly cloudy, brief intervals of brighter hazy sunshine, but also scattered outbreaks of light rain, sleety at times in Ulster, north Leinster. Highs 4-7 C east/north, 7-10 C south/west.

TUESDAY ... Becoming colder in stages with drizzly or sleety and rather foggy conditions spreading west and south, temperatures steady around 4-6 C then falling slightly, outbreaks of heavier rain moving through parts of the southwest where it may remain closer to 9-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, turning steadily colder in a raw southeast wind, sleety showers in some east coast locations, possibly remaining quite a bit milder over the far west, highs generally 2-5 C east to 5-8 C west.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... This period may become very wintry with severe cold and outbreaks of snow concentrated on the east coast and parts of the north, although at times hitting the south and even the west, depending on how strong the westward push of arctic air becomes. As mentioned in the alert, there remains some chance of this not reaching Ireland and stalling in Britain, in which case the period would almost certainly be wet and rather mild with southeast to south gale force winds at times. However, the forecast we will suggest as more likely at this point is for sub-freezing temperatures to arrive on moderate southeast winds, gusty at times near the east coast, and heavy snow streamers pushing some distance inland around Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and east Ulster. Temperatures in general during this period, if the cold air does arrive, would likely be steady in a narrow range between -5 and -2 C for most, but any overnight clearing after snow could lead to much colder readings in north Leinster and east Ulster in particular.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... It would be almost certain that if the cold air arrives during the above period, a further snowstorm event would develop as milder air tries to push back into Ireland from the west around Monday-Wednesday 6-8 February. We can only speculate about details that far out, but there are strong energy peaks in this period and heavy snow could develop, together with heavy rain in the far southwest (from the current GFS model output, the rain-snow line would likely be something like Limerick to Waterford). If the preceding period did not turn cold, then this further outlook period would likely be very mild and rainy, possibly with very strong winds developing too (since the battleground would then be somewhere to the east over perhaps eastern England). We stress that this outlook period is quite speculative and there remains some chance of severe cold continuing a lot longer than model runs are suggesting (personally would say 20% chance of that).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Much colder today for the northeast U.S. as arctic air pours southeast across the Great Lakes with further heavy snow squalls in places there. Highs generally -3 C near coast to -10 C well inland. Clear and cold in Midwest, a gradually milder trend further west into the plains states on a moderate southerly wind. Heavy mountain snows in parts of B.C. and Washington, but a strong chinook developing in southern and central Alberta, while modified cold hangs on further east in the prairies and northern plains, with some outbreaks of snow. Alaska is seeing another cold wave although the high responsible is quite weak, having drifted away from the parent low in northeast Siberia. It's interesting to note that you could travel (by what means not sure) from northeast Siberia to Finland and never leave the vicinity of arctic high pressure or pressures over 1050 mbs at this point in time.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wet snow occurred in the early morning and left about 2-3 cms of slush for most of the day as it remained just cold enough to prevent fast melting at 4-5 C. A few sprinkles of rain and overcast most of the daytime hours, damp and misty at present.

(picture in my mind for Wicklow higher elevations)

M.T. Cranium · 30-01-2012 8:22am

Monday, 30 January, 2012
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ALERT for some local wet snow or sleet developing by tonight and Tuesday mostly on higher ground in north and east, followed by patchy frost and ice fog mid-week, but of more concern, ADVANCE ALERT for significant severe wintry weather arriving by Thursday especially east and north, with locally heavy snow showers possible as well as sub-freezing temperatures night and day (with brief respites near sea level) from Thursday to about Saturday, also the risk of freezing rain closer to a frontal boundary in west-central counties.

The forecast continues about the same after reviewing the latest model display which continues to straddle somewhat of a spectrum of outcomes ...

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, brief intervals of brighter hazy sunshine, but also scattered outbreaks of light rain, sleety at times in Ulster, north Leinster. Some accumulating wet snow on higher terrain in Ulster. Rainfalls may amount to 10-15 mms by late evening in southwest. Highs 4-7 C east/north, 7-10 C south/west.

