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Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)
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Sunday, 20 May, 2012
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New moon occurs at 2348h GMT which is 0048h Monday in summer time. This new moon provides a rare "annular" total eclipse for a zone extending from eastern Asia across the North Pacific Ocean into the western U.S.A. In the latter case, the eclipse will be centered on northern California, central Nevada, southern Utah, northeast Arizona and north-central New Mexico. It ends at sunset in northwest Texas. With the Moon near its furthest point from the earth (apogee) its apparent size is not quite large enough to cover the full disk of the Sun, so observers in the central path will see a ring of bright sun around the dark moon. Away from the central path, observers will just see a partial eclipse (if clouds permit). Cedar City, Utah would be the preferred destination for anyone hoping for clear skies under the path of totality.
Forecasts:
TODAY ... Many places will remain cloudy but some longer sunny breaks could develop in the south central counties, then later on more hit or miss breaks are likely as this cloud mass is very slowly breaking up in general. A slight chance of drizzle or a brief light shower remains near the coastal margins and inland north. Still rather cool with highs 12-14 C, higher in south central counties.
TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, some clear intervals, lows 4-7 C.
MONDAY ... Cloudy across the southwest and west, some brighter intervals in north and east, southeast. With the cloud, some light rain or drizzle may edge inland at times with 2-5 mms potential in the western third of the country. Moderate southeast winds near the west coast, otherwise rather light and variable (but eastern components) breezes, highs 13-15 C.
TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, some brighter intervals, drizzle at times near coasts, lows near 7 C and highs near 13 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny for most, some areas of more persistent cloud especially where sea fog drifts inland east coast, but turning warmer in stages, highs near 17 C on average mid-week and 20 C later in the week, potential for 22-24 C in western counties as winds will be mainly from an easterly direction.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Staying warm and mostly dry although some risk of intervals of thundery showers.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Tropical storm Alberto, one of the earliest on record, has formed out of that mess that has been mentioned the past few days near the Virginia coast. It will spread cloud and some coastal rain into that region but high pressure will generally prevail and hold off the weak storm for most of the northeast, highs 20-24 C. Warm and increasingly humid further west with showers and thunderstorms in central states. Mostly warm and dry in the far west, but cloud followed by rain in northwest Washington state, coastal B.C. ... the total eclipse (see note above) will be seen along most of its path as cloud will only be of the higher variety in California (inland at least, some coastal fog may interfere) and then mostly clear skies will greet observers in Nevada, Utah and further east.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a near-perfect day with a late increase in high cloud, otherwise sunshine and a high near 20 C. Expecting cloud and periods of rain on Sunday, with little chance of seeing the partial eclipse (it should turn almost dark for a few minutes under the overcast about 5:30 p.m. local time).0 -
Monday, 21 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, hazy sunshine in some parts of central and northern counties ... somewhat warmer but it may feel chilly near the east and south coasts and outer portions of north and west coasts, due to sea breezes locally. Some drizzle at times in west. Highs generally into the 14-17 C range but could be held at 12-14 C near some coastlines.
TONIGHT ... Misty or foggy in places, clear intervals, milder than recent nights with lows 6-10 C.
TUESDAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, risk of drizzle or light rain near some coasts, cooling sea breezes with some fog near shore. Highs 14-18 C but possibly 12-14 C near coasts.
WEDNESDAY to SUNDAY ... The outlook is for warm and mostly dry weather with isolated showers or thunderstorms developing, not affecting very many places but potentially heavy in one or two locations. Highs will be edging up into the low 20s and could reach 24 C in the west especially inland (the flow pattern is light enough that sea breezes could blow in against the prevailing easterly wind). The east coast may see prolonged low cloud or fog in some parts as this warmer air crosses the rather chilly waters of the Irish Sea.
NORTH AMERICAN WEATHER ... Outbreaks of rain in the southeast associated with erratic motion of Alberto ... cloud spreading into coastal northeast from another offshore disturbance, some rain could follow, but continuing warm and dry most places inland. Hot and humid in central plains states with a few showers and thunderstorms in the western Great Lakes from a weakening front. Hot and dry southwest states, highs to 40 C in lower elevations. Rain and only 15-17 C near the west coast and inland into B.C., this rain spreading into parts of Idaho, Montana and Alberta during the day.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was a wet day although fairly warm at about 18 C. The rain was heavy at times mid-day, and it got quite dark around 6 p.m. due to the partial (here) eclipse. Most of Utah and Nevada, northeast Arizona and western New Mexico had a perfect view of the total phases of the annular "ring of fire" eclipse with temperatures near 28 C along the path.0 -
Tuesday, 22 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy, misty and humid with occasional light rain in western counties, some clearing by afternoon, highs 15-17 C. Foggy near south coast with sea breezes and highs 13-15 C. Partly cloudy with cooling sea breezes on east coast, highs 15-18 C (cooler on the coast). Sunny intervals and warm for east-central and inland north, highs 18-20 C.
TONIGHT ... Low cloud, mist or fog, drizzle near west and south coasts. Lows 10-12 C. Otherwise, partly cloudy and mild, some patchy fog, lows 8-10 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Similar conditions to today, except that western counties will likely have just patchy drizzle rather than rain, and otherwise, sunshine may boost temperatures a degree or two, so highs inland may reach 20-22 C. The Dublin coast will likely be around 18 C.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny both days with fog only in a few outer coastal districts from Waterford west and from Mace Head south, quite warm inland, highs for most 21-24 C, about 18-20 C east coast. Nights will be mild and somewhat misty with lows around 10-12 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... This warm, dry weather could continue but we will have to watch developments carefully as heavy rain spreads west from Brittany and could be very close to the south coast by Saturday. There is a risk of more isolated thundery showers developing over central counties. However, it seems like temperatures should continue on the warm side, around 19-22 C (it would likely be about 14-17 C south coast and this could extend further north if the rain spreads in).
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Widespread showers and thunderstorms in the east, although some areas dry, as weak and disorganized frontal systems spread east and interact with offshore lows. Highs 21-24 C. Further west, warm or very warm, increasingly humid towards Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas with isolated thunderstorms, highs 27-32 C. Hot and dry in Arizona, parts of Nevada, Utah and southeast California, New Mexico, southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas, western Oklahoma, west Texas, highs 38-44 C. Cloudy with outbreaks of rain further north across the northwest U.S. and parts of western Canada, some heavy rainfalls likely in Alberta and Montana. Temperatures seasonable, 13-16 C.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday (a holiday) was cloudy with occasional rain and highs near 14 C. While not as heavy as Sunday, the two-day rainfall totals are about 40 mms.0 -
Wednesday, 23 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Hazy sunshine for most, after some morning cloud breaks up, light southeast to south winds, highs 20-23 C ... outer parts of south and west coasts may remain under low cloud and fog, highs 12-14 C. If you live some distance inland from the south coast, expect transitional conditions (cloudy with brighter intervals, highs 16-18 C). East coast may also have some local cooling sea breezes although these will make very little progress inland. Highs may be around 17 C on the shoreline, with some mist.
