Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 17 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and sun, just a few light and rather brief showers at first, then some heavier showers by afternoon with about 20-30% coverage and 5-10 mms where these develop ... highs 14-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with showers ending, some clear intervals later with fog or mist patches, lows 6-9 C.

MONDAY to WEDNESDAY ... Each day about the same, cloudy with a few sunny intervals, near normal or slightly below normal temperatures with highs 15-18 C, and scattered showers with mainly light accumulations of 2-5 mms, locally 5-10 mms.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Another late week rainfall perhaps not as strong as the previous one (at least they are getting weaker each time) with potential for 15-30 mms and wind gusts to about 35 mph, highs 14-16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slightly improved again by the weekend with perhaps an equal mix of sun and cloud, isolated showers, highs 18-20 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... It remains warm and dry in the northeast U.S. and Great Lakes except for western Lake Superior. The upper Midwest, northern plains states and prairie provinces of Canada will see an outbreak of severe storms that will peak around the SD-MN border this evening, some may become tornadic there. Hot and humid further south, highs well into the 30s and possibly around 40 C in parts of Kansas and western OK, northwest TX. Hot and dry further west.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday's weather can only be described as pathetic with steady rain giving about 20 mms, fog and a rather chilly high of 16 C. If you're watching the golf taking place about 1,000 kms south of my location, you'll have noted how chilly it is for that latitude with the sea fog drifting in at times. We get that same kind of weather around Victoria and the southern portions of the city here, but our fog here now is more of the warm advection variety.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 18 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Sunny intervals at first in central and eastern counties, with a band of showers working east rather slowly and tending to evolve into periods of light rain, 3-5 mms on average ... highs 13-16 C with the warmer readings likely in the east.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy at first with clear intervals developing, mist or fog patches, lows 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers giving 2-4 mms on average, highs 15-18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Slightly warmer with some sunshine for most, as winds turn more to southeast, lows around 7 C and highs 17-19 C.

THURSDAY ... Early morning rain developing then lasting much of the day in easterly winds, 15-30 mms potential, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, breezy from west to northwest, lows near 11 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures and some sunshine each day, isolated showers. Highs 16-19 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy thunderstorms lasting most of the night will continue to drift east from Minnesota and some new ones may develop further west along a frontal zone separating rather cool Pacific air over the northern plains (22-25 C) from hot, humid air over the central plains where highs could reach 40 C. The northeast will see a few showers or storms also, but also some sunny intervals.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was cloudy with a few isolated showers and a high near 17 C, so about the same weather here as there.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 19 June, 2012
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TODAY ... In the west, mostly cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers giving 2-4 mms on average, highs 15-18 C. Further east, mostly sunny at first, then intervals of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers possible, highs 16-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, lows 5-8 C, fog patches developing.

WEDNESDAY ... Slightly warmer with some sunshine for most, as winds turn more to southeast at 10-20 mph, and highs 17-19 C. Isolated showers possible later in the day south coast and a few other parts.

THURSDAY ... Early morning rain developing then lasting much of the day in easterly winds, 15-30 mms potential, lows near 10 C and highs near 14 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, breezy from west to northwest, lows near 11 C and highs near 15 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Near normal temperatures and some sunshine each day, isolated showers with a longer interval of steady rain possible near south coast Saturday night. Highs 16-19 C.

FOLLOWING WEEK ... The pattern is not very "set" as model runs keep chopping and changing, thus the best bet is to expect near normal temperatures and slightly unsettled conditions.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Another day of heavy showers and storms in the upper Midwest, northern plains states and parts of central Canada, with very hot weather further south giving highs of 38-42 C in the central plains states. Variable cloud and near normal west coast, also rather bland for the northeast U.S. with dying fronts and mixed cloud and sun.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was sunny for a while during the morning then mostly cloudy with scattered showers developing later. Highs 16-18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 20 June, 2012
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The new moon slipped past un-noted on Tuesday at 4:03 p.m. IST.

TODAY ... An east-west divide with low cloud, mist and drizzly rain at times in western counties, possibly improving at times this afternoon, 2-5 mms rain and highs 13-16 C. Eastern counties will enjoy somewhat brighter weather in general and may remain dry until late afternoon before rain moves in from the south. Highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain, becoming heavy at times, 10-20 mms on average, and fog developing, lows near 10 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of rain becoming more confined to western counties in an east to southeast wind reaching 25-40 mph at times in exposed areas, some hill fog and certainly not very summer-like at 13-15 C at maximum. Rainfalls of 5-15 mms ... heaviest inland west Munster.

FRIDAY ... Showers, winds becoming variable early morning then westerly and increasing to 20-40 mph, lows near 11 C and highs near 15 C. Rainfalls of about 5 mms in most areas, potential for 10 mms Connacht-Ulster.

SATURDAY ... Showers becoming isolated, some brighter intervals developing with less windy conditions, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, showers confined to north, lows near 8 C and highs 16-18 C (warmest central to inland southeast).

MONDAY ... According to the earlier models, sunny intervals, warmer, highs near 20 C ... but "doctor no" (ECM) says cloudy with showers, 17 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... That divergence of opinion seems to extend into the week, any guesses as to which outlook will prevail. Thought so.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot, humid weather will finally reach the east coast as the marine layer is pushed back offshore by westerly winds, so now highs well into the 30s will extend from Kansas to New York with very high humidity levels in the Midwest where some dew points may reach 28 C. Heavy showers and thunderstorms will extend from South Dakota to central Ontario into northern New England. Hot and dry in the southwest, improving partly cloudy weather on the west coast. Tropical Storm Chris is well off the Nova Scotia coast edging northeast and should die out after a few days of minimal tropical storm winds of 45 knots.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was overcast with some clear breaks visible off to the south and west this afternoon, light winds, a bit warmer at 18 C.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 21 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Periods of rain becoming more confined to north and especially Connacht, west Ulster as somewhat brighter conditions spread slowly north into Munster. Winds continuing moderate ESE 20-40 mph in north, becoming variable further south. Slight risk of a thunderstorm in this zone during the mid-day and afternoon hours. Further rainfalls 10-20 mms north, 2-5 mms south. Highs 13-15 C in general, could touch 16 C inland southeast.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming more drizzly in north, 5-15 mms further mainly in Ulster, overcast with light showers elsewhere in a developing westerly flow reaching 20-40 mph in exposed areas by morning, lows 9-11 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, windy (WNW 25-45 mph) and cool with highs 13-15 C.

