2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 6:05pm

schmittel wrote: »

Lived elsewhere in Ireland or in another city outside Ireland?

well given i am not from Dublin i have lived elsewhere in ireland, and i have also lived in a major asian city for a period as well as London. I travel back to both 4-5 times a year.

Which is besides the point as what i said was Dublin is streets ahead of any of the other cities in ireland.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 6:23pm

DataDude wrote: »

Clueless on fixer-uppers so was hoping I could source some experiences on here. I've looked all over the internet but get wild variations in estimates. Perhaps that's indicative of the fact that it's hard to estimate...but anyway:

Any thoughts on what it might cost to:

A) to retrofit this house (https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/36-albert-road-lower-glenageary-county-dublin/4485382) to B3 BER or better standard with nice modern finish (e.g. This level of internal quality fixtures/fittings https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/58-gledswood-park-clonskeagh-dublin-14/4484356)

Cost to extend by c.75m2 (if possible & subject to P.P.)

Would €150k - €200k for A and €200k - €250k for B sound about right or am I way off?

On a related point, when bidding on a fixer upper is it just up to you to have a fair idea of what it would cost to do up and just hope you don't get a surprise after the fact?
Or would it be possible to get a fairly reliable estimate before completing the sale? Assume you can't send out a tender on something you don't own but can you do something similar that you could place a strong reliance on?

Have heard horror stories from friends of costs escalating by huge amounts and am very keen to avoid if we do go down the fixer upper road.

for the same all in cost here are a few other options:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-ard-na-greine-eaton-brae-off-orwell-road-rathgar-dublin-6/4346079

looks like its single storey so it will feel bigger than the nominal size.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/52-ulverton-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-x243/4440891

this would need work but you would have a fine place at the end of it.

new build option in glenageary more for reference, i think these are 4 storey and gardens appear non existent unfortunately

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-paul-s-square-adelaide-road-glenageary-dublin/4407651

hometruths · 26-02-2021 6:37pm

Cyrus wrote: »

well given i am not from Dublin i have lived elsewhere in ireland, and i have also lived in a major asian city for a period as well as London. I travel back to both 4-5 times a year.

From experience I find that most of those people who say "London and Dublin are both capital cities, so they're comparable etc" have never actually lived in London. I just assumed this was the case with you.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 6:48pm

schmittel wrote: »

From experience I find that most of those people who say "London and Dublin are both capital cities, so they're comparable etc" have never actually lived in London. I just assumed this was the case with you.

I didn’t compare London to Dublin though. So you were pretty far off the mark.

There is also a massive premium to pay to live in London over Dublin .

hometruths · 26-02-2021 6:53pm

Cyrus wrote: »

I didn’t compare London to Dublin though. So you were pretty far off the mark.

There is also a massive premium to pay to live in London over Dublin .

Fair enough, I suppose that was my more polite way of saying my memory of most deluded people on Dublin's value being the capital in the last property bull market had never lived in London.

Villa05 · 26-02-2021 7:01pm

fliball123 wrote:

As for affordability I maintain property in IRELAND is affordable for the majority. Dublin is not and maybe some other areas with large population sizes like Cork maybe less affordable then say Rosscommon or Tipperary. Dublin is a capital city with the best infrastructure and attractions when compared to the rest of the country it has the main airport and currently houses about 1/5 of the total population. ergo its a place the majority would like to live in and as such there is a premium to be paid. Just like London, Paris, New York, Sydney, Rome, Brussels, Copenhagen, Madrid, Berlin the list goes on and on. Why should Dublin be any different and we need to get away from using Dublin metrics extrapolating it for the rest of the country and using it as a measure of Ireland's property prices being too high

If it is affordable for the majority why are 50% of rents and up to 100% of new builds subsidised by the taxpayer
Is it that they are too cheap and the state needs to make up the difference?

Dublin, Cork and Galway are too expensive and it appears that this is now leading to significant increases outside the main cities Does this trend sound familiar to you from our previous bubble?

Do continued government interventions that drive up price sound familiar
Does access to cheap finance sond familiar
Do low interest rates in what was a booming economy sound familiar

All contributers to the previous bubble and subsequent crash

hometruths · 26-02-2021 7:10pm

Villa05 wrote: »

If it is affordable for the majority why are 50% of rents and up to 100% of new builds subsidised by the taxpayer
Is it that they are too cheap and the state needs to make up the difference?

