2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

DataDude · 26-02-2021 11:12pm

schmittel wrote: »

If I was in your position - age and earnings - I'd be very tempted to stretch the budget and go for Ulverton if it is the dream home. Location is fantastic, and by the sounds of things you have friends and family in the area which will be worth a lot over the lifetime of the home.

My thinking would be to do it the old fashioned way and fix it up over a few years. It doesn't exactly look like a wreck as is, so perfectly habitable for now. Would you really need to spend a few hundred thousand?

Bit of an inconvenience to stretch out the renovations, but you'd forget about it fairly quick when you have the convenience of walking up the road to drop the little ones off with Granny on your way to the pub! (assuming Granny lives in Dalkey, but I may be wrong there!)

Your earnings are such that fixing it up bit by bit is not the normal saving up for a new boiler type of drama. You could blast a bit every year. Drop 50k on kitchens and bathrooms one year, redo all the windows the next etc.

All of the above really only applies if you have family in Dalkey, (which I may have jumped to conclusions on) - once you have kids etc, the value of having family close by is immense (assuming you get on with them!). There are other reasons I'd be tempted, but that is the main one.

Funnily enough we don’t actually have family in Dalkey! I’ve just built a real love for the place over the last few years so could easily see how you’d have inferred that from my posts!
Both our families are actually Wicklow based. Too far south for us to consider joining them, but Greystones would be close and is a real possibility now with WFH, hence us looking there increasingly. SCD still very much in the picture too though.

With regards to your comment re. pushing the boat out. It’s something I almost talk myself into every now and then, usually after a bottle of wine. It is indeed tempting, but ultimately don’t wanna be ‘that guy who was reckless and borrowed crazily right in the middle of a pandemic - what an idiot’ akin the accusations that are often thrown (perhaps fairly) at those who got in too deep during the Celtic Tiger.

Over the next few years we’ve got kids (hopefully), and a move to single income household. On top of that who knows: interest rate rises, tax increases, hard left government? I’d be really feeling the draughts passing through that house on Ulverton Road if all of that came to pass. Think we’ll try to remain somewhat conservative, and always time to move to an Ulverton type in the future if the cards keep falling in our favour!

hometruths · 26-02-2021 11:20pm

DataDude wrote: »

Funnily enough we don’t actually have family in Dalkey! I’ve just built a real love for the place over the last few years so could easily see how you’d have inferred that from my posts!
Both our families are actually Wicklow based. Too far south for us to consider joining them, but Greystones would be close and is a real possibility now with WFH, hence us looking there increasingly. SCD still very much in the picture too though.

With regards to your comment re. pushing the boat out. It’s something I almost talk myself into every now and then, usually after a bottle of wine. It is indeed tempting, but ultimately don’t wanna be ‘that guy who was reckless and borrowed crazily right in the middle of a pandemic - what an idiot’ akin the accusations that are often thrown (perhaps fairly) at those who got in too deep during the Celtic Tiger.

Ok that changes things! My thinking would be it is worth the stretch for local family reasons, but if that's not the case, sounds like you're being very wise.

DataDude wrote: »

Over the next few years we’ve got kids (hopefully), and a move to single income household. On top of that who knows: interest rate rises, tax increases, hard left government? I’d be really feeling the draughts passing through that house on Ulverton Road if all of that came to pass. Think we’ll try to remain somewhat conservative, and always time to move to an Ulverton type in the future if the cards keep falling in our favour!

Sounds a lot like you're (wisely) considering potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria...

Hubertj · 26-02-2021 11:24pm

schmittel wrote: »

I'd happily live in a listed building and put on another jumper!

Oh I did! Couldn’t use the fireplace either as chimney breasts were cracked....

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:27pm

schmittel wrote: »

Sounds a lot like you're (wisely) considering potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria...

Christ

Minor considerations compared to becoming a single income family and adding children to the mix

And stop pretending that you were referring to income taxes.

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 11:28pm

PropQueries wrote: »

Even the Governor of the Irish Central Bank said back in September that “price inflation experienced by households may be higher than what is officially measured.”

What was interesting was that he also said that “the Central Bank last looked at the methods used in measuring inflation back in 2003 and that it intended to re-examine them in the light of Covid.”

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165123-central-bank-on-inflation/

To me, it's shocking that price inflation hasn't been measured correctly. There are all sorts of implications for a miscollection and misreporting of such an important data point. At least the Governor has conceded they need to do better.

