Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium · 26-03-2012 07:04AM

Monday, 26 March, 2012
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Astronomy note: After sunset, look for Venus close to the crescent Moon in the western skies. Jupiter will be easy to find between Venus and the horizon.

TODAY ... Any fog should dissipate quickly, and most places will enjoy another sunny and warm day with highs 16-20 C. Close to the south coast, some low cloud, fog and highs 12-15 C. A slight cooling may occur near other coasts but it will be very localized.

TONIGHT ... Clear with fog patches developing after midnight, chilly in some valley locations, lows 2-6 C there, but otherwise mild with lows 5-9 C.

TUESDAY to THURSDAY ... We continue to foresee a settled, warm spell with little change day to day, similar to Monday, with hazy sunshine, some risk of smoke from local fires, and highs continuing 16-20 C, except for some cooler sea breezes. The nights will also remain similar to tonight with a wide range of temperatures in calm, mainly clear conditions.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... The current outlook is for somewhat cooler weather to spread south, but there are uncertainties about how fast that cooler air will push the warm air mass south, so for now, we'll take a compromise and predict highs of about 13-15 C north to 15-19 C south on Friday and slightly cooler on Saturday. Some additional cloud that may contain patchy drizzle could also accompany the cooler air mass so this will become more likely in Ulster by Friday night.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cooler turn continues to appear shallow and brief, with a return to rather warm conditions likely, before some indications of a more substantial cold incursion from the north around the Easter weekend.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Much colder today in the Great Lakes region, clearing after some morning cloud, highs -2 to +3 C. Cloudy in the northeast U.S. and turning colder later today except south of NYC where it will be tonight before colder air arrives. Highs before the front 14-17 C. Further south cloudy and rather warm with highs 17-20 C. The central plains states will see a warming southerly wind with highs back towards 20 C. Low pressure in Montana will bring mountain snow and valley rains there and in southern Alberta and southeast B.C., Idaho. Cloud and rain will also spread inland on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was sunny with increasing cloud and a mild high of about 13 C. Fully overcast now, rain on the way.

M.T. Cranium · 27-03-2012 06:56AM

Tuesday, 27 March, 2012
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TODAY ... Warming up rapidly again with hazy sunshine, some isolated smoke haze in west ... highs 16-20 C except 12-15 C south coast.

TONIGHT ... Mostly clear with fog patches developing after midnight, lows between 3 and 7 C for most, 8-10 C some coastal and hilly areas where inversions don't develop as readily.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Little change for most, except for some increase in cloud across the north later Thursday. Highs 16-20 C, morning lows 3-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy in Ulster and northern parts of Connacht, Leinster, somewhat cooler with highs 13-15 C. Partly cloudy to sunny south, highs still very warm 15-19 C.

SATURDAY ... More extensive cloud, some patchy drizzle in Ulster, but still some sunny intervals inland south and west. Highs generally 12-15 C but 15-17 C southwest.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY ... Continuing mostly dry with highs generally 13-16 C in light to moderate NW'ly breezes, more cloud north at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold but sunny in the northeast for a change, highs only 4-7 C (to about -1 C northern New England and Quebec). Cloud spreading across the Great Lakes, light sleet or snow around Lake Superior. Rain across the northern plains states, spreading into southern Manitoba and the western Great Lakes tonight, highs 6-10 C. South of that, very warm again with sunshine and southerly winds, highs 22-26 C (trending to about 28-32 C in Texas). Isolated thunderstorms west Texas. Some cloud and rain in Oregon, Washington and coastal B.C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was overcast with drizzle at times, and light fog, highs about 10 C. Spring continues backward with slow advances in the vegetation so far.

M.T. Cranium · 28-03-2012 06:39AM

Wednesday, 28 March, 2012
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TODAY ... The morning chill (-1 at Mullingar at 0600h) will quickly give way to another sunny, warm day although some southeast coastal districts will have a chilly sea breeze making slight progress inland. Highs generally 17-21 C but 13-16 C near shore. Some haze in southwest and parts of north from local fires or more distant sources.

TONIGHT ... Another clear and locally rather cold night with frost possible, lows -1 to +4 C for most, but 5-9 C in urban and hilly locations.

THURSDAY ... One more sunny and warm day for most, increasing cloud in Ulster ... highs generally 16-20 C but may be held to 14 C near north, east and south facing coasts.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy in north and east at times, local drizzle, turning a bit cooler with highs 13-16 C. Partly sunny west and south, highs 16-19 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Partly cloudy to overcast Saturday, local drizzle, then partly cloudy Sunday, both days a bit cooler than this week, highs 12-16 C. Some local frosts but average lows 2-5 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are now scattered with some indications of a cooler trend during the week, other suggestions of continued dry and near normal temperatures.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Much milder again in northeast states, highs 16-21 C. Cloudy across the Great Lakes with a few showers, highs about 12-15 C away from warmer regions in south. The warm weather extends throughout most of the central U.S. with outbreaks of showers developing along a weak front in the plains states, highs 22-25 C. Rain spreading into west coast, cool, highs 10-13 C. Rather cold across the Canadian prairies with some snow, sleet, highs -2 to +2 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was a cloudy and rather mild day with a few outbreaks of light rain, highs near 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 29-03-2012 07:57AM

Thursday, 29 March, 2012
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TODAY ... One more sunny and warm day for most, but increasing cloud in Ulster, spreading into north Connacht and Leinster by mid-day ... highs generally 16-20 C but may be held to 12-14 C in north, and near east facing coasts.

TONIGHT ... Extensive cloud compared to previous nights will keep lows up around 5-9 C for most, inland southwest now more likely to see the lower readings of 2-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy in north and east at times, local drizzle, turning a bit cooler with highs 13-16 C. Cloudy to partly sunny west and south, highs 16-19 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast Saturday, local drizzle, highs 10-13 C north to 13-16 C south, after morning lows of 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... Some morning frosts with lows 2-5 C on average, then partly cloudy Sunday, highs 12-16 C, with warmest readings in southwest.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning colder in stages, highs may only reach 8-11 C on Monday and Tuesday especially in north and east, some scattered outbreaks of light rain but generally 1-3 mms rain. Winds moderate NW to N stronger in eastern counties (20-35 mph). The early indications are for even colder and unsettled weather at times around Easter.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The warmer air is again being pushed south by rather weak fronts so that the larger cities of the northeast will see morning highs of 14-16 C then a slight drop to 10-12 C under cloud later. Great Lakes already in the colder air will see clearing for a while and highs 8-10 C. Scattered outbreaks of light rain in the Midwest and northern plains states, trending to some snow in west-central Canada, temperatures generally near normal values (3-8 C) but continuing very warm in the central and southern plains states with a few thunderstorms developing in central KS-OK into west-central TX, highs around 25 C. Windy and showery near the west coast trending to mountain snows, rather cool for late March, highs near 10 C coast and valleys and 3-6 C inland higher elevations.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a cloudy and showery day with a few outbreaks of heavier rain, strong wind gusts at times from southeast and highs near 11 C.