Dublin, Cork and Galway are too expensive and it appears that this is now leading to significant increases outside the main cities Does this trend sound familiar to you from our previous bubble?

Do continued government interventions that drive up price sound familiar
Does access to cheap finance sond familiar
Do low interest rates in what was a booming economy sound familiar

All contributers to the previous bubble and subsequent crash

Does fear of missing out sound familiar?!

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 7:12pm

schmittel wrote: »

Fair enough, I suppose that was my more polite way of saying my memory of most deluded people on Dublin's value being the capital in the last property bull market had never lived in London.

Again that’s fine but off the mark as it relates to me and what I said.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 7:17pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Again that’s fine but off the mark as it relates to me and what I said.

I have already said it was an assumption, so what's the problem?

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 7:19pm

schmittel wrote: »

Does fear of missing out sound familiar?!

It does, and that's the mass-psychology of the Irish housing market. All of this woudln't be so bad if one's life chances in Ireland weren't tied so intimately to owning a property. Growing old in the private rental sector here isn't a pretty picture. No security of tenure, getting chucked out on your ear as landlords sell-up whenever the property market is in flux, the encouragement of inappropriate housing stock, rental hikes above inflation - the list goes on.

Alternatives such as social housing, cost-rental, co-op housing or affordable housing generally frequently get decried as some sort of communistic conspiracy.

The same folks object to SF (as is your right) and "populism". Well, guess what, if you dislike SF and whatever you take to be populism, you should be hounding whatever public representatives you do support to get serious about housing quick, because the situation is creating a social pressure cooker, and they wont be able to keep a lid on it forever, and you'll get your populism anyway in doses you didn't bargain for.

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 7:29pm

schmittel wrote: »

I have already said it was an assumption, so what's the problem?

You keep clarifying yourself despite the fact it was completely off the mark, that’s the problem.

Say you were wrong and move on maybe ?

hometruths · 26-02-2021 7:43pm

Cyrus wrote: »

You keep clarifying yourself despite the fact it was completely off the mark, that’s the problem.

Say you were wrong and move on maybe ?

Well, the assumption that you had not lived in London, was based on a previous post of yours, and was not that far off the mark:

Cyrus wrote: »

anyway, i agree with you on your second point, i have a decent job here and was offered the chance to move to London, i reckoned that i would need to earn 3 times as much to have a similar house in a similar area and maintain the familys lifestyle. So Ireland will do for me

Now you say you have actually lived in London I am happy to say I was wrong in this assumption, and shall move on.

DataDude · 26-02-2021 7:45pm

Cyrus wrote: »

Glenageary house is nice, it backs onto that little industrial estate on albert road which may or may not bother you. also albert road is pretty busy not sure if that would bother you or not?

It is a great location though, proximite to the dart and to glasthule.

as to costs of renovating, i think 450k all in would get you the extra 75 sq/m and a decent level of finish overall on the whole property and you would have a fine house then, but youd need all of it, prices of renovations are scarey at the moment.

Ask some people getting it done if you can, to get an idea, you will also pay more because of where the house is, its not right but it does happen.

Thanks for responses. We just went up to have a look around and was very impressed with the house and area was lovely. Road definitely busier than we expected but don't think we'd use the cars a whole lot if we were there, so manageable.

We were concerned about the industrial estate for sure and it's bigger in person than it looked on the map. If we were to progress I'd be trying to find out whether it's singularly owned meaning a bigger chance of a Jonny Ronan type buying it out and going for a big apartment block or something (I'd have to join the NIMBY crowd!). Suspect the already busy road would be a major barrier to a new high density development though.

I have been in touch with a few people who've done renovations today. Mostly bigger jobs in bigger houses in very expensive areas and the costs were indeed eye watering. €450k seemed a reasonable scaled down estimate of their experience. Question I'd naturally ask is at the end of it, do you have a house worth €1.25m? I suspect not, but at least it'd be how you imagined it..

Cyrus wrote: »

for the same all in cost here are a few other options:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-ard-na-greine-eaton-brae-off-orwell-road-rathgar-dublin-6/4346079

looks like its single storey so it will feel bigger than the nominal size.