TONIGHT ... Generally clear with hazy conditions and mild, lows 9-12 C. Some low cloud and drizzle may persist near south coast.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... These two days will also be sunny and warm for most locations, highs 21-24 C, winds ESE 15-25 mph ... the somewhat stronger east winds may result in slightly cooler temperatures than today in eastern counties although it should be generally 16-19 C. South coast may lose some of the low cloud and fog and see 14-17 C in sea breezes.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... There is still some risk of heavy showers brushing past the south coast and isolated thundershowers further inland, but the guidance appears mainly dry and warm, so expect the late week warm spell to continue at about the same pace or just a degree or two cooler (19-23 C) with sea breezes and some low cloud near south coast.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Warm and dry weather appears set to continue well into next week.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Scattered showers and storms will continue in a few parts of the east and more widely in the western Great Lakes and Midwest, but it will be reasonably warm with highs 21-24 C. Hot and dry weather is spreading further into the central plains states from the desert southwest where highs will reach 39-44 C (about 35 C in Kansas, Oklahoma).
Some showers and thunderstorms across parts of the northern plains, western Canada with gradual clearing on the west coast, temperatures mainly around seasonable values 13-16 C.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was partly cloudy with scattered heavy showers, we got one locally around 3 p.m. but then it cleared again later. The highs were around 15 C.0 -
Thursday, 24 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny and very warm in most areas, with slightly cooler temperatures near the east coast in sea breezes, and quite a bit cooler along the south coast with low cloud and fog. Highs generally 22-25 C but 12-14 C south coast and 17-19 C east coast. Winds SE 10-20 mph.
TONIGHT ... Clear with hazy conditions for most, some fog patches or mist, lows 10-13 C. Possible drizzle outer west coast.
FRIDAY ... Mostly sunny again for most, some coastal areas in fog and low cloud, most likely southeast and southwest. Highs generally 23-25 C, but closer to 14 C near some coasts. Winds SE 15-25 mph.
SATURDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals, warm, except for southern coastal areas where cloudy with risk of some light rain. Highs for most around 21-23 but 13-16 C south coast. Winds ESE 15-25 mph.
SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, risk of showers or thunderstorms south, warm with highs near 21 C except 13-16 C south coast.
MONDAY ... Showers or thunderstorms, parts of Ulster and north Leinster may remain dry if rather cloudy, still rather warm at 19-21 C.
OUTLOOK ... A few more warm days likely, then showery and closer to normal near the end of the week.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms in central plains states, some severe storms near Kansas-Missouri border northeast towards Lake Michigan. Hot and humid east of this front, highs 31-34 C. Hot and dry from Oklahoma and Texas west to southern California, rest of California windy with showers developing and turning cooler. This front will push east late Friday into Utah and Arizona, mostly dry but windy weather, but rain with the disturbance will spread across Oregon today and into Idaho and Montana on Friday. Western Canada continuing rather cool and cloudy with frequent showers especially inland over mountains and into Alberta.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a partly cloudy day with brief showers, breezy and rather cool, highs about 15 C.
Temperature contrast ... southwest Kansas 38 C highs, north of Denver about 12 C.0 -
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Friday, 25 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly sunny and very warm in all but a few south coastal regions, highs generally 22-26 C but about 18-20 C near east coast. Freshening southeast winds may actually push the sea breeze inland further during the afternoon. Highs about 12-15 C south coast. Slight risk of a thundershower west-central regions, especially in parts of Cork, Kerry, Limerick. This might be locally but briefly heavy. Winds increasing to ESE 15-30 mph.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog or mist spreading inland near south coast, very mild, lows 10-13 C.
SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy to sunny and warm, although not quite as warm as today, highs generally 19-23 C, but 13-16 C south coast and some distance inland, 16-19 C east coast. Low cloud and drizzle possible around Cork and Waterford, may break up in northern sections giving hazy sunshine there. Winds ESE 15-25 mph.
SUNDAY ... After another mild night with lows 8-11 C, the day will become mainly cloudy with sunny intervals mainly in north-central and northwest, where highs warmest (20-23 C). Elsewhere highs near 18-20 C. Some patchy light rain or drizzle mainly in southwest.
MONDAY ... Intervals of light rain in southwest, cloudy with sunny intervals elsewhere, lows 8-10 C and highs 18-21 C.
TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, except near south coast in low cloud, highs generally 19-22 C.
OUTLOOK ... It should stay reasonably warm mid-week towards next weekend despite the fact that parts of Britain will be cooling off in a weak northerly flow ... high pressure close to Ireland should preserve a remnant of the warm spell in the 17-19 C range, with nights closer to 7 C. Showers may also try to push in from the southwest or west and could reach parts of the west coast later in the week.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot and humid eastern half of the country with showers and a few thunderstorms becoming somewhat less intense than Thursday's outbreak as they cross the Great Lakes, highs generally 24-28 C. Hot and dry across the southwest, Texas, Oklahoma into southern Utah, Colorado and Kansas. Highs 34-37 C except 38-42 C near Phoenix. Isolated thunderstorms developing in Nevada and central California spreading towards Salt Lake City and southern Idaho. Rain or thunderstorms across the central Rockies into the north-central plains states. Chilly under high pressure in central Canada, some wet snow along a secondary cold front this morning before clearing in eastern SK and western MB. Sunny and near normal temperatures west coast.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was sunny with cloudy intervals, and breezy, with a high about 16 C, quite pleasant in the sun, chilly in the shade.0 -
Saturday, 26 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy south but sunny and very warm again today for most, highs generally 19-24 C, but 13-17 C south coast and some distance inland, 17-21 C east coast. Low cloud and drizzle possible around coastal sections of south coast, should break up inland 5-10 kms giving hazy sunshine there and reasonably warm as close to the sea as Cork. Winds ESE 15-25 mph. Slight risk of an isolated thunderstorm west-central this afternoon, very low chance for any given location.
TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... After another mild and clear to partly cloudy night with lows 8-11 C, the day will become mainly cloudy with sunny intervals continuing mainly in north-central and northwest, where highs warmest (20-23 C). Elsewhere highs near 18-20 C. Some patchy light rain or drizzle mainly in southwest.
MONDAY ... Intervals of light rain in southwest, cloudy with sunny intervals elsewhere, lows 8-10 C and highs 18-21 C.
TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, warm, except near south coast in low cloud and morning drizzle, highs generally 19-22 C.
WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... Another warm, dry spell although closer to normal values with highs about 18-22 C, more of a south or SSW flow setting up sea breezes and low cloud on south and west coast this time, although probably light SE sea breezes near Dublin as well. Warm anywhere 10-20 kms inland.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Pattern will be slow to change.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers and thunderstorms developing in various parts of the central U.S., some severe, but generally hot and humid as far north as Chicago and across the lower Great Lakes, inland northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, highs generally 25-30 C. Isolated heavy storms in Florida, hot and humid otherwise. Hot and dry south central to New Mexico, breezy and turning cooler in Utah, western Colorado, Arizona, and California, thunderstorms in eastern Colorado and Wyoming. Some areas of rain further north towards border, but generally dry and seasoably warm in western Canada.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a pleasantly warm sunny day with highs near 22 C.0 -
Sunday, 27 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Warm and sunny to partly cloudy conditions will continue for most, but more cloud will appear in the south where highs only 13-16 C, building up to some light rain by afternoon or evening, 2-5 mms potential mainly south of Limerick to Waterford. Otherwise, moderate east winds, highs 17-20 C east to 20-24 C central and west.