SATURDAY ... Some morning sunshine, increasing cloud, heavy showers or periods of rain developing, some thunder likely late in the day, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 or 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers clearing, sunny intervals later, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer again, highs 18-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, highs 18-21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Another showery second half of the week is taking shape, must be the work schedule of the rain gods.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Very hot and humid in eastern U.S. and lower Great Lakes with highs again 35-40 C ... showers and a few thunderstorms edging southeast in states between Missouri and Michigan, and into central Ontario-Quebec. Somewhat cooler and fresh to the northwest of this front, highs 22-25 C, trending back to 30s in Rocky Mountain foothills and 35-45 C southwest U.S. where excessive heat warnings in place for Phoenix, Las Vegas and parts of southeast California.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... For a change, we enjoyed sunshine all day and the high was 21 C. This may continue today before the mandatory weekend rains arrive.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 22 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Overcast at first, with breaks developing across the south, showing up later in central counties, north likely to remain cloudy ... showers, a few heavy at times in the north, further rainfalls there of 5-10 mms, and becoming windy (WNW 25-45 mph) and cool with highs 13-15 C.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with clear intervals, rather cool with lows 5-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Some morning sunshine, increasing cloud, heavy showers or periods of rain developing, some thunder likely late in the day, lows near 7 C and highs near 15 or 16 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers clearing, sunny intervals later, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C. Winds freshening to westerly 20-30 mph.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer again, highs 18-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm, highs 18-21 C. Possible showers in west by afternoon spreading country-wide by evening.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... Showers, highs around 17 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heat wave ending late today in the northeast states, with scattered thunderstorms, after another high well into the 30s today. This fresher air mass is already in the Great Lakes region where it will be about 25-27 C with lower humidity. A few scattered storms in the Midwest along a weak front. Widespread rain or showers in the southeast ahead of a developing tropical storm near the Yucatan Channel. Hot and dry from Texas west to California, and showery further north, some intense storms likely along a front coming inland in B.C. and Washington state (I may be storm chasing at this rate).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was another sunny and quite warm day with increasing high cloud, highs around 25 C. Friday's forecast is scattered thunderstorms. I may be posting pictures if they're not rain-shrouded.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 23 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, some brighter intervals central and north this morning, showers advancing across the south, with heavier rain likely this afternoon, amounts by this evening around 5-10 mms for most, 10-20 mms possible southwest. Rather humid and highs 15-18 C.

TONIGHT ... Further moderate rain showers with 10-20 mms, generally clearing well after midnight in the southwest. Less rain is likely in the north and some places could remain almost dry. Lows 8-11 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers heaviest in the southeast, gradual clearing elsewhere, some sunny intervals developing. Rainfalls 3-7 mms southeast, isolated showers giving trace amounts most other regions. Highs 16-19 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny with considerable high cloud, sea fog likely near south coast, warm with lows near 10 C and highs 18-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, humid, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle developing especially south coast and northwest coastal regions, lows near 12 C and highs 17-22 C (warmest inland east).

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, showers, highs near 18 C.

OUTLOOK ... Showery with near normal temperatures, highs 18-20 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heavy rain developing around the Gulf coast, and a few storms in the Great Lakes region, otherwise most of the eastern and central states will be warm and dry, trending to severe heat in the Kansas-Colorado region. Rain also moving inland over the west coast towards Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was cloudy with periods of rain and a few rumbles of thunder mid-day, trending to heavy rain inland. Much of the province is on flood alert with the Fraser near a 40-year high and some inundations but large sections of the valley are protected behind levees.
The temperature was falling most of the day from 18 to 14 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 24 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy to start the day with sunny intervals becoming more frequent mid-day and afternoon, except where low cloud drifts inland near west coast ... a few light showers will dissipate later this morning in most cases, trace to 2 mm amounts possible ... winds WNW 15-30 mph, but rather warm despite that, with highs 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, fog patches, drizzle at times near west coast, lows 7-10 C (mildest west).

MONDAY ... Hazy sunshine in most regions, low cloud or drizzle near some outer coasts south and west, warm(ish) with highs 18-22 C.

TUESDAY ... Some bright intervals but more cloud, some fog or drizzle drifting well inland south and west, warm and quite humid with lows 10-12 C and highs 18-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, warm, showers developing, chance of a thunderstorm south central to east inland, lows 11-13 C and highs 18-21 C.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, showers and gusty SW winds developing 20-40 mph, rainfalls about 10-15 mms and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, showers (5-10 mms rain), highs near 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continuing breezy and unsettled with highs 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some signs of improvement with swelling high pressure on GFS model around days 10-15, although location (to west) not ideal for hot weather, it could at least turn more settled and reasonably warm if that verifies.

EURO 2012 today ... For Italy v England in Kiev, very warm and partly cloudy but slight risk of a brief thunderstorm late today. Game prediction 1-1 pk etc.
Severe storms appear possible in southern Ukraine.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot almost coast to coast but especially around Colorado, Kansas where it hit 43 C on Saturday and may repeat today. Gulf coast bracing for Debby (50 mph TS at present) moving rather unpredictably and slowly north, could swerve either way or just keep drifting towards New Orleans ... landfall not likely until Tuesday to Wednesday night ... scattered storms in Great Lakes and New England, and heavy storms developing across parts of inland western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday featured mostly cloudy skies, a few showers especially heavy this evening, isolated storms which missed my location, and highs near 17 C. Sunday looks unsettled also. So, you're not alone in this unsettled pattern (actually the weather looks a bit better there than here next 2-3 days).

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 25 June, 2012
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Temperatures may drift above normal values for several days. Remain calm and take no further action.

TODAY ... Mild to warm with hazy sunshine at times in most northern and eastern counties, low cloud or drizzle near some outer coasts south and west, trending to broken low cloud further inland, highs 18-22 C. Rainfalls generally slight in south and west, trace to 2 mms.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, fog or mist, very mild with lows 11-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Some bright intervals but more cloud, some fog or drizzle drifting well inland south and west, warm and quite humid with highs 18-22 C. There will be an interval of light rain moving generally north and this may be followed by warm sunshine inland southeast. Rainfalls about 2-4 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, warm, showers developing, chance of a thunderstorm south central to east inland, and later in the day across Ulster, lows 11-13 C and highs 18-22 C. Rainfalls generally about 5-10 mms.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy, showers and gusty SW winds developing 20-40 mph, rainfalls about 10-15 mms, lows near 12 C and highs near 17-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (WSW-WNW 25-45 mph), showers (5-10 mms rain), highs near 16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continuing breezy and unsettled with highs 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some model runs are now showing quite a warm pattern developing in early July although somewhat unsettled especially in the north, could see highs of 22-25 C at times from the maps, now we need to see this trend stronger as we get closer to this weekend's unsettled period.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The severe heat in Colorado and Kansas as well as nearby parts of surrounding states (44 C at one location in Kansas on Sunday) has created a major forest fire outbreak in central Colorado, forcing evacuation of thousands of people near Colorado Springs. Meanwhile, heavy rains in east/central B.C. caused severe flash flooding and mudflows (not really slides, small creeks turned into half-mile-wide rivers of mud) ... and these patterns are fairly stationary although the rain is spreading more into Alberta overnight. Meanwhile, T.S. Debby brought heavy rains and local tornado damage to Florida, and the storm continues to swirl in the northeast Gulf with little change in position expected for two days. The heat in the central states is being cut off across the Great Lakes and northeast U.S. by a southward-drifting cold front with showers, but Washington DC will stay quite hot, and moisture from Debby is trying to force its way northeast against the backwash of the cold front further north.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday turned out fairly sunny and around 20 C with showers well off to our east and clear skies over the nearby Pacific in a dry slot situation developing in a large but slow-moving Pacific low off to our west.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 26 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Scattered showers and brief thundery outbreaks north central this morning, otherwise some bright intervals east, south central but more cloud, some fog or drizzle drifting well inland south and west, warm and quite humid with highs 18-22 C. Later, there will be an interval of light rain moving generally north and this may be followed by warm sunshine inland southeast late afternoon and evening. Rainfalls today about 2-4 mms with some places staying largely dry although misty.