TONIGHT ... Cold in north and east with sleet turning to wet snow and possibly mixed with freezing drizzle, although alternating with rain near sea level and in urban areas. Some accumulations possible in rural parts of Leinster and much of Ulster. Lows of zero to +2 C. Milder west and south with fog and rain, lows of 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Becoming colder in stages with drizzly or sleety and rather foggy conditions spreading west and south, temperatures steady around 4-6 C then falling slightly, outbreaks of heavier rain moving through parts of the southwest where it may remain closer to 9-10 C until late afternoon, then turning sharply colder also.

TUESDAY NIGHT ... Some scattered frost and ice in east and north, also a few isolated snow showers, lows near -2 C. Misty or foggy and cool with sleet in west and south, lows 1-3 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, turning steadily colder in a raw southeast wind, sleety showers in some east coast locations, possibly remaining quite a bit milder over the far west, highs generally 1-4 C east to 4-7 C west.

THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... It now seems very likely that eastern and northern counties will be into a very cold air mass that produces overnight readings of about -7 C or lower, and daytime readings of -2 to +2 C, with scattered streamer-generated snow or hail showers in parts of Wicklow, Dublin, Meath, and east Ulster. This could spread at times to parts of the south and central counties. The far west will not turn this cold, but may reach freezing or lower at night, with sleet possibly turning to snow, but with freezing rain in some inland areas, especially during the weekend when somewhat milder air tries to return east. This may in turn set off more snow in eastern Ireland. Rather early to speculate on amounts of snow in general, but local falls of 10 cms or more would be plausible.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... We are presented with two rather different end-games for this cold spell, one being a weak push of mild air that is quickly overwhelmed by further cold in waves from the northeast, or an inversion type cold high, while on the other hand the European model seems to favour my original stab in the dark of a much milder southwest flow quickly regaining the upper hand. So take your pick depending on what you would like to see, I feel that the chances are about equal for any of these outcomes.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mild air is flooding north and covering most of the central U.S. and parts of western Canada, and it remains relatively mild further west as well. Later this week a spring-like surge of warmth will develop over all of the west, this current central mild spell will be a separate feature heading off rather quickly east to bring temperatures back to around 10 or 12 C in the east by Tuesday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a drab sort of day with some heavy rain at first, then sporadic light rain later. Highs reached about 7 C.

Travel alert for anyone heading to London, by Wednesday severe cold and locally heavy snow will be into southeast England and it could promote airport and other forms of transport delays. One of the problems might be frozen switches on railways as temperatures could be well below -7 C. Any snow will likely create gridlock and Kent seems especially prone to streamers in this set-up.

M.T. Cranium · 31-01-2012 8:28am

Tuesday, 31 January, 2012
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ALERT for icy roads in a few places today and more widespread tonight, also for isolated snow flurries today and possible local accumulations following days.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although a few brief sunny intervals may develop in parts of northeast mid-day, occasional drizzle becoming sleety and turning to wet snow with slight accumulations mainly over hills; exception being southwest mainly Kerry where milder air will allow rain to continue until evening, slight accumulations 2-4 mms. Winds rather raw from southeast 20-30 mph, highs 3-6 C east, north and 6-9 C south, west.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud with some clear intervals allowing patchy freezing fog to develop as lows drop to the range of -5 to -2 C inland ... larger cities and some coastal regions likely to remain just above freezing in places ... widespread icy sections on roads, some local flurries although most places dry. Far southwest could hold on to some light rain for a while.

WEDNESDAY ... Sunny intervals, local snow showers or hail near southeast coast, small accumulations possible, staying frosty in shaded or low-lying areas, highs 1-4 C ... winds SE 25-35 mph trending more to S 20-30 mph in far west where highs 4-7 C.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ... Extensive clearing and very cold, risk of local snow showers in Wicklow and possibly other places on east coast, and isolated elsewhere, some accumulations possible mainly some distance inland Wexford and Wicklow, lows generally -8 to -4 C except closer to -2 C around exposed coasts and in far west.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, very cold, local snow showers that may be briefly heavy in places, some accumulations (5-10 cms and slight chance to 20 cms) mainly in Wexford, Wicklow, Dublin, Meath and east Ulster ... raw but moderate winds 20-30 mph at times from SSE ... highs -2 to +3 C on average.