M.T. Cranium · 30-03-2012 07:26AM

Friday, 30 March, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals more frequent in southwest (except for some persistent smoke haze) and somewhat cooler especially in Ulster where some drizzle is possible at times ... highs 11-15 C northeast to 15-18 C southwest.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few clear intervals, some drizzle continuing in parts of Ulster, lows generally 6-9 C but 2-5 C in parts of inland south.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, mostly dry except for some drizzle or light showers near north coast. Winds light in most places, to moderate northerly at times near east coast. Highs 12-15 C.

SUNDAY ... After a rather chilly start, lows 3-6 C with isolated ground frost, the day will be pleasant and partly cloudy with highs 13-16 C. Isolated light showers may continue near north coast.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain spreading south, 3-5 mms possible in Ulster, 1-3 mms elsewhere. Lows 3-6 C and highs 7-10 C north to about 11-13 C south.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, rain becoming showery by mid-day and possibly ending as sleet on hills, chilly, lows 4-6 C and highs 7-10 C for most but 11-13 C near south coast.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cold with a reinforcing push of colder air possible from the north around the Easter weekend. Unsettled at times. Temperatures generally below normal with highs near 10 C or lower. The ECM model trend is more moderate in temperature trends over the Easter weekend than other models, which show more of the secondary northerly whereas at the moment the ECM would suggest showers at times in a westerly flow. I don't regard the signals as very strong and either outcome seems plausible.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain has developed across the western Great Lakes and will move east, changing to snow in parts of Michigan and south-central Ontario, later upstate New York and New England, as the low interacts with colder air already present in northern Ontario and Quebec. Highs will range from -2 C in that air mass to 10 C near the track of the low itself through Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The rain-snow line will be approximately Bay City MI to Toronto ON to Boston MA. South of the frontal wave it should remain fairly warm all day with highs near 20 C in DC and Virginia, 25 C in the southeast states. Very little cold air will push south behind this system as another low forms in the Dakotas and holds back the colder air, so the plains states will remain warm, with a few thunderstorms continuing, highs in the 20s. Another storm is moving inland over Washington state spreading rain and mountain snow inland, but a stronger low will arrive late today and change rain to snow at fairly low elevations. All of this activity will promote a mild spell in the Canadian prairies until late Saturday, then colder air will move south there.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday has been a wet day with about 20-30 mms of rain and highs near 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 31-03-2012 06:50AM

Saturday, 31 March, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some breaks, patchy drizzle near north coasts. Highs around 10-13 C north, to 13-15 C south. Winds moderate northerly (20-35 mph) in some eastern coastal locations, otherwise 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals in south, fog or mist patches, drizzle at times in north ... lows generally 4-7 C but 1-4 C possible in any clear spots.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy with some decent sunny breaks possible especially in the west and south, highs about 12-15 C. Light to moderate west to northwest winds.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with drizzle turning to light rain with 3-5 mms likely in Ulster, 1-3 mms elsewhere ... cooler with lows 2-5 C and highs only 7-10 C in the north, 10-13 C south. Winds turning more to northeast and strengthening over eastern counties to 20-30 mph, quite chilly as a result. Hill fog or low cloud.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning rain becoming sleety on higher ground and possibly turning to snow before ending, lows only 1-3 C and highs in the range of 6-8 C for most, 10-12 C in some coastal districts.

WEDNESDAY ... Sharp morning frosts and cool with variable cloud during the daytime, still the risk of some sleety or wintry showers, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Somewhat milder again with intervals of cloud and sun, lows about 2 C and highs about 10-12 C.

GOOD FRIDAY ... From this distance, would expect a rather cool and windy day with showers, highs near 9 C.

EASTER WEEKEND ... First indications suggest a cool and breezy to windy weekend with passing showers, some possibly wintry, but there is a range of uncertainty about temperature in the below to near normal spectrum (warmth seems unlikely).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Generally speaking the system crossing the northeast is rather weak but could unleash some local snowfalls in New England especially on hills in the range of 5-15 cms, but most places will see sleet or a cold rain, with thunderstorms further south around Philadelphia and Baltimore. Highs will range from near zero C in higher parts of the northeast to about 10-13 C around Atlantic City to 20 C in Richmond VA. Otherwise most of the east and central states will remain in the long-lived warm spell with highs into the 20s, and this will promote another line of thunderstorms across parts of the plains states, with mild temperatures well into central Canada ahead of a gusty frontal system in British Columbia that will bring rain near sea level and snow in the higher levels inland, both in B.C. and the U.S. Pacific northwest regions.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a somewhat nondescript day with a few sunny breaks but mostly cloudy skies and highs near 10 C. Rain is moving in tonight with broken skies at 10 p.m. revealing glimpses of the half moon and planets. Expecting sleet or even wet snow here on Saturday depending on elevation.

M.T. Cranium · 01-04-2012 06:53AM

Sunday, 1 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy with some decent sunny breaks possible especially in the west and south, highs about 12-15 C. Light to moderate west to northwest winds. Somewhat more cloud in north, highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, chilly, some frost possible inland valleys, lows in the range of -2 to +4 C.

MONDAY ... Some morning sunshine in south, otherwise cloudy with drizzle turning to light rain with 3-5 mms likely in Ulster, 1-3 mms elsewhere ... highs only 7-10 C in the north, 10-13 C south. Winds turning more to northeast and strengthening over eastern counties to 20-30 mph, quite chilly as a result. Hill fog or low cloud.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, morning rain becoming sleety on higher ground and possibly turning to snow before ending, lows only 1-3 C and highs in the range of 6-8 C for most, 10-12 C in some coastal districts.

WEDNESDAY ... Sharp morning frosts and cool with variable cloud during the daytime, still the risk of some sleety or wintry showers, lows -2 to +2 C and highs 5-9 C.

THURSDAY ... Somewhat milder again with intervals of cloud and sun, lows about 2 C and highs about 10-12 C.

GOOD FRIDAY and EASTER WEEKEND ... The more likely outcome is for partly cloudy to overcast and rather cool weather in a moderate northerly, although some models are showing a return to higher pressure and possibly a warming trend, so signals are mixed ... hoping for more clarity on this by Monday's forecast.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold and clear in New England and eastern Great Lakes, with cloud and outbreaks of sleet or light rain with a broad and rather weak frontal trough extending from the northern plains across the western Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic states. Warmer air is now depressed south of this front into the southeast and south-central plains states. Rain and mountain snow in the west, continuing rather mild in the Canadian prairies ahead of a slow-moving front now approaching Calgary.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday (31st) was a cloudy day with outbreaks of rain, highs only about 5-6 C.

Gerry howley · 01-04-2012 10:38PM

a light dustin of snow here in castlebar winds light

M.T. Cranium · 02-04-2012 07:41AM

Monday, 2 April, 2012
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TODAY ... With increasing cloud across the south, most places will start overcast and remain mostly cloudy with brief brighter if not sunny intervals ... showers or a period of rain (sleety on hills) will drift south from north Leinster and some local amounts of 3-7 mms are possible around Westmeath and Offaly, nearby parts of other counties ... chilly with highs only 7-10 C in north, 9-12 C south.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, sleety showers likely with some snow beginning to accumulate on higher parts of Ulster and north Connacht ... more frequent dry intervals in south but scattered frost developing ... lows generally 1-3 C but could fall to -2 C in a few spots inland southwest.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, wintry showers likely, some hail and thunder and possible accumulations of snow especially above 200m, risk of some heavy wintry precip in bands moving inland from Irish Sea north of Dublin then later around Dublin ... in general, 3-6 mms rain or 3-6 cms snow or hail in various places, but risk of heavier falls in a few locations ... very chilly in a steady NE wind 20-35 mph, highs only 4-7 C in most places, and where it gets a bit milder it could still fall into that range during showers.

