2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

fliball123

awec wrote: »

Apparently there was some huge event in the UK the past few years which is going to have massive economic and social consequences going forward for them, did you hear anything about that?

Anyway, there is no point comparing the UK to us, though I'm sure you're aware of this. Their payout scheme was completely different, they were paying out 80% of people's wages up to a limit that was twice as high as anyone on our top rate of PUP (we were paying out less than minimum wage).

I am sure I seen a documentary advertised recently about the 400Billion the UK have gone in debt for Covid and who will pay ..

Anyway just checking it and it looks to be true just 2 of many links showing it.(below) Kind of puts our 30Billion being borrowed for covid in the happenny place they have borrowed almost twice what we will owe including what we borrowed for 08 Crash and Covid. So any comparison with the UK is not relevant, Brexit has and will continue to have a major impact for them over the next few years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-spending-idUSKBN2801HO

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/25/uk-unemployment-forecast-to-rise-gdp-to-fall

Also Veradkar has come out saying once again as recently as this weekend that they are projecting that we will be able to grow the economy enough that we wont need cuts or higher taxes. I am sure for the remainder of this government (how ever long that will be) I cant see there being higher taxes when public servants are getting pay rises (including the government themselves) as the optics of this would be terrible and would completely p1ss off the majority of FG and FF voting blocks. The next budget IMO will be a directional arrow as to how the government plan to pay the bill and that will all depend on the speed of a recovery (if there is one)

awec

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure I seen a documentary advertised recently about the 400Billion the UK have gone in debt for Covid and who will pay ..

Anyway just checking it and it looks to be true just 2 of many links showing it.(below) Kind of puts our 30Billion being borrowed for covid in the happenny place they have borrowed almost twice what we will owe including what we borrowed for 08 Crash and Covid. So any comparison with the UK is not relevant, Brexit has and will continue to have a major impact for them over the next few years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-spending-idUSKBN2801HO

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/25/uk-unemployment-forecast-to-rise-gdp-to-fall

You can't just compare raw figures either though, since both their population and economy is larger than ours. It's more nuanced.

My point was that the UK is on a totally different path now to the rest of Europe and pointing at them as being a bellweather for what Ireland is about to face is IMO disingenuous. Covid or no covid they were in for some pretty serious economic upheaval over the next few years as they have to come to terms with their new reality.

Rishi Sunak saying the Brits need to have a reckoning does not mean doom is impending for us or the EU.

fliball123

awec wrote: »

You can't just compare raw figures either though, since both their population and economy is larger than ours. It's more nuanced.

My point was that the UK is on a totally different path now to the rest of Europe and pointing at them as being a bellweather for what Ireland is about to face is IMO disingenuous. Covid or no covid they were in for some pretty serious economic upheaval over the next few years as they have to come to terms with their new reality.

Rishi Sunak saying the Brits need to have a reckoning does not mean doom is impending for us or the EU.

Very true and that was kind of my point in that you cant compare them with us at all. The UK are on their own and even if Ireland hit the skids they will always have the ECB as a lender of last resort.

Browney7

fliball123 wrote: »

I am sure I seen a documentary advertised recently about the 400Billion the UK have gone in debt for Covid and who will pay ..

Anyway just checking it and it looks to be true just 2 of many links showing it.(below) Kind of puts our 30Billion being borrowed for covid in the happenny place they have borrowed almost twice what we will owe including what we borrowed for 08 Crash and Covid. So any comparison with the UK is not relevant, Brexit has and will continue to have a major impact for them over the next few years.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-spending-idUSKBN2801HO

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2020/11/25/uk-unemployment-forecast-to-rise-gdp-to-fall

Also Veradkar has come out saying once again as recently as this weekend that they are projecting that we will be able to grow the economy enough that we wont need cuts or higher taxes. I am sure for the remainder of this government (how ever long that will be) I cant see there being higher taxes when public servants are getting pay rises (including the government themselves) as the optics of this would be terrible and would completely p1ss off the majority of FG and FF voting blocks. The next budget IMO will be a directional arrow as to how the government plan to pay the bill and that will all depend on the speed of a recovery (if there is one)

Don't follow your point on the UK? Their population is 10 times ours (roughly) so if our debt is going up by 30bn is it not fair to adjust their 400bn to 40bn when drawing inferences?

fliball123

Browney7 wrote: »

Don't follow your point on the UK? Their population is 10 times ours (roughly) so if our debt is going up by 30bn is it not fair to adjust their 400bn to 40bn when drawing inferences?