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/52-ulverton-road-dalkey-co-dublin-a96-x243/4440891

this would need work but you would have a fine place at the end of it.

new build option in glenageary more for reference, i think these are 4 storey and gardens appear non existent unfortunately

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/st-paul-s-square-adelaide-road-glenageary-dublin/4407651

Rathgar has just never really appealed to me personally, so wouldn't be willing to pay the premium to live there. Those one's in Ard na Greine started off at about €1.4m over a year ago and have been tumbling down for the last year. Must be seriously struggling to sell!

The St.Pauls ones are really nice inside but not a fan at all of the exterior. 4 story and no garden also means not much of a family home in my opinion.

Ulverton could be the "dream home" but at €1.3m prior to the few hundred thousand it would need to fix it up - a bridge too far sadly!

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 8:00pm

DataDude wrote: »

Thanks for responses. We just went up to have a look around and was very impressed with the house and area was lovely. Road definitely busier than we expected but don't think we'd use the cars a whole lot if we were there, so manageable.

We were concerned about the industrial estate for sure and it's bigger in person than it looked on the map. If we were to progress I'd be trying to find out whether it's singularly owned meaning a bigger chance of a Jonny Ronan type buying it out and going for a big apartment block or something (I'd have to join the NIMBY crowd!). Suspect the already busy road would be a major barrier to a new high density development though.

I have been in touch with a few people who've done renovations today. Mostly bigger jobs in bigger houses in very expensive areas and the costs were indeed eye watering. €450k seemed a reasonable scaled down estimate of their experience. Question I'd naturally ask is at the end of it, do you have a house worth €1.25m? I suspect not, but at least it'd be how you imagined it..

Rathgar has just never really appealed to me personally, so wouldn't be willing to pay the premium to live there. Those one's in Ard na Greine started off at about €1.4m over a year ago and have been tumbling down for the last year. Must be seriously struggling to sell!

The St.Pauls ones are really nice inside but not a fan at all of the exterior. 4 story and no garden also means not much of a family home in my opinion.

Ulverton could be the "dream home" but at €1.3m prior to the few hundred thousand it would need to fix it up - a bridge too far sadly!

To be honest I think if you have a detached renovated 200 sqm house on Albert road with a b3 ber it should be worth north of 1.25m.

MacronvFrugals · 26-02-2021 8:04pm

<SNIP>

Cyrus · 26-02-2021 8:18pm

schmittel wrote: »

Well, the assumption that you had not lived in London, was based on a previous post of yours, and was not that far off the mark:

Now you say you have actually lived in London I am happy to say I was wrong in this assumption, and shall move on.

Yes I did in my 20s , my current company has an office there and I have been offered a role both in London and Singapore in the last few years both places I lived when I was younger but not as appealing with small kids and the respective cost of maintaining the same lifestyle that I have here in either of those locations . Having lived in London I am aware of what a house in the areas I’d be interested in living in would cost.

Villa05 · 26-02-2021 9:06pm

schmittel wrote:

Does fear of missing out sound familiar?!

Missing out sounds a little unfair, the vast majority buy a home not an investment. The fear is of being priced out

Missing out plays in to the government's mantra that we were all at it after the last crash.
This is incorrect, some were but it was all driven by gov policy

decreds · 26-02-2021 9:58pm

combat14 wrote: »

rents are eye watering too.. alot of young people will be forced to leave here once pandemic is over

Huge brain drain on the way.

PropQueries · 26-02-2021 10:02pm

I guess now we have a bit of an insight into why DCC believes paying €400k+ for each of their social housing units is a steal.

According to the Irish Independent: “€400k budget to replace light at top of the Spire branded ‘absolutely startling’ by Dublin councillor.”

“Cllr Keith Connolly said he was amazed when he saw the figure, questioning how changing a light at the top of the Spire could cost the same as the price of a house in Dublin”.

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://independent.ie/news/400k-budget-to-replace-light-at-top-of-the-spire-branded-absolutely-startling-by-dublin-councillor-40136879.html

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 10:05pm

PropQueries wrote: »

I guess now we have a bit of an insight into why DCC believes paying €400k+ for each of their social housing units is a steal.