WEDNESDAY ... Sharp morning frost for many in west and central counties, more risk of wintry showers continuing in east, before some clearing later, quite cold all day with lows in the range of -4 to +2 C and highs 5-9 C. The chilly northeast wind (20-40 mph) will continue (this may be less biting in Donegal which could have somewhat better conditions in general being closer to a ridge of high pressure to the northwest).

THURSDAY ... Another sharp frost likely, lows -6 to -2 C, the winds not so strong and with more April sunshine a slight recovery in daytime temperatures to about 8-12 C.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, winds becoming moderate northwest backing more to westerly, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-12 C.

EASTER WEEKEND ... Somewhat more confidence now in a milder solution with relatively pleasant temperatures and partly cloudy skies, some gusty breezes at times, highs around 12-14 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The current indications are more in the "near normal" or seasonable range than some earlier sets which had been showing quite cold weather continuing ... but I don't consider these signals all that set.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Chilly weather will continue in the northeast, Great Lakes and parts of the mid-Atlantic states, with outbreaks of sleet or rain, highs only 7-10 C. Warmer air is confined to the central and southern plains states where it will become increasingly humid, highs 24-28 C and with an increasing spread of thunderstorms both ahead of the warm air and within the air mass near a cold front in the Rocky Mountain foothills. West of that, mostly cloudy and cool with outbreaks of heavy rain at times, near the west coast in particular.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday started out pleasant with sunny intervals, then became overcast with rain starting this evening (not very heavy so far, but expecting a downpour on Monday). Highs were about 11 C on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium · 03-04-2012 06:48AM

Tuesday, 3 April, 2012
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ALERT for possible wintry showers later today and tomorrow, bringing slippery or icy road conditions mainly in higher elevations (above 300m) but at times, due to hail mostly, at some lower elevations. These conditions may be more likely in Leinster than elsewhere.

TODAY and TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few brighter intervals, widespread showers becoming wintry at times later, with some hail and thunder and possible accumulations of snow especially above 250m, risk of some heavy wintry precip in bands moving inland from Irish Sea north of Dublin then later around Dublin (by afternoon or evening) ... in general, 3-6 mms rain or 3-6 cms snow or hail in various places, but risk of heavier falls in a few locations ... very chilly in a steady NE wind 20-35 mph, highs only 4-7 C in most places, and where it gets a bit milder it could still fall into that range during showers. Watch for updates as this is the classic "nowcast" situation developing. Overnight these conditions are likely to continue and may intensify in some parts, with lows generally 1-3 C but slight frosts possible further west due to locally clear skies, lows -3 to +1 C western counties.

WEDNESDAY ... Sharp morning frost for many in west and central counties, more risk of wintry showers continuing in east, before some clearing later, quite cold all day with lows in the range of -4 to +2 C and highs 5-9 C. The chilly northeast wind (20-40 mph) will continue (this may be less biting in Donegal which could have somewhat better conditions in general being closer to a ridge of high pressure to the northwest).

THURSDAY ... Another sharp frost likely, lows -6 to -2 C, the winds not so strong and with more April sunshine a slight recovery in daytime temperatures to about 8-12 C.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, and possibly a more organized band of light rain for parts of the north, as winds become moderate northwest backing more to westerly, 20-40 mph, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-12 C. Some potential for 5-10 mms of rain.

EASTER WEEKEND ... SATURDAY will bring variable cloud and isolated showers in moderate to strong northwest winds, highs around 11 C ... EASTER SUNDAY should be somewhat improved with longer sunny intervals and more isolated showers, some places remaining dry, winds WNW 15-30 mph, and highs about 12-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... There is somewhat more chance now that a colder "reload" of north to northeast winds may develop next week. However, with the models constantly shifting confidence in all solutions is rather low, except to say that northern blocking high pressure seems to fit the general trend of current hemispheric patterns.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... While the east warms up slightly with cloud breaking, temperatures will remain no warmer than seasonal at 10-14 C. Warm and humid in the southeast, southern and central plains states, with outbreaks of very heavy rain around LA, AR, OK and n TX, some severe storms developing. Rain on the west coast will turn more to sleet or snow over the Rockies, possibly leading to heavy snow by late tonight in parts of Montana and Alberta.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was cloudy but dry until just recently with rain moving in this evening; chilly with a gusty wind, highs about 8-10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 04-04-2012 07:12AM

Wednesday, 4 April, 2012
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ALERT continued for wintry showers, some accumulations of snow and icy or slippery roads, mainly in southeast counties to mid-day.

TODAY ... Snow, hail or sleet will continue in some parts of the east and southeast, with isolated wintry showers elsewhere in an otherwise clearing and very cold northeast flow ... winds generally NE 15-30 mph but closer to 25-45 mph in coastal and exposed parts of Leinster as well as near the north-facing coasts of Donegal and Mayo. Highs only 3-7 C with significant wind chill especially in the east. Wintry showers may change to rain around mid-day although the trend will be for all this activity to die out by afternoon. Some accumulations of 3-6 cms snow or hail could develop but mostly on higher sections of Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford.

TONIGHT ... Mostly clear and very cold, some lingering cloud and isolated wintry showers near the Wexford coast, winds NE 15-30 mph, and lows in the range of -5 to -2 C for most places, somewhat higher in onshore flows.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals and cold, some cloud lingering near south coast, slight risk of isolated wintry showers, not as windy except NE 15-30 mph in southeast counties mid-day. Highs generally 6-10 C.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some sleet or rain developing in a northwest flow then turning milder, lows -2 to +3 C and highs 8-11 C.

HOLY SATURDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, passing showers, moderate northwest winds, lows 2-5 C and highs 9-13 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... Increasing cloud, chance of showers then periods of rain by late afternoon or evening, moderate to strong westerly winds, lows about 4 to 6 C and highs 11 to 13 C.

EASTER MONDAY ... Windy and showery with some heavy rainfalls possible, turning a bit colder again, lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy, unsettled, rather cold most of next week, and some risk of another wintry episode later in the week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers, thunderstorms moving northeast towards Arkansas, Missouri then into the Ohio valley, warm and humid in these regions and across the south-central plains, trending to cold and windy in west Texas and New Mexico, Colorado. Further west and to the north, a frontal system moving across the Rockies will change rain to snow in parts of Montana and Alberta, leading to heavy falls around Calgary later today, falling temperatures throughout. The eastern states will remain rather bland with near normal temperatures and scattered outbreaks of rain, but a weak cold front dropping south in the Great Lakes region will keep temperatures closer to 8-10 C today. Newfoundland will see bands of rain, sleet and snow from east to west, as deep low pressure edges closer from the south.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was a cloudy day with light rain at times, then a bit of clearing late afternoon, highs about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium · 05-04-2012 07:26AM

Thursday, 5 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast and mainly dry with slight risk of an isolated shower (could be a wintry shower in northwest). Winds rather light except ENE 20-40 mph near Wexford coast. Patchy light rain by this evening in northwest. Highs 7-10 C, so rather chilly especially out of the sun.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with occasional light rain, somewhat milder, lows 3-5 C.