THURSDAY NIGHT into FRIDAY ... Sleet or wet snow developing, heavy snow on higher ground in parts of south central Ireland, turning to rain near west coast, the mix all moving slowly east and appearing on east coast during Friday (possibly merging with leftover streamers) and briefly heavy especially away from the Dublin city centre or sea level ... fog and some freezing rain in the mix ... winds southerly 20-30 mph, quite raw as temperatures struggle slowly upwards above 2-3 C only by evening except for 5-8 C in west.

SATURDAY ... A few leftover patches of freezing rain or sleet should change over to rain but could turn back to wet snow later, as winds veer more to west 25-40 mph, temperatures mainly in the 4-6 C range then falling back slightly ... possible heavy snow in higher parts of the north.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, breezy, showers, generally milder especially south and west, highs 8-10 C there, more like 5-8 C elsewhere.

OUTLOOK ... I am now more confident than earlier that my "plan A" has been adopted by the models and it will turn quite mild although generally dry in a somewhat anticyclonic westerly backing to southwest later. It may in fact become very mild, odd as that many sound, 12-14 C could occur by mid-week but it will start closer to 10 C. Some chance of rain later in the week.

Speculation about reloads of arctic air or close blocking may better be described as issues for Scotland or eastern England in the pattern envisaged, the colder air is not going to be shunted a huge distance east but far enough for this outlook to be preferred.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Briefly, rather mild in most regions, with a weak storm track mainly across the southern third of Canada and even to north of that, not especially cold although vaguely wintry with wet snow or sleet in places. Across most of the U.S. and southern Canada temperatures will average 5-10 degrees above normal quite widely. A fairly strong storm will develop in the central plains during the coming week while a weaker disturbance moves across northern New England and the eastern provinces of Canada to join the end of the cold snap party by Friday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Drab and rather nondescript cloud with a bit of light rain at times, and highs on Monday near 7 C. Looking forward to better weather after two more days of this.

Frequent updates likely on the threads, I will update the forecast if I believe guidance has shifted significantly on the position of the Thursday-Friday frontal boundary. Be aware that this is already a compromise between several positions and scenarios, there are milder theories of what will happen and one or two colder depictions especially some parts of the GFS suite.

:cool:

ninebeanrows · 31-01-2012 10:11am

Thanks again MT

Just want to throw my Forecast in for the laugh.

Today:

During today cold lower level air will drip feed across the country. Dewpoints are already falling and temperatures will generally be depressed to 2-4c for most and slowly falling from 6or7c in the west to 3-5c during the day. During the evening one or two graupel/sleet showers maybe effect the east and southeast coasts. However upper air temperatures rise slightly so i don't see much chance of real snow. A sharp frost overnight with temperatures down to -4c inland however remaining near 0-3c near eastern and southern coasts.

Wednesday

Low level cold will remain over the country and it will start very frosty with dewpoints remaining below freezing all day. The liklihood of some decent sunny breaks and temperatures will rise from 2-5c during the day. It will be mostly dry with a few sprinkles of graupel or rain/sleet in some eastern and southern coastal districts. It will turn very cold during the evening and overnight with a sharp frost. Temperatures will fall to -5c inland and from -1c to +2c around exposed coasts. Some light wintry showers approaching the east and southern coasts at times and these will be readily falling as snow.

Thursday:

A very cold day across much of the country (perhaps away from the southwest coast). A few snow flurries possible in coastal districts of the east and south at first. However atlantic fronts will approach the west by evening while cold upper air temperatures feed into the east and southeast. Sharp frost overnight in most areas away from western coasts where cloud and drizzle will be approaching. Temps to -5c but upto 4c along western coasts.

Friday:

Uncertainty remains HIGH. 40% chance of significant snowfall in eastern and northeastern areas. This forecasts preferred solution is for a frontal band to push from the west turn to snow as it hits the midlands and east. Precipitation amounts likely very small at first. However there is potential for a period of snow for the eastern half of the country with accumulations of snow. Cold upper air temperatures will continue to feed from the deep cold pool in the east while a small shortwave ejects southeastwards. Precipitation will increase and heavy snow is likely on the eastern fringe. Some large accumulations likely especially on mountains.

Saturday:

The frontal feature will slowly being to move southwards. It will remain very cold in the east and northeast with a very large temperature gradient across the country. Temperatures near 10c in the southwest while areas in the east (Dublin/ Belfast) will remain near 0c.

Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

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