TONIGHT ... Quite warm and close with lows 11-14 C, a few showers mainly across the north with thunder at times.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, warm, showers developing, chance of a thunderstorm south central to east inland, and later in the day across Ulster, and highs 18-22 C. Rainfalls generally about 5-10 mms.

THURSDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers and gusty SW winds developing 20-40 mph, rainfalls about 10-15 mms, lows near 12 C and highs near 17-19 C.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy (WSW-WNW 25-45 mph), showers (5-10 mms rain), highs near 16 C. Some longer thundery bursts of rain likely across the north.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Continuing breezy and unsettled with highs 16-18 C. There could be some sunshine each day between showers, and one longer interval of rain towards Saturday evening and early overnight into Sunday morning.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Model runs are quite optimistic ... are you? ... past about Monday 2nd July, the trend is towards warm and dry weather with potential for highs of 22-25 C at times (27-30 C in Britain, 32-35 C in France, 38-42 C in Spain, I could go on).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Speaking of heat, 44 C (111 F) in parts of Kansas and Colorado on Monday for the third or fourth consecutive day -- close to records set in 1911 (a notable heat wave summer in July-August in both the northeast U.S. and western Europe). This heat, which will continue today, is less intense east of Kansas City but still well into the 30s as far east as Virginia. Cooler weather will prevail today in the northeast states and the Great Lakes with scattered showers, but a warming trend will follow. Heavy storms developing in Alberta and Saskatchewan, isolated storms in northern plains states overnight and Tuesday. Improving over the Rockies and increasing cloud from the next front coming inland on the west coast.

T.S. Debby has moved closer to the northwest Florida coast but won't come inland until tonight, although very heavy rains continue in northern Florida. A secondary tropical disturbance is forming off the east coast of Florida and this could take over Debby's energy supply before the storm itself moves across Florida. Heavy rains are spreading up the Carolina coast but won't make it very far inland as Debby appears headed for Cape Hatteras and then towards Cape Cod later this week and weekend.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a very pleasant sunny day (naturally) with a high near 21 C. Increasing higher cloud by this evening.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 27 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Warm and humid with occasional light rain and also a few brighter intervals, misty but sun could burn through at times inland ... highs 18-22 C cooler in west and near south coast. There may be one or two places that stay dry but most will see 3-5 mms of rain at some point.

TONIGHT ... Very mild and humid, lows 12-15 C, some thundery rain could develop across south towards early morning hours.

THURSDAY ... Not quite as warm, very humid still, and outbreaks of heavy rain with some thunder, even a bit of hail in some cases, winds not very strong but could become gusty from south to southwest near more intense cells, highs 17-19 C. Rainfalls rather variable but heavier cells could easily drop 20-30 mms in 1-3 hours leading to local flooding. In this pattern, Laois, Kildare, Meath and east Ulster may be most at risk although the heavier showers will likely be hit or miss in many regions.

FRIDAY ... Breezy and a touch cooler again, fresher in a SW flow 20-35 mph, showers and a few brief thunderstorms possible, rainfalls 5-15 mms, morning lows of 10-13 C and afternoon highs of 15-17 C.

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy (across most of north, some gusts to 45-50 mph likely, elsewhere, 35-40 mph, from WSW veering NW). Occasional showers and some hail or thunder possible. Brief sunny intervals too. Morning lows 8-10 C and afternoon highs 14-16 C.

SUNDAY ... Morning showers, breezy or windy, then partial clearance by mid-day with showers more isolated and confined to north, lows 7-9 C and highs about 16-18 C. Could turn quite settled in the southwest by afternoon.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals, warmer, highs 19-22 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The early July pattern looks seasonable and not very far from average in daily temperatures, not overly wet compared to recent weeks.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe heat continues today from Colorado to Illinois and a more modified heat is spreading into the inland southeast while clouds from Debby offshore and coastal rain keep temperatures down near the Atlantic shores as far north as Chesapeake Bay. The northeast states will turn a bit warmer today and get into a modified heat wave by Thursday. Strong lines of thunderstorms are rumbling east across the Canadian prairies and isolated storms can be expected in the Dakotas but severe heat will limit these south of about central South Dakota. Highs in the central plains states 39-44 C are setting daily records in many places. Severe forest fires rage out of control in Colorado adding a lot of smoke to the hot, dry air mass over northeast Colorado and this smoke haze is spreading northeast although becoming more of an elevated haze as it goes. Showery in western Canada and hot/dry in the southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was mostly cloudy but dry and reasonably warm at 18-20 C.

Hill City KS and McCook NE were both 115 F (46 C) on Tuesday . :eek:

M.T. Cranium

ALERT for heavy rainfalls 30-50 mms overnight in parts of Munster spreading to south Leinster especially east Kerry, Cork, Limerick, Waterford, Tipps, Laois, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford with some torrential downpours, thunder and lightning at times, leading to local flooding risk by midnight to 0300h in Cork and Limerick and possibly a bit later further east. Forum discussions will update further as I am heading out here shortly for most of this period (it being a sunny day here eight hours behind your time zone).

This rainfall will spread into the rest of Leinster and east Ulster through the day and somewhat less intense cells may sweep northeast across regions further west, but this is already more or less covered in the existing morning forecast.

M.T. Cranium

Updated alert issued 0530h Thursday 28 June 2012 ...

Torrential rainfall will soon spread north into Ulster from a Sligo to Longford to Meath position at present ... expect thundery at times torrential rainfalls and intense lightning, with 30-50 mms likely, severe local flooding in small valleys as minor rivers and streams may easily overflow. Oddly enough I am currently reading a book about some Canadian's trek around Ulster on a trail system that basically follows the outer parts of the "six counties" and he also encountered torrential rainfalls in his journey. But my alert is for all the counties of Ulster as well as whatever parts of Connacht and Leinster are not already well into the event (for people further south this event is almost over now and we'll assess potential for further rainfalls later today in the forecast segment to be posted later).

There is also a very intense thunderstorm cluster over the Irish Sea east of south Wicklow at present drifting north. Although the worst of this should stay out to sea, you may be aware of the frequent lightning in that direction and eventually less active cells may develop along the Wicklow then Dublin coasts moving north, so there is some potential for torrential rains in Wicklow and Dublin although it looks to me as if the system has split due to orographic effects and this may largely prevent heavy rainfalls in some parts of the capital region.

Amounts of 30-60 mms have already fallen further south from about Cork north-northeast towards Athlone, and on either side of that line generally diminishing amounts into the 15-30 mm range, although some locally intense lightning in Waterford also.