GOOD FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of light rain heavier in north but generally 2-5 mms at most, highs about 12 C with moderate WNW winds 20-35 mph at times.

HOLY SATURDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, showers (1-3 mms) with lows around 4 C and highs around 11 C. Winds moderate W-NW (20-30 mph).

EASTER SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, but could be pleasant at first, with more chance of rain and blustery wind later (WSW 30-50 mph in Connacht by later afternoon) ... 3-7 mms of rain on average ... lows 3-6 C and highs 10-13 C.

EASTER MONDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, chilly, blustery SW veering to WNW winds, hail possible, lows 4-7 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Most of the following week will probably be unsettled and cool with highs generally struggling to reach 10 C, some rain at times, and chilly nights 2-5 C. Isolated frost can be expected inland.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The southeast states will be wet and the first round of the Masters golf (Augusta, GA) could be delayed at times by excessive rain or lightning. Warm and humid with highs 22-25 C. Further north, the weather will be chilly and unsettled with highs 10-13 C. Mild and humid in the plains states north into Manitoba, with snow advancing east from Alberta into western Saskatchewan and eastern Montana. This snow will reach the northern plains and Manitoba on Friday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was partly cloudy and breezy with a high of about 9 C. At least we saw the sun which has been a rare treat here in recent weeks.

M.T. Cranium · 06-04-2012 06:53AM

Friday, 6 April, 2012
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Astronomy note -- Full moon occurs this evening around 7:20 p.m.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although a few bright or sunny intervals may come and go this morning in the south ... outbreaks of showery and mostly light rain in the north later, only 1-3 mms expected, one or two heavier showers could develop this evening in north Connacht, Ulster or north Leinster ... moderate NW'ly winds may back more to WSW at times as weak troughs develop ... highs 10-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, drizzle in some places, lows 3-6 C although closer to 8 C west coast.

SATURDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, showers (1-3 mms) with lows around 4 C and highs around 11 C. Winds moderate W-NW (20-30 mph).

EASTER SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, but could be pleasant at first, with more chance of rain and blustery wind later (WSW 30-50 mph in Connacht by later afternoon) ... 5-10 mms of rain on average ... lows 3-6 C and highs 10-13 C.

EASTER MONDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, some heavy with hail or thunder, chilly, blustery SW veering to WNW winds, lows 4-7 C and highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Continued unsettled, cool, some breaks but occasional heavy showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... The signals are generally cooler than average for the foreseeable future although some days may be close to normal, with a weak northerly steering flow indicated for several more days.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The southeast states will see cooler weather by afternoon with a few more showers (Augusta GA escaped relatively unscathed on Thursday) ... cool and dry in the northeast states ... warm and humid in most of the central U.S. as far north as southern Manitoba, with snow spreading from Montana into Saskatchewan and western North Dakota. This will reach Manitoba by Saturday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was pleasant with sunny intervals, but frequent shower clouds developed just to the north, reports of local hail on the "north shore" mountains.

M.T. Cranium · 07-04-2012 07:28AM

Saturday, 7 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, some places remaining dry despite a few isolated showers (1-3 mms) and highs around 11 or 12 C. Winds moderate W-NW (20-30 mph).

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks, drizzly showers in a few places, and lows about 7 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... Mostly cloudy, but could be pleasant at first, with more chance of rain and blustery wind later (WSW 30-50 mph in Connacht by later afternoon) ... 5-10 mms of rain on average, heavier amounts in north and west (later arrival in southeast) ... highs 10-13 C.

EASTER MONDAY ... Cloudy, showers or periods of rain, some heavy with hail or thunder, chilly, blustery SW veering to WNW winds at 20-40 mph (30-50 mph Kerry, west Cork), lows 4-7 C and highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Continued unsettled, cool, some breaks but occasional heavy showers, lows 4-7 C and highs 9-12 C. Winds generally light to moderate northwest to north.

OUTLOOK ... Little change with temperatures slightly below normal especially for daytime, and unsettled, although some days relatively dry.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... First and foremost, the weather will be lovely in Augusta GA and most of the southeast U.S. with sunshine and highs about 19 C, fresh northwest breezes today, and sunny/warm on Sunday with highs near 24 C. Low humidity. Further west, warm and humid today with showers tomorrow. Northeast states, cool and dry with a slight warming trend before a weak cold front arrives later Sunday. Northern plains and Canadian prairies are cold and windy (except eastern ND, southeast MB turning colder mid-day) with a few snow flurries, heavier accumulations in west-central Manitoba. This colder air is near or below freezing and that cold will deepen gradually tomorrow as arctic high pressure forms to the north and drifts south. That will have no effect west of Alberta where it's a dry southeast flow between the frontal systems and an offshore storm that may drift ashore Sunday bringing showers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was partly cloudy and mild with highs around 12 C, and a fresh breeze from the south. There were local showers that missed my location.

M.T. Cranium · 08-04-2012 06:42AM

Easter Sunday, 8 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although some brief morning sunny intervals possible in the south, increasing chance of showers from west to east by afternoon with 5-10 mms potential, winds increasing to SW 20-40 mph (30-50 mph in Connacht, west Ulster) and highs near 11 C north to 14 C southeast, 12-13 for most other places.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, breezy to windy, periods of rain (5-15 mms) and lows around 7 or 8 C ... winds SW 25-45 mph (higher gusts near west coast).

MONDAY ... Squally showers developing through the later morning hours from west to east as a sharp front passes, then variable cloud and cooler, windy (winds veering SW to NW 20-40 mph, some higher gusts possible). Highs around 10 C although feeling colder at times by afternoon.

TUESDAY ... Breezy, chilly with slight risk of morning frosts well inland, otherwise lows 2-5 C, and daytime passing showers in a northerly breeze, highs near 9 C north to 11 C south.

OUTLOOK ... Little change with a northerly flow and occasional showers to the end of the week, chilly for mid-April. Some isolated frosts and chance of a heavier spell of rain next weekend. The following week also looks quite chilly and could be almost wintry at times.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... See yesterday's discussion which covered the weekend ... mostly sunny with cloudy periods for the final round of the Masters golf, 22-24 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a near-perfect clear day with highs around 13 C although a cool breeze in the shade.

M.T. Cranium · 09-04-2012 06:47AM

Monday, 9 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Blustery morning showers followed by variable skies and further showers, some with hail or thunder, as winds veer from SW 20-40 mph to a more westerly direction, some higher gusts especially west Munster. Highs will be near 11 C south and 9 C north but it will feel quite cold at times. Further rainfalls of about 10-15 mms.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with showers becoming more isolated, then some clear intervals with risk of scattered frost inland ... lows -1 to +3 C.

TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, cool, moderate northerly winds stronger over the Irish Sea and nearby coasts, a few showers some with hail or thunder. Highs 8-11 C coolest in north.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Generally similar, cool and unsettled at times, although with some sunny breaks each day, in a moderate northwest to northerly flow. Slight frosts at night well inland. Lows -1 to +3 C and highs in the range of 8 to 12 C.