According to the Irish Times: “€400k budget to replace light at top of the Spire branded ‘absolutely startling’ by Dublin councillor.”

“Cllr Keith Connolly said he was amazed when he saw the figure, questioning how changing a light at the top of the Spire could cost the same as the price of a house in Dublin”.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://independent.ie/news/400k-budget-to-replace-light-at-top-of-the-spire-branded-absolutely-startling-by-dublin-councillor-40136879.html

Maintain the rage PropQueries. Good to see you post again.

The Irish property market is insane. Wait for the tax increases and the inevitable squeeze on multinationals with lower tax receipts.

Down down down, property will go.

Changing a light costs as much as a house. Both transactions are insane.

Most people in Dublin don't have a bob to spend. Some have lots and there are only a few houses on market being chased by those few with money.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 10:12pm

DataDude wrote: »

Thanks for responses. We just went up to have a look around and was very impressed with the house and area was lovely. Road definitely busier than we expected but don't think we'd use the cars a whole lot if we were there, so manageable.

We were concerned about the industrial estate for sure and it's bigger in person than it looked on the map. If we were to progress I'd be trying to find out whether it's singularly owned meaning a bigger chance of a Jonny Ronan type buying it out and going for a big apartment block or something (I'd have to join the NIMBY crowd!). Suspect the already busy road would be a major barrier to a new high density development though.

I have been in touch with a few people who've done renovations today. Mostly bigger jobs in bigger houses in very expensive areas and the costs were indeed eye watering. €450k seemed a reasonable scaled down estimate of their experience. Question I'd naturally ask is at the end of it, do you have a house worth €1.25m? I suspect not, but at least it'd be how you imagined it..

Rathgar has just never really appealed to me personally, so wouldn't be willing to pay the premium to live there. Those one's in Ard na Greine started off at about €1.4m over a year ago and have been tumbling down for the last year. Must be seriously struggling to sell!

The St.Pauls ones are really nice inside but not a fan at all of the exterior. 4 story and no garden also means not much of a family home in my opinion.

Ulverton could be the "dream home" but at €1.3m prior to the few hundred thousand it would need to fix it up - a bridge too far sadly!

If I was in your position - age and earnings - I'd be very tempted to stretch the budget and go for Ulverton if it is the dream home. Location is fantastic, and by the sounds of things you have friends and family in the area which will be worth a lot over the lifetime of the home.

My thinking would be to do it the old fashioned way and fix it up over a few years. It doesn't exactly look like a wreck as is, so perfectly habitable for now. Would you really need to spend a few hundred thousand?

Bit of an inconvenience to stretch out the renovations, but you'd forget about it fairly quick when you have the convenience of walking up the road to drop the little ones off with Granny on your way to the pub! (assuming Granny lives in Dalkey, but I may be wrong there!)

Your earnings are such that fixing it up bit by bit is not the normal saving up for a new boiler type of drama. You could blast a bit every year. Drop 50k on kitchens and bathrooms one year, redo all the windows the next etc.

All of the above really only applies if you have family in Dalkey, (which I may have jumped to conclusions on) - once you have kids etc, the value of having family close by is immense (assuming you get on with them!). There are other reasons I'd be tempted, but that is the main one.

combat14 · 26-02-2021 10:12pm

Gold prices book lowest close since June and steepest monthly drop in four years

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/gold-prices-head-for-4th-straight-drop-as-dollar-gains-add-to-bullions-woes-11614348809

looks like higher inflation is on the way, higher interest rates and increased cost for govt and tax payer to borrow money and pay our massive ballooning national debt...

fun times ahead ...

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 10:17pm

combat14 wrote: »

Gold prices book lowest close since June and steepest monthly drop in four years

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/gold-prices-head-for-4th-straight-drop-as-dollar-gains-add-to-bullions-woes-11614348809

looks like higher inflation is on the way, higher interest rates and increased cost for govt and tax payer to borrow money and pay our massive ballooning national debt...

fun times ahead ...

Can you imagine the implications of higher interest rates on his prices? They would tank savagely.

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 10:36pm

combat14 wrote: »

Gold prices book lowest close since June and steepest monthly drop in four years

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/gold-prices-head-for-4th-straight-drop-as-dollar-gains-add-to-bullions-woes-11614348809

looks like higher inflation is on the way, higher interest rates and increased cost for govt and tax payer to borrow money and pay our massive ballooning national debt...

fun times ahead ...