TONIGHT ... Cloud may spread a bit further north with drizzle or light rain continuing but clear and mild further north, lows generally 8-10 C.
MONDAY ... Cloudy at first in some southern districts, with gradual clearing away from the coast, partly cloudy to sunny and warm further north, highs near 22 C for most, 14-17 C south.
TUESDAY ... Fair skies and warm for most, lows 7-10 C and highs 17-22 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud, showers and a few thunderstorms, lows around 10 C and highs near 21 C.
THURSDAY ... A clearing trend with the showers dying out, somewhat cooler especially in Ulster and Leinster, lows near 8 C and highs between 16 and 21, warmer in the south now.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models give us two choices, either a return to warm and settled weather, or a slow cooling trend due to retrogression (westward drift) of the dominant ridge. This second solution may turn out to be right, but it will take a few days to establish the trend.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... A few showers and thunderstorms in central states, hot and humid from there east except for some areas of the Carolinas, eastern Georgia and northeast Florida where increasing northeast winds from "Beryl" are likely with rain to follow as the storm moves west-south-west towards Jacksonville FL. Northern plains and southern prairie provinces of Canada will see a chilly rain mixed with snow in some higher locations, northeast winds, and temperatures well below normal. Warm and dry near the west coast with increasing cloud. The chill in the southwest should fade back to sunshine and warmer temperatures today as the storm system pulls cloud away into Montana and Wyoming. At one point on Saturday it was snowing at valley level locations in central Nevada and almost cold enough for snow in Salt Lake City UT.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was sunny and quite warm with a high around 23 C.0 -
Monday, 28 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly cloudy and warm for most, although cooling sea breezes will make inroads near east and south coasts, and some low cloud or fog could drift a few kilometres inland. There may also be isolated and possibly quite brief showers in just a few locations. Winds SE 15-25 mph. Highs 21-24 C inland and towards west coast, 13-16 C south coast, 15-18 C east coast.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, but becoming misty or foggy, lows 9-12 C.
TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy and warm, more isolated showers possible, some of these heavy in parts of the southwest. Highs 20-23 C except near south coast 14-17 C and east coast 17-20 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and a few thunderstorms developing, highs generally around 20 C.
THURSDAY ... Some morning showers then clearing, somewhat cooler in the north especially where northeast winds may push cooler air inland, highs in the north about 14-17 C and in the south 17-20 C.
FRIDAY-WEEKEND ... With any luck the ridge will hold and the weather will be reasonably warm and dry, but there is some chance that a more north to northeast flow pattern will overcome the ridge at least partially (Ulster-Leinster) so the compromise forecast at the moment would be partly cloudy, some isolated drizzle near east coasts, highs 16-19 C. Could be as warm as the lower 20s in parts of inland south and west.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Very warm to hot, humid in parts of the east especially inland as some coastal locations will see low cloud and sea fog, but inland highs 32-35 C in places. Isolated storms, becoming more of a line squall situation west of Chicago with severe storms in the Midwest. Effects of strong tropical storm Beryl will continue in north Florida, most of Georgia, and South Carolina with wind and heavy rain (22-25 C). A slightly cooler and drier air mass is replacing the heat over the central plains states and a few more storms are possible there. Increasing cloud over the northwest U.S. with rain to follow, but warm and dry in the southwest.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday started out rather cloudy with a chilly sea breeze (SSE 20-30 mph) but this changed to sunny and warm in the afternoon with highs near 20 C, followed by increasing high cloud in the evening. Expecting showers by morning.0 -
Tuesday, 29 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Hazy sunshine in most regions, but cloudy for most of the day in the southwest, with a few showers developing there. Warm in the sunshine with highs 21-23 C (17-19 C near east coast) in southeast breezes. Highs about 16-19 C in southwest.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, mild, isolated showers but some steadier light rain developing in southwest. Lows 8-11 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and a few thunderstorms developing, highs 17-21 C.
THURSDAY ... Morning showers, a clearing trend by mid-day and afternoon, somewhat cooler for Ulster with highs there 16-19 C, otherwise remaining rather warm (21-23 C).
FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy in most regions, warm, highs near 21 C. Ulster somewhat cooler again in light north to northeast winds (15-18 C).
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... The warm, settled weather should continue in the south and west, but it may become a bit cooler in Leinster and remain somewhat cooler in Ulster, especially near coasts. Highs in the range of 19 to 23 C south and west, 15 to 18 C north and east. Slight chance of showers mainly near west coast.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Sunny and hot in some of the larger cities of the northeast with heavy storms developing inland and in parts of the Great Lakes regions. These storms will likely reach the coast tonight. Highs into the lower 30s there. Remnants of Beryl inland southeast, moving slowly north with sporadic outbreaks of thundery rain. Another developing slow-moving storm in Texas will bring heavy rainfalls south and east of Dallas, and it will turn somewhat cooler in the plains states with mainly cloudy skies. Chilly in the northern plains and eastern prairies, trending warmer towards the Rockies. Showers on the west coast.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was cloudy and rather cool with occasional light showers, highs around 15 C.0 -
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Wednesday, 30 May, 2012
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Have you ever wondered if they just announced bank holidays at the very last minute, perhaps the atmosphere wouldn't have time to get all the clouds and showers together? ... seems to happen here as well.
TODAY ... Showers, heavy at times, moving slowly north into Ulster this morning, then likely dying out mid-day or early afternoon across northern half of Ulster, but risk of a few isolated showers developing further south in a mainly dry and partly cloudy air mass, warming up again once the cloud begins to break up, except in the northern regions ... highs generally 21-23 C but a little cooler near south and west coasts in a light south to southwest wind ... highs 14-17 C, and 10-15 mms rain in parts of Ulster.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, some rain moving into southwest just before morning, lows 9-12 C.
THURSDAY ... Outbreaks of rain in some areas, mainly southern and northern coastal regions, some areas dry in between, highs 18-21 C. Potential for about 10-15 mms rain in some places, more likely about 2-5 mms central.
FRIDAY ... A drying trend once again with some warm sunshine in parts of the south, cloudy and cool in parts of Ulster as a front sets up roughly Donegal Bay to Drogheda, but not much rain with this, local drizzle in east Ulster ... highs 14-18 C north and 19-23 C south, cooler in sea breezes.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... It won't be as nice as recently but Saturday may be fairly pleasant for most, and Sunday could hold on to some pockets of dry weather, as rain begins to spread into the southwest and then further towards central counties on Sunday. Monday is likely to be showery in most places, but rainfall amounts all weekend will probably be moderate, about 10 to 20 mms. Highs each day about 18 C except 12-15 C in parts of Ulster. It may reach 20 or 21 C in a few locations on Saturday if enough sun gets through and even on Sunday it could be as warm as 21 C in a few spots.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Further showers and turning considerably cooler in the northeast (where it hit 32 C on Tuesday), highs 20-23 C. Variable cloud mid-Atlantic states with showers advancing from remnants of Beryl now located to southwest in Georgia and South Carolina, some heavy rains with this, highs 22-25 C. Very warm and humid in the south central states with outbreaks of very heavy rain in Oklahoma and north Texas, some local flooding especially tonight when 100-200 mms rain may develop in eastern Oklahoma. Near normal temperatures further north, highs 22-24 C. Showery near the west coast but turning to a steady rain later.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was mostly cloudy with light rain in the morning, a few breaks in the overcast by late afternoon, highs near 17 C.0 -
Thursday, 31 May, 2012
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TODAY ... Overcast with light rain becoming more confined to north, where highs will be held down to about 16-17 C. The rain will be slowly tapering off to drizzle with 3-7 mms likely (trace to 3 mms south). Fog or mist will linger on some hills and near shore, but it should brighten up during the afternoon in the south with limited sunshine, warm with highs 19-22 C. Winds rather light from southwest to west. High humidity levels.