SATURDAY and SUNDAY ... Quite cool for mid-April with northeast winds, the risk of frost and wintry showers especially in Ulster and north Leinster, with highs possibly failing to reach 8-10 C and lows in the range -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... No major warming is foreseen although the following week could see temperatures a little closer to normal.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Generally weak systems but a cooling trend in the northeast states and the Great Lakes, northern plains and eastern prairies, all due to a gradually intensifying northerly flow as arctic high pressure drops slowly south into the Dakotas. Temperatures generally a few degrees below normal in this zone. The southeast states continue mild and dry with partly cloudy skies, not quite as warm as Sunday though. Warmer than average for a change in the far west due to subsiding southeast winds coming out to the coast from the Great Basin region. Highs into the lower 20s as far north as south-central B.C. and 24-27 C in parts of Idaho, Utah and Nevada, 27-32 C in Arizona.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was pleasantly warm although mostly cloudy by afternoon, highs 18-20 C. Rain is holding off and falling out to the west near the coast of Vancouver Island.

M.T. Cranium · 10-04-2012 06:32AM

Tuesday, 10 April, 2012
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TODAY ... A few sunny intervals at first, with clouds and showers (some wintry on higher ground in north) and eventually some hail or thunder, all spreading in gradually from the west then dying out this evening again ... winds moderate west to northwest 15-30 mph ... highs 8-11 C milder in the south.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals developing, frost possible inland, lows -2 to +3 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY ... Both days about the same with intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers at times, and rather chilly with highs only about 9-12 C (highest south and east) and morning lows -2 to +3 C. Winds moderate northwest backing to westerly at times.

FRIDAY ... Somewhat milder in the west as rain spreads in from the Atlantic but remaining quite cool elsewhere, some longer dry intervals in Ulster and Leinster as winds become more northerly then northeasterly, isolated wintry showers possible. Highs about 12 C west but 8-10 C elsewhere.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Variable cloud with some sunny intervals, cool or even cold in some parts due to a moderate northeast wind, isolated wintry showers and some sharp morning frosts especially west-central inland counties, highs generally 8-11 C and lows -3 to +2 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Gradually turning a bit milder although struggling to get above normal at any point. Probably somewhat unsettled throughout.

NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... We are recovering from Bubba Watson's backswing but otherwise the weather is rather bland and turning colder by the day in the eastern and north-central states and nearby parts of Canada, with sub-freezing daytime temperatures from about western Manitoba to northeast Ontario, highs 4-8 C further south but still the risk of a passing snow flurry or hail shower. Much warmer than that in the southeast and south central states where another low is developing and will gradually produce severe weather later in the week. Warm to the west coast in a rather static southeast flow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Partly cloudy with warm sunshine at times on Monday, highs near 22 C ... trees are now racing ahead to catch up to the normal schedule (quite often, they are fully in leaf around here by mid-April).

M.T. Cranium · 11-04-2012 07:11AM

Wednesday, 11 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, widespread showers developing, some with hail and thunder again, highs 10 to 13 C (milder south). Winds moderate northwest although variable at times.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals and chilly with the risk of frost well inland, showers becoming isolated then dying out, lows -2 to +3 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, cool, scattered showers. Highs 9-12 C. Winds moderate northerly at times.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, more chance of rain west and south, with brighter or sunny intervals at times in Ulster, lows about -2 to +3 C then afternoon temperatures 10-12 C although possibly 8-10 C for parts of Ulster. Winds becoming variable then north to northeast.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Rather cold with sharp frosts under partly cloudy to clear skies at night, lows -4 to +1 C for most, isolated wintry showers in a northeast wind on Saturday, less likely on Sunday as winds drop off or turn more to south. Highs both days only 8-11 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat milder next week for a few days then possibly another chilly, unsettled interval developing.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cold in the northeast states, Great Lakes, northern plains and eastern prairies, as arctic air flows south with a few areas of flurries or hail showers and temperatures generally not much above freezing daytime and sharp frosts at night. Warmer elsewhere, with outbreaks of thunderstorms in south central states, and across the Rockies. This will lead to some heavy rainfalls in Montana and Alberta on Thursday. Temperatures as high as 22-25 C ahead of this disturbance and falling slightly near the coast in a weak northerly flow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was another warm and bright day with considerable high cloud, a weak sea breeze holding highs in the 15-18 C range locally, 20-23 C further inland.

M.T. Cranium · 12-04-2012 07:36AM

Thursday, 12 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Increasing cloud from west again, with showers spreading across most of the west and south, more isolated in east and north ... amounts generally slight, 1-3 mms ... rather chilly especially under cloud and showers, highs about 10-12 C ... winds moderate NW 15-30 mph at times.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, showers becoming isolated, some mist patches developing, lows 2-4 C (slight chance of frost north central inland).

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud and chilly, showers developing, some with hail, and possibly a few becoming wintry on higher terrain central and north ... winds more northerly then becoming NE 10-20 mph in Ulster and north Leinster. Highs about 8-10 C for most, 10-13 C west and south coasts.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, quite cold for mid-April, wintry showers possible in parts of east and north, isolated and non-wintry more likely in south and west, winds NE 15-30 mph adding chill ... morning lows -2 to +2 C and highs about 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... Clear and quite cold to start, frosts with lows -3 to +2 C, then increasing cloud, light winds most of the day becoming southeast to south by evening and increasing to 20-40 mph as rain (sleet higher northern locations) spreads in from west. Highs 9-12 C but may be achieved late after quite a cool mid-day 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Next week is starting to look very unsettled and perhaps even stormy at times with deep Atlantic lows possible in the nearby marine regions, so expect strong winds, rather chilly (10-12 C) and at least normal if not above normal rainfall.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Systems are moving very slowly, so it's the same story as yesterday basically, rain spreading into western regions, that will later become heavy snow over higher inland regions, but quite warm for today east of the Rockies and into the central plains states where another batch of heavy thunderstorms is likely. Eastern states and most of east-central Canada still quite chilly with mixed wintry showers in places, and a slow warming trend ahead.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday turned cloudy mid-morning then a light rain developed with temperatures steady near 10 C. Further east in the province it remained sunny and mild to warm but thunderstorms are developing over the inland mountain ranges tonight.

M.T. Cranium · 13-04-2012 06:32AM

Friday, 13 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Variable cloud and chilly, some decent sunny intervals but with showers developing, some with hail or thunder, and possibly a few becoming wintry on higher terrain central and north ... winds more northerly and then becoming NE 10-20 mph in Ulster and north Leinster. Highs about 8-10 C for most, 10-13 C west and south coasts. Precip quite variable and in many cases light (trace to 2 mms) but in a few locations heavier (5-15 mms is possible, most likely in a zone from about Louth to Laois as well as upslope east facing slopes south of Dublin).

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers dying out, some clear intervals with frost developing, lows -3 to +2 C. Warming rather slowly after sunrise (compared to most April mornings).

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, quite cold for mid-April, wintry showers possible in parts of east and north, isolated and non-wintry more likely in south and west, winds NE 15-30 mph adding chill ... highs about 8-10 C. There could be some rather prolonged sunny intervals in western half of the country.