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 11:32pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Christ

Minor considerations compared to becoming a single income family and adding children to the mix

And stop pretending that you were referring to income taxes.

I dont believe that. You spend most of your time on boards. Anyone with young family would be too busy to be as prolific a contributor a yourself.

Cant say I blame you either for the subterfuge. We all disguise our identities on forums such as this.

But the prolific posting in your case is a giveaway.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 11:33pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Christ

Minor considerations compared to becoming a single income family and adding children to the mix

And stop pretending that you were referring to income taxes.

I'm not pretending anything. Any chance you could enlighten me by spelling out exactly what I was referring to?

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:39pm

DataDude wrote: »

Funnily enough we don’t actually have family in Dalkey! I’ve just built a real love for the place over the last few years so could easily see how you’d have inferred that from my posts!
Both our families are actually Wicklow based. Too far south for us to consider joining them, but Greystones would be close and is a real possibility now with WFH, hence us looking there increasingly. SCD still very much in the picture too though.

With regards to your comment re. pushing the boat out. It’s something I almost talk myself into every now and then, usually after a bottle of wine. It is indeed tempting, but ultimately don’t wanna be ‘that guy who was reckless and borrowed crazily right in the middle of a pandemic - what an idiot’ akin the accusations that are often thrown (perhaps fairly) at those who got in too deep during the Celtic Tiger.

Over the next few years we’ve got kids (hopefully), and a move to single income household. On top of that who knows: interest rate rises, tax increases, hard left government? I’d be really feeling the draughts passing through that house on Ulverton Road if all of that came to pass. Think we’ll try to remain somewhat conservative, and always time to move to an Ulverton type in the future if the cards keep falling in our favour!

The one thing I’ll say is if you have an affinity already with dalkey you won’t regret moving there , certain places are overrated but not glasthule or dalkey and likewise for parts of glenageary Killiney and dun laoghaire .

This house caught my eye a while back, and no work to do, it sold quickly .

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/44-york-road-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96p928/4472776

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:44pm

Pelezico wrote: »

I dont believe that. You spend most of your time on boards. Anyone with young family would be too busy to be as prolific a contributor a yourself.

Cant say I blame you either for the subterfuge. We all disguise our identities on forums such as this.

But the prolific posting in your case is a giveaway.

Nice try but I won’t bite only to point out the statistical inaccuracy of your post which won’t surprise anyone you aren’t great with numbers .

You are a more prolific poster than me

And I never mentioned my family you are the one intent on boring every one with tales of your son.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 11:48pm

schmittel wrote: »

There are hundreds of thousands of residential properties that are not "part of the current supply for one reason or another".

But they do exist. At some stage they will become part of the current supply for one reason or another.

And when that happens, you will have your oversupply.

This is what you said , you then said they would become available due to changes in the legislative and legal framework at some undefined point in the future, I remember you got annoyed when it was pointed out that that point was hardly going to be in 2021.

What you meant was obviously that there would be a vacant property tax to push people to sell . But you’ll deny that so I’m really not sure why I have bothered.

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 11:52pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Nice try but I won’t bite only to point out the statistical inaccuracy of your post which won’t surprise anyone you aren’t great with numbers .

You are a more prolific poster than me

And I never mentioned my family you are the one intent on boring every one with tales of your son.

Hmm. I have 600 posts and you have 14000 posts. I am impressed with your dedication.

Anyway, let's stay on topic and talk about property.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 11:59pm

Cyrus wrote: »

This is what you said , you then said they would become available due to changes in the legislative and legal framework at some undefined point in the future, I remember you got annoyed when it was pointed out that that point was hardly going to be in 2021.

What you meant was obviously that there would be a vacant property tax to push people to sell . But you’ll deny that so I’m really not sure why I have bothered.

:rolleyes: I notice you didn't quote the post where I mentioned tax.

schmittel wrote: »

They are not on the market for sale or rent at moment principally because of the current tax and legislative framework.

One reason or another covers a myriad of reasons all of which are because of "the current tax and legislative framework" which includes income tax.

Eg there are undoubtedly properties that are not on the market for rent because people think that post income tax return is not worth it.

This is actually the most relevant post in context of the exchange between you and I:

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of (most I suspect) buyers and sellers in 2021 will consider potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria.

You really think, even with my fascination for the vacancies, that I meant most buyers and sellers consider whether or not we'll have a vacant property tax in the future?!

I'm not sure why you bothered either. Say you were wrong and move on maybe?