Interest rates will stay on the floor for the next half-decade or more.

The rulebook is out the window with government borrowing as well. The problem will be growth and how to get it. We'll be begging for inflation in the real economy (and not the asset economy).

Pelezico · 26-02-2021 10:42pm

Yurt! wrote: »

Interest rates will stay on the floor for the next half-decade or more.

The rulebook is out the window with government borrowing as well. The problem will be growth and how to get it. We'll be begging for inflation in the real economy (and not the asset economy).

The markets are saying different. Commodities have increased and all sorts of bottlenecks are happening.

Shipping container rates, oil, lumber, copper, silver among other things have rocketed. There will be inflation and it will cause serious erosion in living standards.

Hubertj · 26-02-2021 10:47pm

schmittel wrote: »

If I was in your position - age and earnings - I'd be very tempted to stretch the budget and go for Ulverton if it is the dream home. Location is fantastic, and by the sounds of things you have friends and family in the area which will be worth a lot over the lifetime of the home.

My thinking would be to do it the old fashioned way and fix it up over a few years. It doesn't exactly look like a wreck as is, so perfectly habitable for now. Would you really need to spend a few hundred thousand?

Bit of an inconvenience to stretch out the renovations, but you'd forget about it fairly quick when you have the convenience of walking up the road to drop the little ones off with Granny on your way to the pub! (assuming Granny lives in Dalkey, but I may be wrong there!)

Your earnings are such that fixing it up bit by bit is not the normal saving up for a new boiler type of drama. You could blast a bit every year. Drop 50k on kitchens and bathrooms one year, redo all the windows the next etc.

All of the above really only applies if you have family in Dalkey, (which I may have jumped to conclusions on) - once you have kids etc, the value of having family close by is immense (assuming you get on with them!). There are other reasons I'd be tempted, but that is the main one.

I would love a Georgian or Victorian house. Lived in an apartment on Pembroke road for a few years. High ceilings etc. However, single glazing makes it difficult to heat. I’m open to correction but if it’s a listed building not sure you can double glaze. Then there is bollo* about the type of slate to use on roof.
Having said that they have a lot of character, Aga in kitchen would be great....

Yurt2 · 26-02-2021 10:49pm

Pelezico wrote: »

The markets are saying different. Commodities have increased and all sorts of bottlenecks are happening.

Shipping container rates, oil, lumber, copper, silver among other things have rocketed. There will be inflation and it will cause serious erosion in living standards.

My read on the commodities super-cycle is it's cheap money desperately sticking to tier 1 commodities and short term yields, because it's certainly not based on industrial on consumer demand. Remember the funny business that went on with copper in the early part of the last decade, with off-market copper hoarding etc.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 10:49pm

Pelezico wrote: »

The markets are saying different. Commodities have increased and all sorts of bottlenecks are happening.

Shipping container rates, oil, lumber, copper, silver among other things have rocketed. There will be inflation and it will cause serious erosion in living standards.

Agreed. We're told there is no inflation because it is not showing up in the CPI yet, but it is sure as hell showing up everywhere else.

hometruths · 26-02-2021 10:55pm

Hubertj wrote: »

I would love a Georgian or Victorian house. Lived in an apartment on Pembroke road for a few years. High ceilings etc. However, single glazing makes it difficult to heat. I’m open to correction but if it’s a listed building not sure you can double glaze. Then there is bollo* about the type of slate to use on roof.
Having said that they have a lot of character, Aga in kitchen would be great....

I'd happily live in a listed building and put on another jumper!

PropQueries · 26-02-2021 11:07pm

schmittel wrote: »

Agreed. We're told there is no inflation because it is not showing up in the CPI yet, but it is sure as hell showing up everywhere else.

Even the Governor of the Irish Central Bank said back in September that “price inflation experienced by households may be higher than what is officially measured.”

What was interesting was that he also said that “the Central Bank last looked at the methods used in measuring inflation back in 2003 and that it intended to re-examine them in the light of Covid.”

Link to article on RTÉ here: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165123-central-bank-on-inflation/

2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

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2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1