SUNDAY ... Clear and quite cold to start, frosts with lows -3 to +2 C, then increasing cloud, light winds most of the day becoming southeast to south by evening and increasing to 20-40 mph as rain (sleet higher northern locations) spreads in from west. Highs 9-12 C but may be achieved late after quite a cool mid-day 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy and cool with periods of rain in a steady S-SW wind of about 20-30 mph, morning temperatures rising after midnight when it could be as cold as -2 C, then about 5 C daybreak and 10-12 C mid-day. Rainfalls of about 10 mms on average can be expected.

TUESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, gradually increasing winds from SW veering to WNW by evening and rising to 40-65 mph in western counties with some severe gusts by evening. These stronger winds are likely to be confined to coastal regions from about Belmullet to Cork, while the rest of the country remains under a slacker gradient and more moderate winds, with low pressure dropping southeast through Ireland (stay tuned for more reliable tracking and timing). Highs 9-12 C, rainfalls about 15 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds moderating but these 20-40 mph winds then spreading to all regions in a northerly flow, quite chilly with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and rather cool, unsettled through end of week and into the following weekend, and possibly very chilly for late April in the week after that as guidance currently indicates a wintry northeast flow that could be barely milder than 5 C daytime. This may moderate in more reliable forecast time but something to keep watching ... quite a contrast from April 2011 !

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The west remains unsettled with showers in the wake of a strong frontal system now into Alberta and Montana where rain turns to snow around the lower foothills elevation of 1,200m. Some heavy falls of snow or rain depending on location can be expected. Mild with southeast winds in the Dakotas, Saskatchewan and later Manitoba, then the rain will move in there tonight. Outbreaks of thunderstorms in the south central states, warm and humid. Warming gradually spreading to the Great Lakes and northeast states today after several cool days, highs back above normal (16-20 C).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was a typical spring day of contrasts, some pleasant warm sunny intervals mid-day and some blustery showers with local hail and strong winds -- the precip missed my location but outflow wind gusts were strong at times. Highs today were about 14 C but it cooled quickly to about 8 C near showers.

M.T. Cranium · 14-04-2012 06:23AM

Saturday, 14 April, 2012
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ALERT for frosts and icy sections on roads early today and again on Sunday morning mostly well inland and in valleys. ADVANCE ALERT for possible strong winds in western counties on Tuesday, gusts to 70 mph possible.

TODAY ... Early frost, then partly cloudy, quite cold for mid-April, wintry showers of hail or snow possible in parts of east and north, isolated and non-wintry showers more likely in south and west, winds NE 15-30 mph adding chill ... highs about 8-10 C. There could be some rather prolonged sunny intervals in western half of the country.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, quite cold with frosts developing and lows between -3 and +2 C.

SUNDAY ... Clear and quite cold to start, then sunny with increasing cloud, light winds most of the day becoming southeast to south by evening and increasing to 20-40 mph as rain (sleet higher northern locations) spreads in from west. Highs 9-12 C but may be achieved late after quite a cool mid-day 7-9 C.

MONDAY ... Breezy and cool with periods of rain in a steady S-SW wind of about 25-40 mph, morning temperatures rising after midnight when it could be as cold as -2 C, then about 5 C daybreak and 10-12 C mid-day. Rainfalls of about 10 mms on average can be expected.

TUESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, steadily increasing winds from SW veering to WNW by evening and rising to 45-70 mph in western counties with some severe gusts by afternoon and evening. These stronger winds are likely to be confined to coastal regions from about Donegal to Cork, while the rest of the country remains under a slacker gradient and more moderate winds, with low pressure dropping southeast through Ireland (stay tuned for more reliable tracking and timing). Highs 9-12 C, rainfalls about 15-25 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Strong winds moderating but these 20-40 mph NW-N winds then spreading to all regions, staying quite chilly with outbreaks of rain or drizzle, morning lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Windy and rather cool, unsettled through end of week and into the following weekend, and possibly very chilly for late April in the week after that as guidance currently indicates a wintry northeast flow that could be barely milder than 5 C daytime. This may moderate in more reliable forecast time but something to keep watching ... quite a contrast from April 2011 !

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The main story will be a major outbreak of severe thunderstorms with high tornadic risk in Oklahoma and nearby parts of Kansas, Arkansas and Texas. Some rather heavy storms are already firing off but the main action will come during the evening in that time zone (tonight or around midnight to 0600h in Ireland) ... less severe storms will spread much further east during the day and warm, humid air will flood north to reach the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states; ahead of that, warm but not yet humid, temperatures in the low 20s. Showers or periods of rain in most of the prairies and northern plains from the remnants of the Alberta snowstorm which is still dropping some light snow in north-central Alberta today (Calgary had 15-30 cms yesterday). Sunny intervals and mild on the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday started cloudy but became sunny by mid-day and the high was about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 15-04-2012 07:00AM

Sunday, 15 April, 2012
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ALERT for some slippery roads in east-central regions until weak warming removes the frost by about 0830h ... ADVANCE ALERT for strong winds in western counties on Tuesday, gusts to about 65-70 mph possible.

Situation for Tuesday is complicated -- a rather deep Atlantic storm seems likely to move on a track southeast across Ireland from Donegal Bay to Wexford (by Tuesday night) ... this will lead to complicated wind forecasts that I will attempt to give in some detail but as the guidance might change, that detail will be subject to fine-tuning as we get closer to the event.

TODAY ... Sunny at first, increasing high cloud for most and thickening lower cloud by afternoon or evening near west and north coasts ... slight chance of sleet on hills in northwest by late afternoon, otherwise largely dry except for very isolated hail showers in southeast ... highs 7-10 C.

TONIGHT ... Cold for eastern half of country with partly cloudy skies until well after midnight, lows zero to 3 C, but milder in west with strong southerly winds developing, rain by morning, temperatures rising 2 to 6 C.

MONDAY ... Intervals of rain and strong southerly winds 30-50 mph, veering more to southwest 25-45 mph by afternoon and evening, potential for 10-20 mms of rain, highs about 11 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning squally showers and strong westerly winds developing near west coast, backing slightly to southwest, 40-60 mph ... rest of the country variable cloud, some light rain at times, winds SE 15-30 mph ... by afternoon, the strong winds on the west coast becoming more confined to west Munster as an interval of relatively calm winds develops near low pressure centre ... further rainfalls, sleet on some hills, as temperatures stall between 7-9 C (except 10-13 C Kerry). Potential for about 15-25 mms rain. By evening, strong west to northwest winds on outer west coast, and developing moderate northerlies elsewhere with the calm centre now closer to Carlow and Waterford, Wexford.