The main forecast will follow shortly, I have not seen much to prompt any larger changes than these more detailed alerts.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 28 June, 2012
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ALERT updated for torrential thunderstorm rainfalls in Ulster and north Connacht, north Leinster from now (0600h) to mid-day, gradually ending from the south, and producing a further 30-60 mms of rain in these counties with risk of severe flooding especially for smaller streams that can accumulate these rains faster and overflow. Life-threatening flooding could develop in a few locations, be especially aware of this in steep-sided valleys in hilly areas. Mudflows could develop on slopes above highways leading to disruptions. Intense lightning has been a feature of this meso-scale system all night and may continue. A separate area of severe storm activity is moving north offshore from Wicklow and Dublin and outer portions of that may brush the east coast, or more severe activity could result, but readers in Down (Bangor, Belfast in particular) and Antrim should be alert for this system sweeping in around 0900h-1100h merging with the main area. Readers in the Isle of Man should be alert also to severe storm development this morning.

Forecasts continue about as before, with these added details above.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with locally heavy or torrential rain in the north, hail and severe lightning for some in Ulster, and 30-60 mms rain. These very heavy rains should gradually end this morning in central counties and have already largely ended in the south, but a few more isolated showers or heavier thunderstorms could develop later especially in Kerry, Clare, Galway and Mayo. Some clearing may develop and winds will be moderate SE veering to SSW 20-35 mph by afternoon. The Ulster heavy rain should move slowly north and be largely off to the north by afternoon but the north coast could continue to see downpours. Highs today 17-21 C. Fog over some hills.

TONIGHT ... Further showers, mild and humid, 5-15 mms rain potential, and lows only 12-15 C.

FRIDAY ... Becoming somewhat less humid with intervals of cloud and sun, passing showers, some of these becoming heavy with thunder and hail. Winds southwest 20-40 mph, and highs 15-18 C. Intervals of heavy rain by evening and overnight into Saturday morning.

SATURDAY ... Becoming windy rather early in the day for most, mid-day in north and east Ulster, as low pressure slowly pulls away. The north will remain in low overcast, scudding clouds with drizzle or light rain, while further south there could be occasional sharp showers with hail, but also some brighter intervals. The south coast may be closer to partly cloudy with just isolated showers. Winds generally will increase to WSW 30-50 mph veering to NW 35-55 mph, and it will feel cold, with morning lows 7-10 C and afternoon highs 13-16 C (it may stay 12-13 C all day in the north).

SUNDAY ... A rather cool start, then pleasant sunny intervals, lows around 5 to 8 C and highs 17-20 C.

MONDAY ... Increasing cloud, warm. Showers in west by afternoon. Highs around 21 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled, nothing too major on the current maps (but there is this Thursday factor to consider, I think every Thursday this past month has turned out extremely wet). Highs during first week to ten days of July in the normal 17-21 C range, but some indications of much warmer weather developing mid-month.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The severe heat continues to move east although it will stay 37-42 C in the central plains, trending down to 25-30 C in the northern plains and 20-25 C in the Canadian prairies in strong westerly winds. Meanwhile, very hot by this afternoon in the lower Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee valley regions, highs 35-40 C in many places, trending to about 33-37 C on the east coast (they get the full blast of severe heat on Friday and the weekend). Quite a bit cooler than this in the upper Great Lakes where the surface air mass will remain under an inversion of this hot air invasion, so 23-27 C at most. Turning a bit warmer for Alberta and inland BC while the coast sees slowly increasing cloud. Hot and dry southwest states. Debby basically fell apart after crossing Florida and is trying to regroup northeast of the Bahamas, eventually remnants will head northeast to Newfoundland.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a very nice sunny day with highs around 22 C.

Check the ongoing storm thread for more updates and details, I will also post updates if developments are different from what's already in the alert and forecast. Would advise extreme caution if travelling today in southwest from after-effects of locally torrential rains, same in some central counties, and especially in the north due to the ongoing torrential rains.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 29 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, a dry start for parts of the east, showery rain moving onto the west coast this morning and spreading with increasing showery potential further east, 5-15 mms on average ... moderate winds from S to SW at 15-30 mph and some higher gusts near south and west coasts, highs 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... Periods of rain developing in a moderate to strong westerly wind, lows 7-10 C. Rainfalls of about 10-15 mms heavier in Connacht and west Ulster.

SATURDAY ... Showers or prolonged periods of showery rain, embedded thunderstorms, mainly non-severe although gusty winds and small hail possible, westerly veering northwesterly winds at 25-45 mph (some higher gusts possible mid-day and afternoon west coast). Chilly by recent standards with morning lows 7-9 C and afternoon temperatures 11-14 C.

SUNDAY ... Any lingering showers overnight should dissipate by midnight except possibly in east Ulster, then partial clearance to rather chilly lows around 5 to 8 C, sunny intervals during the day, highs 17-20 C.

MONDAY ... Variable but mainly higher cloud, some showers may edge onto west coast at times, highs 18-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... The first week of July looks rather unsettled (cloudy with localized showers, generally moderate amounts each day 3-7 mms) and cooler (15-18 C) but with an easterly component to the wind which is encouraging for later trends, to allow the swelling Azores high to build north of Ireland towards Scandinavia. Some maps by 10th to 15th of July on current model runs look rather warm (potential mid-20s).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe heat across most of the U.S. will bring highs of 38-43 C to the east coast and parts of the Ohio valley, central states and southwest. Isolated thunderstorms along weak cold fronts drifting south from Great Lakes into the interior northeast (PA-NY-CT-MA). Some locally severe storms could erupt but many of these are rather feeble due to the extensive dry upper levels of the frontal zones. Also a few scattered and generally weak storms in the north-central plains, as somewhat cooler air has settled in over Montana and the Dakotas (highs 24-28 C). Continued rather unsettled across western Canada. The western arctic islands have warmed up in a southeast flow and temperatures way up there around 75 deg N lat have reached 17-20 C in the continuous daylight on Banks Island. The eastern and northern arctic islands are cooler than that by about 10 deg.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, rather warm and humid, rain began around 6 p.m., rather light so far ... highs 18-20 C.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 30 June, 2012
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TODAY ... Showers or longer intervals of rain developing, heavier in Connacht and west Ulster this morning, becoming more showery later with slight risk of thunder as the front moves gradually to the east, followed by variable cloud and further showers as winds increase to WSW 30-50 mph then veer more to NW 30-50 mph (north coast not as windy until late afternoon when the low moves further away). Highs rather chilly for time of year at 13-16 C. Rainfalls about 5-10 mms for many, 10-15 mms in some north-central counties.

TONIGHT ... Windy with showers and lows only 5-8 C, partial clearing later. Winds WNW 20-40 mph.

SUNDAY ... Morning sunshine, afternoon cloud with some rain edging onto west coast during late morning to afternoon, becoming more showery further east in the afternoon and evening, 2-5 mms possible. Highs about 17-19 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with some brighter intervals, showers and slight risk of a thunderstorm, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, risk of thunderstorms, lows near 8 C and highs near 18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat unsettled but could stay dry in some places under mixed clouds and brighter intervals, temperatures fairly close to normal around 17-18 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe heat continuing today in most of the eastern states once remnants of overnight storms clear eastward, heavy storms developing south of Chicago moving east towards Ohio and Pennsylvania, Maryland later in the day. Highs between these outbreaks could reach 35-40 C again. Further south into the Tennessee valley and the southeast, sunny and very hot, highs 39-44 C. This same heat will remain over the southern plains and start pushing back north into the central plains states. Some highs above 40 C again. Outbreaks of showers and storms further north into the northern plains, Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was cloudy with light rain at times, but some clearing took place late afternoon allowing temperatures to reach 21 C.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1 July, 2012
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TODAY ... A few sunny intervals in the eastern and central counties this morning, as light rain moves slowly into the southwest. By mid-day this rain will cover most of west Munster and parts of Connacht, and then by afternoon it will gradually overspread Leinster reaching Ulster late afternoon and evening. In all regions, rainfalls of about 5-8 mms can be expected. Highs about 16 C west but 18-20 C east with the brighter conditions.