TONIGHT ... Fog or mist, sporadic light rain mainly in northern counties, and lows 10-12 C.
FRIDAY ... A few lingering showers or drizzle in the north, partly cloudy and warm, humid south ... highs 16-18 C north to 20-22 C south. Cooler near some coastlines with sea fog near shore.
SATURDAY ... Variable cloud with some decent sunny intervals especially central and eastern counties, lows 7-10 C and highs 19-22 C. Rain spreading into parts of the west and south by evening.
SUNDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain, although some dry intervals, a touch cooler in the south and central counties, noticeably cooler in Ulster and parts of Connacht. Lows 6-8 C and highs generally 17-20 C but 13-17 C north.
MONDAY ... Rain becoming showery during the morning then variable cloud with some brighter intervals, isolated showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 17 C south, 13 C north.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The week of 5-8 June should be near normal in temperature with showery southwest to west flow, trending to somewhat warmer with more chance of sunshine towards the weekend although some risk of thunderstorms. The current outlook for Ireland's opening game in western Poland in the Euro 2012 tournament is warm and dry with slight risk of showers, daytime highs near 24 C and evening temperatures near 16 C.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain all day in parts of Oklahoma, northeast Texas, Arkansas spreading east and southeast, highs 22-25 C, rainfalls to 200 mms in places could cause flooding. Severe storms a bit further south in eastern Texas. Warm and dry from this storm zone west to the Pacific, highs near 30 C in Texas but 34-40 C in the desert southwest. Rain across the northwest states into parts of the northern plains states, chilly, then drying out further north. Partly cloudy and near average for late May in most of the eastern states except for some rain near the Carolina coast from departing Beryl.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy with rain at times both morning and evening, but a dry afternoon, highs near 17 C. Rain is currently rather light and we have probably had less than 5 mms.0 -
Friday, 1st of June, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy with some sunny intervals, isolated showers ... rather humid and warm inland, highs 18-22 C, but could stay cooler near some outer coasts.
TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, some mist or fog, mild, lows 9-12 C.
SATURDAY ... Hazy sunshine in east and north, increasing cloud with rain arriving in south and west about mid-day to afternoon and spreading to other regions gradually, 10-20 mms likely by midnight but for many, it will remain dry until late afternoon (early morning tee times favoured) ... highs 18-21 C but near 14-16 C in the rain as winds become raw from ESE 20-30 mph.
SATURDAY NIGHT and SUNDAY ... Rain may be heavy at times overnight and Sunday morning, especially Galway to Dublin and parts of inland southeast, potential for 20-40 mm totals including the day's earlier rain ... not as wet in east Ulster but some rain at times there. Lows near 10-12 C and highs about 14-16 C for the north and east, to 17-20 C south and southwest where skies could try to clear later afternoon.
MONDAY ... Partly cloudy and fresh with westerly winds developing and scattered showers, some of which could be locally heavy in Connacht and west Munster. Lows 10-12 C and highs 17-19 C.
TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, highs near 20 C.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Wet again with 20-40 mms rain possible, highs near 17 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I suspect this wet spell may taper off to more average sorts of frontal Atlantic type weather then a warm, dry spell seems likely second half of June.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers becoming widespread in the east, warm but not hot (23-26 C) trending to chilly in the Midwest (11-15 C) in northerly winds. Scattered showers in the south central states where the heat has finally been pushed back to the south, highs 23-26 C except near 32 in south Texas. Hot and dry in parts of the southwest but showery or even rainy further north and across the border regions towards western Great Lakes.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy and rather humid with highs near 17 C. Some light rain at times but no need for an umbrella sort of drizzly rain that we have about 359 days a year (just kidding, it is lovely here for two weeks in August).0 -
Saturday, 2 June, 2012
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ALERT for locally heavy rainfalls of 30-50 mms next two days, most likely in the central and southeast counties, between Galway and the Wicklow Mountains for a general zone of heavier falls ... as little as 10-20 mms in parts of Ulster mainly tonight ... potential for spot flooding especially around Tipps, north Waterford, Laois and Carlow, Kilkenny, Kildare, and parts of Dublin and Wicklow, Wexford.
TODAY ... Hazy sunshine in north and east to start, increasing cloud, highs around 16-19 C. Overcast with rain in southwest, becoming cloudy in west and south with rain starting mid-morning, then reaching east coast by afternoon. Winds becoming E-SE 15-30 mph, some heavy bursts of rain in Munster giving 15-25 mms. Highest temperatures around 15-16 C but feeling rather raw due to the wind.
TONIGHT and SUNDAY ... Rain continuing, heavy at times in the counties mentioned in the alert with some thunder, further rainfalls of 20-40 mms, although 10-20 mms a more likely total in Ulster. Lows overnight around 12 C with fog prevalent. Gradual drying and partial clearance later Sunday in west Munster and by late afternoon and evening elsewhere as rain fragments and pulls away to southeast. Highs 14-17 C, higher in Kerry and inland Cork than elsewhere.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, lows 8-10 C and highs 13-17 C.
TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, rain spreading into some parts of west and south by late in the day, lows 7-9 C and highs 16-18 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... More rain, possibly heavy at times, with 20-40 mms potential. Highs around 15 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled for a few more days at least, with a better chance for dry weather in the second half of June.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain or showers in eastern Canada and some parts of the northeast U.S., turning much cooler than recent days with highs only 15-18 C. Scattered storms again in south central states and warm but not overly hot, highs 27-30 C. Variable cloud further north, turning warmer in a westerly flow, rain spreading across parts of western Canada towards central prairies, highs 22-25 C south but turning cooler further north. West coast unsettled and rather chilly, highs 14-16 C.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was partly cloudy with a few isolated showers and highs near 16 C.0 -
UPDATE _ Sat 2 June 2012 _ 8:15 p.m.
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The alert for heavy rainfall is maintained with indications of 30-50 mm totals spreading from Cork towards the region outlined in the alert in previous post, with variations due mainly to topography. Rainfall amounts are likely to be heaviest on eastern sides of higher terrain and somewhat lower due to rainshadow effects to the west of higher terrain. But these will be local variations within the overall range of 20-60 mm so most should see 30-50 in the southeast. There will probably be a steady drift to east-north-east of the heavier rainfall amounts until about 0300h then a pivoting followed by a drift east-south-east before the event tapers off mid-day Sunday. There are two waves of low pressure forming, one south of Waterford and another west of Valentia. This second feature will track east and intensify overnight, becoming the main focus for the rainfall as it tracks across Cork, Waterford and Wexford. Rainfall predictions for certain locations (including what has already fallen) include:
Cork 35 mms
Limerick/Shannon 20 mms
Galway 15 mms
Waterford 30 mms
Thurles 40 mms
Carlow 45 mms
Kilkenny 50 mms
Athlone 25 mms
Casement 30 mms
(co.) Dublin 15-25 mms
(co.) Wexford 35-45 mms
(co.) Wicklow 20-40 mms
The highest amounts near 60 mms could fall in higher parts of Laois and Kilkenny, Tipps, and locally in hilly parts of co. Waterford.