WEDNESDAY ... After overnight moderate northerlies and drizzle or light rain, the day will become partly to mostly cloudy with bands of showers, some with hail, and moderate northerly winds 20-40 mph, quite chilly, temperatures steady around 7-9 C. Potential for 5-10 mms rain.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, slightly milder, lows 3-5 C and highs in the range 10-12 C. Winds northwest 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND ... Unseasonably cold with northerly winds, sleet possible on hills, snow on summits, but chilly rain or drizzle with some hail mixing in at times for most lower elevations, winds generally moderate northerly, temperatures in a rather narrow range mostly 5-9 C (could stray above or below depending on any clearing skies at night or in daytime).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slow to change although the odd day is bound to be somewhat less chilly and yet there remains a slight risk of wintry precipitation in this pattern too.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Overnight severe storms dying out by morning in the central plains states but redeveloping to less severe levels further east (IL-MO-wKY-wTN-AR-LA), followed by clearing and strong southwest to west winds. Ahead of this strong front, warm and sunny in parts of the eastern states and southern Ontario. Across the northern plains and Canadian prairies, rather chilly in a north to northeast flow directed from high pressure in the central subarctic regions.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a pleasant enough day despite considerable morning cloud, the afternoon cleared as a more stable sea-breeze front came inland. Highs near 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-04-2012 07:43AM

Monday, 16 April, 2012
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ALERT for strong winds on Tuesday with gusts to about 60-65 mph, but latest guidance indicates that these may only reach "alert" strength offshore and across Kerry and nearby parts of Clare, Limerick and Cork.

TODAY ... Intervals of rain and strong southerly winds 30-50 mph, veering more to southwest 25-45 mph by afternoon and evening, potential for 10-20 mms of rain, highs about 11 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, drizzle and fog with southwest winds veering more westerly by morning with partial clearing to follow, winds generally 20-40 mph, a further 5-10 mms rain likely, with lows of 6-8 C.

TUESDAY ... Early morning squally showers and strong westerly winds developing near west coast, backing slightly to southwest, 40-60 mph ... rest of the country variable cloud, some light rain at times, winds SE 15-30 mph ... by afternoon, the strong winds on the west coast becoming more confined to west Munster as an interval of relatively calm winds develops near low pressure centre ... further rainfalls, sleet on some hills, temperatures steady between 7-9 C (except 10-13 C Kerry). Potential for about 15-25 mms rain. By evening, strong west to northwest winds on outer west coast, and developing moderate northerlies elsewhere with the calm centre now closer to the southeast counties.

At this point it appears that the very strong winds generated by the low might stay largely offshore although exposed parts of Kerry would be in line to receive them during the afternoon. This is based on a track from about Mayo southeast to Waterford for the low centre. This could change again at the last minute so an alert should be maintained for all western counties and parts of the south in case the forecast zone of strong winds shifts north and east again.

WEDNESDAY ... After overnight moderate northerlies and drizzle or light rain, the day will become partly to mostly cloudy with bands of showers, some with hail, and moderate northerly winds 20-40 mph, quite chilly, temperatures steady around 7-9 C. Potential for 5-10 mms rain.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, slightly milder, lows 3-5 C and highs in the range 10-12 C. Winds northwest 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY and WEEKEND ... Windy at times, unsettled, cool with frequent showers and temperatures generally in the range of 7-11 C. Another interval of stronger winds likely Monday, then a turn to more northerly winds that could bring slightly colder weather still.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms continue to move gradually east through the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee valleys and the southeast, with the east coast still warm and dry for today -- their turn comes tomorrow, and meanwhile the front will drop temperatures from near 20 C to about 7-10 C before clearing develops in the regions affected. Clearing and chilly in most of the central states and prairie provinces, and cloudy with isolated outbreaks of light rain in the far west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was mostly cloudy and the high was about 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 16-04-2012 10:43PM

UPDATE _ Monday, 10:45 pm
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No significant changes in my outlook yet, have posted some detailed thoughts on regional variations in the storm thread on this forum. I may post a further update around midnight to 1230 a.m. after reviewing the 18z GFS and other late guidance. Much depends on the exact track of the low which appears to be (on model consensus) Mayo to Waterford. If that were to change in either direction then the zone of stronger winds would also shift.

Meanwhile, some squally and blustery showers will gradually spread across the country later tonight with a slight decrease in their intensity likely, as the frontal system generated by the low is pushed east but then begins to stall due to the southeasterly turn of the system.

M.T. Cranium · 16-04-2012 11:51PM

UPDATE _ Monday, 11:55 p.m.
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The 18z GFS run, as well as the 18z RGEM which cuts off west of Ireland but shows the position of the low in similar to GFS guidance at 12h and 24h, have not changed the outlook and so we continue to watch for the strongest winds to hit the southwest on Tuesday afternoon.

Next update at the regular forecast time around 0630h.

M.T. Cranium · 17-04-2012 07:27AM

Tuesday, 17 April, 2012
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ALERT for strong winds this afternoon and evening in Kerry, and nearby parts of Clare, Limerick and Cork ... gusts to 65 mph possible ... elsewhere, moderate winds but risk of squally showers with hail, thunder.

TODAY ... In general, moderate winds and widespread showers becoming squally closer to the west and south coasts, with hail and thunder possible ... winds for most regions moderate southwest backing to southeast later today, but for southwest counties (Kerry and nearby parts of other counties) strong SW to W winds 40-65 mph veering to NW 35-55 mph late afternoon or evening. Rainfall potential 10-20 mms. Highs generally 9-10 C but may reach 12 C in the southwest.

Note that winds may fall off to rather light or even calm as the low pressure centre moves inland in Mayo and Galway mid-afternoon and then slides southeast across central counties into the southeast by this evening.

TONIGHT ... Where strong NW winds hit, expect these to moderate to northerly 20-40 mph by midnight. In other regions, light and variable, or moderate east winds will switch to moderate northeast 15-30 mph. Periods of rain or drizzle will continue with 5-10 mms further accumulation. Lows 4-7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Morning rain or drizzle, then the mid-day will become partly to mostly cloudy with bands of showers, some with hail, and moderate north or northeasterly winds 20-40 mph, quite chilly, temperatures steady around 7-9 C. Potential for 5-10 mms rain.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, slightly milder at least in western counties, lows 3-5 C and highs in the range 9-12 C. Winds northwest 20-40 mph. Rainfalls about 5-10 mms.

FRIDAY ... Mostly cloudy, further showers or periods of rain, cool and breezy, lows 3-5 C and highs 8-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very little change is foreseen in this unsettled and chilly weather pattern with weak or moderate low pressure centres continually swirling around under upper-level lows. While it could become slightly milder at times, the trend will remain below normal.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... East coast will see an end to very warm weather with isolated showers and thunderstorms but some sunshine at times as winds veer SW to NW, highs by afternoon about 16 C (Monday saw 27-32 in many parts) ... Cloudy with outbreaks of light rain or sleety wet snow across much of the Great Lakes and upper Midwest, trending to cool and dry in the northern plains and prairies. Cloudy further west with outbreaks of light rain. Southern parts of the central U.S. already warming ahead of another surge of hot, humid air expected later in the week.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a partly cloudy day with a few light showers in the area, little accumulation, and highs of about 13 C.