TONIGHT ... Foggy with light rain or drizzle, lows 8-10 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and risk of a thunderstorm. Some heavy rains possible (20 mms) but most places will see about 10 mms. Highs 17-19C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with a few sunny breaks, showers and some heavier thunderstorms developing, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers or periods of light rain, highs near 16 C.

THURSDAY to SATURDAY ... The European model suggests an interval of heavy showers as winds turn more to the northeast. Some other models have more showery conditions with the flow remaining southwest. As all solutions seem to be unsettled, we could split the difference and say this period is likely to mostly cloudy with occasional showers, some of which might be heavy.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... There are signs of a warmer dry interval developing during the following week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Very hot conditions will continue today in the southeast U.S. and the plains states south of Nebraska, and somewhat less extreme heat will continue in the northeast (highs 32-35 C). There will be localized showers and thunderstorms in a rather disorganized pattern of weak troughs, mainly across the frontal zone between the severe and non-severe heat. Another front further north is also somewhat active. Meanwhile, western Canada is in a much cooler and showery to rainy pattern.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a dull and showery day with highs near 18 C. Hoping for a slight improvement on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 July, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for heavy or torrential rainfalls mid-week, see forecast for details, but around Tuesday night into about Thursday, low pressure drifting around near Ireland could eventually bring another heavy rainfall event in the total range of 40-70 mms (spread out over several days).

TODAY ... Further outbreaks of rain, moderately heavy at times, with the odd rumble of thunder, will continue to drift east. Some places have seen 10-20 mms overnight and will see a few more, but ahead of the band in parts of Leinster, that 10-20 mms are yet to come. Meanwhile further north, the day will be more variable and only a few isolated showers are likely. Since the rain may be followed by some brighter intervals, most places will have a chance to warm up to 16-18 C and a few places could reach 19 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog, drizzle or light rain redeveloping, lows 11-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy with showers and some heavy thunderstorms developing, potential for 15-30 mms rain. Highs 17-19 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, periods of rain and some embedded heavy storms. Heavier amounts are likely in Connacht and inland Leinster towards Waterford, as low pressure may tend to circle around and drift in that direction. Lows near 11-12 C and highs 16-18 C. Potential for 20-40 mms rain.

THURSDAY ... Further showers and a few thunderstorms possible, lows around 11 C and highs 15-17 C. Winds becoming light northeast.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers or thundershowers, lows around 9 C and highs around 16 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Models are currently divided on the further progress of the slow-moving low, some have it drifting away and allowing higher pressure to build, others want to keep it around through the weekend into early the following week. Would say more likely to stay unsettled but keep fingers crossed.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The intense heat continues over much of the eastern U.S. with more heavy storms likely to develop in a few spots, once the current overnight rounds die out this morning, they are likely to redevelop in similar locations later today. A more organized front is drifting east across the Canadian prairies and northern plains states with cells as far south as Kansas, but some of these will be more lightning than rain. Unsettled further west as a persistent trough hangs around the west coast (sound familiar?).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy with sunny intervals, warmer than recent days, highs near 21 C on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 July, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for heavy or torrential rainfalls mid-week, see forecast for details, but around Tuesday night into about Thursday, low pressure drifting around near Ireland could eventually bring another heavy rainfall event in the total range of 40-70 mms (spread out over several days). In fact, a few places could see another similar amount over the three days Friday to Sunday, although likely further east and north, as low pressure will be drifting around just off to the south and east for several more days.

Full moon occurs today at 7:53 p.m. IST.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy with showers and some heavy thunderstorms developing mainly across parts of the inland southwest and west, potential for 15-30 mms rain there, 5-15 mms further east as showers may be less intense. Highs 17-19 C.

TONIGHT ... Heavy showers continuing, 20-40 mms potential for parts of Connacht, 10-30 mms elsewhere, some thunder at times. Risk of local flooding. Lows 10-13 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Overcast, periods of rain and some embedded heavy storms. Heavier amounts are likely in Connacht and inland Leinster towards Waterford, as low pressure may tend to circle around and drift in that direction. Lows near 11-12 C and highs 16-18 C. Potential for a further 15-30 mms rain. Risk of some severe thunderstorms in vicinity of upper low expected to drift into Mayo-Galway and near a frontal trough southeast from this into Tipps-Waterford. Large hail and intense lightning, torrential downpours (local 30-50 mms) could develop with this, leading to some severe flooding locally.

THURSDAY ... Further showers and a few thunderstorms possible, heavier in Ulster during the morning, then sporadic outbreaks further south. Lows around 11 C and highs 15-17 C. Winds becoming light northeast. Fog or mist over hills particularly in northern counties.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, a few more showers or thundershowers, likely heaviest in parts of the north and east-central counties (20-30 mms possible) in a moderate northeast wind flow (15-25 mph) ... rather chilly except where the sun manages to break through, lows around 9 C and highs around 15-16 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Further heavy showers, some thundery with hail, in light and variable winds (mainly northerly component) and occasional sunny breaks, potential for 15-30 mms rain on Saturday and 5-10 mms on Sunday as this persistent upper low begins to break into fragments, but plenty of cloud left over, highs each day about 16-18 C, mild nights (10-12 C).

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Slight chance of improvements as at least the ECM model shows some building of the Azores high, although now the GFS has lost that idea for the time being. The default forecast is probably a slow reload of the current pattern, so hopefully this time there will be higher pressure on the agenda.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Severe heat continues today across most of the eastern and central U.S. with severe thunderstorms across the north-central Great Lakes extending through Michigan into Ontario by this evening, and then on into New York and New England by Wednesday morning. Some of the central heat is now "retrograde" and building slowly towards the west coast although the desert southwest has been hot throughout this recent heat wave period. Strong fronts coming inland BC towards Alberta will set off heavy rains and thunderstorms later today across most of western Canada followed by gusty westerly winds.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunday was cloudy with spits of drizzle at times and a few brighter intervals, relatively dry until late afternoon, highs near 17 C, then steady rain this evening. Expecting showers and thunderstorms tomorrow but long-range shows promise here of a trend towards very warm and dry.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 July, 2012
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ALERT continued for locally heavy rainfalls of 30-50 mms, amounts are likely to be quite variable but due to the slow-moving nature of intense showers today and tomorrow, some western districts in particular could see flooding rainfalls. Another heavy rainfall event will arrive from the southeast on Friday.