The regions north of a line from Donegal Bay to Drogheda will probably see less than 10 mms.0 -
Sunday, 3 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Rain should begin to ease off during the late morning in the central and eastern counties, with 10-15 mms more from 0800h to early afternoon, and a slight cooling trend as winds become NE 15-25 mph. Temperatures will be about 12-13 C under cloud but as some breaks develop from north to south and also across the southwest, some places will then see highs during the afternoon of 16-18 C. The southeast and south coast may stay under low cloud and highs of 13-15 C.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, low cloud near south coast, drizzle near some outer coasts, but mainly dry with lows 5-8 C inland, 8-11 C coastal and urban. Winds becoming light except near east coast NNE 10-15 mph.
MONDAY ... Some sunny intervals for central and eastern counties, with light showers in a north to northeast breeze near 10-15 mph, these mainly along the east coast or over hilly parts of the north. Cloudier in the far west with rain spreading back in late afternoon. Highs generally 15-18 C.
TUESDAY ... Periods of rain or showers, some brighter intervals, about 10-15 mms of rain and temperatures steady 12-15 C but possibly rising a bit where cloud breaks mid-day, to about 17 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, scattered showers heavy in some places, and rather warm and humid, lows 7-9 C and highs 17-19 C.
THURSDAY ... Rain may become heavy again especially in the west and this time it may spread across Mayo and Donegal while near its peak with 20-40 mms potentially ... 10-20 mms more generally, and temperatures between a morning low of 12 C and an afternoon high of 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Becoming breezy or windy (SW-W 30-40 mph) with squally showers in some parts, sunny intervals between lines of showers and highs about 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... Continuing about the same, unsettled with showers almost daily and only brief intervals of dry weather, but continuing to see potential for much improved conditions second half of June.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Warm and dry southeast, somewhat cooler western Great Lakes but dry if cloudy, as a large weather system pulls away to northeast with strong winds and showers across the eastern Great Lakes, northeast U.S. and Canadian Maritimes, Quebec. Some local rainfalls to 50 or 75 mms. Showers and thunderstorms in some parts of the south-central plains states, a few severe, hot and humid in Texas, cool and dry to the north but warm and dry further west into the Great Basin and desert southwest states. Rain moving across B.C., Washington into Alberta, Montana and Idaho. Some embedded thunderstorms with that.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a very unsettled day with scattered thundershowers around 2 p.m., a raggedy funnel cloud was spotted (no real rotation or surface wind gusts) followed a few minutes later by torrential rain and melting hail. That was followed by some breaks in the overcast which allowed a view of the slowly departing cloud tops over the mountains northeast of here. Highs were about 17 C and rather humid with that.0 -
Monday, 4 June, 2012
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Astronomy note: Full moon in partial eclipse at 1213 IST, meaning it will be visible in the Pacific regions where skies are clear. As that is 0413 local time for me, I will likely give it a pass especially since skies are mainly cloudy.
TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, one or two light showers near east coast fading away, then cloud advancing from the southwest, with rain to follow by evening there. Highs 15-17 C.
TONIGHT ... Misty with periods of rain, humid and mild with lows 11-13 C.
TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and some brighter intervals, fog near some coasts and highs 16-18 C. Total rainfalls about 10-15 mms.
WEDNESDAY ... Mostly cloudy with showers or periods of rain developing, 5-10 mms on average, mild and humid with lows near 11 C and highs near 16 C.
THURSDAY ... Periods of rain may become heavy across west and south, fog or mist developing on hills, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. Potential for 20-40 mms rain.
FRIDAY ... Rain tapering to showers then some clearing, winds becoming moderate westerly about 20-40 mph, lows 7-9 C and highs 14-16 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Slight improvements appear possible as a partly cloudy, somewhat unsettled pattern continues but with some breaks in the cloud at times and near normal temperatures.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Widespread heavy storms developing across the south from Oklahoma east to Alabama. Rather cool to the north, with lingering rain in New England and eastern Canada, dry from there west to about the foothills of the Rockies, then extensive rain and thunderstorms over the Rockies and Pacific northwest regions. Warm and dry to hot and dry in the southwest.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was cloudy with a few breaks late in the day, dry for the most part, and cool with highs near 15 C.
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Tuesday, 5 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Showers or periods of rain moving northeast, followed by some brighter intervals before another line of showers and a few thunderstorms, moving into the west mid-day and across most of the north and central counties this afternoon into the evening. Further rainfalls of about 10 mms on average, somewhat less near south coast, potentially 20 mms in a few parts of Connacht and Ulster. Highs 16-18 C.
TONIGHT ... Showers ending, clearing but extensive ground fog and some low cloud developing later, sunrise conditions (for Venus transit observers) likely to be hit or miss, would suggest a higher location because of the ground fog. Lows 6-10 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Increasing cloud after some morning sun, more showers and thundershowers developing, rather warm and humid with highs 17-19 C.
THURSDAY ... Periods of rain may become heavy at times, moderate SE winds of 20-40 mph may ease as low centre approaches, with 20-40 mms rain quite possible. Lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.
FRIDAY ... Further rain, tapering off to showers, as winds become moderate westerly, lows near 8 C and highs near 15 C, further rainfalls about 10-15 mms. After this two-day total (could approach 50 mms) some spot flooding possible again.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Cloudy, a few brighter intervals, occasional showers, highs each day about 17 or 18 C. About the same pattern for western Poland, possibly a degree or two warmer there, but becoming showery around Sunday evening.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The northeast states and Great Lakes will see improving weather as a showery system pulls further away into Labrador and Newfoundland, quite chilly across eastern Canada behind this front, trending to about 20-23 C in the western Great Lakes and 27-32 C in the plains states and southern prairies. Extensive heavy rain and thunderstorms from Alberta and eastern B.C., southeast throughout the Rockies into Colorado and spreading into parts of New Mexico and Texas. Some of this rain could cause severe flooding in connection with snow melt from the Rockies. A second disturbance will pile into this storm along the coast.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy and quite cool at only 14 C on Monday. Drizzle has just begun in advance of heavier rain expected soon.0 -
Wednesday, 6 June, 2012
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls in the south and central counties on Thursday and Friday, up to 50 mms in some places, with a brief interval of strong winds early Thursday.
TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, with a few brighter intervals. Outbreaks of rain spreading north with amounts of 5-10 mms, isolated thunder (east Ulster heavier rain this morning). Feeling rather muggy with high humidity and maximum temperatures of 15-17 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy, periods of rain spreading into the south around midnight with rapidly increasing E-SE winds reaching 30-50 mph on the south coast around dawn. Lows 8-10 C. Rainfalls of about 10-20 mms in the south by morning, other places smaller amounts, foggy in places further north.
