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2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*
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So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?
I might actually be a bad example here because I have already factored in a change in tax and reduced my max budget for a house somewhat
. Make spreadsheets for just about everything and have projected a 5% increase in marginal tax rate above €100k plus elimination of tax credits along with some other COVID related stuff e.g. no pay increases vs previously assumed 3% per annum in 2021 - 2023 and reduced bonus payment in those years.
I'm weird like that though and don't think I'm in anyway representative of most people. But it is crazy to me how people couldn't be worried about these things going forward. I guess if your income is lower then tax is unlikely to be an issue and your gross pay can only fall so much, but I strongly believe people on higher incomes need to be considering some "solidarity tax/USC 2.0". Not the Irish way though - "borrow as much as I can, get the house - payments? Will try to make them as best I can, but sure if I don't, they can't take the house anyway!"
EDIT - only read that post in isolation. Have now realized conversation wasn't really around personal taxation. Personally, I've lost all hope of any dramatic policy shifts in relation to housing from this government that would provide downward pressure on house prices. I think the opposite is more likely. I am kept awake at night at the possibility of this leading to a hard left government with subsequent policies affecting prices (and a lot of other things...). That prospect is both too far away and not certain enough to really impact my buying decisions today.0 -
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At this stage i can't take anyone seriously who is adamant that prices are going to keep rising in the long term > 5 years, regardless of credentials/title/organization.
I'm not saying property prices will drop by a huge amount in the short term but with mass unemployment, biggest recession in history and SF coming into power in 2024, tis not looking good for the aul price rises.
Where are you getting mass unemployment? For god sakes can you and others predicting doom and gloom not see that the country is shut down , companies have been told to close. I have no doubt some wont reopen but the majority on pup will be going back to jobs they were doing in 2019. If you have any evidence of the contrary can you provide it?
SF will be an absolute joke if they get in they have promised the sun moon and stars and when they come up against the fact that the majority of the spend in this country is on public sector and welfare they will find out just how hard it is to take away what has been given. So cutting will be very hard, then on the tax when they find out how low we enter the higher tax bracket and understand that raising taxes higher on people already paying over 50% of every Euro earned at such a low rate the law of diminishing returns will squarely kneecap them. The room for tax raises on income is at the lower end of the spectrum where people earning under a certain threshold pay little or nothing but these people are SF main base. It will be actually funny watching them in power to be honest. Similar to a Trump it will be a sh1tshow or like a dog chasing a car, they go at it fiercely to try and get the car and when they get it they have no clue what to do and usually end up getting squashed
Did you copy and paste your last paragraph from 2020 0 -
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beggars_bush wrote: »Where are all these empty houses?
This is the hundred billion dollar question. Some posters on here seem to think we have an abundance of supply, over 100k according to some. They are including properties that have succumbed to being abolished and not counted out as such, some are not habitable yet kept in the count, some were counted as empty when the census was done so included in the empties even do they are not, some are holiday homes so someone actually owns them and uses them so they are not part of supply and some are rooms over shops that some feel are worthy of being included in this count. Yet when the question of why the hell are they not up for sale or rent when we are experiencing a price rise in property or up for rent when rents are very high they have no answer except tax and legislation. Which I actually agree with when it comes to property being held by REITS and hedge funds, these companies can afford to lose profits now if they get more in the long run. But some think this wave of property will be hitting the market in the near future..Careful bring your umbrella it might be raining apartments and sheds soon 0 -
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fliball123 wrote: »Where are you getting mass unemployment? For god sakes can you and others predicting doom and gloom not see that the country is shut down , companies have been told to close. I have no doubt some wont reopen but the majority on pup will be going back to jobs they were doing in 2019. If you have any evidence of the contrary can you provide it?
SF will be an absolute joke if they get in they have promised the sun moon and stars and when they come up against the fact that the majority of the spend in this country is on public sector and welfare they will find out just how hard it is to take away what has been given. So cutting will be very hard, then on the tax when they find out how low we enter the higher tax bracket and understand that raising taxes higher on people already paying over 50% of every Euro earned at such a low rate the law of diminishing returns will squarely kneecap them. The room for tax raises on income is at the lower end of the spectrum where people earning under a certain threshold pay little or nothing but these people are SF main base. It will be actually funny watching them in power to be honest. Similar to a Trump it will be a sh1tshow or like a dog chasing a car, they go at it fiercely to try and get the car and when they get it they have no clue what to do and usually end up getting squashed
Did you copy and paste your last paragraph from 2020
I love your optimism.0 -
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fliball123 wrote: »
This is the hundred billion dollar question. Some posters on here seem to think we have an abundance of supply, over 100k according to some. They are including properties that have succumbed to being abolished and not counted out as such, some are not habitable yet kept in the count, some were counted as empty when the census was done so included in the empties even do they are not, some are holiday homes so someone actually owns them and uses them so they are not part of supply and some are rooms over shops that some feel are worthy of being included in this count. Yet when the question of why the hell are they not up for sale or rent when we are experiencing a price rise in property or up for rent when rents are very high they have no answer except tax and legislation. Which I actually agree with when it comes to property being held by REITS and hedge funds, these companies can afford to lose profits now if they get more in the long run. But some think this wave of property will be hitting the market in the near future..Careful bring your umbrella it might be raining apartments and sheds soon
It’s actually the €200 Billion question
According to the RTÉ documentary in January 2017 called The Great Irish Sell-Off, the vulture funds “control 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans in the country”
To put that figure in perspective, Ires REIT only has a market cap of less than €1billion.
And that’s only what they bought between 2012 and 2016. God know how much they’ve bought or control since then.
It’s the elephant in the room that everyone seems to be ignoring. But once it wakes up, we won’t be able to ignore it IMO
It’s still on the RTÉ Player or you can read the Irish Times review of it here:
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.29315970 -
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PropQueries wrote: »It’s actually the €200 Billion question
According to the RTÉ documentary in January 2017 called The Great Irish Sell-Off, the vulture funds “control 90,000 mortgages AND €200 billion in property and business loans in the country”
To put that figure in perspective, Ires REIT only has a market cap of less than €1billion.
And that’s only what they bought between 2012 and 2016. God know how much they’ve bought or control since then.
It’s the elephant in the room that everyone seems to be ignoring. But once it wakes up, we won’t be able to ignore it IMO
It’s still on the RTÉ Player or you can read the Irish Times review of it here:
https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/the-great-irish-sell-off-turning-the-spotlight-on-ireland-s-vulture-capitalists-1.2931597
Surely this elephant will cause prices to go up as it lessens supply?0 -
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