TODAY ... Cloudy to start, with brief intervals of brighter skies, as bands of moderate to heavy showery rain with some thunder move into western counties. Amounts of 20-40 mms rain could fall in parts of Mayo, Galway, Clare, Kerry, Limerick and Cork, and 10-20 mms a little further east, but much less rain is likely in parts of the east, until quite late. Also, a few lingering heavy showers in Donegal and Derry. Highs today 16-19 C mildest in the inland northern parts of Leinster into east central Ulster. Winds across most of the east will be SSE 15-30 mph, somewhat lighter in the west as stacked low pressure drifts towards the southwest coast from the Atlantic.

TONIGHT ... Further outbreaks of heavy showery rain, 10-20 mms potential, some thunder possible. Amounts likely heaviest from central Connacht southeast into east Munster and south Leinster. Mild with fog patches, light to moderate southeast backing to east winds, lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Showers and local thunderstorms, also a few sunny breaks, winds east 15-30 mph, highs 16-18 C mildest in the west and southwest. Rainfalls generally about 10 mms but variable due to the showery nature of this outbreak.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy and mild, humid, with southeast winds 15-30 mph, intervals of rain becoming rather heavy across the east and spreading into other regions later, 15-30 mms possible. Lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

SATURDAY ... Heavy showery rains with some thunder, breaking to partly cloudy later in the day, winds NE 15-30 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 16 C east to 18 C west.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, isolated showers, some decent sunny intervals for central and western districts. Lows near 11 C and highs 16-19 C (warmer in west).

MONDAY ... Cloudy with a few breaks, showers and isolated thunderstorms. Highs near 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Unsettled seems to be the default value again, still looking for any reliable signs of higher pressure building from south.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Heat is actually intensifying in some central regions and lessening slightly in the Great Lakes and northeast states although it will remain warmer than average there. Highs to 40-43 C likely in the central plains and parts of the Midwest including Chicago, with high and oppressive humidity. Strong thunderstorms continue to move east in several waves across the Great Lakes, northern plains and Canadian prairies. Improving from showers to partly cloudy near the west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was a cloudy, drizzly day with little further accumulation of rain and highs near 17 C. Local thunderstorms developed but largely avoided this location.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 July, 2012
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ADVANCE ALERT for possible heavy rainfalls in Dublin, Wicklow and parts of the southeast, starting Friday afternoon and lasting into Saturday morning. Potential for 20-40 mms rain. Also, ALERT for locally heavy showers or thundershowers today in east Ulster possibly spreading to parts of west Ulster and Connacht. Amounts 10-25 mms.

TODAY ... Many areas dry to start, but outbreaks of heavy, showery and possibly thundery rainfalls in east Ulster, spreading later (perhaps as more isolated showers) to west Ulster and north Leinster, inland Connacht. Otherwise, partly cloudy with more isolated showers than previous days, some areas staying dry. Amounts of rain 10-25 mms in north and central counties affected by this morning's outbreak, otherwise trace to 5 mms. Highs about 18-19 C in west and south, 16-17 C in north and east. Winds light to moderate E-NE 15-30 mph, stronger gusts in coastal east and north.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with a few breaks, fog or mist patches, mild, isolated showers, lows 11-13 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud to start the day with some sunny intervals, then low cloud and stronger east winds developing with outbreaks of rain, becoming heavy at times in the east and southeast. Potential for 10-20 mms rain on Friday and a further 10-20 mms overnight into early Saturday. This rain might cause some spot flooding especially in Dublin and Wicklow. Other parts of the country may see much less rain or even stay dry.

SATURDAY ... Overnight heavy rains in the southeast (10-20 mms), then some improvement with winds backing to northerly, further showers developing but these more widely scattered around the country, 3-5 mms further rain with these, morning lows 11-13 C and afternoon highs 16-18 C.

SUNDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers becoming more isolated, some places dry, lows about 10 C and highs 18-19 C.

OUTLOOK ... There is some chance of a few dry days or at least a more settled spell next week. Temperatures could edge up towards 20-21 C.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The intense heat continues with the worst likely near Chicago (highs 40-43 C) but temperatures well above 35 C in many parts of the U.S., even the west is beginning to warm up now as the ridge begins to flatten and retrogress slightly. This has pushed the frontal boundary back into southern Canada mainly, but heavy storms are likely in parts of the Great Lakes region and inland northeast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny most of the day on Wednesday, with a high of about 22 C. Plenty of high cloud but just one or two brief intervals with lower cloud.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 July, 2012
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ALERT for heavy rainfalls in southeast counties today, 20-40 mms potential, flash flooding may occur especially in east-central Wicklow and north Wexford. ADVANCE ALERT for moderate to heavy rains in the north tonight and Saturday morning, 15-30 mms likely.

TODAY ... Periods of rain will sweep into the south (rather soon this morning with another wave due mid-day to afternoon) with occasional thunder, but this rain is likely to be heavy mostly on the east side of the Wicklow and Dublin Mountains, fragmenting somewhat further west. Amounts of 20-40 mms likely from Dublin south to Wexford, and there may be a sharp "cut-off" of heavier amounts around Dublin. Noticeable "rainshadow" effects likely further west but some other parts of the south could see 10-20 mms mainly in other "upslope" areas as winds come in from the east at 10-20 mph. Outside of the southeast, variable cloud with isolated showers and risk of a brief thundershower. Rainfalls trace to 5 mms. Highs for most around 16-18 C.

TONIGHT ... The rain in the south should become more showery and begin to fragment into showers while generally pulling away to the south as winds back to northeast 15-25 mph, with low cloud and fog, lows near 11 C. Further north, a second (or third) wave of heavy rain (15-30 mms) with some thunder is likely to sweep into east Ulster and then extend in less intense form towards Connacht. This area is likely to break down into showers and isolated thundershowers mid-morning with remnants drifting south. Lows about 9-11 C.

SATURDAY ... Remnants of earlier northern activity will drift south and some brief sunny intervals may also develop, with winds NNE 15-25 mph backing further to NNW during the afternoon. Quite variable conditions are likely with isolated heavy showers, some other places seeing longer dry intervals, and some showers of less intensity or drizzle. Highs 15-17 C.

SUNDAY, MONDAY ... Variable cloud both days, some reasonably long dry spells or sunny intervals, and occasional showers on a hit or miss basis giving about 3-5 mms in a few spots. Heavier showers could develop across the north later Monday. Highs each day near 16 C north to 19 C south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Still watching for that long overdue improvement, models this morning are generally leaning towards an unsettled westerly type flow but with the high pressure slowly gaining some ground to the southwest.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The intense heat will continue today across large portions of the U.S. and while it holds on in the northeast, the core is actually shifting slowly west into the plains states, and allowing the Pacific northwest and British Columbia to warm up. An outbreak of heavy to intense storms is likely later today and tonight in South Dakota, Minnesota, northern Iowa, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, after a day in the Chicago region near 40 C, there could be heavy overnight storms there as well.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was sunny and rather warm at 22 C, with a sea breeze just reaching this location, about 25-28 C further inland; forecasts are for a heat wave to develop around here on the weekend.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Some persistent light rain for the north, breaking to showers later with remnants drifting south although mainly to the western counties, rainfall amounts 5-10 mms north trending to 2-5 mms southwest and trace to 2 mms east. Some longer bright intervals and brief sunny breaks possible for south coast and east. Highs 16-19 C, winds NNE 15-30 mph but variable in direction as troughs develop.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, a few showers, lows near 12 C.