THURSDAY ... Windy during the morning (SE 30-50 mph backing further north to NE 20-40 mph), periods of heavy rain with spot flooding possible especially in west, central Munster and parts of south Leinster. Rainfalls during the day about 20-30 mms continuing into the overnight period to reach 30-50 mms south to 15-30 mms north. Not as windy by evening as the low centre tracks up the east coast into the Irish Sea, although stronger NE-N winds may continue in western Mayo and Donegal.
FRIDAY ... Morning heavy rain should taper off to showers by mid-day. Winds backing further to WNW 20-40 mph (30-50 mph west Munster) ... cool with a further 10-20 mms of rain, morning lows near 10 C and highs 12-15 C.
SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy with more isolated showers, breezy from the west backing southwest, an interval of showery rain by evening. Lows near 8 and highs near 17 C.
SUNDAY ... Breezy, cool, showers heavier in the morning, lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C. No change in Poznan football outlook from yesterday (cloudy, 20 C with showers arriving).
MONDAY ... Cloudy with sunny breaks, isolated showers, highs near 16 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models are continuing to suggest (rather vaguely) that the unsettled pattern could ease during the mid-month period.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rains across parts of eastern Canada and the Rockies, with some flooding developing in eastern B.C. and foothills of Alberta, Montana. In between, a rather cloudy but largely dry air mass with a slight easterly component to the winds, isolated showers in many parts of the Great Lakes, largely dry across the eastern prairies and northern plains warming to about 30 C in the central plains. Frequent showers and thunderstorms in southern Oklahoma, northeast Texas and parts of the Gulf coast region. Also wet on the west coast. Hot and dry southwest states.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was fully overcast and there was no chance to see the Venus transit this evening but only a few light showers fell from this overcast, with highs near 15 C. Heavier rain is spreading in now.0 -
UPDATE _ Wed 6 June 2012 _ 9 p.m.
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Forecast remains on track, would recommend the storm thread for a detailed discussion. These are my estimates for total rainfalls from this two-day event:
75-100 mms possible in a few parts of west and central Munster, inland southeast as well as parts of Wicklow, and central (south/west Leinster) into Connacht, these amounts mainly where northeast winds encounter uplift from local hills, streams rising in these regions could overflow downstream.
50-75 mms likely in many parts of Munster and Leinster, and nearby parts of Connacht.
25-50 mms likely in coastal Connacht and most of Ulster, as well as a few locations that are located west or southwest of hills elsewhere.
One slight amendment to the forecast issued this morning would concern wind speeds on Friday which could be more like 35 mph gusting to 65 mph in exposed parts of the west and south as the storm draws in strong westerly winds.
Forecast as usual around 0630, I'm sure the storm thread will have all the details on the approach of the storm tonight.0 -
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Thursday, 7 June, 2012
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ALERT for widespread heavy rainfalls 50-100 mms, some flooding especially central counties, possible mudslides in hilly terrain (Kerry most at risk), and strong winds before and then after the passage of low pressure. Details in forecasts. Watch for updates and visit this forum's ongoing storm discussion thread for continuous coverage.
TODAY ... Windy with periods of rain becoming heavy at times, strongest winds likely this morning near southeast coast and up the east coast, as well as through central counties especially where exposed to northeast wind flow, 30-50 mph at times ... rainfalls 20-40 mms during the day, likely heaviest in an arc from east Kerry through Limerick, Galway and east towards Dublin, some less intense rainfall later in southeast as low pressure centre approaches, meanwhile wind and rain picking up afternoon and evening in Ulster and Connacht. Highs about 14 C.
TONIGHT ... Rain continuing, heavy at times especially west-central, as winds back to NNE 20-40 mph there, with amounts of 15-30 mms overnight generally in western counties and parts of Ulster ... intermittent light to moderate rain in parts of east and southeast, amounts 10-20 mms, with lows 9-11 C. Flooding or standing water on roads may become widespread so drive with caution especially in rural areas.
FRIDAY ... Windy with further rain (5-10 mms south coast to 20-30 mms central and north), quite heavy in Ulster and north Connacht, easing off further south, followed by a few intervals of brighter weather there, as winds back to WNW 35-55 mph (gusts to 65 mph possible near west coast). Highs only 12-14 C and feeling very cold in the strong wind.
Note that total rainfalls over a two-day period will average 50-75 mms and could hit 100 mms in some places.
SATURDAY ... Showers tapering to drizzle during the early morning as winds continue strong westerly 30-50 mph, clear intervals south, morning lows about 7 or 8 C, then a partly cloudy day with some drying and only isolated showers for most, highs 16-18 C.
SUNDAY ... Early morning rain again, possibly heavy in parts of the south, followed by breezy, cooler weather with scattered showers, lows near 9 C and highs near 15 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, a few showers, highs near 16 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The rest of next week appears rather unsettled although not quite as grim as this week, then the following week could see a much improved pattern as models are pointing to much warmer weather. So it's a case of getting through this storm and hopefully conditions will slowly improve later in the month.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... There is little movement of weather systems so this may sound like a re-run ... widespread rain in western Canada and the northwest U.S., some local flooding underway. Warm with isolated storms in the central states and eastern prairies of Canada. Unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms with hail in the Great Lakes region in a disturbed northeast flow. Most of the eastern U.S. in rather bland near-normal type weather.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... This was a slightly better day with breaks in the persistent overcast and highs near 17 C, rain spreading in this evening and expected to continue tomorrow. Rather cold aloft with snow on mountain highway passes today (according to the reports, I stayed down here).0 -
Friday, 8 June, 2012
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ALERT for some continued heavy rainfalls although now the emphasis is more on flooding that has developed from earlier rains, moderate to severe in a few parts of the inland southwest, central and southeast counties ... a further 20-30 mms rain possible in some of these areas today ... also strong westerly winds in all exposed areas.
TODAY ... Overcast with further rain, becoming showery in the south and southwest and ending there mid-afternoon, continuing elsewhere although rather light east of the Wicklow and Dublin mountains ... heavier amounts possible inland southeast, central and Connacht into Ulster, 20-30 mms ... winds WNW 30-50 mph but with some gusts to 65 mph near west coast ... highs only 12-14 C, feeling very raw in the wind. Ongoing risk of flooding with larger rivers slower to reach flood stage, consider source of rivers and streams, as well as local rainfall. Some field overflow and mudslides in hilly terrain.
TONIGHT ... The north will remain rather breezy and cool with showery rain until past midnight ... clearing across the south ... winds WNW 20-40 mph decreasing from southwest to northeast ... lows 7-9 C.
SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals will be good for some drying, isolated showers but most places dry, highs near 18 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, some morning showers or periods of light rain but rainfalls generally 3-7 mms, lows near 10 C and highs near 16 C.
MONDAY ... Showers, highs near 16 C.
TUESDAY ... Sunny intervals, highs near 17 C.