My point is the two countries cannot be compared (as props has been trying to tell us to look at the situation the UK are in as a kind of warning) They are on their own they have to balance the books as they no longer have the EU to back them up any longer, we do if the sh1t rains from the skies like it did back in 08 we have already got a proven mechanism in the ECB who will allow us to borrow if we need to. So I just think we cant compare the two countries at the moment as you pointed out their population , debt and access to European markets is completely different to ours.

PommieBast

decreds wrote: »

Huge brain drain on the way.

Certainly post-Covid I will be moving to London. Problem with Dublin is that the quality of housing does not reflect the asking prices.

Cyrus

PommieBast wrote: »

Certainly post-Covid I will be moving to London. Problem with Dublin is that the quality of housing does not reflect the asking prices.

curious to understand if you think that situation is different in london? in my experience its worse, with regard to the quality / value proposition.

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

My point is the two countries cannot be compared (as props has been trying to tell us to look at the situation the UK are in as a kind of warning) They are on their own they have to balance the books as they no longer have the EU to back them up any longer, we do if the sh1t rains from the skies like it did back in 08 we have already got a proven mechanism in the ECB who will allow us to borrow if we need to. So I just think we cant compare the two countries at the moment as you pointed out their population , debt and access to European markets is completely different to ours.

That cuts both ways. They have their own currency and autonomy and can do what they like.

Yes the ECB will have our back, but only up to the point that it is in collective interests of all member states.

The fall out from COVID will be interesting to see which way the Fed, Bank of England, ECB etc play interest rates and inflation. At the moment they're all singing from the same hymn sheet which is borrow more, print to pay for it. They're more concerned with fighting fires in their own backyards than what's going on elsewhere.

However when we get into recovery mode the ECB might face a situation where ramping up QE and keeping interest rates low is in the best interests of some member states eg Ireland, but not others eg Germany.

If we see a meaningful uptick in inflation, this will be a significant decision.

PommieBast

Cyrus wrote: »

curious to understand if you think that situation is different in london? in my experience its worse, with regard to the quality / value proposition.

Value is not in the equation. However thanks to travel restrictions I've spent a good portion of the last 8 months in the general London area and properties I've seen for sale are not run down like the majority of the ones I viewed in Dublin.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Offers already at €1.055m after a couple of days. Yikes!

at least it supports my assertion that it would have been worth north of 1.25m when extended and renovated

whether it will be worth the 1.5m itll now cost im not as sure.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

at least it supports my assertion that it would have been worth north of 1.25m when extended and renovated

whether it will be worth the 1.5m itll now cost im not as sure.

Yep - good call! When we realised that this went for €1.15m last year with half the garden sold off and east facing we knew no. 36 would way exceeding asking. When it seems like it's too good to be true...

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/66-albert-road-lower-sandycove-county-dublin/4451797

decreds

Nika Bolokov wrote: »

I think theres going to be a lot of people in a few months feeling very sorry for themselves when they realise they have grossly overpaid for houses they dont really like at all.

The one in Raheny posted a little while ago could cost 100k to 110k to renovate if a modern heating system and insulation is on your list, place would need to be gutted.

15k on a new kitchen, 6k on a new bathroom, new windows, new heating, insulation, labour to rip out old fittings, replastering, rewiring in parts im sure at least and top to bottom repainting, flooring etc.

Not much change out of 550k if you get it up to modern spec at that price with various fees etc.

Never mind if you want to put on an extension.

100%, nail on the head.


I'm in a watsapp group with friends i grew up with in Santry and links to myhome/daft and PPR are comical.


Without fail property is advertised as Glasnevin/Santry and sold when it's actually Ballymun or Finglas. We see the same in other areas e.g Edenmore/Raheny, Blanch/Castleknock, etc.


Most of the property being exchange now and within the past few years was purchased by the sellers for fractions of what they are getting now.


People purchasing at the moment and within the past few years are being taken to the cleaners.

Padre_Pio

decreds wrote: »

People purchasing at the moment and within the past few years are being taken to the cleaners.

I agree/disagree with this to an extent.