SUNDAY ... Outbreaks of light rain or drizzle pushing south in Leinster, skies more variable further west with isolated showers, in a generally northerly flow. Highs 15-18 C, winds NNW 10-20 mph. Drying poor to moderate at best.

MONDAY ... Somewhat less showery in a rather cloudy NW to N flow, isolated showers mostly in western counties, lows 8-10 C and highs 16-18 C. Drying moderate for most.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Continued partly to mostly cloudy, rather cool with winds generally northwest sometimes backing to westerly, a few showers each day, highs 16-18 C.

THURSDAY ... Periods of light rain developing, then fading away, with 5-8 mms potential. Highs 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Just a few vague signs of significant improvement in a rather unsettled pattern.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The severe heat wave continues from Chicago east to New York and Washington DC, and across the southeast the main trend is towards more frequent thunderstorms while it remains very hot between storms. Highs could reach 40-42 C in places, and a weak front across the Great Lakes will only drop highs to around 30 C. A few heavier storms are likely in Wisconsin and Michigan. The west is now becoming much warmer also, with sunshine and highs reaching 35 C inland parts of the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, trending to high 20s across the prairies and northern plains states which have largely escaped the severe heat and associated drought.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was sunny and warm here with a weak sea breeze, keeping the high down to 23 C while it reached 27-30 C further inland.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, intervals of light rain or drizzle more persistent in eastern counties, but amounts generally light (2-4 mms), some parts of west and south could remain largely dry with brief sunny intervals, all in a moderate northerly breeze 10-20 mph ... highs 15-18 C mildest in south.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy to overcast, just a few isolated showers, amounts trace to 2 mms ... lows 11-13 C.

MONDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, highs 16-19 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers fairly widespread, some improvement later to partly cloudy, lows near 11 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, light showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of light to moderate rain, 5-10 mms likely, a bit more humid with lows 11-13 C and highs 16-18 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Little change, unsettled but not too wet compared to recent weeks.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The focus of heat seems to be shifting west for a while, although it will remain hot in parts of the central plains states, but the northeast and Great Lakes have now escaped to a more moderate seasonable warmth (25-30 C) with scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms likely. The Washington DC area could see very heavy showers later today as they escape from the torrid heat (41 C on Saturday). So, warm and dry spreading well to the west now into parts of the inland northwest and western Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Just about perfect on Saturday with sunshine, highs near 23 C in a light sea breeze, a few degrees warmer further inland. It may get a few degrees warmer today and Monday as the sea breeze is cut off by more of a southeast flow. A bit hazy on the coast but smoke from Colorado fires has spread into parts of central B.C. and we might see more of that here eventually. It has been too wet in B.C. for much of a forest fire hazard but a week or two of this may change the risks.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, a few showers, heavier east-central counties where 3-7 mms possible, some western districts may be mostly dry with a little more sunshine later, highs 16-19 C. Winds moderate NW 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy, drizzle or light showers but only 1-3 mms accumulation, lows around 10-12 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers fairly widespread, becoming rather heavy at times mid-day around Dublin and east coast, some isolated thundershowers possible, then some improvement later to partly cloudy, could see some longer sunny intervals in west. Highs near 17 C and rainfalls 5-10 mms.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy to overcast, light showers, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... Intervals of light to moderate rain, 5-10 mms likely, a bit more humid with lows 11-13 C and highs 16-18 C. Chance of some isolated heavy showers over the east and southeast.

FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers more isolated, highs near 17 C.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Heavy showers possible on Saturday, improvements by Sunday to partly cloudy, rather cool especially Saturday, highs about 15 C to 17-19 C Sunday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Perhaps it's almost better not to mention these early signs that tend to fade, but the GFS does look a lot warmer and more settled beyond the middle of the month. The GEM which goes only ten days has slight hints of the same trend. The ECM also picks up this warmer signal around a week to ten days from now.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The severe heat wave has largely broken down in the east and remnants of it are somewhat less extreme in the southeast and Midwest, central plains, with more thunderstorms scattered around in the hot, humid air mass. The northeast and Great Lakes should enjoy a near-normal sunny day with isolated showers, highs about 26-28 C. Meanwhile, it has turned quite hot in the west, with a few thunderstorms working their way north in the valleys between the Cascades and the Rockies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Hazy sunshine and very warm on Sunday, a high of about 27 C (even hotter inland). Expecting about the same on Monday.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Variable cloud to start, with isolated showers, but a more organized band of showery rain likely to move into the west during the morning and then become more thundery as it reaches the eastern counties this afternoon ... rainfalls 5-10 mms west, eventually 10-15 mms east ... highs about 16-18 C for most. Northwesterly breezes developing later with some gusts to 30 mph.

TONIGHT ... Showers clearing east, then partly cloudy and rather cool with fog or mist patches, lows 7-9 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, one or two heavier thundershowers possible, rainfalls generally 3-7 mms, highs 15-17 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud, outbreaks of moderate rain becoming heavy in a few places (inland south most likely), rainfalls 10-20 mms, lows 7-9 C and highs 15-17 C.

FRIDAY ... Showers, moderate northwest winds, lows near 9 C and highs near 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, lows near 8 C and highs around 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, a bit warmer, highs near 19 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some showers likely around Monday but longer term, somewhat better indications now for a settled and warmer period later in the month. I am hoping that we can get a decent warm spell out of this developing Azores high, as it begins to show signs of building into the south later next week.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Although the severe heat is largely done now, the air mass that has replaced it is at least seasonably warm if not a bit above normal, and has pushed a very active front south into the Gulf coast and southeast states where heavy storms are now becoming widespread. It remains very dry in the Midwest and Great Lakes, northeast states. Very warm air also covers most of the west as far north as the Canadian subarctic and highs of 32-36 C are common across the Canadian prairies and northern plains, with isolated thundershowers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was very warm and sunny (hazy at times) with highs near 28 C locally, 35-40 C further inland.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Parts of west Munster will see heavy showers this morning, but otherwise the day will begin generally dry or with isolated light showers in other parts, with some heavier showers and one or two thunderstorms developing around mid-day and afternoon in a light northwesterly flow. Rather cool with highs 15-17 C. Rainfalls generally 3-5 mms on average but could reach 10-20 mms in a few places.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy and generally dry under a weak ridge, lows 6-8 C.

THURSDAY ... Increasing cloud north and east, with rain moving into the southwest around dawn, then the rain moving slowly east across Munster and south Leinster, bringing 10-20 mms in southeast winds 15-25 mph. The day should remain largely dry further north with just drizzle or isolated showers developing late afternoon. Highs 16-18 C north and east, 15-16 C southeast, and 15-17 C southwest and west with some late clearing.