WED-THURS ... Possible rain, too early to say whether amounts significant, but some potential so stay tuned.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain has spread into British Columbia again, and will reach Alberta and some parts of the northwest U.S. later, cool with highs 13-17 C. Showers and thunderstorms in many other parts of the prairies and plains states, increasingly warm and humid south of South Dakota with highs 30-33 C. Eastern states and Great Lakes, eastern Canada still rather unsettled with showers, sub-normal temperatures and some heavy rains in coastal regions of eastern Canada.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was overcast with frequent light rain, but only about 10 mms in total.0 -
Saturday, 9 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Any lingering drizzle should clear away northeast this morning, and the cloud will break up slowly in Ulster but more rapidly elsewhere as sunny intervals prevail. Winds westerly 20-40 mph in some northern regions at first, but otherwise light to moderate west backing to south, mist or fog banks over some outer coasts. Highs 17-19 C.
TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, misty or becoming foggy, lows 7-9 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud for most, intervals of light rain across the south, highs 14-16 C. Rainfalls 3-5 mms at most.
MONDAY ... Showers developing during the day, rather cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 16 C.
TUESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers developing mid-day and afternoon, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.
OUTLOOK ... Several more days of partly cloudy, slightly unsettled weather with chance of a steadier rain developing late in the week, temperatures near normal for mid-June. The following week promises somewhat warmer weather and perhaps more sunshine than the coming week.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing across the prairies and northern plains states, but very warm and humid further south and east, some of this finally spreading into the northeast U.S. during the weekend, although staying cool and wet in parts of eastern Canada and northern New England.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a pleasant day with some sunny intervals, and highs near 17 C.0 -
Sunday, 10 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunshine will be more prevalent in north-central counties and even there it may fade behind advancing cloud, but most coastal regions are likely to stay cloudy with occasional showers developing, not very heavy with amounts just 2-5 mms. Highs 16-17 C in the sunny north-central counties, and closer to 14 C around coastal regions. Light winds.
TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, fog or mist patches, a few drizzly showers, and lows near 8 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers developing and becoming heavy in a few places, amounts generally 3-7 mms ... highs near 16 C.
TUESDAY ... Bright intervals to start then increasing cloud, showers, some heavy, slight risk of thunder, lows 7-10 C and highs 15-17 C.
WEDNESDAY ... Possibly more dry intervals and scattered sunny intervals, isolated showers. Lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Models are suggesting a rainfall event of about half the strength of the one last week on the same days, but there is probably some chance of this fizzling out and missing to the south, so I would say about a 70% chance of rain at this point, and 10-25 mms the most likely range.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... I don't really have great confidence in model output beyond four days at present, the sort of featureless vacuum over the North Atlantic on most charts probably represents uncertainty more than a real outcome, and the trend has been for months to turn warmer towards mid-month so as this may be connected with the lunar cycle I will hold out some hope of an improving weather picture and improving forecasts to go with it, beyond next weekend, which seems likely to be unsettled and not all that warm at 15-16 C.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers and thunderstorms will cross the northern plains region and reach the westernj Great Lakes by evening. Mostly dry and hot in central regions, but humid with heavy showers and storms in the southeast. Near normal in the northeast, cloudy with showers over most of western Canada.
FORECAST FOR EURO 2012 (Poznan) ... Cloudy, warm although not oppressive, humid, showers in the vicinity if not during the game, temperatures about 19-20 C. Ireland to do well (in the Boards forecast contest the average of 43 forecasts was a 1-1 tie; I said 3-3 which may indicate a five-hour game ahead).
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was cloudy with sunny intervals and about 16 C. We are already in that featureless vacuum that the models say will show up over the North Atlantic. 0 -
Monday, 11 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Some sunny intervals in the north, but cloud increasing there, and otherwise overcast most places with rain at times, 3-7 mms likely on average, highs 15-17 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy, some brief clear intervals, isolated showers continuing, lows 7-9 C.
TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, winds becoming a little stronger in western counties (NNW 20-35 mph), showers developing and becoming heavy at times, risk of thunder ... 5-15 mms rain likely ... highs near 16 C south and 13 to 15 C elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, showers developing, highs near 15 C after morning lows 4-7 C.
THURSDAY ... Cloudy, rain may arrive in southwest during the day, potential for about 10-20 mms at least, highs 14-16 C.
FRIDAY ... Rain or showers, highs near 15 C.
WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Slight improvements but staying rather cloudy and temperatures around 16-18 C.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot and humid eastern half of the U.S. and parts of eastern Canada although still wet and chilly in Maritimes, highs in the larger cities of the northeast U.S. and Great Lakes near 32 C. Heavy showers and thunderstorms in parts of the Midwest and southeast states. Hot and dry in most of Texas and southwest, showery further north, periods of rain into Alberta with some heavy amounts.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday, IIRC, was cloudy and cool with a high near 15 C.0 -
Tuesday, 12 June, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for another rain and wind event Thursday into Friday, not quite a certainty yet as this system has not really formed up yet, but models are keen to bring a repeat of last week's event, perhaps not quite that intense but at about a 75% concentration ... but this may be the last in a series, we hope.
TODAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, but also some heavy showers developing into thunderstorms with some locally heavy downpours giving 10 to 20 mms ... highs around 15-17 C. Winds increasing in western counties to NNW 15-30 mph, more variable further east.
TONIGHT ... Mist or fog patches once the showers die out, lows 6-9 C but possibly a bit cooler in a few inland valleys.
WEDNESDAY ... Breezy with intervals of cloud and sunshine, still a few showers and perhaps some heavier thundershowers in central counties. Highs 15-17 C.
THURSDAY ... Becoming windy with rain developing, potential for 15-30 mms and winds SE 20-40 mph, some higher gusts by evening.
FRIDAY ... Windy with rain at times, 15-30 mms further in south central counties, risk of local flooding there, probably closer to 10-20 mms for most northern counties, chilly for time of year with winds ENE backing to N 20-40 mph and some higher gusts.
SATURDAY ... Cloudy with showers but less windy and highs near 15 C.
SUNDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers. Highs near 16 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are some optimistic signs of higher pressure developing in the next week to ten days and I don't expect the entire summer to be as dire as this first half of June, in fact it may reverse to something much better ... I think many have concluded that there cannot be good summer weather in "this climate" but I can't see any real basis for that because all other seasons seem capable of producing settled spells of warm weather in "this climate" so ... stands to reason that summer might as well.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mostly light showers in some eastern regions may include a few heavier thunderstorms later. Remnants of very heavy rainfalls in the southeast are merging with this system and there is a risk of an offshore tropical storm later this week. Meanwhile, another region of showers in east Texas but rather dry and hot from west Texas to California, and seasonably warm further north with just a few outbreaks of scattered showers over the Rockies.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday turned a little warmer with a few sunny breaks in the persistent overcast. Highs near 20 C.0 -
Wednesday, 13 June, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT continued for heavy rain and strong winds developing Thursday and persisting through Friday into early Saturday. Heaviest rains south-central counties, 50-75 mms total, otherwise 25-50 mms.
TODAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, widespread showers this morning in Ulster and north Leinster tending to fragment but a more extensive area then developing over central counties, with one or two becoming thundery and more intense (5-15 mms on average). Highs 14-17 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks, light showers in some areas, lows about 8-10 C.
THURSDAY ... Cloudy to start although perhaps a few sunny breaks in the north. Rain spreading into the south with winds steadily increasing there to reach SE 30-50 mph by late in the day. Further north, winds E-NE at 15-30 mph at first, rising to 25-45 mph later. Rainfalls to midnight likely to reach about 20 mms south, 10 mms central and 5 mms north. Highest temperatures around 15 C north, 11-13 C south, feeling raw there in the stronger winds.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY ... Rain continuing, windy (ESE to ENE 30-50 mph) and some local flooding, rainfalls 20-40 mms heaviest inland south. Temperatures steady 11-13 C.
