2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

schmittel wrote: »

Did I say soon or did I say "at some stage"?



I know they will come to the market at some stage because they are not going to vanish into thin air.

Just maybe they are coming back to the market as we speak and other properties are becoming vacant and we always have a stock of vacant properties....just maybe that part of our property market works like the rest of the world.

schmittel wrote: »

I know with absolute certainty that the current framework of taxes and legislation will change in the future. Some of it will change in 2021. Some in 2022. Some in 2023 and so on and so on.

And that was the point I was replying to.

Given you have absolute certain you are you absolutely certain it will have an impact on the 2021 property market ?

schmittel wrote: »

Just maybe you didn't read, or understand, the point in question.



Vacancy is one reason. There are many others, precisely because our property market does not work like the rest of the world.

Just maybe.

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

schmittel wrote: »

They are not on the market for sale or rent at moment principally because of the current tax and legislative framework.

Could you please detail the tax and legislative framework elements that disuade or prevent these going to market? What you assert is too vague for me to establish precisely what you mean or allege.

schmittel wrote: »

The historic framework, current framework and future framework is already having an impact on the 2021 property market and will continue to do so. I am certain of that.

How is a future undefined framework impacting the current market ?

schmittel wrote: »

What part of what we're discussing makes no sense:

Your certainty that these properties will come to the market in the future , you have no way of knowing if they will or not or if the level will remain consistent.

And anyway it has no relevance to this thread .

Timing belt wrote: »

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

I think he/she believes every owner of a shop with unoccupied room above it, has a spare €30K to hand to refurbish those rooms to domestic habitation standards.

Not to mention that those without the cash would all be willing to take on debt and take a punt on financial viability of the exercise.

Would they not need planning permission?

Timing belt wrote: »

Just maybe we do have a housing crisis and you are wrong when you say we don’t....just maybe

We may have a "housing crisis", but we definitely don't have a "housing shortage".

Remember all those evictions and queues of people seeking rental accommodation between 2013 and 2016.

Suddenly, after the vulture funds completed their purchase of c. €200billion in loans between 2012 and 2016, the media coverage of the evictions and queues near enough stopped.

In fact, I've seen very little coverage in the media of queues of people seeking rental accommodation over the past 3 years.

On the other hand, I've seen lots of media coverage of vacant apartments all over Dublin. I've also travelled all over Ireland over the past 3 years and there's still nothing but empty houses all over Ireland.

The funds have more than likely now got through the paperwork of what they bought and their properties will be entering the market in bulk in the very near future, interest rate rises or no interest rate rises IMO

schmittel wrote: »

A lot of (most I suspect) buyers and sellers in 2021 will consider potential future tax/legislation changes and implications as part of the decision making criteria.

So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?

Cyrus wrote: »

So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?

I might actually be a bad example here because I have already factored in a change in tax and reduced my max budget for a house somewhat . Make spreadsheets for just about everything and have projected a 5% increase in marginal tax rate above €100k plus elimination of tax credits along with some other COVID related stuff e.g. no pay increases vs previously assumed 3% per annum in 2021 - 2023 and reduced bonus payment in those years.

I'm weird like that though and don't think I'm in anyway representative of most people. But it is crazy to me how people couldn't be worried about these things going forward. I guess if your income is lower then tax is unlikely to be an issue and your gross pay can only fall so much, but I strongly believe people on higher incomes need to be considering some "solidarity tax/USC 2.0". Not the Irish way though - "borrow as much as I can, get the house - payments? Will try to make them as best I can, but sure if I don't, they can't take the house anyway!"

EDIT - only read that post in isolation. Have now realized conversation wasn't really around personal taxation. Personally, I've lost all hope of any dramatic policy shifts in relation to housing from this government that would provide downward pressure on house prices. I think the opposite is more likely. I am kept awake at night at the possibility of this leading to a hard left government with subsequent policies affecting prices (and a lot of other things...). That prospect is both too far away and not certain enough to really impact my buying decisions today.

DataDude wrote: »

That prospect is both too far away and not certain enough to really impact my buying decisions today.

Indeed and I’d imagine most are the same .

schmittel wrote: »

Not sure if I can. What should I change it to?!

Kerry holiday home hunting?