FRIDAY ... Rain gradually clearing away to the east during the morning, otherwise, most places becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers becoming heavier and in some cases thundery, lows 8-10 C and highs around 15-17 C with 5-10 mms of rain.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, moderate northwest winds, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, isolated showers mainly northern counties, highs 18-20 C south, central, 16-18 C north.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat improved next week, temperatures at least should be back to normal or even somewhat above at times, around 20-21 C, in more of a southwest flow. It's a pattern that could build towards a warm spell or, more pessimistic appraisal, could slowly return to an unsettled cooler westerly.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... It will remain hot and mostly dry across large portions of the west and north central U.S. and adjacent west-central Canada, highs generally into the lower to mid 30s. This trends to very hot weather in the southwest (highs near 45 C) but Texas and parts of the southeast have cooled off due to widespread cloud and showers, and some places are not even reaching 30 C which is unusual for that region. The east central and northeast U.S., Great Lakes and Midwest are in a dry, warm but not excessively hot air mass with highs near 29 or 30 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... There was a slightly more noticeable sea breeze but the warm spell continued under clear (except for smoke-haze) skies ... highs around 24 C at my location, trending to upper 30s well inland but only 16-18 C on the outer coast.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Heavy rain at times this morning across the south coastal counties, but this will not move much further north before sliding away to the east mid-day ... some much lighter rain is trying to push east across the central counties but don't be surprised if it amounts to very little in the Midlands and Dublin region, and meanwhile Ulster is almost certain to remain mostly dry ... some sunny intervals may accompany the dry weather in the east and north ... highs only 15-16 C south due to low cloud and rain, but could reach 18 or 19 C further north (16-17 likely west coast). Winds rather light for most except some moderate SE veering to WSW in the far south.

TONIGHT ... Cloudy with clear intervals, just a few isolated showers, lows around 7 to 9 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers although amounts generally slight (2-5 mms) and a bit on the cool side with highs around 17 C.

SATURDAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine, isolated showers, moderate west to northwest winds. Slight risk of a thunderstorm mid-day. Lows about 6 or 7 C then highs 17-19 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, a few showers mainly confined to northwest coastal districts, highs near 18 C (could touch 20 C south).

MONDAY ... Warmer for the south, low cloud and drizzle or light rain may linger in the west and north but meanwhile southeast (especially inland) could see 20-22 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The pattern beyond Monday continues to look vaguely encouraging with hints of higher pressures and therefore warmer temperatures than of late, but I am not wildly optimistic (yet), would suggest most likely outcome is the odd dry day, and showery days not too chilly or overly wet. Drying therefore could at least improve slowly.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot and dry in many parts of the continent but heavy rainfalls southeast and Gulf coasts, the severe heat has been redirected to western Canada where it isn't quite as extreme (32-35 C mainly) although the desert southwest region is baking in 43-46 C highs.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was quite a hot day with a weak sea breeze failing to reach my location although it kept the airport at 22 C for a high, felt like 31 C a mere 10 kms inland here. Considerable haze from forest fire smoke wafting over the Bering Sea from Siberia.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 July, 2012
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, occasional showers, mostly light but some scattered heavier ones developing later with risk of thunder and hail ... rainfalls quite variable as a result but in the 5-15 mm range for most (watch for updates here or on storm threads, one or two locations could see spot flooding from locally intense storms, Dublin could be in the mix) ... highs generally 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... A few dry intervals as showers begin to dissipate, but some persistent drizzle or light rain in parts of the north ... lows 6-8 C.

SATURDAY ... Intervals of cloud and sunshine, occasional showers and risk of a thundershower, highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny with cloudy intervals south and east, more like cloudy with a few sunny breaks west and north, drizzle or light rain at times near outer west and north coasts, warmer for most, lows 8-10 C and highs 19-21 C.

MONDAY ... Warm and close for the east, south and southwest, mild and humid with low cloud, drizzle and mist west and north. Some sunny intervals in east, lows 11-13 C and highs 19-21 C.

OUTLOOK ... Showery at times mid-week, turning a bit cooler but another surge of warmer and perhaps sunny (inland away from south and west coast, anyway) with highs into the lower 20s possible. Some maps for 10-12 days indicate potential for 24-26 C in Ireland and 29-32 C in Britain. Not necessarily a humid air mass but with all the ground moisture around, hard to see how warm air masses could fail to become humid at least for a while.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot and humid across many central regions including much of western Canada, with outbreaks of severe storms especially in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Minnesota and northern Ontario. Highs in the 32-35 C range. Sunny and hot further west to the coast and widespread monsoonal storms over the inland Great Basin and parts of the desert southwest in a disturbed southeast flow. Also widespread rain and storms in the southeast U.S., but drought continues in the Midwest and lower Great Lakes, inland northeast regions with highs 31-33 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and hot again here, very little wind or sea breeze, Cb tops off to the distant southeast at sunset, highs earlier near 27.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 14 July, 2012
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TODAY ... A mixture of cloud and sunshine with just isolated passing showers allowing quite a few places to remain dry ... any rainfalls will be generally in the 1-3 mm range ... a slight risk of a thunderstorm in central counties ... highs 17-19 C in a moderate WNW breeze 15-30 mph (one club wind, maybe two if you're old and weak like me) .

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy with longer clear spells in south, lows 6-9 C (but well before most people are up, then it will be 12-15 C).

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, increasing cloud in west, some light rain by evening in west Munster, coastal Mayo. Isolated showers developing further inland. Highs 18-20 C.

MONDAY ... Cloudy with drizzle, low cloud west and north, trending to partly cloudy or sunny further east, with increasing cloud there later, light rain spreading gradually towards central counties, warm and humid with lows around 11 C and highs around 19-21 C.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy, showers, mild to warm, humid, lows about 13 C and highs about 20 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Showers or periods of rain, 10-15 mms potential, lows near 12 C and highs 17-18 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, seasonable, isolated showers. Highs around 19 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... All reliable models seem to be converging on a much warmer pattern starting around the weekend of the 21st-22nd and allowing higher pressure to build in from the southwest. This could involve some low cloud, fog or mist near the outer south and west coast and patchy low cloud further inland, but sunshine would boost temperatures to the mid-20s at times elsewhere. The pattern seems progressive and could lead to very warm or even hot weather eventually. We have a contest underway in the forum if you want to try your skill at predicting the highest temperature and when/where that will happen. (It already was 27.8 at Shannon back in May, so this may or may not be a new high for the year).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Hot and humid in most regions but exceptionally hot in some parts of the northern plains and southern prairies, while more of a near-normal heat in many other regions at present. A weak but potentially active frontal trough is forming over the Great Lakes and could bring a few heavy storms to Wisconsin, Michigan and Ontario later. Portions of northern IL, IN and OH are also in a marginal severe category. Further south it's more of a heavy rainfall situation along a stalled old frontal boundary from last week that has decided to drift back north now.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was sunny and warm (25 C) with passing virga showers (a few raindrops fell out of one but I was the only person who noticed them, I think). Weak thundershowers have formed in the region this evening and are drifting west to die over the cold water of the Pacific. We're expecting a similar day on Saturday then low cloud and a cooler marine layer on Sunday.

Just for fun, I will post the occasional cloud-dominated photo to remind people about the Cloud Festival (see thread elsewhere). This one is a sunset shot with extensive cirrus (at Crescent Beach south of Vancouver).