M.T. Cranium · 18-04-2012 07:27AM

Wednesday, 18 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Some isolated heavy showers in the southeast this morning, with risk of hail (mainly higher parts of south Dublin and Wicklow), also scattered but less intense showers in west Connacht. The day will begin partly cloudy or even sunny elsewhere but bands of showers, some heavy with hail, could develop in various places later, so a day of radar watching ahead ... winds generally N to NE 15-30 mph with some higher gusts. Highs 9-12 C milder where sunshine lasts longer. Rainfalls about 10-15 mms possible in heavier showers, but many places trace to 3 mms.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, continuing showers or periods of light rain, winds N to NE 15-30 mph, lows 5-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change in an unsettled northeast flow with bands of showers, some sunny breaks, the risk of hail and moderate NE winds. Highs around 10 C. Rainfalls mostly 2-5 mms.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, further showers, winds backing somewhat to NW 20-30 mph which may increase the frequency of showers in Connacht and west Munster while reducing it somewhat in the east. Lows 3-5 C and highs around 8-10 C. Rainfalls generally 3-7 mms.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Unsettled, showery, cool ... lows 2-5 C with risk of isolated frost, highs 9-11 C. Rainfalls over the weekend about 5-10 mms.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Intervals of rain or drizzle and continuing rather chilly with temperatures unlikely to move much higher than 12-14 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A rather quiet and mild pattern in general across most of the U.S. with one area of showers and thunderstorms moving away from the central plains towards the western Great Lakes, highs almost everywhere a bit above normal, 15-20 C northeast states and Ohio valley, to 20-25 C southeast and 25-30 C southern plains where increasingly humid. The Canadian prairies remain a bit on the cool side in a slowly moderating easterly flow of arctic origins, and this slowly becomes more cloudy further west with outbreaks of light rain.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was cloudy with a few periods of light rain or drizzle, and highs about 10-12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 19-04-2012 07:30AM

Thursday, 19 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Continued rather unsettled with showers more likely near east and west coasts than elsewhere this morning, possible repeat of the bands of hail showers mid-day and afternoon although oriented more NNW-SSE today, this may require an update ... rainfalls quite variable with maximum potential about 10-15 mms although many places trace to 3 mms ... some longer sunny intervals central counties (north to south) with highs generally 10-12C and winds N-NE backing to NW 20-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, chilly, a few more showers, lows 2-5 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with brief sunny intervals, showers merging to periods of rain at times, moderate NW 15-30 mph. Highs 10-12 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK remains unsettled with frequent showers and some longer periods of rain, chilly with highs about 10 C Saturday and 12 C Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rain at times on Monday, chilly, highs 9-11 C, then more heavy showers and some hail during the week as once again this new disturbance stalls east of Ireland and places the country in a moderate northerly flow. Temperatures generally below normal especially daytime. Some slight warming may develop late next week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Eastern states cloudy with outbreaks of light rain from a weak frontal system, near normal temperatures. Further west, sunny and warm with thunderstorms moving through the central Great Lakes eastward. Highs in most of the east-central U.S. away from the coastal showers 20-24 C. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing western plains and foothills of Rockies (mainly KS-CO) and seasonably warm. Frequent showers over the west coast in a rather cool, cloudy regime.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy with a few breaks, and some heavy showers with hail were reported around the city. Highs about 11 or 12 C.

M.T. Cranium · 20-04-2012 07:42AM

Friday, 20 April, 2012
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TODAY ... Showers now mainly in western counties will spread further east and intensify, with some hail and thunder. Rainfalls, rather variable, will be anywhere from 5 to 15 mms. Highs 10-12 C, and winds NW 15-30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Showers dying out, some clear intervals developing, rather chilly with local frost, lows -1 to +3 C.

SATURDAY ... Similar to today with a partly cloudy start and showers developing rather gradually through the morning, then becoming widespread and rather heavy later, rainfalls again 5-15 mms, and highs 10-12 C.

SUNDAY ... Following a dry and perhaps frosty start, the day will feature increasing cloud and the onset of rain by evening, lows -1 to +3 C and highs from 8-11 C.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, becoming heavy at times, potential for 30-50 mms in this event (15-30 mms north), lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C, some fog developing as the rain intensifies.

TUESDAY ... Rain tapering to showers but with the possibility of heavy hail showers in the mix, winds becoming moderate northerly, chilly, possible sleet on hills, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... A second storm system moving just south of Ireland mid-week could bring a further heavy rainfall and it could be cold enough to consider some potential for snow especially on hills, in a northeast flow, but eventually this should become more moderate easterly and a slight warming trend could develop, although nothing very dramatic. My view on the theorized "very cold May" is that this may prove somewhat accurate, at least in terms of a cool and wet first half to the month, but I am not sold on the idea of a record-breaking average temperature as there could be warmer spells too.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A warm and dry sector in the eastern states will be gradually eroded by expansion of showers on all sides, but states near Ohio, West Virginia and eastern Kentucky will enjoy another dry day with highs 20-25 C. In the rain, closer to 15-18 C. Somewhat colder air is spreading south again in central regions north of Missouri-Kansas, and a wet frontal system is moving inland in B.C. and Washington state, all with near normal temperatures, but it remains warm to hot and dry in the southwest spreading into Texas and Oklahoma.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was basically a dismal day of low cloud, drizzle and later heavy rain, highs near 11 C. We are being warned about widespread river flooding in a few weeks as the snow pack in B.C. is apparently 10-50 per cent above normal depending on region, the heavier packs are in central regions.

M.T. Cranium · 21-04-2012 07:54AM

Saturday, 21 April, 2012
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ALERT for widespread heavy rainfalls following a showery weekend, in the period Monday to Thursday ... eventually there may be as much as 50-75 mms of rain during the period and this could lead to spot flooding and more definitely a saturation of poorly drained soils especially in the south.

TODAY ... Showers more likely in Ulster and Kerry, west Cork this morning with some longer dry intervals at first elsewhere, some sunshine, followed by more widespread showers with some hail and thunder again. Highs 10-12 C. Rainfalls generally 3-7 mms but could reach 15 mms in heaviest showers.

TONIGHT ... Showers less frequent and more confined to west coast, some clearing intervals, fog or mist patches, chilly. Lows 2-5 C. Isolated ground frost central counties.

SUNDAY ... Following a dry and perhaps frosty start, with the possible exception of showers near the west coast, the day will feature increasing cloud and the onset of rain by evening, lows -1 to +3 C and highs from 8 to 11 C. Rain will become persistent and heavy overnight into Monday.

MONDAY ... Periods of rain, becoming heavy at times, potential for 30-50 mms in this event (15-30 mms north), lows near 6 C and highs near 10 C, some fog developing as the rain intensifies. Risk of spot flooding in some inland southern counties.

TUESDAY ... Rain tapering to showers but with the possibility of heavy hail showers in the mix, winds becoming moderate northerly, chilly, possible sleet on hills, lows 2-5 C and highs 7-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... A second storm system moving just south of Ireland mid-week seems increasingly likely to bring a further heavy rainfall of 25-50 mms on Wednesday lasting well into Thursday, heavier in the south, and it could be cold enough to consider some potential for snow especially on hills, in a northeast flow, but eventually this should become more moderate easterly turning more anticyclonic, and a slight warming trend could develop, although nothing very dramatic. My view on the theorized "very cold May" is that this may prove somewhat accurate, at least in terms of a cool and wet first half to the month, but I am not sold on the idea of a record-breaking average temperature as there could be warmer spells too.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain becoming more widespread through the day in the Great Lakes and northeast, although a few places staying dry around western New England, warmest there as a result. Highs in the rain about 15 C. Further west, seasonable temperatures trending to above normal further west, highs in the Canadian prairies rising above 15 C for the first time in a couple of weeks. Hot and dry in the southwest states, some record highs are likely over the next few days (well into the 30s).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and highs about 13 C.

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