SATURDAY ... Early morning wind and rain should ease before mid-day then a few breaks in decreasing northerly winds, showers becoming more isolated, highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 15 C.
OUTLOOK ... Next week should see improvements, perhaps even some dry days in some regions, and highs reaching the 18-20 C range. Whether this improvement can be sustained into a longer dry and warm spell remains to be seen, conflicting signals on that.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Showers moving through eastern regions, not very heavy in most cases, followed by a cool, sunny high over the Great Lakes and Ohio valley, highs around 18 C. A stronger front will develop in the southerly flow around that high to bring heavy showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf coast north to the Midwest and upper Great Lakes by evening. Very warm and dry further west although showery north of Oregon to Montana, some heavy rains developing in the B.C. Rockies and into Alberta.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, misty or foggy at times on Tuesday, rather muggy with drizzle and a high of about 18 C.0 -
Thursday, 14 June, 2012
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ALERT continued for heavy rain and strong winds, generally 30-60 mms of rain next two days and winds gusting to 55-60 mph in exposed coastal and upland locations, 35-50 mph in more sheltered locations.
THURSDAY ... Cloudy to start although perhaps a few brief sunny breaks in the north. Rain spreading into the south with winds steadily increasing there to reach SE 35-60 mph by late in the day. Further north, winds E-NE at 15-30 mph at first, rising to 25-45 mph later. Rainfalls to midnight likely to reach about 20 mms south, 10 mms central and 5 mms north. Highest temperatures around 15 C north, 11-13 C south, feeling raw there in the stronger winds.
Comments: The storm will be elongated and rainfall may break into a pattern of strong and weak bands, so final results will be highly dependent on luck of the draw but the peak rainfall amounts should be roughly Wicklow to south Laois to inland Cork-Kerry. Wind gusts will also tend to come and go in waves as a system like this often forms a number of separate energy centres.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY ... Rain continuing, windy (ESE to ENE 30-50 mph) and some local flooding, further rainfalls 20-40 mms heaviest inland south. Temperatures steady 11-13 C but rising to near 15 C in southeast late Friday, as milder air seeps in, with fog over hills in south.
SATURDAY ... Early morning wind and rain should ease before mid-day then a few breaks in decreasing northerly winds, starting out 25-45 mph then easing to 15-30 mph later, showers becoming more isolated, highs near 14 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs 15-17 C.
MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, highs 15-17 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some chances of an improvement later in the week, with some warmer days with some sunshine, then becoming breezy with showers around late Sunday 24th into the first part of the following week. The overall "look" of the model run is towards warmer and more settled weather as higher pressure builds from the west. Warm or even hot weather could develop out of this extended range forecast scenario, so I would be hesitant to write off the summer yet, after all, it's only weather folk who think that summer starts on the first of June, most of the world says 21st and there is probably a good reason for that. I commented on another forum using the U.K. "CET" daily data that the warmest three months of the year (equivalent length) run from 13 June to 12 September. That's closer to the astronomical than the meteorological definition of summer.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Dry and pleasant in the northeast and Great Lakes as high pressure stalls over northeast Ontario and western Quebec. Temperatures a little below average but with the strong June sunshine warm enough at about 21-24 C. Heavy storms in a slow-moving frontal zone Minnesota to Kansas. Heavy rains in the southeast U.S. also. Showers and periods of rain in western Canada, but warm and dry further south.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was cloudy but pleasantly mild with a high near 18 C.0 -
Friday, 15 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Rain becoming more showery, even a few bright intervals developing in southern counties then later into central counties, but no organized clearance, a lapse back into showers always a threat, and eventually one or two becoming heavy and thundery. Rainfalls quite variable as a result, 10-25 mms on average, higher values most likely to be recorded in the Galway to Laois region. As a general comment, the storm is slowly dying and only the daily energy cycle will be working towards intensification, otherwise the rain bands would be progressively dying out. Highs today about 13 to 15 C for most, 15 to 17 C where skies brighten mid-day. Winds SE to ENE 20-40 mph but veering more to SSE 15-30 mph later in the day across the southeast, rising to SW 30-50 mph briefly near outer coasts of Cork and Kerry in the last stages of the low's trek inland.
TONIGHT ... Rain bands continuing to plod erratically north dying out as they go, 5-10 mms of rain in most places, winds SE 15-30 mph and extensive fog or mist developing, mild. Lows 10-12 C.
SATURDAY ... Rain may intensify briefly in the morning for eastern counties in the backwash around the low, then western counties may begin to dry out and brighten to partly cloudy skies by afternoon, winds briefly gusty NNW 20-40 mph then more moderate later, rainfall amounts 3-7 mms. Highs 14-16 C.
SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, one or two thundery showers with hail possible, but also some longer dry intervals developing in parts of south, lows about 7 C and highs about 16 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, 3-5 mms rain, highs near 16 C.
OUTLOOK ... From Tuesday onward, the week may improve significantly, although a chance of showers should be maintained in the far west and northwest, due to offshore frontal systems, however, weak ridges of high pressure further east may bring sunny intervals, dry weather and temperatures of about 18-20 C, possibly even into the low 20s.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy showers and storms moving slowly east across the mid-section of the U.S. from Lake Michigan to Arkansas, turning a bit cooler further west, but remaining hot and humid in the south and parts of the southeast with scattered thunderstorms advancing there also. Warm and dry under high pressure for the Great Lakes and northeast states, improving rapidly for parts of eastern Canada with fronts pulling away.
Western Canada showery and rather bland weather, a few outbreaks of heavier rain here and there but nothing too severe.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was another featureless cloudy day with a few bright moments and a few drops of rain. The high was about 18 C.0 -
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Saturday, 16 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Morning showers or longer periods of light rain over eastern counties, early drizzle ending further west as clouds begin to break, then rather windy mid-day (NNW 20-40 mph), total rainfalls now to mid-afternoon about 5-10 mms east, and highest temperatures 14-16 C.
TONIGHT ... Cloudy with some clear intervals, chilly with lows 5-8 C.
SUNDAY ... Morning sunshine fading behind increasing cloud, isolated showers developing, highs 15-17 C.
MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.
TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY ... Some sunshine likely, isolated showers each day and a bit warmer at about 17-19 C.
THURSDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, highs near 16 C.
FRIDAY ... Showers, highs 15-17 C.
FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some chance of a warmer interval developing around the weekend of 23-24 June, but at the moment I feel that the model runs are struggling with weak signals and the best guidance may actually be the earlier research-based statistical forecast that showed warmer weather in late June.
NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Northeast U.S. and Great Lakes staying sunny and warm as fronts weaken each time they pass Lake Michigan; the latest in that series heading slowly east across the plains states with some heavy downpours from Chicago to St Louis to northeast Texas. A few severe storms in the Kansas-Nebraska region, warm and dry further west, but wet with near-normal temps in B.C. and Alberta.
MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was sunny to start, then cloudy by afternoon, and a bit warmer at 19 C.0
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