The people who bought 2006-2008 were also taken to the cleaners, but only those who bought the worst rat hole apartments are in neg equity now. Ireland looks on course for another boom bust cycle, though people have been predicting the bust for the last 5 years at least.

At the end of the day, people need to buy a house. Chances are, if they stay there more than 10 years, they'll be making money. No govt is going to change the cycle, they can't! Anyone who owns a home is happy out with the situation right now.

Sweet.Science

decreds wrote: »

100%, nail on the head.


I'm in a watsapp group with friends i grew up with in Santry and links to myhome/daft and PPR are comical.


Without fail property is advertised as Glasnevin/Santry and sold when it's actually Ballymun or Finglas. We see the same in other areas e.g Edenmore/Raheny, Blanch/Castleknock, etc.


Most of the property being exchange now and within the past few years was purchased by the sellers for fractions of what they are getting now.


People purchasing at the moment and within the past few years are being taken to the cleaners.

Of course most of the houses being bought now we're bought for fractions of the cost . Is that not obvious ? Older generations are dying

Once it isn't an investment and the repayments are affordable it doesn't really matter

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I wonder how many years prices can keep going up? Surely there has to be a limit as wages aren't going up even a quarter as fast.

Padre_Pio

MattS1 wrote: »

I wonder how many years prices can keep going up? Surely there has to be a limit as wages aren't going up even a quarter as fast.

Govt will probably come out and increase HTB to keep the party going.

Smiley11

MattS1 wrote: »

I wonder how many years prices can keep going up? Surely there has to be a limit as wages aren't going up even a quarter as fast.

The ferocity of bidding is definitely buoying current asking & selling prices. I'm no economist but I can't see this situation lasting too long. The 3.5 times cap won't change so unless people have massive deposits saved, which is quite possible in some instances, demand will have to ease at some price levels. I can't see any significant easing in the next couple of years but then again the property market is utterly unpredicatble so who knows?

PropQueries

According to Glenveagh’s 2020 results:

“The average selling price on its core units was €311,000, which was down from €321,000, reflecting the group’s focus on suburban starter-home schemes.”

So with Cairn Homes stating recently that their average selling price during 2020 being c. €350k, we are getting ballpark figures for what the bigger developers are building each of their units for.

And, it’s a lot less than what DCC, the SCSI etc. have been stating for the past few years.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/covid-driving-demand-for-three-and-four-bed-homes-glenveagh-1.4495744

The banks in Ireland reduced time for using mortgages from 12 months to 6 months
Other words if person who took the mortgage did not bought house in 6 months he will have start approval process from zero
All this says that banks supporting high prices and want give higher mortgages as much as possible
Other words property markets are not that strong if need that sort of intervention and property prices possibly reached the top
And as usual government does not care about it because as they usually says Market will adjust him self ( how this worked before we all know )

TheSheriff

Deleted User wrote: »

The banks in Ireland reduced time for using mortgages from 12 months to 6 months
Other words if person who took the mortgage did not bought house in 6 months he will have start approval process from zero
All this says that banks supporting high prices and want give higher mortgages as much as possible
Other words property markets are not that strong if need that sort of intervention and property prices possibly reached the top
And as usual government does not care about it because as they usually says Market will adjust him self ( how this worked before we all know )

Likely bank dependent ?... Was mortgage approved in 2019/2020 and had to renew after six months... With BOI. This was pre-Covid

Timing belt

<SNIP>

Padre_Pio

MattS1 wrote: »

I wonder how many years prices can keep going up? Surely there has to be a limit as wages aren't going up even a quarter as fast.

Are house prices increasing though?

Anyone with skin in the game says yes, but the CSO says no, based on the property price register.

We're seeing some stupid behaviour the last few months, but I doubt its widespread.

Nika Bolokov

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Are house prices increasing though?

Anyone with skin in the game says yes, but the CSO says no, based on the property price register.

We're seeing some stupid behaviour the last few months, but I doubt its widespread.

It'll be interesting to see if this becomes widespread or will it just be limited to a few desperados paying the guts of half a mil to live in Coolock.

Markitron

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Are house prices increasing though?

Anyone with skin in the game says yes, but the CSO says no, based on the property price register.

We're seeing some stupid behaviour the last few months, but I doubt its widespread.