Yurt2 · 27-02-2021 12:19am

schmittel wrote: »

Eg there are undoubtedly properties that are not on the market for rent because people think that post income tax return is not worth it.

This is actually the most relevant post in context of the exchange between you and I:

We also know of people (or at least I do) of many people who have a buy-to-let that is mortgage free and has been for years and are happy to sit on it for the capital appreciation, they're a little bit older and don't want 'the hassle' of letting it out - and once they hit retirement they plan to pull the trigger to sell. Let's not be fooled that it's merely tax treatment of rental income that drives behavior. The tax treatment of rental income hasn't changed in donkeys of years as far as I'm aware and everybody knew the game they were getting into.

hometruths · 27-02-2021 12:31am

Yurt! wrote: »

We also know of people (or at least I do) of many people who have a buy-to-let that is mortgage free and has been for years and are happy to sit on it for the capital appreciation, they're a little bit older and don't want 'the hassle' of letting it out - and once they hit retirement they plan to pull the trigger to sell. Let's not be fooled that it's merely tax treatment of rental income that drives behavior. The tax treatment of rental income hasn't changed in donkeys of years as far as I'm aware and everybody knew the game they were getting into.

No I don’t think it is just income tax, that’s my point - I was covering all bases.

These properties are not on market because of income tax, CGT, CAT, fair deal, arrears, interest rates etc etc i.e one reason or another all of which is covered by the current tax and legislative framework.

The actual point Cyrus took issue with is I said current buyers and sellers consider future changes in tax and legislation. He seems to think they don’t which is completely daft. IMO

Cyrus · 27-02-2021 12:46am

schmittel wrote: »

No I don’t think it is just income tax, that’s my point - I was covering all bases.

These properties are not on market because of income tax, CGT, CAT, fair deal, arrears, interest rates etc etc i.e one reason or another all of which is covered by the current tax and legislative framework.

The actual point Cyrus took issue with is I said current buyers and sellers consider future changes in tax and legislation. He seems to think they don’t which is completely daft. IMO

What I actually took issue with was you projecting way beyond 2021 inferring that you were certain that there would be changes that would bring all of these vacant properties to market solving the supply issue .

And it couldn’t have been to income tax as that hasn’t changed materially in some time.

Which is completely daft IMO

Cyrus · 27-02-2021 12:52am

Pelezico wrote: »

Hmm. I have 600 posts and you have 14000 posts. I am impressed with your dedication.

Anyway, let's stay on topic and talk about property.

And yet you are ahead of me on posts per day aren’t you. I am also impressed with your dedication in your short time as a member.

Nice of you to want to keep it on topic after veering wildly off topic to try and illicit a reaction .

hometruths · 27-02-2021 12:54am

Nope. This is what you posted.

Cyrus wrote: »

So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?

And I replied:

schmittel wrote: »

He's reduced his max budget according to his post.

At which point you started telling me what I meant:

Cyrus wrote: »

Making an allowance for a change in income tax rates but we both know that’s not what you meant. And I’d class him as a relatively sophisticated buyer.

And I never mentioned anything about vacant properties specifically.

Cyrus · 27-02-2021 12:56am

schmittel wrote: »

Nope. This is what you posted.

And I replied:

At which point you started telling me what I meant:

And I never mentioned anything about vacant properties specifically.

And yet he inferred the same from your posts as I did funny that.

hometruths · 27-02-2021 12:58am

Cyrus wrote: »

And yet he inferred the same from your posts as I did funny that.

:rolleyes:

Cyrus · 27-02-2021 1:00am

schmittel wrote: »

There are hundreds of thousands of residential properties that are not "part of the current supply for one reason or another".

But they do exist. At some stage they will become part of the current supply for one reason or another.

And when that happens, you will have your oversupply.

Just so I’m clear then you aren’t including vacant properties in the above, asking for a friend .

Cyrus · 27-02-2021 1:02am

schmittel wrote: »

:rolleyes:

If the wind changes your face will be stuck like that

hometruths · 27-02-2021 1:03am

Cyrus wrote: »

Just so I’m clear then you aren’t including vacant properties in the above, asking for a friend .

I’m including vacant properties as well as many others.

Pelezico · 27-02-2021 1:11am

Cyrus wrote: »

And yet he inferred the same from your posts as I did funny that.

Cyrus...go to bed for goodness sake. This thread will be here tomorrow. For you. We promise to keep it going for you.

My advice to all younger parents is to spend some quality time with your families. Life is short.

Property discussion is pretty peripheral.

Cyrus · 27-02-2021 1:15am

Pelezico wrote: »

Cyrus...go to bed for goodness sake. This thread will be here tomorrow. For you. We promise to keep it going for you.

My advice to all younger parents is to spend some quality time with your families. Life is short.

Property discussion is pretty peripheral.

Thanks for your concern old timer best hit the hay yourself , always take your own advice

I wish there was more property discussion I enjoy that , it’s doomsday fetishes that leave me cold.

Graham · 27-02-2021 2:06am

Mod Note

Pelezico, Cyrus, knock it off.

thefridge2006 · 27-02-2021 3:31am

Yellen signals it’s ‘game on’ for global corporate tax reform

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/yellen-signals-it-s-game-on-for-global-corporate-tax-reform-1.4496154

Global rules on taxing tech firms move closer as US drops Trump-era objection

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/global-rules-on-taxing-tech-firms-move-closer-as-us-drops-trump-era-objection-1.4496396

One of the several canaries in a coal mine. We must have an aviary of canaries at this stage

Interesting from Ibec chief economist Gerard Brady when he said that the announcement by the Biden administration is “very meaningful for the prospects of agreement by July”. But he cautioned that an OECD agreement would prove a competitiveness challenge to the Republic’s business model. “We will need to look to invest in other competitiveness levers such as education, research and development, and critical infrastructure.”

Critical infrastructure ..... lol, well that's us fu£ked so

Yurt2 · 27-02-2021 4:33am

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Yellen signals it’s ‘game on’ for global corporate tax reform

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/yellen-signals-it-s-game-on-for-global-corporate-tax-reform-1.4496154

Global rules on taxing tech firms move closer as US drops Trump-era objection

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/global-rules-on-taxing-tech-firms-move-closer-as-us-drops-trump-era-objection-1.4496396

One of the several canaries in a coal mine. We must have an aviary of canaries at this stage

Interesting from Ibec chief economist Gerard Brady when he said that the announcement by the Biden administration is “very meaningful for the prospects of agreement by July”. But he cautioned that an OECD agreement would prove a competitiveness challenge to the Republic’s business model. “We will need to look to invest in other competitiveness levers such as education, research and development, and critical infrastructure.”

Critical infrastructure ..... lol, well that's us fu£ked so

This day was always going to arrive. You'd hope that the boffins in the civil service and state agencies have a *break glass for alternative economic model* ready to go wouldn't you?

Twas a good run lads.

DataDude · 27-02-2021 10:53am

Cyrus wrote: »

The one thing I’ll say is if you have an affinity already with dalkey you won’t regret moving there , certain places are overrated but not glasthule or dalkey and likewise for parts of glenageary Killiney and dun laoghaire .

This house caught my eye a while back, and no work to do, it sold quickly .

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/44-york-road-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96p928/4472776

Incredible house. I was trying to do a whip round at Christmas dinner last year to get us the extra money we’d need for it! That said, I heard from a couple of people who live in Dun Laoghaire that York Road wouldn’t be considered a truly ‘prime location’.

Hasn’t hit the PPR yet but, as you say, it sold very quickly which means it probably went well in excess of the €1.6m asking.

Cyrus · 27-02-2021 11:09am

DataDude wrote: »

Incredible house. I was trying to do a whip round at Christmas dinner last year to get us the extra money we’d need for it! That said, I heard from a couple of people who live in Dun Laoghaire that York Road wouldn’t be considered a truly ‘prime location’.

Hasn’t hit the PPR yet but, as you say, it sold very quickly which means it probably went well in excess of the €1.6m asking.

No York road isn’t prime but it’s not bad, the combination of the external aesthetic of the house and the apparent quality of the fit out do make it very appealing though I have to say ! Good luck to whoever bought it.

A few other things came to mind last night so if it’s ok I’ll pm you Monday with a few other considerations that may not be at the forefront of your mind now but will be at some stage !

DataDude · 27-02-2021 11:41am

Cyrus wrote: »

No York road isn’t prime but it’s not bad, the combination of the external aesthetic of the house and the apparent quality of the fit out do make it very appealing though I have to say ! Good luck to whoever bought it.

A few other things came to mind last night so if it’s ok I’ll pm you Monday with a few other considerations that may not be at the forefront of your mind now but will be at some stage !

Yes, please do. Any insights are much appreciated!

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1