When a dilapidated terraced house in Edenmore (with a BER rating that is the same as living outdoors) is going for 400k, something is definitely going on.

fago

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Are house prices increasing though?

Anyone with skin in the game says yes, but the CSO says no, based on the property price register.

We're seeing some stupid behaviour the last few months, but I doubt its widespread.

What I found interesting in the 2020 report is that 2nd hand places were basically flat (.2%), and the growth was being held up by new houses (2%).
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/newandexistingdwellings/

So, it would seem given the general commentary "there's very little supply, it's all mad" for the last Q of 2020 didn't get reflected in the PPR.

On the new homes, some possibilities:
- either the various government schemes have kept the prices artificially up and the lending limits are having less of an impact in new homes.
- people are more interested in higher energy rating/new home and are willing to pay a premium. And renovation costs are horrendous.
- new homes tend to be focused on the starter market at lower price point, and any increases in savings have a more direct impact in terms of a percentage increase

Marius34

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Are house prices increasing though?

Anyone with skin in the game says yes, but the CSO says no, based on the property price register.

We're seeing some stupid behaviour the last few months, but I doubt its widespread.

What you think yourself to which direction currently price are moving?

I have posted for previous 4 months, some stats extracted from PPR row data, about the start of the price increase. It's well correlated with delayed results from CSO. There are upwards Trends from around October/November on sold properties, thus that would be from around July/August for people bidding on properties.

PropQueries

fago wrote: »

What I found interesting in the 2020 report is that 2nd hand places were basically flat (.2%), and the growth was being held up by new houses (2%).
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexdecember2020/newandexistingdwellings/

So, it would seem given the general commentary "there's very little supply, it's all mad" for the last Q of 2020 didn't get reflected in the PPR.

On the new homes, some possibilities:
- either the various government schemes have kept the prices artificially up and the lending limits are having less of an impact in new homes.
- people are more interested in higher energy rating/new home and are willing to pay a premium. And renovation costs are horrendous.
- new homes tend to be focused on the starter market at lower price point, and any increases in savings have a more direct impact in terms of a percentage increase

Back in September 2020, the Irish Independent reported:

“It has emerged that a record four out 10 homes bought in July were accounted for by a combination of the State and cuckoo funds, institutional investors that buy to rent out the properties.”

Given that DCC believes it costs a minimum of €400k+ to just build a standard 3 bed semi (excl. land costs etc), they’re obviously paying well over the odds and probably driving up the “official” published price of what new build homes are really selling for.

What’s even more ridiculous is that Cairn Homes average selling price last year was c. €350k and Glenveagh’s average selling price was c. €311k, so the DCC figures are off the charts given the actual selling prices of the big developers.

Link to free to read article in Irish Independent here: https://independent.ie/business/personal-finance/home-prices-fall-as-state-and-cuckoos-swoop-on-market-39538530.html

Padre_Pio

Marius34 wrote: »

What you think yourself to which direction currently price are moving?

Going up, after going down for the last while.
I'm not saying everything is rosey, but it's not the boom again.

I think there's a lot of people who are dead set on buying, lockdown or no, and are prepared to pay a premium just to get a deal done.

We're seeing these exceptions and applying them to the market as a whole

Marius34

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Going up, after going down for the last while.
I'm not saying everything is rosey, but it's not the boom again.

I think there's a lot of people who are dead set on buying, lockdown or no, and are prepared to pay a premium just to get a deal done.

We're seeing these exceptions and applying them to the market as a whole

Yes, I think same that it's not the same boom as of Tigers times again.
It's difficult to say currently if its good or bad time to buy. But I understand why people are frustrated, and not willing to wait for end of lockdown. We definitely can't tell if there will be any better situation anytime soon.

Padre_Pio

Marius34 wrote: »

Yes, I think same that it's not a boom again this time.
It's difficult to say currently if its good or bad time to buy. But I understand why people are frustrated, and not willing to wait for end of lockdown. We definitely can't tell if there will be any better situation anytime soon.

I don't think it's ever possible to say this, at least not for the last 15 years.
In 2008, people we still betting that things were only going up, and in 2012, the bottom of the market, you'd never know if it was going to keep falling.
The market was meant to crash last year and it's as hot as ever. Who knows if this year, or next year, or the year after will be the peak.

The property market in this country has been f*cked for at least the last 20 years. If you got a good deal, it's more accident than design.